BLUE GRASS-ARKANSAS BEYERS

[horseplayer7776]

93 for Blue Grass and 103 for Ark Derby.

[sjk]

Doesn't anyone else care about Kee 5?

[chickenhead]

Pure Star?

[sjk]

That's us.

Thanks R

[chickenhead]

Nice debut :ThmbUp:

[sjk]

Thanks for the good words.

[john del riccio]

93 for Blue Grass and 103 for Ark Derby.

There is no way the Blue Grass figure of 93 is right, it won't matter much in the next big race at CD because it should only be used for comparison when races are being run on Polytrack. Think about what this figure represents in absolute terms.... This becomes another GREAT betting opportunity at some point in the future for those coming out of this race because they will be left alone at the
windows.

John

[LemonSoupKid]

The whole issue with Beyers is that they are normalized for that surface and that day. Also, the race's 1/2 was in 51+change so it's not like it was a tough race, all the jocks were holding the horses back, so the race ultimately wasn't that fast although they all closed well. That's why this race is untelling ... it won't be like that in the Derby at all. Read Beyer's article, it's interesting.

LSK

[john del riccio]

The whole issue with Beyers is that they are normalized for that surface and that day. Also, the race's 1/2 was in 51+change so it's not like it was a tough race, all the jocks were holding the horses back, so the race ultimately wasn't that fast although they all closed well. That's why this race is untelling ... it won't be like that in the Derby at all. Read Beyer's article, it's interesting.

LSK

LSK,

Speed figures are not, and have never been, simply about raw time.
If they were, they would have disappeared long ago. There is no doubt in my mind that the figure is way too low and the pace of the race being slow doesn't mean that the overall race should be viewed as slow.

Thoroughbreds can only run so fast, and final times are affected significantly when the pace of the race is abnornmally slow. That is what happened in this case. The last 2 races on the card were (should have been for Beyer as well) broken out on my ratings. The Blue Grass was NOT an inferior race as the Beyer would lead you to beleive. Going into the derby, it makes no sense to make DIRECT comparisons using any Polytrack figure when the Derby is being run on the real stuff but the Blue Grass can certainly be used to detect improvments in form.

John

[kenwoodallpromos]

Let's see- was the old saying Beyers Speed figures makes the race, or "PACE makes the race"?

[46zilzal]

Let's say you are evaluating a team for the NCAA basketball March madness and they played their last game in someone's back yard on grass. That is how close the Blue Grass race would be to comparing to the Derby this year.

[chickenhead]

Speed figures are not, and have never been, simply about raw time.


But they are exclusively about final time, which in this case was very slow.


There is no doubt in my mind that the figure is way too low and the pace of the race being slow doesn't mean that the overall race should be viewed as slow.


The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low.

[john del riccio]

But they are exclusively about final time, which in this case was very slow.




The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low.

CH,

Some speed figures are exclusively about final time, others are not, the ones that are not are by far more accurate and accuracy is what speed figures are all about.

I am sure that anyone who is has ever seriously undertaken making variants would strongly disagree with "The race was slow due to the slow pace, rather than the track speed. The Speed Figure should be low". The reason is because when these horses run back vs. other competition, you will need to appraise their ability accurately. If they are running on POLY, you should be able to DIRECTLY compare figures (pace and variant) to assess the talent
of each as well as how the pace scenario will play out. If you can't do that, the figures are of no use. This discussion will play out when these horses
eventually run back on Polytrack at some point in time but to say that this race was as slow as Beyer has it, is just not accurate. The public will look at that figure at some point and bet accordingly, I will take advantage of that when the opportunity is presented to me.

John

[chickenhead]

WRONG WRONG WRONG. At least from my POV. You are making the case exactly as to why speed figures in a vacuum are of marginal utility, but speed figures coupled with pace figures are worth so much.

I really couldn't disagree with you more as to what a Beyer type speed figure is meant to measure. It most definitely should not be your guess as to how fast they could have ran under a different pace scenario, it should be how fast they ran under this one.

Again, that is just what I want in a figure, what works for me.

[chickenhead]

The reason is because when these horses run back vs. other competition, you will need to appraise their ability accurately.

Just to make sure you understand what I'm saying, this is where the pace fig comes in. A seperate pace fig gives the all important context to the speed fig. You are advocating basically mashing them both together, which is fine, but imo that is not a beyer type speed fig, that is a performance or power rating.

[john del riccio]

WRONG WRONG WRONG. At least from my POV. You are making the case exactly as to why speed figures in a vacuum are of marginal utility, but speed figures coupled with pace figures are worth so much.

I really couldn't disagree with you more as to what a Beyer type speed figure is meant to measure. It most definitely should not be your guess as to how fast they could have ran under a different pace scenario, it should be how fast they ran under this one.

Again, that is just what I want in a figure.

CH,

I am not sure how to read your statement of "but speed figures coupled with pace figures are worth so much.". I personally, think that analyzing a race without pace figures is quite difficult and will lead to many bad bets.
Speed figures, at least in my world, are not used in a vacuum. They are a tool, and very important tool, that helps me put into context what these horses ability, style, and how it matches with TODAYS competition under TODAYS conditions. Factors such as distance, surface, connections, etc. are never swept under the rug; they are all evaluated. BUT, for me, the process
inludes accurate ratings. There is no guessing, yes, sometimes, races need to be cut loose, but there is no guessing.

One thing you may have missed in this thread was that the last 2 races were
not compared to earlier races on the card because th etrack speed had changed. Four hours of rain will do that.... Keep an open mind, I always do.

John

[chickenhead]

sometimes, races need to be cut loose, but there is no guessing.

Broken out because of changing track speed, fine, but not because of pace.

[john del riccio]

Just to make sure you understand what I'm saying, this is where the pace fig comes in. A seperate pace fig gives the all important context to the speed fig. You are advocating basically mashing them both together, which is fine, but imo that is not a beyer type speed fig, that is a performance or power rating.

CH,

Let me clarify, I am not mashing pace and variant ratings togther. They are
inter-related and not mutually exclusive. My ratings are 3 distinct ratings; class, pace, and variant. However, the pace and variant ratings influnce each other in many ways. Its an interesting exercise, think about it some more.

John

[Robert Fischer]

The Beyer Speed Figure from my understanding are supposed to be the raw final time adjusted by considering the track weight (which beyer calls track variant).
He seems to make adjustments for class which isn't really my understanding and also at times will adjust a figure up or down to "where it should have been"...

The problem with using beyers on a race like the Bluegrass is that the early fractions of the group of horses were not significantly fast enough to promote a fast final time. 93 may even have been higher than his automated figure would have shown, not sure. This can happen when there is no significant quality horse on the pace as a winning threat. If a cheap horse had run a 22 second first quarter and Tueflesberg ran the same race as the bluegrass (far back of a 22 second pace), the final time would be the same. In turf races there are many times that the race will finish faster after the pace call then it begins. If the Bluegrass had a runner like Stormello who would have set an honest pace, the race would have been more conventional in terms of Beyer Figures.

[LemonSoupKid]

Look back and see what I wrote and it appears that nothing I have stated is incorrect. I'm not sure why anyone had beef with it.

Under softer early fractions the horses will do one of two things. They'll pick it up or they won't at the end. With quality horses, they'll have reserve and you'll see the type of finish we saw in the Bluegrass (with inordinate final fractions that are even less indicative of closing performances in the Derby).

Is there some optimal pace where a horse sits and gets a good enough start and doesn't use up that much energy so he can close? Of course.

What you aren't getting is that it IS about time within the context of how other horses had been running that day (variant) in the sample size that the track measurer believes is legitimate.

I can't use this BG Stakes as much of a predictor for the Derby. I won't be stupid as to write these guys off just because of the crazy race and surface, though, of course.

LSK

ps- I wanted to add as well that if you use closing fractions and energy at the end of the race as good indicators for the Derby, this is the last race you'd use, because they'll get nothing like that scenario in the Derby. Period.

[Edward DeVere]

In handicapping the Derby, who cares what figures a horse ran on Poly? Do you care what figures a horse ran on turf in analyzing the Derby?

I'm only interested in the Blue Grass as a conditioning effort and its affect on how the horses train on in the next three weeks.

I can't even compare Great Hunter's effort to last fall at Keeneland, as he only had one prep race and limited workouts before Saturday's race.

[JustRalph]

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070415/COLUMNISTS01/704150562/1037/SPORTS08

From the article:

"Do you really believe these Blue Grass horses can win Kentucky Derby 133 running the same race they ran yesterday?

Isn't trying to handicap horses coming off a two-turn race on Keeneland's Polytrack surface onto the dirt of Churchill Downs like trying to handicap a horse coming off a race on the moon? "


more at the link

[Bruddah]

This horse (Curlin) was never asked by Albarado. He "chirped" him with a under hand motion once, as the other horses came to him, with an 1/8th to run. Curlin responded by running the last 1/8th on his own in 11 and change.

I don't know if he has the foundation to win the Ky Derby, having run only 3 races and none as a two year old. But, he should be there at the end. I think only a bad post position draw or bad trip might keep this colt from breaking a key 125 yr old Derby Jinx.

Depending what happens at CD leading up to the Ky. Derby, this colt got my attention in the Ar. Derby and I will watch with great interest. If you get a chance, watch him on the key prep replays at BloodHorse.

[horseplayer7776]

john, could you explain to me in simple english why you are so sure that the bluegrass should be rated higher? are you saying that the track variant was slow?

[john del riccio]

john, could you explain to me in simple english why you are so sure that the bluegrass should be rated higher? are you saying that the track variant was slow?

Simple English :) ....

There was rain for almost the entire card. The track speed varied drastically throughout the course of the day. Using a single "variant" throught the course of the day will ultimately lead to wildly inaccurate figs. The last two races, SHOULD BE looked at as a subgroup and not compared to any of the other races on the card. They happened to be both at the same distace of 1 1/8, and the last race was an off the turfer; which over the Polytrack isn't the same as if it were the real stuff. The last race had some quality older mares in it so its not like there was no basis for a reasonable comparison. The pace was very slow for BOTH races, but nowhere near as slow as if you were to just look at the RAW time because the track speed had definitely changed and gotten slower; no doubts at all. The BLUE GRASS outperformed the final race on the card. I hope this clears it up, I am not attempting to write in an overly complicated manner; sometimes this subject can get pretty dicey.

John

[LemonSoupKid]

I understand what you are saying; it makes sense to me. The problem is that you don't have that much support backing you up (not saying you are wrong). The idea with the variant is obviously to use a small sample size (10 races or so) to be a decent judge of how fast the track was. Beyer et al have decided that that very sample size is OK and useful --- but from a statistical mind, it IS a small size. That being said, you are advocating using ONE race as the judge. That is dangerous --- but not necessarily incorrect. I just wanted to make that clear.

The last race was 52K class and slow fractions resulted in a time of 1:53 vs. 1:51. A big difference, but the class was a big difference too.

Bruddah, I've been on Curlin for a few races now and I've followed Albarado from his earliest days. Do you remember Bellamy Road's hand ride in the Wood for a 120 Beyer, though?

For many reasons, it's hard to determine what will happen. Anyone can do it, but I think if you take a horse that is less than 6-1 in the Derby you just don't care about value. It just doesn't make any sense.

Lemon Soup Kid

[john del riccio]

I understand what you are saying; it makes sense to me. The problem is that you don't have that much support backing you up (not saying you are wrong). The idea with the variant is obviously to use a small sample size (10 races or so) to be a decent judge of how fast the track was. Beyer et al have decided that that very sample size is OK and useful --- but from a statistical mind, it IS a small size. That being said, you are advocating using ONE race as the judge. That is dangerous --- but not necessarily incorrect. I just wanted to make that clear.

The last race was 52K class and slow fractions resulted in a time of 1:53 vs. 1:51. A big difference, but the class was a big difference too.

Lemon Soup Kid

LSK,

Having only one other race for comparison purposes is not a real issue. There are days when I need to make a variant for a race that was the only one run at that distance all day. This happens more often than you'd think and if your methodology can't handle that, your results will suffer. The support I have to back up what I am saying is related to the horses that ran; in BOTH of these races. If this wan't a Poly surface, race one would have been run over a wetfast surface and by the end of the day it would have degraded to good, then muddy. Then, the change in speed of the racing strip would have been easier to accept for the observers. I can say with utmost certainty that not a drop of rain need fall for the track to change speed during the course of a day. Sun, wind, temp, humidity, track maintenance, running over the surface, shadows, you name it, it affects the track speed. On this day, the rain obviously had alot to do with it and just because the track condition was listed as fast throught the day doesn't mean that it was the same for every race on the card. Once you accept this fact, the rest will be easier to also accept.

John

[chickenhead]

the fact they blasted home in 11 flat doesn't in any way make you think the pace tactics had much more to do with the final time than the speed of the track? Horses that run an honest pace on a heavy track don't finish like that. Horses that walk early finish like that.

The truth is, we really have no idea how fast or slow the track was, because the tactics of the jockeys were specifically designed to not test the track at all until the finish. But the finish was fast.

[Bruddah]

Bruddah, I've been on Curlin for a few races now and I've followed Albarado from his earliest days. Do you remember Bellamy Road's hand ride in the Wood for a 120 Beyer, though?

For many reasons, it's hard to determine what will happen. Anyone can do it, but I think if you take a horse that is less than 6-1 in the Derby you just don't care about value. It just doesn't make any sense

I definitely agree and he has several more important knocks. However. Curlin's 103 Beyer doesn't necessarily sapp the horse's energy like a 120 Beyer. Besides, this horse is on the improve and could run a 105+ Beyer for the Derby. If so, this horse will be tough to beat with a good post and clean trip. (JMHO) :)

[46zilzal]

[B]Bruddah, I've been on Curlin for a few races now and I've followed Albarado from his earliest days. Do you remember Bellamy Road's hand ride in the Wood for a 120 Beyer, though?


Bellamy Road had the track superintendent in his pocket for that one. The track gave him that inflated number which he could never repeat or come close to.

[jacob]

John:

I'm in agrrement with you.

First, the Keenland poly track runs a bias similar bias as that of turf surface.

Having said that, I think a smart trainer would approach it as if he would the same as that of a turf-to-dirt switch.

Thereby, each horse in the Blue Grass had its required prep1 1/8 mile ... but, what everyone's not mentioning as the fact the the first five came home in less than 12 seconds ... thus, making the Blue grass a potent stamina prep.

The only problem that I have with the Derby is the fact Pletcher occupies 20 percent of the Derby field ... but the way it looks this year ... he'll need them.

I'm looking at the two horses that have the most populated stamina wings in their dosage ... Nobiz Like Shobiz and Tiago.

Jacob

[LemonSoupKid]

Bruddah, you may be right, and I respect your position. I'm just wondering what the odds will be. He's a three year old --- he can absolutely improve. We'll see how they handle it all the way up. Again, odds odds odds are so important for analyzing value in this crazy race, where there'll be 20 starters.

46, There were many races on that card and the variant may have been off, but not by that much. It was a dominating performance, and even it's lowest possible value is WAY better than any performance by a horse this year, regardless of anyone "in his pocket".

LSK

[horseplayer7776]

John, according to the Polytrack company even with 2 inces of rain, the polytrack stays the same.

[46zilzal]

46, There were many races on that card and the variant may have been off, but not by that much. It was a dominating performance, and even it's lowest possible value is WAY better than any performance by a horse this year, regardless of anyone "in his pocket".

You keep believing that.......I know otherwise....after the third race on the card energy distributions of winning horses were two to three times over the standard deviation for early balance. The track was the reason for that Wood and was so far out of reality that Bellamy Road was a shoe in NOT to run at Churchill...

Also that observation was substantiated by about 6 other observers who use energy distribution as a handicapping tool. I did not notice it in a vacuum.

[46zilzal]

Went back to the website and quoted one of the comments of another observer:"I agree with some other listers - that AQU surface was insane on Wood day.I hate when track superintendants jack up a surface on a big racing day - not
quite sure what the point is."

[LemonSoupKid]

46, not saying you are incorrect, but if the track was so slow, then in race 8, the commonwealth breeders cup sprint, why did Silent Name run it in 1:21 and change? On the Wood undercard in 2005, Lost in the Fog won in 1:21 and change.

I'm trying to be fair here. That is the closest race to the Bluegrass and it doesn't seem to be so slow. I saw some other races on the card that were fast but you guys are talking up how fast the track was, how the 120 was ridiculous, and how a low measure of that is even too much ...

I just feel that you exaggeration is making you lose a bit of credibility.

[Tom]

Not to get off track here, buy 46, when you say you saw it changes, is that from your readouts of PPs or do you run races through the program during the day and look at raw energy distributions?
Being able to see changes before the crowd is always beneficial.

[46zilzal]

not slow fast or running sideways: distribution is what is happening there. Up-side-downium like Rocky and Bullwinkle.

[46zilzal]

We have a measurement called the early/late balance. One records standards for each distance/surface throughout the season to monitor bias.

The day of the Wood it was crazy positive (early) as compared to those standards. Keeneland it has been crazy negative (late). Both do not have anything to do with time: distribution.

[john del riccio]

John, according to the Polytrack company even with 2 inces of rain, the polytrack stays the same.

Horse,

I truly do not believe that the speed of any racing surface is not affected by environmental changes. It ALL matters: temp, moisture, sun, shadows, humitity, running over it, tractors, wind...its just not what reality has proven out over time. They can say what they want, its a marketing thing, not necessarily true in practice.

John

[john del riccio]

46, not saying you are incorrect, but if the track was so slow, then in race 8, the commonwealth breeders cup sprint, why did Silent Name run it in 1:21 and change? On the Wood undercard in 2005, Lost in the Fog won in 1:21 and change.

I'm trying to be fair here. That is the closest race to the Bluegrass and it doesn't seem to be so slow. I saw some other races on the card that were fast but you guys are talking up how fast the track was, how the 120 was ridiculous, and how a low measure of that is even too much ...

I just feel that you exaggeration is making you lose a bit of credibility.

LSK,

Be careful when comparing a 1 turn 7f race to a 2 turn 1 1/8 mi race. You will always get a distorted view. It is better for your discussion to look at the last race on Blue grass day as it was at the same distance.

John

[46zilzal]

Horse,

I truly do not believe that the speed of any racing surface is not affected by environmental changes. It ALL matters: temp, moisture, sun, shadows, humitity, running over it, tractors, wind...its just not what reality has proven out over time. They can say what they want, its a marketing thing, not necessarily true in practice.


RULE of thumb: when it is colder, the tracks favor the front even MORE SO. have for years. If that is not environmental I don't know what is

[LemonSoupKid]

I compared a Breeders Cup Sprint at 7furlongs at Keeneland with a graded 7f Sprint at Aqueduct. I didn't compare the 7f to 1 1/8m. Check my post again.

LSK

[john del riccio]

I compared a Breeders Cup Sprint at 7furlongs at Keeneland with a graded 7f Sprint at Aqueduct. I didn't compare the 7f to 1 1/8m. Check my post again.

LSK

My apologies.....old age kicking in a little to soon...:confused:

John

[Tom]

I get the feeling we are all talking about different things here?

Track speed
Track bias/Energy distribution
Track condition

An early bias doesn't neccessarily mean fast times, and fast times don't always mean early energy distribution.

[46zilzal]

An early bias doesn't neccessarily mean fast times, and fast times don't always mean early energy distribution.
mutally exclusive to one another...

[DirtTrack]

Since the last 1/8 was under 12 by 4 runners you can hardly blame the slow times and ratings on track conditions unless they had paved the home stretch :eek:

Obvious jocks and trainers were all trying to play the track bias for closers and no one wanted to make an early charge or take a big lead (not that anyone blames them - probably would have done the same)
Result was slow pace, times and ratings (even for polytrack)

Probably good idea to review this groups other races before the derby since it will actually have a pace and run nothing like the BG

[cj]

Since the last 1/8 was under 12 by 4 runners you can hardly blame the slow times and ratings on track conditions unless they had paved the home stretch :eek:


Actually, that is a very real possibility. It has to do with the sales and where the 2yos strut there stuff.

[DirtTrack]

Was at Oaklawn on the same day
If wanting to gripe on Beyers it seems Curlin supporters would have more of a stance than the BG group
Track was listed as Fast but after 2 days of heavy rain, completely overcast day with storms and more rain coming and going it was no where near a Fast Track:liar: Not to mention 40 degree weather and ever shifting 20+mph winds...

Seen Curlin live twice for the Rebel and Arkansas Derby - he is the real deal ;)
While Derby History may not be in his favor for not running as a 2yo and only having 3 races under his belt he appears every bit as good if not better than both Smarty and Alex
Please remember that a good part of the Derby jinxes of the 20th Century have been overcome in the 21st (Barbaro not running 5 weeks before Derby last year is a good example)

Will state here what I told one friend about Florida for March Madness and another about Curlin for Arkansas Derby:
DON'T THROW OUT THE WINNER BECAUSE YOU DON'T LIKE THE ODDS :cool:

[cj]

I knew Pulpit. Curlin is no Pulpit. We know how things turned out for him. It could be a lot uglier for Curlin.

Official track condition has zero to do with the Beyer figures.

[DirtTrack]

I knew Pulpit. Curlin is no Pulpit. We know how things turned out for him. It could be a lot uglier for Curlin.

Other than not running as 2yo's not really an even close comparison:
Pulpit got ran to death the month before the Derby and was challenged and even lost in Florida
Curlin won Maiden by 12 in early February
Purchased for 3.5 mil
Won Rebel around a 6 weeks later without being asked to run
Hand rode win in Arkansas Derby by 10 lengths

Bet what you want - I would gladly take your $$$ at the ticket window just like from my other friends in March Madness and @ Oaklawn :cool:

Do need 2nd, 3rd and 4th for the exotics though - any ideas???

[DirtTrack]

Official track condition has zero to do with the Beyer figures.

Sounds like you are just wanting to debate today :bang:

Beyer's do take track conditions in as a factor (Official, actual, whatever...) but think what you want

DRF, Brisnet and whoever else you get your form from will have the Ark.Derby listed as fast and a 103 Beyer.
Giving some inside info here that the track was soft, weather was terrible and the horse won a million $ race by 10 lengths without breaking a sweat.

Best Wishes and Good Luck :)

[Tom]

Theses are all the major preps, by 2 furlong increments and final fraction, adjsuted by Beyer variant. Gues which one is the Bluegrass! :eek:

[JPinMaryland]

wow that is hurting my eyes. :eek: