Poly-win-ar-itis

[46zilzal]

Thought this would happen. The Blue Grass, until proven otherwise, I contend, will be an aberration akin to grass specialists going ahead to the Churchill Downs dirt oval until one see is this very different surface (I call it upside-down-ium from the old Rocky and Bullwinkle show) routinely transfer to the regular dirt. I know that Turfway form has NOT transferred to other tracks and I have serious doubts that this one will either.

Let's see, but I will not hold my breath as the Keeneland track moves up late runners tremendously.

[Tom]

PRe-poly, many races were just too fast in terms of figs to be believes, now, too slow. All I can say about KEE is thanh GOD it doesn't run many dates. It is just a speed bump track in handicapping. I make it a rule, never to use KEE pace line, any surface, for any reason. Just a wacky track.

[john del riccio]

PRe-poly, many races were just too fast in terms of figs to be believes, now, too slow. All I can say about KEE is thanh GOD it doesn't run many dates. It is just a speed bump track in handicapping. I make it a rule, never to use KEE pace line, any surface, for any reason. Just a wacky track.

After calculating the figs for the KEE saturday card, I predict that the "automated"
approach to making figs will produce some truly bizzare variants for the day.
This was a very difficult day to analyze as the track speed appeared to vary
significantly throughout the course of the day and the pace of many races was
outside what would be expected. With that said, that race of the day has to go to SILENT NAME, he ran an incredible race. I bet him on BC day last year in the mile at 30-1 and was floored when he took the lead as I expected him to sit several lengths off the pace. He took to the Polytrack like a fish to water.

John

[JPinMaryland]

you know there is something wrong when Zanjero is pressing the pace :faint:

IT also should pose something of a quandry for Beyer fig makers, dont you think. I guess the idea is to compare the horses from different tracks relative to one another. You got a guy like Teuflsburg finishing near street sense something that might be hard to rationalize..

[chickenhead]

If Turf and Dirt got together and had a baby, what would it be called?

Durf or Tirt?

[Tom]

Turf + Dirt = TurD

[chickenhead]

:lol:

[DanG]

If Turf and Dirt got together and had a baby, what would it be called?

Durf or Tirt?
Tom: Turf + Dirt = TurD
That’s good T! :ThmbUp:

Frustrating at times yes, but from a gambling standpoint the offspring of Turf & Dirt = Opportunity…

[shanta]

PRe-poly, many races were just too fast in terms of figs to be believes, now, too slow. All I can say about KEE is thanh GOD it doesn't run many dates. It is just a speed bump track in handicapping. I make it a rule, never to use KEE pace line, any surface, for any reason. Just a wacky track.

Tom,
can't believe I am saying this but I wish they ran year round based on whats going on there.

Before poly - 40% winners wire to wire
this meet - 3% winners wire to wire

complete chaos and when that is present PRICE accompanies it.

My win % is DOWN almost 13 % at Kee but my R.O.I. is UP significantly and I am NOT picking horses based on odds.

Keeneland rocks :)

[46zilzal]

Still liked the Glackity 24 hours later.

[JustRalph]

I think it sucks. I didn't play it before they changed it. And I won't now. I attended a weekend there last fall, took a minor beating the first week they had poly. Tons of show horses on my tickets. But this race to see who can sit back longer than the others is a clusterf@ck when it comes to some races. I thought silent name was a great example of a jock taking advantage of the rest of them. The horse ran great, but the jock basically saw what had developed and went for it. I have seen lots of horses who have lost all chance by sitting back and getting a terrible trip.............much like turf racing......but with a different dynamic. It's like mixing a field full of dirt runners into every major turf race, and then make the field take to the mercy of whomever moves first. Unlike regular turf racing, when everybody usually rides the same style race................these guys don't know when to pull the trigger...........from race to race. I have to admit it makes for some nice prices.......but I can find better places for my money.

[john del riccio]

Tom,
can't believe I am saying this but I wish they ran year round based on whats going on there.

Before poly - 40% winners wire to wire
this meet - 3% winners wire to wire

complete chaos and when that is present PRICE accompanies it.

My win % is DOWN almost 13 % at Kee but my R.O.I. is UP significantly and I am NOT picking horses based on odds.

Keeneland rocks :)

We would have been debating if TUEFLESBURG would have wired them on a
normally speed biased surface (ala Sinister Minister). I for one am very glad that KEE is not that way anymore because it was pot luck most days.

JOhn

[BeatTheChalk]

Tom,
can't believe I am saying this but I wish they ran year round based on whats going on there.

Before poly - 40% winners wire to wire
this meet - 3% winners wire to wire

complete chaos and when that is present PRICE accompanies it.

My win % is DOWN almost 13 % at Kee but my R.O.I. is UP significantly and I am NOT picking horses based on odds.

Keeneland rocks :)

Psst .. May I inquire as to the method that you are using to obtain
such returns ? I will not tell another soul if u dont tell anyone that
I asked about it :bang:
( just kidding of course ) :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

I beg to differ: once you figure out a bias (either early or late) it is easier to predict.

[Faster]

There has got to be some common denominator behind the poly results, perhaps someone already figured it out and is keeping silent -- making the mint, needless to say.

[46zilzal]

New material, new maintainence requirements, WEATHER (a la Toronto where they are going to have to re-wax the stuff in May).......Too new to be standardized. Don't play Turfway or Holly, but Keeneland and Woodbine are "night and day" different.

[shanta]

Psst .. May I inquire as to the method that you are using to obtain
such returns ?

Yes
I look to the heavens above for guidance and then just try to beat the chalk
:)

[46zilzal]

Yes
I look to the heavens above for guidance and then just try to beat the chalk

well not really

[point given]

Dont ya think the powers that be at Keeneland could find something in the middle between the old track speed bias and the new closers bias ? Each surface is patently unfair to one style of runner.
I was watching ESPN for the races and the track president stated that they had expected to lose business due to the surface change when it was first installed for a couple of years, and possible lack of entries from trainers , this didnot happen though. The one reason he gave for the change though was the safety of the horses from breakdowns. and riders safety.
The predominant style of racing there now resembles the running of euro turf races , with horses going inexorably slow the first parts of the race until the top of the stretch when there is a sprint to the wire. This seems to be the plan of Keeneland, as they want to see a blanket charge to the wire. Not exactly easy to handicap a pace scenario in this type of race and probably the reason for Keeneland embracing the 50cent p4 and 10cent supers. Why not go to the 50cent trifecta ?
Another factor surface wise is the run down the backstretch, take a look at the head on replays, they are a minimum of 3-4 wide for the inner most horse. Can you say , Dead Rail ?
Probably one of the reasons for Street Sense loss in the Bluegrass. Calvin Bo- rail, interviewed on ESPN prerace, indicated that SS didnot need to run up the rail, it was just happenstance that in the BC and Tampa Derby that there was space there and he would have been stupid to go outside. Well, guess what, SS on the turn lost focus and gawked at the stands, then he tried to duck in to the rail 3 times in the stretch as Nafzger said, to lose by a nose. I'd guess that SS would have a work in company now and going wide around a workmate. Calvin was wrong. But in defense of both SS and GH, they were running in a paceless race where they were forced to race in an unfamiliar style of racing to them. Who would not agree that in a "normal" dirt race with pace a factor, that either horse wouldnot be 5-10 lengths the better of Teufelsberg ?? BTW, they mentioned on the show that Jamie Saunders and partners turned down $3 mil for T. who they bought for $9K. Curlin went for $3 mil as well, T or Curlin ? jamie when they were giving out brains, she thought they said trains and took the express !! Unbelievable ! Midnight Cry kept a small % of Curlin , Jamie, get a clue !

[DJofSD]

...DMR.

Bing will have to find new lyrics to the classic "Where the turf meets the surf at ol' Del Mar, Take a train, take a plane, take a car".

[Valuist]

All I know is I really miss that old track. My favorite track of all. No excuse for any student of biases not to have made money there.

As for the new stuff, its really brutal. The irony of the exciting Blue Grass finish is that for 8 1/2 furlongs, it was a painfully brutal race to watch. 26 second opening quarters? That's not racing.

One other issue for all of the runners from the Blue Grass; forget what the bounce theorists say; HARD, grueling preps get horses ready for the Derby, not walk-fests like we saw last weekend. Just another reason to fade Street Sense.

[bobphilo]

you know there is something wrong when Zanjero is pressing the pace :faint:

IT also should pose something of a quandry for Beyer fig makers, dont you think. I guess the idea is to compare the horses from different tracks relative to one another. You got a guy like Teuflsburg finishing near street sense something that might be hard to rationalize..

The way the race was run, it was basically a 3 furlong dash with Teuflesberg having a head start, so it's no surprise that he could finish close to Street Sense.
In one of his books, Beyer says that he has to use the 6 1/2 furlong beaten lengths formula to calculate his turf route figures because of the close finishes. A friend of mine in South Africa, where they don't have fractional timing, sometimes uses the closeness of the finish as an indicator of pace.

With these extreme pace scenarios where the pace and final times vary so much from race to race like in Europe, the figure makers may have to switch to a Timeform methodology and break each race lose as a seperate event - something I think John at Woodside is doing already. Beyer and T-Graph also do it on occasion.

Bob