The KenPletcher Derby

[john del riccio]

This has got to be history in the making...he could have 1/2 the field. If DEADLY DEALER handles 2 turns and the added distance you can certainly add him to the list. He has improved by huge amounts in each of his 3 starts and he has the gas to make things interesting on the front end. The sub-plot of the Oaklawn Derby is whether Pletchers former mentor has FLYING FIRST CLASS on a suicide mission early because if those two hook up the fractions are going to be out of control. CURLIN is a nice colt too and would benefit from an all out pace war.

Lots of good racing today; can hardly wait.

JOhn

[Robert Fischer]

Pletcher certainly has dominated these preps.


Pretty sure that Flying First Class isn't even up to the level of this prep race. He could offer a little pace, but Deadly Dealer should out-last FFC.

Dealer-One of my bet against- is a horse who has led at every call in every race at sprint distances, today stepping up in class and going 9 furlongs. It helps if he has run some very fast times especially with a nice beyer and has some hype. Normally this scenario would signal a wagering opportunity, but three factors here -
1. Curlin will be the favorite, not this horse
2. Todd Pletcher is less "reliable"
3. while Pedigree shows a sprint orientation with some hope for distance in the right situations.

[JPinMaryland]

I dont understand why Curlin being favorite mitigates these other factors that tell you to bet on Deadly. And what makes Pletcher less reliable?

[Robert Fischer]

I dont understand why Curlin being favorite mitigates these other factors that tell you to bet on Deadly. And what makes Pletcher less reliable?

Normally a horse like Deadly Deadly dealer goes off on or near the favorite. If that were the case for this bet-against scenario, the market will be inneficient and at least one pool will have nice overlays. With Curlin likely to get a ton of money you aren't getting a big overlay from opposing Dealer.
Most trainers would be a complete toss if they bring an un-rateable animal up to 9f in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher is so successful that you have to question everything.

[JPinMaryland]

Oh okay, I see that about the favorite, but cant you just leverage your hunch by substituting say Officer Rocket in the 2nd position in exotics? :jump:

[Robert Fischer]

Deadly Dealer ended up taking a lot of win pool money as a huge underlay at 2.20-1, but he ruined the value of the trifecta and superfecta pools.
The exacta was nice because Storm in May was overlooked by the public so it happened to pay well.
I don't trust a Pletcher trained horse to finish out of the trifecta even when it should on paper.

[point given]

Deadly Dealer ended up taking a lot of win pool money as a huge underlay at 2.20-1, but he ruined the value of the trifecta and superfecta pools.
The exacta was nice because Storm in May was overlooked by the public so it happened to pay well.
I don't trust a Pletcher trained horse to finish out of the trifecta even when it should on paper.

That damned pletcher, caught the super for dime, $39. ( all i had left ! ) the value was killed if DD runs in the $, even with a 30/1 shot 2nd, as you said. I had alot covered for a measely $8. and was dreaming of getting out on a dime super ha ! Would have been better off with the ex or tri as it turned out. I've had some luck in the past using chalk on top and keying a ls or two second and third with a few, made a few bucks but the pletcher factor raises its ugly head again.