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View Full Version : Blue Grass & memo to Carl Nafzger


NY BRED
04-15-2007, 08:11 AM
I'm uncertain if the name of this race refers to what the majority of jocks were
smoking prior to this race, but the fractions set by Teufelsberg in a relatively
paceless race amazed me.

Regardless, this is the first race SS entered the stretch in the 5 path rather than the rail and, aside from the loss of path due to a tiring Teufelsberg
proved he may be vulnerable in the Derby, especially if he draws an
outside post.

It is quite posssible the winner benefited from a race over the poly track, but
Dominican clearly proved he fits in the Derby and is in a tremendous
form cycle.


While it is probably too late to consider blinkers, I think Tagg's tactics
s/b considered based upon the performance of SS on Saturday.

46zilzal
04-15-2007, 11:04 AM
Ever hear of sample error? One race. Heard all this same stuff after the Wood Memorial in 1973.

JustRalph
04-15-2007, 01:07 PM
I said to myself after watching the bluegrass.......

"self, this race sheds no light on Kentucky, not with those fractions"

I throw it out completely

NY BRED
04-15-2007, 01:47 PM
hi RALPH and 46


While I truly felt SS was the horse to beat, after watching the Wood and
the struggle of Any Given Saturday I felt SS might be vulnerable
(who incidentally I saved with in the 2nd KY derby pool)

I figured the connections would not pull the trigger in this race
which clearly wasn't the case, and while I don't doubt the ability of the horse,
I question his chances in the derby if he draws an outside post as his
best rides/only great rides are from the 1-2 path.


At odds of 2-1/3-1 for SS I'll be looking at a pace horse to beat
the fav, especially if the race happens to be run on an off track.

46zilzal
04-15-2007, 02:09 PM
Nafzger did not "pull the trigger" with Unbridled either.

kenwoodallpromos
04-15-2007, 02:16 PM
Why would the lower odds connections (or the $9,000 early leader) try to force early speed and possibly burn out in the end, when the show horse earned less than $40,000.00 purse in a 7 horse race? Win and Place is the real profit in this race considering expenses.

Robert Fischer
04-15-2007, 02:37 PM
Street Sense did go wide in the Kee Futurity as well.

Great workout. It looked just like one of his works, just over a training surface, and in company. You had to figure he would go wide again with the bunched up finishes and wide winners at Keeneland.
Couldn't have set it up any better on a drawing Board. A surface specialist to test him from the rear, and a group of nice 3yo galloping out 6 furlongs and then finishing well. Great race to carry form forward. Now they want to run the same race at a 10 furlongs on the dirt at CD.

Edward DeVere
04-15-2007, 04:10 PM
If Curlin's in the starting gate, there's no way Street Sense goes off at 3-1 or lower.

JustRalph
04-15-2007, 05:25 PM
If Curlin's in the starting gate, there's no way Street Sense goes off at 3-1 or lower.


I think he could be around 2-1, but not much less. I could see them both being around 2-1.

But there is still time for lots of press. The press over the next few weeks can shape the odds big time.

witchdoctor
04-15-2007, 05:29 PM
This year's Bluegrass reminded me of the Bluegrass when Thunder Gulch ran second or third. I feel this race is a throw out.

NY BRED
04-15-2007, 07:31 PM
I love Mr. Nafzger, and I truly hope he gets in the winners circle on
derby day.

From a betting standpoint, I'll be using his horse only at odds greater thatn 3-1
(doubtful) and toss if he draws past the eight post.


That said, this derby will prove to be one of the more interesting betting
events, and I would take a strong position against any of these entrants being a Triple Crown winner simply based upon the last month of derby preps.

Valuist
04-18-2007, 08:19 AM
I'm uncertain if the name of this race refers to what the majority of jocks were
smoking prior to this race, but the fractions set by Teufelsberg in a relatively
paceless race amazed me.

Regardless, this is the first race SS entered the stretch in the 5 path rather than the rail and, aside from the loss of path due to a tiring Teufelsberg
proved he may be vulnerable in the Derby, especially if he draws an
outside post.

It is quite posssible the winner benefited from a race over the poly track, but
Dominican clearly proved he fits in the Derby and is in a tremendous
form cycle.


While it is probably too late to consider blinkers, I think Tagg's tactics
s/b considered based upon the performance of SS on Saturday.

Street Sense was about 5 wide for most of the Futurity at Keeneland last fall. He ran a tremendous race to be third that day, only beaten about 1 1/2 lengths.

Valuist
04-18-2007, 08:22 AM
I think he could be around 2-1, but not much less. I could see them both being around 2-1.

But there is still time for lots of press. The press over the next few weeks can shape the odds big time.

There's no way both will be around 2-1. Possibly 3-1 each but they might need some defections to get even that low. The Derby can have 20 betting interests so its almost impossible to have two horses that low unless everyone else was 30-1 or so,

OTM Al
04-18-2007, 09:48 AM
If they go co-favorite it will be around 4-1 ala Smarty and Lionheart in 2004. Can't imagine it being much lower than that.

rastajenk
04-18-2007, 10:39 AM
I was going to say 5-1, but I could buy into Al's 4-1. This is hardly a two-horse race. You know Nobiz will take a lot of money, the Pletchers will help spread it around, the Tiago sideshow will take a big beating from all those hundreds of thousands of people that "had" the 50-1 shot two years back ( :p ) . Lot of forces out there to drive the price up.

kenwoodallpromos
04-18-2007, 01:07 PM
FYI-
"At 2-1, Fusaichi Pegasus became the first favorite since Spectacular Bid in 1979 to win the Run for the Roses. (***and none since!)

“I love challenges,” Sekiguchi said. “I love breaking records and setting new records.”

Breaking from post 15, Fusaichi Pegasus ****dropped more than 13 lengths off the pace before steadily advancing along the rail on the backstretch. At the quarter pole, Desormeaux swung Fusaichi Pegasus ***seven-wide, and the bay colt charged past the leaders under a vigorous hand ride, finishing in 2:01. It is tied for the sixth-fastest Derby in history. Aptitude gallantly chased the winner home to finish second, four lengths ahead of late-closing Impeachment.