LINK to the Woodside Associates ROTW

[john del riccio]

I would like to again invite the racing fans here at PACE ADVANTAGE to take a look at our Race Of The Week analysis. It is FREE. The Henry Kuck Ratings are included in our analysis in an effort to educate players on both the accuracy of the ratings and their application as it pertains to handicapping top quality races. Different types of races require a different handicapping approach and since the ROTW is always a stake race, a consistent means to handicapping these races will be shown. Good Luck, ask questions, and with a little luck, cash some tickets. The ROTW is the Lexington Stakes.


Click on the link below and a pdf file should open, if not you may need to upgrade your version of abobe acrobat. GOOD LUCK !

John Del Riccio
www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[bobphilo]

John,

You still have last Week's ROTW, (The Blue Grass) up instead of this weeks.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

Careful JOhn does have the hot hand, maybe he knows something we dont?

[john del riccio]

John,

You still have last Week's ROTW, (The Blue Grass) up instead of this weeks.

Bob

bob

see if your browser has it cashed or something, it looks OK to me.

good luck.

john

[BIG RED]

Works ok for me, opened right up

[bobphilo]

bob

see if your browser has it cashed or something, it looks OK to me.

good luck.

john

It came up OK today. Thanks, John.

Bob

[john del riccio]

It came up OK today. Thanks, John.

Bob

Good Luck....Bob...if that OP shipper had more going for him (works or poly experieince), I'd be jumping up and down about the 81 beyer in his last race has him as the slowest in the field which couldn't be further from the truth...

John

[bobphilo]

Belgravia really looks good to me. As John points out in his analysis, he was running as good or better figures as a 2Y0 than the others have as 3Y0's. Throw in 4 more months to mature, and he really stands out. Plus he loves Poly. The lay-off is a plus since Biancone has a 30% win rate with lay-off horses.

Too many others are very close to each other for the minor awards including Forty Grams, Soaring By, Joe Got Even, Moyer's Pond and Trust Your Luck, so I'm sticking with Belgravia to win and possibly place if price is right.

Bob

[john del riccio]

Belgravia really looks good to me. As John points out in his analysis, he was running as good or better figures as a 2Y0 than the others have as 3Y0's. Throw in 4 more months to mature, and he really stands out. Plus he loves Poly. The lay-off is a plus since Biancone has a 30% win rate with lay-off horses.

Too many others are very close to each other for the minor awards including Forty Grams, Soaring By, Joe Got Even, Moyer's Pond and Trust Your Luck, so I'm sticking with Belgravia to win and possibly place if price is right.

Bob

Bob,

I don't have a good feeling about Fourty Grams.

JOhn

[Edward DeVere]

It's hard to see how Belgravia will be much of a price.

[bobphilo]

It's hard to see how Belgravia will be much of a price.

He's 3-1 on the ML but will be a steal if he goes off at anything close to that. Probably won't be a big price, but a solid play for me. Looks like he'll be fun to root for too, which is a part of the return for me that's hard to quantify but adds to my value.

Bob

[Ron]

I'm gonna root for Lukas' last chance. ;)

[john del riccio]

I'm gonna root for Lukas' last chance. ;)

More Lukas ?:D

[bobphilo]

Belgravia really looks good to me. As John points out in his analysis, he was running as good or better figures as a 2Y0 than the others have as 3Y0's. Throw in 4 more months to mature, and he really stands out. Plus he loves Poly. The lay-off is a plus since Biancone has a 30% win rate with lay-off horses.

Too many others are very close to each other for the minor awards including Forty Grams, Soaring By, Joe Got Even, Moyer's Pond and Trust Your Luck, so I'm sticking with Belgravia to win and possibly place if price is right.

Bob

Just saw on "The Horseplayer" site that Biancone says Belgravia has not been "working up to snuff".
Hmmm. If true, this does complicate matters but the works look OK and Biancone could have been misquoted, using trainer-speak or is just wrong, so I still like Belgravia.
Just thougt I'd post the update.

Bob

[bobphilo]

I guess Biancone wasn't kidding when he said Belgravia wasn't working well. Ouch!! Should have read my own post. :bang:
I guess the "bias" didn't keep longshot Slew's Tizzy from going wire to wire.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I guess Biancone wasn't kidding when he said Belgravia wasn't working well. Ouch!! Should have read my own post. :bang:
I guess the "bias" didn't keep longshot Slew's Tizzy from going wire to wire.

Bob

Bob,

Thats the 2nd triple crown prep where a blinker change and a nice work moved one up. I think I could of done a better job with my pace analysis also.
Belgravia may have bled according to TVG.

John

[bobphilo]

Bob,

Thats the 2nd triple crown prep where a blinker change and a nice work moved one up. I think I could of done a better job with my pace analysis also.
Belgravia may have bled according to TVG.

John

John,
I think the pace scenarios at Keeneland will remain hard to predict as long as the trainers and riders remain confused over the supposed "bias".
Slew's Tizzy's trainer gave his jockey strict instructions to stay off the pace but the horse had more sense than his connections and went to an uncontested lead in reasonable fractions and never looked back.
There was definitely something wrong with Belgravia in the last 3/8's.

Bob

[Ron]

Wow, the two longest shots on the board take the first two spots. I wonder if these horses will show up in the Derby.

[bobphilo]

Wow, the two longest shots on the board take the first two spots. I wonder if these horses will show up in the Derby.

Slew Tizzy's trainer says he won't go to Derby on 2 weeks rest.

Bob

[Kelso]

the horse had more sense than his connections and went to an uncontested lead in reasonable fractions and never looked back.


I still don't understand why Teuflesberg's trainer didn't do this in the Bluegrass. Running a 48 first half might have given him enough daylight at the top of the stretch to hang on.

[Ron]

I still don't understand why Teuflesberg's trainer didn't do this in the Bluegrass. Running a 48 first half might have given him enough daylight at the top of the stretch to hang on.

Who knew, though? That's easy to say now. During the race I thought Prado was running a smart race. I think he only ended up a half length off the winner.

[bobphilo]

I still don't understand why Teuflesberg's trainer didn't do this in the Bluegrass. Running a 48 first half might have given him enough daylight at the top of the stretch to hang on.

Absolutely, Kelso. Teuflesberg has good natural speed and could have easily done the half in around 48 or 49 with little or no more energy required. Provided they would have let him get away with it (and there's a good chance they would due to fear of early pace), with a nice lead at the head of the stretch, the closers would have had to run the last quarter impossibly fast to catch him.
There are 2 probable reasons they didn't attempt this.
1) Traditional wisdom is that the more the front-runner slows the pace the better his chances - this is only true to a point, and with such extreme slow fractions, one reaches a point of diminishing returns.
2) The riders at Keeneland are so obsessed with the supposed anti-speed "bias" that they try to crawl as slowly as possible early to avoid fading in the stretch.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Bob,

Thats the 2nd triple crown prep where a blinker change and a nice work moved one up. I think I could of done a better job with my pace analysis also.
Belgravia may have bled according to TVG.

John

John,
I think both Slew's Tizzy and Starbase both illustrated a big move-up angle. When a horse runs a significantly improved pace figure in their last start (which may or not be accompanied by an improved final figure) they often jump up in their next start. Both of these horses showed this yesterday - as well as the top pace figures overall. Slew's Tizzy improved final figure also placed him only a point or 2 below the top contenders as well - after adjusting for the value of beaten lengths by distance.

Bob

[john del riccio]

John,
I think both Slew's Tizzy and Starbase both illustrated a big move-up angle. When a horse runs a significantly improved pace figure in their last start (which may or not be accompanied by an improved final figure) they often jump up in their next start. Both of these horses showed this yesterday - as well as the top pace figures overall. Slew's Tizzy improved final figure also placed him only a point or 2 below the top contenders as well - after adjusting for the value of beaten lengths by distance.

Bob

Bob,

I know hindsight is 20-20, but I think I didn't give Slew's Tizzy and Starbase
a little more warranted respect. The issue was Forty Grams breaking from the rail since I don't do figs for SUN, I didn't know if he moved up or regressed. My philosphy has ALWAYS been that three or more evenly matched speed horses dictates a closer will likley win. The keys there are "evenly matched" and "liklely". If I ignoreed Forty Grams last start, the top two horses had a 2-3 length pace edge on the entire field. Is that good enough for a wager ? Obviously not, but it certainly makes them alot more
appealing; I've kicked myself enough over this already....

Anyway, both those speed types had issues but they certainly had a pace edge on the field and if I haven't said it enough already, the LA Derby was the best prep and I think CQ, if he shows a strong work at 6f or longer at CD, is the horse to beat come Derby Day. Am I redboarding here ?? Maybe a little, but I am man enough to admit that I probably err'd with these two speed types. And as my mentor Henry used always say, "who can argue with 30-1 ?".

John

PS I would love to know from any pace handicapper out there if they thought Fourty Grams Pace rating in his last start was within 2 lengths of Slews Tizzy's last race.

[bobphilo]

PS I would love to know from any pace handicapper out there if they thought Fourty Grams Pace rating in his last start was within 2 lengths of Slews Tizzy's last race.

John,

I know how you feel. I guess I'm redboarding a bit too, but I've known about the improved pace angle for a long time but I just didn't take to time to apply it to this race. :bang:
Moss didn't have pace figures for Forty Grams' last race but Brisnet gave both Slew's Tizzy (109) and Starbase (111) sinificantly higher pace ratings than Forty Grams (93) in their last. Brisnet's scale is larger than yours, (they give 2 points per length) so the difference may not have been as big as they had it.

Bob

[john del riccio]

John,

I know how you feel. I guess I'm redboarding a bit too, but I've known about the improved pace angle for a long time but I just didn't take to time to apply it to this race. :bang:
Moss didn't have pace figures for Forty Grams' last race but Brisnet gave both Slew's Tizzy (109) and Starbase (111) sinificantly higher pace ratings than Forty Grams (93) in their last. Brisnet's scale is larger than yours, (they give 2 points per length) so the difference may not have been as big as they had it.

Bob

Bob,

There is a very clear edge, at least with my ratings, when there are only early pace setters with equal ability, they have an edge on the field statistically speaking. That needs to be qualified. If their best pace ratings are 2 or more lengths better than the others, AND they are likely to run to them (subjective), and they earned those pace ratings against quality competition (in this case it was obvious when you look at the class ratings), they have an edge. I did not know how to handle Fourty Grams, I didn't have a good feeling his last race was good but feelings aren't the way to make good bets.

Had I not assumed FG was a pace presence, it would have still been hard to look past Belgravia but the difference in their odds would have made it easier to spread the bet. With all of this said, the winner NEVER raced at KEE.....

John

[bobphilo]

Bob,

There is a very clear edge, at least with my ratings, when there are only early pace setters with equal ability, they have an edge on the field statistically speaking. That needs to be qualified. If their best pace ratings are 2 or more lengths better than the others, AND they are likely to run to them (subjective), and they earned those pace ratings against quality competition (in this case it was obvious when you look at the class ratings), they have an edge. I did not know how to handle Fourty Grams, I didn't have a good feeling his last race was good but feelings aren't the way to make good bets.

Had I not assumed FG was a pace presence, it would have still been hard to look past Belgravia but the difference in their odds would have made it easier to spread the bet. With all of this said, the winner NEVER raced at KEE.....

John

John,

Same here. I thought if Belgravia ran his race, they'd all be running for 2nd money anyway. There were just too many other horses that were too close for me to cover in the exotics even if I keyed him, so I just went with the win bet on Belgravia. Unfortunately something went wrong with him after 6 furlongs.

Bob

[john del riccio]

John,

I know how you feel. I guess I'm redboarding a bit too, but I've known about the improved pace angle for a long time but I just didn't take to time to apply it to this race. :bang:
Moss didn't have pace figures for Forty Grams' last race but Brisnet gave both Slew's Tizzy (109) and Starbase (111) sinificantly higher pace ratings than Forty Grams (93) in their last. Brisnet's scale is larger than yours, (they give 2 points per length) so the difference may not have been as big as they had it.

Bob

CJ,

What did your pace figs say for FG compared to ST & SB ?

JOhn

[Robert Fischer]

Bob,

Thats the 2nd triple crown prep where a blinker change and a nice work moved one up. I think I could of done a better job with my pace analysis also.
Belgravia may have bled according to TVG.

John
at least two or three nice ones John.

Blinkers OFF + Strong Work
----------------------------------------
Teuflesberg Southwest Stakes on the lead
Tiago Santa Anita Derby from off the pace
Slews Tizzy Lexington on the lead



Albarado knew the track was a little "faster".
Slews Tizzy is a big animal - These weren't great horses in the Lexington either - comparitively ST matches up well as far as horseflesh and physicality. We had a blinkers-off move with one of the best liftetime works for a horse that had not shown all of his cards yet. Add to that he was a good looking fella, and it is one of those races you are supposed to make a small wager.

The field of the lexington was pretty mediocre. I admit I had a strong negative prejudice vs Slews Tizzy because the horse won his maiden on an odd wet/fast version of the Turfway-AWT and had never ran that well prior, and then the connections threw him in over his head in the Risen Star and La Derby.

Starbase running second as well was a strong indicator of the track. Starbase is a Tale of the Cat with prior polytrack and should have been in the trifecta level, but was hard to put first or second.

No one from off the pace had much horse, the track was more speed friendly than it has been, and those who were not choked back early had a nice head start.

also - A fight broke out between Gomez and Forty Grams at the end of that one, even if Forty Grams is 100% sound I may hold that against him when he next runs.

[john del riccio]

at least two or three nice ones John.

Blinkers OFF + Strong Work
----------------------------------------
Teuflesberg Southwest Stakes on the lead
Tiago Santa Anita Derby from off the pace
Slews Tizzy Lexington on the lead



Albarado knew the track was a little "faster".
Slews Tizzy is a big animal - These weren't great horses in the Lexington either - comparitively ST matches up well as far as horseflesh and physicality. We had a blinkers-off move with one of the best liftetime works for a horse that had not shown all of his cards yet. Add to that he was a good looking fella, and it is one of those races you are supposed to make a small wager.

The field of the lexington was pretty mediocre. I admit I had a strong negative prejudice vs Slews Tizzy because the horse won his maiden on an odd wet/fast version of the Turfway-AWT and had never ran that well prior, and then the connections threw him in over his head in the Risen Star and La Derby.

Starbase running second as well was a strong indicator of the track. Starbase is a Tale of the Cat with prior polytrack and should have been in the trifecta level, but was hard to put first or second.

No one from off the pace had much horse, the track was more speed friendly than it has been, and those who were not choked back early had a nice head start.

also - A fight broke out between Gomez and Forty Grams at the end of that one, even if Forty Grams is 100% sound I may hold that against him when he next runs.

yes robert, i really am disappointed that i not only mis-judged then pace scenario but glossed over the blinkers off as well. lesson learned.

john