KYDERBY pQ Figs for STREET SENSE Last 4 Races, and BlueGrass pQ fig$ w/Trakus Data

[Robert Fischer]

Kentucky Derby Contender Report: STREET SENSE

Here are my figures for Street Sense's last four races. Also included here is an in-depth look at the Bluegrass Stakes using Trakus Data with my figures.

Pace Quality or pQ attempts to measure the pace of the primary contenders in a race at the pace call. This can be important in identifying a true race shape. pQ2 measures the pace of the primary contenders from the pace call to the the finish. The Bluegrass was a visually obvious example of a race that "came home fast". Figures are listed in feet/second velocity.

To download a larger clear image:
click red "FREE" box
Street Sense last 4 races Pace Quality Figures
http://www.internetfiles.org/download.php?id=qSfjyrDeMX40sFinEhFI
Blue Grass Pace Quality Figures using Trakus Data
http://www.internetfiles.org/download.php?id=o1rt80nLZU3783Iabosx

comments questions WELCOME

[Robert Fischer]

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/1866/streetcf2.th.png (http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/1866/streetcf2.png)
SS last 4


http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/6853/bluetraktrylj5.th.png (http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/6853/bluetraktrylj5.png)
BG w/ Trakus

[Robert Fischer]

Added individual velocity figures next to Race paceQuality figures.
Added Circular Quay


STREET SENSE
http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/2606/streetsensewithvelocityvy9.th.png (http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/2606/streetsensewithvelocityvy9.png)

Circular Quay :ThmbUp:
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/7418/circularquayng1.th.png (http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/7418/circularquayng1.png)

[mudnturf]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Kentucky Derby Contender Report: STREET SENSE

Here are my figures for Street Sense's last four races. Also included here is an in-depth look at the Bluegrass Stakes using Trakus Data with my figures.

__________________________________________________ ___________

Robert
When handicapping a TURF race, I disregard the runner's races on dirt.
Likewise, if handicapping a race on a FAST track, I disregard races in the SLOP or MUD.
In the case of Street Sense, I'm inclined to disregard his races on artificial surfaces, and his race in the slop.

[Robert Fischer]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Kentucky Derby Contender Report: STREET SENSE

Here are my figures for Street Sense's last four races. Also included here is an in-depth look at the Bluegrass Stakes using Trakus Data with my figures.

__________________________________________________ ___________

Robert
When handicapping a TURF race, I disregard the runner's races on dirt.
Likewise, if handicapping a race on a FAST track, I disregard races in the SLOP or MUD.
In the case of Street Sense, I'm inclined to disregard his races on artificial surfaces, and his race in the slop.

Dealing with surface issues is a tough thing. I actually like when surface issues arise, because you have an opportunity to gain an edge. There are times I just draw a line through them, and times when I try to to evaluate what kind of form this past race indicates. It helps if the horse has Previous Form over the various surfaces you are dealing with. It helps if you have an understanding of what the Pedigree of this animal indicates as far as surfaces. A third major factor- Running Style also is likely to give an indication of how favorably the horse fits with a specific surface.

With Street Sense on the Keeneland track - I believe that he does Not prefer the surface, and that dirt is his better surface. Be it pedigree, conformation, the tendancy of the pace set up etc... he has run better on dirt from the standpoint of observation or figures. IMO the bluegrass was a tough race with the surface(and contenders that prefer it) and the slow early paceQuality(hurts his late running style) for Street Sense, yet he came home fast and ran to his style which he can certainly carry forward to a 10f dirt race at Churchill.

[Robert Fischer]

CURLIN
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1387/curlinsm0.th.png (http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1387/curlinsm0.png)

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/6259/nobizfa3.th.png (http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/6259/nobizfa3.png)

SCAT DADDY
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5193/scatdaddyjq2.th.png (http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5193/scatdaddyjq2.png)

Questions Comments welcome. I will be posting more contenders and eventually a comprehensive list. Analysis of the figures and what they indicate as well if anyone is interested? A note on Curlin- 7furlong races use a 4f pace call.

[andicap]

I'm a bit confused.

You show the Bluegrass PQ as 52.23 or something like that, but on Street Sense's PQ page the Bluegrass is listed in his line as having a PQ of 51.35.

What am I missing here?

[Robert Fischer]

I'm a bit confused.

You show the Bluegrass PQ as 52.26 or something like that, but on Street Sense's PQ page the Bluegrass is listed in his line as having a PQ of 51.45.

What am I missing here?

Trakus vs Chart data

With the Bluegrass at Keeneland I was able to incorporate Trakus data.
The velocities and paceQuality figures reflect the actual distance covered by the horse. Velocity including groundloss. Trakus seems to only be available at Keeneland and Woodbine.

The standard velocities and paceQuality figures use a linear constant of 660 feet per furlong. They do not include groundloss. For easy comparison I use the standard linear data with Street Sense's paceQuality form card.


*updated cards with numbers rounded to two decimal places

Bluegrass w/Trakus data
http://img76.imageshack.us/img76/3684/bluetraktryls3.th.png (http://img76.imageshack.us/img76/3684/bluetraktryls3.png)

Street Sense form card linear chart data
http://img473.imageshack.us/img473/4224/streetxm8.th.png (http://img473.imageshack.us/img473/4224/streetxm8.png)

[46zilzal]

You AVERAGE the pace? my goodness is that a good chance to "blend out" distinctiveness. How does an AVERAGE tell you anything about the specific?

[cj]

The ground loss in the Blue Grass is completely worthless, and adding it to any calculations is crazy.

If PA and I decide to race 400 meters on a standard sized track and we walk the first 350 with PA on the inside and myself on the far outside, the ground loss I suffered will not change one bit how fast the last 50 meters are run. (By the way, I'm 1 to 10 in that race. :) )

[46zilzal]

Because the pace was so odd, and the trouble at the end did effect the result, ground lost would be theoretical at best.

[Robert Fischer]

You AVERAGE the pace? my goodness is that a good chance to "blend out" distinctiveness. How does an AVERAGE tell you anything about the specific?

pQ is a "race shape" figure

pQ is the average velocity of the Primary Contenders at the pace call. It is a Race-Figure and one of the benefits is a more accurate race shape. pQ is best utilized to compare races.
Also included in gold are the individual Horse-Velocities for specific horse comparison.

[Robert Fischer]

The ground loss in the Blue Grass is completely worthless, and adding it to any calculations is crazy.

If PA and I decide to race 400 meters on a standard sized track and we walk the first 350 with PA on the inside and myself on the far outside, the ground loss I suffered will not change one bit how fast the last 50 meters are run. (By the way, I'm 1 to 10 in that race. :) )

lol. Good point. The Trakus Data for the Bluegrass certainly didn't reveal any secrets. A 9 foot difference in distance probably isn't necessarily very signifcant in any race.
Over the course of a meet at Keeneland or Woodbine, there will be some races where groundloss is a big deal.

I do not include groundloss on my standard figures. (only the Bluegrass w/Trakus Data posted here contains groundloss)

[PaceAdvantage]

CJ...I've been working out on a treadmill the last three months, so you best be careful with your odds making here...

[cj]

CJ...I've been working out on a treadmill the last three months, so you best be careful with your odds making here...

Just drawing you out, letting you know I'm still alive!

[bobphilo]

lol. Good point. The Trakus Data for the Bluegrass certainly didn't reveal any secrets. A 9 foot difference in distance probably isn't necessarily very signifcant in any race.
Over the course of a meet at Keeneland or Woodbine, there will be some races where groundloss is a big deal.

I do not include groundloss on my standard figures. (only the Bluegrass w/Trakus Data posted here contains groundloss)

Robert,

I'm glad you incorporated the Trakus ground loss data. Of all the variables influencing a horse' s time/velocity (including pace, bumping, etc) ground loss is the most quantifiable, and thanks to Trakus, the most precise. Regardless of pace and trip factors, ground loss is a seperate variable.
If the number is insignificant than it won't overly affect your final figures. In the case of the Blue Grass where the winning margin was a nose, a 9 foot or 1 length difference in ground covered is significant and gives SS a more accurate and better and velocity figure.

Bob

[bobphilo]

pQ is a "race shape" figure

pQ is the average velocity of the Primary Contenders at the pace call. It is a Race-Figure and one of the benefits is a more accurate race shape. pQ is best utilized to compare races.
Also included in gold are the individual Horse-Velocities for specific horse comparison.

It seems that that your "average" of the pace and final velocities is much like the Sartin average and is not meant to be a literal average since the 2 segments you are averaging are not the same size.
By comparing the pace and late velocities you are getting an idea of "race shape", as you said. In addition by "averaging" the early and late velocities you are getting a better idea of a horse's performance than just a final time over the whole distance velocity, because it gives extra credit for the extra effort from an uneven pace trip. Adjusting for ground loss, when available, makes it all the more accurate.
The only criticism I would have is that it doesn't incorporate a variant, though you don't need this just to show race shape. A variant would make the velocity rating more accurate, however.
Thanks for sharing this.

Bob

[46zilzal]

Sartin averages? news to me and I have been using the programs since the mid 80's. Please explain where that notion comes from.

[bobphilo]

Sartin averages? news to me and I have been using the programs since the mid 80's. Please explain where that notion comes from.

I am no Sartin specialist but I was thinking of a couple of Sartin measurements similar to Robert's. One was really called Sustained Pace which was the average of the early and late fractions. The other was the average of the 3 fractions of in a 6F furlong sprint.
I'st late now but I'll try to find you more of an explanation when I'm awake. I'm sure you'll be more familiar with the details than me. If my memory is foggy, you can fill in the particulars or corrections

Bob

[46zilzal]

Average of a particular horse's segmental velocity (i.e. Fx, FW) but never an average of pace. Sp is the sum of 2nd call and 3rd fraction not an average.

[cj]

Robert,

I'm glad you incorporated the Trakus ground loss data. Of all the variables influencing a horse' s time/velocity (including pace, bumping, etc) ground loss is the most quantifiable, and thanks to Trakus, the most precise. Regardless of pace and trip factors, ground loss is a seperate variable.
If the number is insignificant than it won't overly affect your final figures. In the case of the Blue Grass where the winning margin was a nose, a 9 foot or 1 length difference in ground covered is significant and gives SS a more accurate and better and velocity figure.

Bob

I would disagree Bob. Obviously, my example was embellished to make a point. Still, if horses are losing grounding while expending very little effort, I just don't see any way that ground loss was significant and in this case would lead to distortion of the truth.

[cj]

Average of a particular horse's segmental velocity (i.e. Fx, FW) but never an average of pace. Sp is the sum of 2nd call and 3rd fraction not an average.

SP = (EP + Last Fraction) / 2, which would be an average of the two.

Sprint AP (Average Pace, doesn't the name say it all?) is (F1+F2+F3) / 3 , or the average of the fractions. It doesn't matter if you use time or velocity, it is measuring the same thing.

[46zilzal]

we have a very different definition of average no matter the math.
Average pace is no longer a part of the program.

[cj]

we have a very different definition of average no matter the math.
Average pace is no longer a part of the program.

If you add a set of numbers and divide by the number of addends, I'm pretty sure that is an average. How do you define it?

Further, SP is nothing more than AP with the final fraction averaged in an extra time, or (F1 + F2 + F3 + F3) / 4, in sprint races.

[46zilzal]

Not today

[JPinMaryland]

Perhaps tomorrow?

[cj]

Not today

You can't define average today?

If you mean the SP, what is it then? I could go look it up, but you could save me the time and just tell me.

[bobphilo]

SP = (EP + Last Fraction) / 2, which would be an average of the two.

Sprint AP (Average Pace, doesn't the name say it all?) is (F1+F2+F3) / 3 , or the average of the fractions. It doesn't matter if you use time or velocity, it is measuring the same thing.

Thanks, CJ.

Those were the measurement I was refering too. Straight from Brohamer's book "Modern Pace Handcapping"

Bob

[bobphilo]

I would disagree Bob. Obviously, my example was embellished to make a point. Still, if horses are losing grounding while expending very little effort, I just don't see any way that ground loss was significant and in this case would lead to distortion of the truth.

CJ,

You’re right in part. Ground loss has 2 effects. One is the extra distance that must be covered. The other is the effect of having to run faster to keep up to a fast pace around a turn. Beyer calls this “wide move into hot pace”.

You are correct in that a slow paced race like the Blue Grass, the second effect doesn’t occur. However the first does because the horse must still make up the ground regardless of the pace, and it affects the velocity ratings. Here are the velocities of SS and D with ground loss included for the pace and final times:

SS) 52.33--54.18

D ) 52.05--54.09

As you can see, the extra 9 feet do make a difference in these ratings that are measured in hundredths of feet per sec. Without incorporating ground loss D wins by a nose and has the same rating as SS. Any adjustment that reverses the order of finish (ratings-wise) is significant. It’s probably best to include the ground loss and see how it changes the velocity ratings and then determine if the difference is significant.

Bob

[cj]

I understand that Bob, and definitely agree about the part of changing finishing positions. Where we differ on this one race is that I think the ground loss occurred where it didn't matter, which is not often the case.

[Tom]

Actually, SP is (EP+F3)/2 in all my programs. But it is the same number relationally as EP+F3.

[Tom]

Sartin averages? news to me and I have been using the programs since the mid 80's. Please explain where that notion comes from.

AP, FW, both averages.

[Tom]

You can't define average today?



:lol::lol::lol:

We missed you!

[46zilzal]

AP, FW, both averages.
I suppose if you use them. AP is no longer part of the program....

Most of those in Brohamer have long since been altered.

[Tom]

Modified to a very small ( yet prosperous:ThmbUp:) group of people.
Most here who use velocity still use them as invented.
They are still very effective when used properly.
And they are still part of the Sartin legacy, which is a generality being used here.

You made it sound like they never existed.

[DanG]

I suppose if you use them. AP is no longer part of the program....

Part of “your” program perhaps, though you are frankly a little vague on the subject…They are still a part of many effective programs.

I’m sure this was covered, but isn’t Keeneland (Trakus & winning profile) providing a perfect test case in how ground loss can create distortions in ratings?

Most days at this meet if you gave significant additional credit for running wide you are kidding yourself. The exact opposite was true the majority of the time IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

Great Hunter
http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/1913/greathunteref5.th.png (http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/1913/greathunteref5.png)

DOMINICAN
http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/9330/dominicannc8.th.png (http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/9330/dominicannc8.png)




also been playing around with a power-formula and experimenting with adding variables like deceleration, pedigree and a variant.

[Tom]

I’m sure this was covered, but isn’t Keeneland (Trakus & winning profile) providing a perfect test case in how ground loss can create distortions in ratings?

Most days at this meet if you gave significant additional credit for running wide you are kidding yourself. The exact opposite was true the majority of the time IMO.

Excellent topic for a new thread......so I'll start one.;)

[Robert Fischer]

HARD SPUN
http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/352/hardspunxl7.th.png (http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/352/hardspunxl7.png)

TIAGO
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8840/tiagojc4.th.png (http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8840/tiagojc4.png)

[Robert Fischer]

attached are power ratings for some of the contenders.
Race Quality = a power rating using: paceQuality velocity figs, a variant factor, and a "seperation" factor.

Race Quality + Stamina = Race Quality applied to distance run , as well as a pedigree stamina factor.


http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.th.png (http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.png)

[Robert Fischer]

attached are power ratings for some of the contenders.
Race Quality = a power rating using: paceQuality velocity figs, a variant factor, and a "seperation" factor.

Race Quality + Stamina = Race Quality applied to distance run , as well as a pedigree stamina factor.


http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.th.png (http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/2027/kentuckyderbyfiguresiw9.png)


Hey Street Sense and then Hard Spun.

Wasn't meant to be be a selection necessarily but neat that it came out 1,2

[the_fat_man]

Hey Street Sense and then Hard Spun.

Wasn't meant to be be a selection necessarily but neat that it came out 1,2

yeah, but you didn't have the $18.80 winner of the 9th, on trip handicapping alone and the $87.00 DD. So, stop bragging, PUnk ;)

Seriously, I'd have never looked at that horse if you didn't mention Einstein was running in the War Room.

:ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

yeah, but you didn't have the $18.80 winner of the 9th, on trip handicapping alone and the $87.00 DD. So, stop bragging, PUnk ;)

Seriously, I'd have never looked at that horse if you didn't mention Einstein was running in the War Room.

:ThmbUp:

Lol!



Better Talk Now and Sky Conquerer where my 2 horses (minus the expert trip capping- see you in the war room or email before PREAKNESS DAY ) , only played the Derby but DAMN! I didn’t play the DD…



So I did ok with a few exactas and trifectas on the derby (yes I went to dinner… and left money on the table:bang: – a tip )

, and I spread out more than I needed to. I also only played 1 super ticket = 7 with 2,8 with 2,8,14 with 1,9,11,13,17 (all the horses with something “new”)I really didn’t bet ENOUGH

-wildandcrazyguy had to spoil… Check the fat chart on wildandcrazy’s (was it florida or laderby) – where he makes his own move independent of the race… didn’t like his stamina marks , Kaplan is a funny trainer

I should have taken down the super and normally I would have, a couple of missed opportunities but was a fun race. Have to watch Curlin and see what happened and who is the Preakness horse.

[the_fat_man]

Lol!



Better Talk Now and Sky Conquerer where my 2 horses (minus the expert trip capping- see you in the war room or email before PREAKNESS DAY ) , only played the Derby but DAMN! I didn’t play the DD…



So I did ok with a few exactas and trifectas on the derby (yes I went to dinner… and left money on the table:bang: – a tip )

, and I spread out more than I needed to. I also only played 1 super ticket = 7 with 2,8 with 2,8,14 with 1,9,11,13,17 (all the horses with something “new”)I really didn’t bet ENOUGH

-wildandcrazyguy had to spoil… Check the fat chart on wildandcrazy’s (was it florida or laderby) – where he makes his own move independent of the race… didn’t like his stamina marks , Kaplan is a funny trainer

I should have taken down the super and normally I would have, a couple of missed opportunities but was a fun race. Have to watch Curlin and see what happened and who is the Preakness horse.

Sky Conqueror went to his knees badly at the break and was wide throughout (he likes to run on the rail). By using him in the double with Curlin and SS, I basically stayed out of the Derby. If you watch the headon of his last race (against Showing Up and that other plug) you'll notice that he is so full of run before they hit the wire that the jock has to swing him out so that he doesn't collide with the horses ahead of him. This isn't evident in the regular shot and OF COURSE is only a mirage.

I didn't like Imawildandcrazyguy's race in the FD. No pattern there for me. Somebody had to run and he happened to be there.

The race is a mess. Look at the FatChart. It'll be a tripping nightmare.

They're all over HS in the other forum. They probably haven't realized yet that Flying First Class is headed to the PReakness (last I heard). Which means that HS won't have an easy lead. How easily he took the lead and controlled the race is a shocking indication of how poor quality the speed horses were in the race. Damn, Sedgefield actually was in the hunt. (I must admit, I used this guy under Curlin for a few $).

Nice picking, but the jury is still out in my book. A clear easy lead with no pressure and a free inside run with no trouble, don't exactly convince me.

[BIG RED]

HS went at a 46:01, how he lasted I don't get. I had him bet w/p, but when I seen the time, I almost tore them up.
Of course SS coming from 19th was impressive also, nice race.