Polytrack ability

[john del riccio]

It may be beneficial to review fridays PP's from KEE to see just how many horses that won or ran really well yesterday that had never set foor on Polytrack before. Friday truly was a clinic in this phenomenon. Many horses moved way up when they set foot on this surface. With all the discussion regarding the KEE surface and its surprises (check out Liftin's column in saturdays form, its great, it sounds like he is begging for that OLD speed favoring KEE we used to all complain about to come back).

My approach with this KEE surface is to look for races where a horse has shown MORE ability over Poly than dirt and see if it "fits" with todays conditions. If I am going to play a FTP (Firt-Time-Poly) horse, I need a bigger price than I would normally demand. I only found one playable race yesterday at KEE. Take a look at the 4th. On my ratings PATRICIA and FORMAL RUSH had their best ratings over POLY as opposed to dirt. PATRICIA had earned her ratings vs better competition and had more early speed so I was happy when she was let go at 5-1 and FORMAL RUSH was 9-5.

Almost every other race on the card had horses running big races that had either never raced on Poly or had only one effort a long time ago when they weren't in any kind of form anyway. It may be prudent to take a wait and see attitude before burning money. Just like turf racing or an off track, you never really know until a horse actually runs over the surface. Before the breeding advocates make the point that that is an angle worth mentioing, I will say that I agree but am still leary of putting as much weight on that as actual performance.

John

[Tom]

Poly is a close to the old days I will probably ever see. The days before Beyers were printed and I had them and most others didn't. When a top fig paid $10 instead of $4.20.

This is a new frontier for players. Poly will over opportunities that you can get in on early if you do your homework. Breeding, running styles, energy distribution, training tactics, riders......lots of keys to try.

BTW, anyone look at how many race the top 5 jockeys at KEE have won so far? Interesting stat. A few of those size "three hats" are suddenly wearing ten gallon hats when it comes knowing how to ride the poly.

This poly confusion is abso-friggin-lutley great stuff. :jump:

[Edward DeVere]

Interesting comment on the jockeys, Tom. People who think all riders are created alike should take note of where Leparoux and Prado were placing their horses early on the card of the very first day of the meet.

[Tom]

The idea that jockeys do not make a difference is ludicrous. The evidence is overwhelming. sure, they screw up sometimes, but you have to remember, watching a race inyour easy chair, or a replay is not the same thing as sitting on a thousand pound animal runnig full out along a metal rail. Head on shots are something they do not see.

When they repeatedly make the wrong decsion or right ones, that's how we should judge them. But when 5 jocks are winning over 70% of ALL races, those are the ones I want to watch and bet on.

[robert99]

Findings are exactly as per polytrack in UK.
Even though many horses are trained on polytrack it does not pay to overbet them until they are polytrack race proven. Same finding with jockies - there are a small set that seem to understand the nature of the track and its needs far better than their colleagues. They also have the courage / confidence not to follow the herd.

[fouroneone]

tom - its great to hear someone actually be proactive about handicapping the change to polytrack rather then the usual bitching and moaning we have heard from horseplayers for the last year or so.