Polytrack Breeder's Cup

[46zilzal]

2008 going to Anita. Might just pass the very first Breeder's cup since I went to Hollywood in 1984.

I can see it now, Euopeans winning just about the entire card since it will be Style over Substance.

The television coverage is crappy anyway. Those ESPN's just don't cut it.

[46zilzal]

interesting point of view which echo's mine.....

Yin without yang equals chaos
By STEVEN CRIST

NEW YORK - The announcement Thursday that the 2008 Breeders' Cup will
be run at Santa Anita over a synthetic track, coming just five days
after a bizarre running of the Blue Grass Stakes on Polytrack at
Keeneland, had to leave many a horseman and horseplayer wondering:
Will racing's championship races will be as peculiar and perplexing
as this season's final major Derby prep?

If so, racing as we know it will have changed so radically as to
become virtually unrecognizable. It is very unlikely, however, that
any of the 2008 Breeders' Cup races will look anything like the 2007
Blue Grass. The kind of racing going on at Keeneland these days is
not a necessary outcome of synthetic surfaces in general or even
Polytrack in particular. It is an unwelcome aberration that Keeneland
needs to address if it wants to retain its slogan of "Racing as it
was meant to be" while keeping a straight face.

No wonder Carl Nafzger, the trainer of Blue Grass runner-up Street
Sense, told Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman that this Blue Grass
has "got to go down as the stupidest Grade 1 race ever."

[DanG]

interesting point of view which echo's mine.....

Interesting yes and also narrow minded IMO.

I love Steve Crist, met him at GP and thanked him for his efforts at The Racing times but under a lie detector he rarely sees above the tall buildings in NY. Extremely provincial writer in addition to a very talented and well educated one.

[46zilzal]

Interesting yes and also narrow minded IMO.


Until proven otherwise Keeneland remains an oddball track. If it throws a huge wrench into the game, there is going to be a lot of noise.

Change, that is inevitable. This type of change? so far, too dramatic.

[DanG]

Until proven otherwise Keeneland remains an oddball track. If it throws a huge wrench into the game, there is going to be a lot of noise.

Change, that is inevitable. This type of change? so far, too dramatic.
Keeneland has ALWAYS been an oddball track.

Signed;

Sinister Minister

[46zilzal]

Keeneland has ALWAYS been an oddball track.

No way: inner Aqu, SA, FE, WO, HST, PHA, PEN and a ton of others had the same profile.

[DanG]

You can’t figure out a meet where front speed is not dominate.

Isn’t that really the issue here?

[kenwoodallpromos]

It is truly amazing to me how these oldies like Beyer, Crist, and other long-time media types continually support such traditional chaotic situations of racing such as no passing of medical records; no timing of runner-ups, no standard "length"; and constantly changing setting of race conditions, in light of constant reduction of starts per horse and live audiences. Now they are trashing the idea of 1 change in racing that already has resulted in fewer injuries and increased betting, based on a close finish in 1 race?
What is the purpose of weights, race conditions, qualifying races, and random post positions if not to try to produce competitive races?
If they only are interested in dullness or are too naive' to be expert enough to figure out why the close finish, they should just go buy some sasvings bonds and not try to pretend they are "experts" at anything involing horseracing.
This is the true reason for their trashing Polytrack: they fear losing their reputations as racing gurus if they cannot act like they know more than the newbies who will be coming in to watch more exciting races.
As I see on some political bumper stickers:
Lead or get out of the way!!

[46zilzal]

You can’t figure out a meet where front speed is not dominate.


Sure I can and the great thing about the way we wager today: multiple courses available, allows me to stay away from them.

To paraphrase William Quirin in Winning at the Races: Closers have three things working against them
1) they have nothing to do with the active pace
2) the rider has to make a "best guess" of when to move
3) traffic trouble can change the outcome.

I will stay up front where these are not a problem and remain at the courses where that is the standard. You are welcome to go after these intrinsic problems. Be my guest.

[Speed Figure]

I hope Santa Anita gets the same track that Hollywood has, it seems to play far better than polytrack does.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is the true reason for their trashing Polytrack: they fear losing their reputations as racing gurus if they cannot act like they know more than the newbies who will be coming in to watch more exciting races.

If you really think that having more competitive races (all races are ALREADY competitive before they open the gates, or else every favorite would be 1/10 on the board) is going to bring in newbies by the boatload, well, then all hope is lost for you....

In the words of a famous prophet -- "That ain't it...."

It's precisely men such as BEYER and CRIST who DO bring in NEWBIES by the boatload! BEYER's 'My $50,000 year...' was the first REAL handicapping book I ever read, and it brought me much deeper into the game than I had ever been prior....

We need more guys like Beyer and Crist, not more competitive races (although the latter certainly can't harm anything). The races are competitive already, or else we'd all be rich cashing our $2.10 tickets at a 100% clip....

Instead of dissing these guys because they are more famous than you, yet you think you know better, why not try and embrace what they are saying and add it to your own personal knowledge base.

There's a reason Beyer and Crist write what they do, and it's not because they fear the Beyer speed figure can't work on an artificial surface. Where did this silly notion start? Has anyone proven that the Beyer figs are less reliable on an artificial surface? It's amazing the conclusions some will jump to without thinking.

[Overlay]

To paraphrase William Quirin in Winning at the Races: Closers have three things working against them
1) they have nothing to do with the active pace
2) the rider has to make a "best guess" of when to move
3) traffic trouble can change the outcome.

As a reflection of that reasoning, Quirin included early speed as one of the components of his sprint mutiple-regression formula. (It wasn't included in his route formula, even though his speed-point data didn't draw any distinctions between sprints and routes as far as the predcitive effectiveness of speed points.)

I've been wondering whether the effect of Poly (at least at Keeneland, and possibly elsewhere) could be addressed by disregarding early speed altogether, while holding constant the other possible portions of the handicapping equation, such as condition, class, demonstrated overall speed on the Poly surface, and (especially under these new conditions) the skill of the jockey (which would have the net effect of increasing their influence in determining race outcomes and the winning chances of individual horses).

[rgustafson]

2008 going to Anita. Might just pass the very first Breeder's cup since I went to Hollywood in 1984.

I can see it now, Euopeans winning just about the entire card since it will be Style over Substance.

The television coverage is crappy anyway. Those ESPN's just don't cut it.

Your thoughts on passing the 2008 Breeders Cup are somewhat premature wouldn't you say. First of all, the title of your thread may prove incorrect as Santa Anita has not chosen what type of syntetic surface to install. Following that, after the surface has been installed, there will be roughly a full year of racing over it prior to the running of the Breeders Cup races.Never know, but you may have more insight at that time about what to do rather than making some claim about "style over substance" at this point in time.

[kev]

I agree why Is Steve jumping the gun on this? The new SA track might play fair. Just becasue the KEE track was playing to closers, what about the other tracks like this? I heard someone saying that HOL isn't like that, what about WO or TP? I though it all came down to keeping the horse safe Steve? What does Steve want all tracks to play to the front end horse? If you don't like it, you don't have to play that track. Did the trainers and owners stay away from KEE this year? After seeing what the track did in the fall.

[cj]

Keeneland is certainly the strangest of the new fake tracks. However, ALL of them so far are less kind to early speed on average. There are still days where speed is fine of course. I'm not saying that is a good or bad thing, just different.

[BillW]

Keeneland is certainly the strangest of the new fake tracks. However, ALL of them so far are less kind to early speed on average. There are still days where speed is fine of course. I'm not saying that is a good or bad thing, just different.

It will probably change even more as the tracks experiment and tweak it as learn more about it.

[46zilzal]

Keeneland is certainly the strangest of the new fake tracks. However, ALL of them so far are less kind to early speed on average. There are still days where speed is fine of course. .
Not Toronto...

[cj]

Woodbine included the way most handicapper's assess speed, by position. If you are talking energy or whatever you want to call it, sprints are virtually the same, though slightly slower early. Routes are not the same by any stretch.