STREET SENSE

[john del riccio]

I wonder if this colt is going to run in this race as a paid workout....
This scenario has been knawing at me since I handicapped the Blue Grass as the Race of The Week. Why in the world would he be cranked up to run a big one ?Unless he is just an "old-school" iron horse that shows up and takes it to you each time he sets foot on the track (in which case he is gonna take some beating), he may offer value else where. DOMINICAN ran an powerful race last out and at 10-1, he offers a pretty nice opportunity. It will be interesting to see which scenario plays out tomorrow.

John

[Ron]

I never get the paid workout thing right..Its still a $750,000 race, and if he is cranked up it'll be easy money.

[john del riccio]

I never get the paid workout thing right..Its still a $750,000 race, and if he is cranked up it'll be easy money.

Ron,

I agree he has shown the most talent and did so as a 2yo but this will not be an easy race for him. DOMINICAN is the real deal. His race in the Rushaway was just as good as HARD SPUN's was in the Spiral and he did it under some adversity. Make no mistake, he is the real deal.

John

[shanta]

Plus Dominican's have very good Street Sense.
:cool:

[horseplayer7776]

Cranked up? The trainer said its his life's dream to win the Bluegrass, I'll take a grade 1 race any day over the Derby, 20 horses, traffic problems, or the horse gets hurt in training, you take what's on the table unless your greedy.

[bobphilo]

Ron,

I agree he has shown the most talent and did so as a 2yo but this will not be an easy race for him. DOMINICAN is the real deal. His race in the Rushaway was just as good as HARD SPUN's was in the Spiral and he did it under some adversity. Make no mistake, he is the real deal.

John

I'm going to give this race a closer look later, but something not commonly known about Dominican is that he was gelded before his Rushaway win.
With a good reason for his improvement and the possibility of more to come, he could represent some value at the odds.
I still have to decide whether that will be enough to beat Street Sense and Great Hunter, though he looks like a must use in the Exotics.

Bob

[46zilzal]

Gelding of most animals doesn't have immediate effects, well, other than being lighter and able to withstand a kick!!

There is no hard and fast time table, but the effect usually is not immediate.

[Greyfox]

well, other than being lighter and able to withstand a kick!!

.
Good one 46z. :lol: Finally, I see that you do have a sense of humor.

[john del riccio]

I'm going to give this race a closer look later, but something not commonly known about Dominican is that he was gelded before his Rushaway win.
With a good reason for his improvement and the possibility of more to come, he could represent some value at the odds.
I still have to decide whether that will be enough to beat Street Sense and Great Hunter, though he looks like a must use in the Exotics.

Bob

Bob,

DOMINICAN may not be as talented on his best day as STREET SENSE, but her certainlly is as talented as GREAT HUNTER and has done so with less experience. I fully expect this guy to sho wup and make some noise tomorrow and there is no chance he goes off at 10-1 as the ML states, I will be shocked.

John

PS I cant prove it, with real data but for some reason I remeber that SS was said to have "not liked" the KEE surface at some point. Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me but I seem to recall this for some reason. GOOD LUCK.

[Robert Fischer]

His race in the Rushaway was just as good as HARD SPUN's was in the Spiral and he did it under some adversity.


Hard Spun was up on a faster pace against better horses and went 9 furlongs.
Dominican's finish was visually impressive, his trip couldn't have been much better in the Rushaway, was on the rail all race until he did have to swing out to pass those horses in the lane. Dominican is good on this surface. I don't like that he steps up in both class and distance here.

Great Hunter moves up at Kee as well. He isn't really that far off the pace, really depends how much Prado can slow down Teuflesberg in front. Will be interesting to see if Nakatani keeps an eye on Street Sense and moves late or if he takes first jump.

Street Sense moves back on poly track but has class and a strong running style. Maybe get to see him running wide again. Not really a good set up for Street Sense, but from a prep standpoint Nafzger needs a formful run, good timing by Borel, and a strong finish.

Zanjero may have less potential upside than a horse like Dominican, but may be more solid to round out a ticket. Never was a huge fan of Zanjero but the horse keeps passing tired rivals every time. Gomez will take last run here and Zanjero is another who probably moves up on Kee poly.

[46zilzal]

Whatever the result from the Bluegrass has to be taken with a grain of salt. Down the line it would be akin to using a turf race pp to evaluate the Derby the surface is that different.

[john del riccio]

Hard Spun was up on a faster pace against better horses and went 9 furlongs.
Dominican's finish was visually impressive, his trip couldn't have been much better in the Rushaway, was on the rail all race until he did have to swing out to pass those horses in the lane. Dominican is good on this surface. I don't like that he steps up in both class and distance here.

Great Hunter moves up at Kee as well. He isn't really that far off the pace, really depends how much Prado can slow down Teuflesberg in front. Will be interesting to see if Nakatani keeps an eye on Street Sense and moves late or if he takes first jump.

Street Sense moves back on poly track but has class and a strong running style. Maybe get to see him running wide again. Not really a good set up for Street Sense, but from a prep standpoint Nafzger needs a formful run, good timing by Borel, and a strong finish.

Zanjero may have less potential upside than a horse like Dominican, but may be more solid to round out a ticket. Never was a huge fan of Zanjero but the horse keeps passing tired rivals every time. Gomez will take last run here and Zanjero is another who probably moves up on Kee poly.

Robert,

HARD SPUN was closer to a faster pace, but was also outside horses with a very clear run. Take a look at the replay (hear that Fat man...!), DOMINICAN was behind horses, had no place to go, and had to muscle his way out. One he was clear, he finished very well. The extra 8 lbs is an issue.

GREAT HUNTER looks like he missed abit of training, thats the only hole I see in his game; his win last out was very professional.

STREET SENSE wasn't flatered by AGS but I think that one was given a poor ride in the Wood; Velasquez chose to not let NO BIZ get too far away and took his horse out of his style of finishing with one run.

ZANJERO may be a victim of a slow pace here; these pae ratings tell me that the pace isn't likely to be anywhere near hot which means he'll be forced to cloase into a soft pace. With that said, this KEE Polytrack surface is the right one do accomplish that on and he did come out of the best triple crown prep race to date (on my ratings). Depending on how the publi thinks, I will bet accordingly (or not) but ZANJERO will definitely be on my exacata ticket with DOMINICAN.

Good Luck.

John

[Richie]

Street Sense did not like the track according to trainer/jock after getting beat lasy fall bt Great Hunter.

[john del riccio]

Street Sense did not like the track according to trainer/jock after getting beat lasy fall bt Great Hunter.

I didn't remeber where/when I read that and I was starting to think it may have been another horse. With that said, he didn't run poorly over it and it was his first time over it so it won't be new this time.

John

[bobphilo]

Gelding of most animals doesn't have immediate effects, well, other than being lighter and able to withstand a kick!!

There is no hard and fast time table, but the effect usually is not immediate.

LOL. The effect I was refering to was psychological rather than physical. He was supposedly head-strong and hard to handle before gelding and he may have become more tractable in training and while racing.
I know some bettors who swear by "recently gelded" as an angle, though I wouldn't expect it too work every time unless the horse had behavioral problems. Maybe some use it as an excuse to give the horse anaboblic steriods as "hormone replacement", though lots of trainers use those, gelded or not.

Bob

[Cratos]

I wonder if this colt is going to run in this race as a paid workout....
This scenario has been knawing at me since I handicapped the Blue Grass as the Race of The Week. Why in the world would he be cranked up to run a big one ?Unless he is just an "old-school" iron horse that shows up and takes it to you each time he sets foot on the track (in which case he is gonna take some beating), he may offer value else where. DOMINICAN ran an powerful race last out and at 10-1, he offers a pretty nice opportunity. It will be interesting to see which scenario plays out tomorrow.

John
I believe that Carl Nafzger is making the right move in tightening his horse, Street Sense for the 2007 KY Derby which will be run in 3 weeks. Also, The Bluegrass Stakes is a traditional prep for the KY Derby and historically has produced some very good KY Derby winners in Spectacular Bid and Riva Ridge to name a couple.

Street Sense has done nothing wrong this year and his 1-1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby victory earlier this year projects out to a 2:01.46 final time for the 1 ¼ mile KY Derby distance. Dominican ran a good race in the 1-1/16 mile Rushaway at Tuftway with a projected time of 2:01.94.

However in my opinion, Street Sense main opposition will come from the California invader, Great Hunter who from his victory in his last race, the 1-1/16 mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita projects out to 2:01.22 for the 1 ¼ mile Derby distance.

[46zilzal]

Unbridled had a less than stellar (albeit with a troubled trip late) Blue Grass and was much the best 35 miles away a few weeks later. Nafzger is a smart cookie. Old rodeo rider: he knows horses well.

[john del riccio]

LOL. The effect I was refering to was psychological rather than physical. He was supposedly head-strong and hard to handle before gelding and he may have become more tractable in training and while racing.
I know some bettors who swear by "recently gelded" as an angle, though I wouldn't expect it too work every time unless the horse had behavioral problems. Maybe some use it as an excuse to give the horse anaboblic steriods as "hormone replacement", though lots of trainers use those, gelded or not.

Bob

Bob,

Its probably not the right thread but I'll try & sneak this story in under the radar. I had a claimer a few years back that I nominated for the claiming crown. He was a piece of work as a 5yo, he'd come off the track after galloping and stand up on his hind legs, rearing up and acting studdish like Fusaichi Pegasus. I'm about to run in a 100,000 race with a decent shot if the pace is legit and he fires his A race and my trainer decides to geld him before the race (about 4 or 5 weeks before). Needless to say, this horse was never the same. He lost his edge and his fight; ran as flat as a pancake and was 5-1 in an 8 horse field; for 100,000 purse ! Needless to say, everytime I hear stories about horses turning into monsters as a result of the ultimate equipment change, I am immediately reminded of how my chance at a huge purse was sitting in a jar somewhere...;)

John

[Edward DeVere]

I'm not a big fan of Teuflesburg, and it's a closer's track at Keeneland.

Nonetheless, Edgar climbs aboard and the horse is lone speed. Edgar's already pulled two wire jobs against the grain in the first week.

Teuflesburg would be my "live longshot" in this race. I expect to see him three wide on the first turn, with no one inside him. (Unless the track changes overnight, of course.)

Street Sense and Great Hunter are the two best horses, obviously. I'd lean slightly to Great Hunter, based on his past success on this track and his (presumably) higher odds.

Hard for me to get excited about this race as a betting proposition, unless Teuflesburg were to go off at something ridiculous like 12-1 or 15-1.

[bobphilo]

While Teuflesberg figures to run get a great pace scenario as the sole speed, he’s just not good enough to beat these. Street Sense did lose to Great Hunter on the Poly but he ran a big pace figure that day and that was before he improved dramatically to win the BC Juve. Considering how well he ran in the TB derby in his 1st race back, he looks very strong here. I like him in the Exotics over Great Hunter and Dominican.



Bob

[bobphilo]

Bob,

Its probably not the right thread but I'll try & sneak this story in under the radar. I had a claimer a few years back that I nominated for the claiming crown. He was a piece of work as a 5yo, he'd come off the track after galloping and stand up on his hind legs, rearing up and acting studdish like Fusaichi Pegasus. I'm about to run in a 100,000 race with a decent shot if the pace is legit and he fires his A race and my trainer decides to geld him before the race (about 4 or 5 weeks before). Needless to say, this horse was never the same. He lost his edge and his fight; ran as flat as a pancake and was 5-1 in an 8 horse field; for 100,000 purse ! Needless to say, everytime I hear stories about horses turning into monsters as a result of the ultimate equipment change, I am immediately reminded of how my chance at a huge purse was sitting in a jar somewhere...;)

John

John,



Sorry about the unfortunate result you had with your horse and I can see how gelding would make some horses less aggressive. However, some horses that can’t be handled improve dramatically after gelding. Forego was downright dangerous before gelding and allegedly killed a mare and injured several people before he was gelded and went on to be a great racehorse. He actually retained a lot of his aggressiveness but was able to channel it to the track.

The procedure can have a dramatic effect on a horse’s behavior – some for the better, some for the worse.



Bob

[JPinMaryland]

Forego was downright dangerous before gelding and allegedly killed a mare and injured several people before he was gelded and went on to be a great racehorse.


He should be removed from the Hall of Fame..

[JPinMaryland]

I would think that Teuf. will have to slow down on the lead in order to have any shot, his only win came on rather modest fractions. If so, then I would think SS has the best shot as he is sort of one run closer with a very strong burst for a limited distance. Also I wonder if that surface would help that sort of a runner better? Being more like a turf surface where runners can accelerate almost at will.

Zanjero, based on his come home times, I would think can only win with a total pace meltdown which doesnt seem likely. Am likely to toss from the exotics. Time Squared just broke his maiden, seems like a closer, might be playable if you get the right odds.

[john del riccio]

I'm not a big fan of Teuflesburg, and it's a closer's track at Keeneland.

Nonetheless, Edgar climbs aboard and the horse is lone speed. Edgar's already pulled two wire jobs against the grain in the first week.

Teuflesburg would be my "live longshot" in this race. I expect to see him three wide on the first turn, with no one inside him. (Unless the track changes overnight, of course.)

Street Sense and Great Hunter are the two best horses, obviously. I'd lean slightly to Great Hunter, based on his past success on this track and his (presumably) higher odds.

Hard for me to get excited about this race as a betting proposition, unless Teuflesburg were to go off at something ridiculous like 12-1 or 15-1.

Ed I don't see Tueflesburg gettinh 1 1/8. Great Hunter isn't better than Dminican in my opinion. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't minds being listed in owners line of him....

John

[JPinMaryland]

How much trouble does Great Hunter have running in the lane? He didnt look too straight in the BC juv. Trying to recall his last one....?

[bobphilo]

He should be removed from the Hall of Fame..

However, Forgo never bet on baseball games, or horse races. :D

Bob

[john del riccio]

He should be removed from the Hall of Fame..

MY all time favorite horse was Forego. I remeber the day he beat Honest Pleasure in the slop carrying a volkswagon for weight and my POP was banging the end table with his can of Shaefer that wound up on the cieling and everywhere else but in his mouth. I knew I saw something great but I just didn't know what it was.

Watch how fast there is a revolution if the racing secretaries start weighting handicap horses with a hundred thirty some-odd pounds. Some of these guys just don't run if they re slated to carry a buck twenty-five.

He was an IRON horse.

John

[JPinMaryland]

John: what weaknesses do you see in Great Hunter? He did once beat SS on this track.

[46zilzal]

The more I study the great ones, Forego keeps moving up the ladder for his shear steady ways: could sprint, route, tote weight and did it for years of legs that should not have carried him. Hickory that one.

[bobphilo]

MY all time favorite horse was Forego. I remeber the day he beat Honest Pleasure in the slop carrying a volkswagon for weight and my POP was banging the end table with his can of Shaefer that wound up on the cieling and everywhere else but in his mouth. I knew I saw something great but I just didn't know what it was.

John

John,
Me and your Pop both. :bang: :) I remember being at the track that day and betting Honest Pleasure thinking Forgo had run his last great race. Big mistake.

Bob

[Perlnalysis]

I also really like DOMINICAN in this race. You know he'll be fully cranked. Nice bullet work. Not sure that we'll get 10-1, but 7-1 seems fair.

I agree about STREET SENSE not being fully cranked for this race. Still, he should run well.

I'm keying DOMINICAN in exactas with the two logicals.

[Bubbles]

I think Dominican and Teuflesberg are both live in exotics here. Teuflesberg's the lone speed, and he's certainly got the right jock on him. Dominican ran away with the Rushaway, and has shown he likes poly.

I do think either SS or GH will win the race, but Dominican and Teuflesberg could really liven up exacta and trifecta payoffs if they run their races.

[ceejay]

I like Dominican too. I think the TB Dby will turn out to be a negative key race.

[NYPlayer]

Street Sense ought to win the race. Hopefully, he won't have to run too hard to do it. There is always the possibility that he could bounce, especially considering the intense effort he put out in the TB Derby. I don't think it's likely though, mainly because it's only his second start this year, and he had a full month from the TB race to recover. Also, the TB race was not a new top speed number - he had run better in the BC Juvenile as a 2 yo, so I think SS will get better, but hopefully he doesn't run a new top in the Bluegrass.

his main competition will be, of course, Great Hunter: a horse that's steadily making progress, although is just not as fast as SS. I don't think Dominican will win, but he could get a piece. And the most intriging horse from a value perspective is Teuflesberg. Aside from the unknown trainer, there's not a lot here to dislike. The horse has good early yet tractible speed, and seems to be developing reasonably well. SS has some work to do for a win here.

[Cratos]

MY all time favorite horse was Forego. I remeber the day he beat Honest Pleasure in the slop carrying a volkswagon for weight and my POP was banging the end table with his can of Shaefer that wound up on the cieling and everywhere else but in his mouth. I knew I saw something great but I just didn't know what it was.

Watch how fast there is a revolution if the racing secretaries start weighting handicap horses with a hundred thirty some-odd pounds. Some of these guys just don't run if they re slated to carry a buck twenty-five.

He was an IRON horse.

John
That was in the 1976 Marlboro Cup Handicap and he spotted Honest Pleasure 18 pounds and the third-place finisher, Father Hogan 27 pounds and beat them both toting 137 pounds, the 2nd highest weight load of his illustrious career.

[JPinMaryland]

good lord, honest pleasure was a good horse too! I guess Forego was the last of the great weight carriers huh?

[46zilzal]

Street Sense ought to win the race. Hopefully, he won't have to run too hard to do it.
I have rarely seen a colt display this type of dominance for a Derby prep. If he gets beaten it is because of the surface or racing luck: he leads in all pace categories.

[Robert Fischer]

I have rarely seen a colt display this type of dominance for a Derby prep. If he gets beaten it is because of the surface or racing luck: he leads in all pace categories.

Leparoux does more than he should on this stuff.

I agree that Street Sense is head and shoulders the best animal in this race.

[john del riccio]

John: what weaknesses do you see in Great Hunter? He did once beat SS on this track.

JP,

Not too many weaknesses, may have missed some training, thats about it.

John

[Bignick63]

Street Sense comes in off 4 weeks after enduring a possibly taxing effort in his return. He had battled Any Given Saturday in the TB Derby and in fact, Any Given Saturday came back last week on just 3 weeks rest and weakened in the stretch. I bring this fact up in this race because I see a major difference in the way Saturday trained leading up to his last prep and the way Street Sense has trained. Any Given Saturday needed to recover from his prior taxing effort suffered in the TB Derby and only had 1 published work that was an easy breeze. So his trainer tipped off he had a tired horse.

In comparison, Street Sense has trained very well heading into the Blue Grass. And because Street Sense has had so much "bottom" and "conditioning" added to him by running so well and so deeply last year as a 2-year-old, his trainer, Carl Nafzger is able to bring his horse along at his own pace. In fact Street does not even need to win this race on Saturday, however most importantly he needs to get this race under his belt especially at 1 1/8 miles headed into the Kentucky Derby. He seems primed and ready to run his best race yet.

-Nick
www.nickborg.com (http://www.nickborg.com)
www.nickborg.com/blog.html (http://www.nickborg.com/blog.html)

[NY BRED]

[
Street does not even need to win this race on Saturday, however most importantly he needs to get this race under his belt especially at 1 1/8 miles headed into the Kentucky Derby. He seems primed and ready to run his best race yet. (Nick)


Exactly correct.. despite the fact of the purse, winning the KY derby is
Carl's goal, which I believe is the reason for the light racing schedule these past few months.

Aside from the status of winning the KD, bredding value is enormous


Not entirely certain about this race, based upon the bounce of Pletcher's
hopeful in the Wood.

upset special could very well be Zanger/Great Hunter exacta

[Robert Fischer]

[
Not entirely certain about this race, based upon the bounce of Pletcher's
hopeful in the Wood.


My opinion is that the Wood had a lot more to do with the horse than its previous key race.

[NY BRED]

not disagreeing with the running style changes and in fact,
and to be honest, I'm no longer so keen on NBLSB after watching
his chamge in running style with the Blinks.

This Derby will obviously be contentious, maybe a new thread should
incorporate thoughts from everyone on contenders if track turns
out to be sloppy/muddy?

[bobphilo]

While Teuflesberg figures to run get a great pace scenario as the sole speed, he’s just not good enough to beat these. Street Sense did lose to Great Hunter on the Poly but he ran a big pace figure that day and that was before he improved dramatically to win the BC Juve. Considering how well he ran in the TB derby in his 1st race back, he looks very strong here. I like him in the Exotics over Great Hunter and Dominican.



Bob

The more I look, the more I like Street Sense here. Just found out that in his loss to Great Hunter on Poly he actually ran 39 more feet according to Trakus.
I also think that given given the easy early lead he should get and his strong pace figures, Teuflesberg could well run back to his Southwest figure.
Key Street Sense over Great Hunter, Dominican and Teuflesberg in Exacta and Trifecta.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

The more I look, the more I like Street Sense here. Just found out that in his loss to Great Hunter on Poly he actually ran 39 more feet according to Trakus.
I also think that given given the easy early lead he should get and his strong pace figures, Teuflesberg could well run back to his Southwest figure.
Key Street Sense over Great Hunter, Dominican and Teuflesberg in Exacta and Trifecta.

Bob

Right, forgot about the trakus thing. Fatman posted that a few weeks ago. The man is observant AND fat.

I would go Street Sense over Dominican, but probably pass the race unless I can find a trifecta that seems doable. Dont really like Teuflesberg although it sets up for him pace wise; needs to slow it down in order to finish. Zanjero seems like a grinder, dont look for him to pass anybody in the stretch unless they are stopping.

Weather report?

[bobphilo]

Right, forgot about the trakus thing. Fatman posted that a few weeks ago. The man is observant AND fat.



In addition to providing more precise data, Trakus has the additional advantage of being much less hostile. :ThmbUp: :D

[Robert Fischer]

DOMINICAN


Well done

[john del riccio]

Well done

If Zanjero would have won the photo, I'd still be stuck tp the ceiling...what a finish.

John

[NYPlayer]

I have rarely seen a colt display this type of dominance for a Derby prep. If he gets beaten it is because of the surface or racing luck: he leads in all pace categories.

Well, at least he didn't run some through-the-roof number which would have left him vulnerable for the Derby. It looks like Calvin had a pretty tight hold on him early. He ran wide on both turns and then was then urged into the stretch where he almost had to check a couple of times. That probably made a difference in the photo finish. He just wasn't as lucky as he was in Tampa.

[JPinMaryland]

...you could tell in that last stride how drained he was from the TB derby. I knew that last race took too much out of him. :ThmbUp:

[Exotic1]

Expert analysis on every entrant. Dominican of course, but on your RAce of the Week anaylsis (your web site) you said Great Hunter could be short because of missed works, you had Zanjero coming out of the 'best prep in the land' -- really good stuff. I left Zanjero out because I thought he would be closing into a very slow pace.

[jazmine]

I think if you watch the replay of the blue grass,you will see when all the bumping was going on street sense came out of it on the wrong lead.

[john del riccio]

Expert analysis on every entrant. Dominican of course, but on your RAce of the Week anaylsis (your web site) you said Great Hunter could be short because of missed works, you had Zanjero coming out of the 'best prep in the land' -- really good stuff. I left Zanjero out because I thought he would be closing into a very slow pace.

Writing the ROTW up is enjoyable and it makes me a better handicapper as a result. Good Luck.

JOhn

[highnote]

What was the Beyer fig for the Bluegrass?

Steve Crist said in article this week that this year's Derby crop has not run a bigger number than Street Sense's BC Juvenile 108.

Beyer has always admitted to not being able to make good turf figures. The reason is because of the pace of turf races.

The pace of this year's Polytrack Bluegrass was a walk -- 50 and change for the half.

Can Beyer can make a good figure for this race?

[betovernetcapper]

I'm going to guess it's something like 100. Ravel aside, there are eleven three year olds that have run route Beyers of 100 to 102 this year. I think SS's 108 in the BCJ was somewhat inflated and probably shouldn't be taken at face value and currently is something like a solid 102.

[Cratos]

Expert analysis on every entrant. Dominican of course, but on your RAce of the Week anaylsis (your web site) you said Great Hunter could be short because of missed works, you had Zanjero coming out of the 'best prep in the land' -- really good stuff. I left Zanjero out because I thought he would be closing into a very slow pace.

Not to demean Woodside’ Associates prior race call of Dominican winning the Bluegrass, but it is not true if you watched the race or review the Bluegrass race replay to say that Great Hunter was “short.” Teuflesberg drifted out in front of Great Hunter which forced Great Hunter to be taken up by his jockey and because of that incident, Street Sense was floated wide or further out.

Again, this doesn’t take away from Woodside Associates call or diminish Dominican’s victory, but Street Sense ran his race and being a closer with the troubled trip that he encountered in the Bluegrass and only to lose by a nose, he should be primed for a big effort come the 5th of May.

[Cratos]

What was the Beyer fig for the Bluegrass?

Steve Crist said in article this week that this year's Derby crop has not run a bigger number than Street Sense's BC Juvenile 108.

Beyer has always admitted to not being able to make good turf figures. The reason is because of the pace of turf races.

The pace of this year's Polytrack Bluegrass was a walk -- 50 and change for the half.

Can Beyer can make a good figure for this race?

It is good to see another “Buffettite” on the forum like which I consider myself to be (a la, an independent thinker) and one of his most favorable quotes for me is: “You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will.”

[Valuist]

Street Sense's stock is slipping. He ran a tremendous race over the Poly when he got beat last fall, then ran an even bigger race in the BC. Those two races as a 2YO were better than his two races as a 3YO. I don't like that; despite the slow pace, he was outclosed by Dominican. And the front wraps stayed on. He is very vulnerable.

[bobphilo]

What was the Beyer fig for the Bluegrass?

Steve Crist said in article this week that this year's Derby crop has not run a bigger number than Street Sense's BC Juvenile 108.

Beyer has always admitted to not being able to make good turf figures. The reason is because of the pace of turf races.

The pace of this year's Polytrack Bluegrass was a walk -- 50 and change for the half.

Can Beyer can make a good figure for this race?

Beyer, and other fig makers, can go 2 ways with this.
1) He can give everyone a poor figure based on the slow final time and the pace handicappers can take this into account and/or adjust for the slow early pace.
2) He can assign figures based on the horses finish relative to each other in relation to their prior figure histories, which whould include the affect of the pace, and probably give a better "as is" figure for the race (ala Timeform), for those that will not consider pace in later evaluating the race.

Which will yield the more "accurate" figure will depend on how it is later used.

Bob

[rastajenk]

For the time being, it looks like he's gone with Plan (1).

A Derby-winning Beyer is about 108, 110. Some have done better; Giacomo did much worse. But right now the only one poised to do something like that is Curlin, in spite of his lack of "seasoning." After that, they're all about the same.

An All-All-All trifecta is only $6840. Could be a bargain. :cool:

[SMOO]

An All-All-All trifecta is only $6840. Could be a bargain. :cool:

For those of us on a lower budget, an all-all perfecta is only $380. :p

[46zilzal]

Street Sense's stock is slipping. He ran a tremendous race over the Poly when he got beat last fall, then ran an even bigger race in the BC. Those two races as a 2YO were better than his two races as a 3YO. I don't like that; despite the slow pace, he was outclosed by Dominican. And the front wraps stayed on. He is very vulnerable.
and getting blocker, carried out and bumped had NOTHING to do with that? Take off your own blinkers!

Front wraps are OVERPLAYED,having worked on the backside with many a trainer who use them as protection (you know just like EVERY football player on every NFL field, every weekend). Adapating "group think" (thanks George Orwell) to individual situations will get you far.

[Valuist]

and getting blocker, carried out and bumped had NOTHING to do with that? Take off your own blinkers!

Front wraps are OVERPLAYED,having worked on the backside with many a trainer who use them as protection (you know just like EVERY football player on every NFL field, every weekend). Adapating "group think" (thanks George Orwell) to individual situations will get you far.

My thought processes have done well. Especially in the Derby. Signer tris in 1990, 1998, and 2001. A near signer exacta in 1995 and a signer Pic 3 from 2002. I think I know how to handicap the Derby and I don't like the way this horse is going. He's had one legit race and basically a 2 furlong public workout. Nobody from the Blue Grass is going to benefit. I like Nafzger but he may have second thoughts about using the Blue Grass as a springboard to the Derby.

[46zilzal]

numbers say otherwise

[Tom]

What numbers? The Tampa race?

[46zilzal]

Trend is the same positive maturing profile that says 10 furlongs at three is possible.

[highnote]

Still, the big question is what speed figure should be awarded to Bluegrass Stakes runners?

Sure it was a slow pace. That means that after 1:16 and change 6 furlong split, there wasn't enough distance left in the race to run a fast final time. So if Beyer bases his speed rating on final time, it's not going to be very useful.

I like Jim Quinn's method for making speed figures on the turf. And I like Nick Mordin's method for making projected final time daily variants.

Also, Steve Roman at chef-de-race.com makes good speed ratings, which he calls Performance Ratings. They are based on the combination of pace and final time figures.

In order to get anything meaningful from the Bluegrass, you might have to look at it from a lot of different angles.

My concern with Street Sense is that he won't have developed enough toughness to get 10 furlongs in a rough and tumble KY Derby.

Then again, he may have gotten enough out of the BG Stakes.

This is going to be a fun Derby to handicap. Should be some great prices.

[DanG]

Still, the big question is what speed figure should be awarded to Bluegrass Stakes runners?

Sure it was a slow pace. That means that after 1:16 and change 6 furlong split, there wasn't enough distance left in the race to run a fast final time. So if Beyer bases his speed rating on final time, it's not going to be very useful.

In order to get anything meaningful from the Bluegrass, you might have to look at it from a lot of different angles.

This is going to be a fun Derby to handicap. Should be some great prices.
This sums it up nicely and regardless of the pace and trips this thread started with excellent analysis by John IMO. :ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

This sums it up nicely and regardless of the pace and trips this thread started with excellent analysis by John IMO. :ThmbUp:

Dan,

Thanks, its nice when it works out, even if it was by the hair on my chinny-chin, chin....

By the way, there is a perspective I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet. Street Sense improved from his previous KEE Polytrack effort (on my ratings). So using the Bluegrass to simply assess form instead of direct comparison for whats on tap in 3 weeks tells me he hasn't regressed, he's actually moved forward. It will be interesting to see how these horses train over the CD surface in the next few weeks.

John

[cees with dees]

Street Sense comes in off 4 weeks after enduring a possibly taxing effort in his return. He had battled Any Given Saturday in the TB Derby and in fact, Any Given Saturday came back last week on just 3 weeks rest and weakened in the stretch. I bring this fact up in this race because I see a major difference in the way Saturday trained leading up to his last prep and the way Street Sense has trained. Any Given Saturday needed to recover from his prior taxing effort suffered in the TB Derby and only had 1 published work that was an easy breeze. So his trainer tipped off he had a tired horse.

In comparison, Street Sense has trained very well heading into the Blue Grass. And because Street Sense has had so much "bottom" and "conditioning" added to him by running so well and so deeply last year as a 2-year-old, his trainer, Carl Nafzger is able to bring his horse along at his own pace. In fact Street does not even need to win this race on Saturday, however most importantly he needs to get this race under his belt especially at 1 1/8 miles headed into the Kentucky Derby. He seems primed and ready to run his best race yet.

-Nick
www.nickborg.com (http://www.nickborg.com/)
www.nickborg.com/blog.html (http://www.nickborg.com/blog.html)


Nick, are you kidding??? If you think Any Given Saturday ran poorly in the Wood, rewatch the card and tell me one horse that raced well who raced outside every step of the way.
That was April 7th to the best of my memory and at least a dozen horses who raced wide that day have come back to win or run trememdously well. To the contrary, those who rode the rail highway like Jamaican Kev, who Jason Blewitt has been scratching his buffoonal head about, and Nobiz Like Showbiz have come back to run particularly poorly.
Track bias is handicapping 101. With Training patterns that you have absolutely no clue on what any trainer is thinking or planning, you're getting WAY ahead of yourself.
Just an opinion.

[john del riccio]

Still, the big question is what speed figure should be awarded to Bluegrass Stakes runners?

Sure it was a slow pace. That means that after 1:16 and change 6 furlong split, there wasn't enough distance left in the race to run a fast final time. So if Beyer bases his speed rating on final time, it's not going to be very useful.

I like Jim Quinn's method for making speed figures on the turf. And I like Nick Mordin's method for making projected final time daily variants.

Also, Steve Roman at chef-de-race.com makes good speed ratings, which he calls Performance Ratings. They are based on the combination of pace and final time figures.

In order to get anything meaningful from the Bluegrass, you might have to look at it from a lot of different angles.

My concern with Street Sense is that he won't have developed enough toughness to get 10 furlongs in a rough and tumble KY Derby.

Then again, he may have gotten enough out of the BG Stakes.

This is going to be a fun Derby to handicap. Should be some great prices.

Sweet,

The only way to accurately gauge what the BG performaces were are to wait until those horses have at least 2 subsequent Polytrack efforts within a 1/16
of a mile of a mile and also consider their form at the time of those subsequent efforts. I had the BG as a solid race.

John

[PaceAdvantage]

Track bias is handicapping 101.

For you perhaps, and even then, Track Bias means different things to different people. Just an opinion.

[the_fat_man]

That was April 7th to the best of my memory and at least a dozen horses who raced wide that day have come back to win or run trememdously well. To the contrary, those who rode the rail highway like Jamaican Kev, who Jason Blewitt has been scratching his buffoonal head about, and Nobiz Like Showbiz have come back to run particularly poorly.


Add Hedge Fund to that list. Can you believe he was the favorite Saturday? :lol:

[cees with dees]

I wheeled his race in the pick 4 mainly because McGuaghey is so cold.
I think Hedge Fund is a really nice horse though. The barn is just really comatose now for whatever the reason.
Would love to see Hedge Fund with someone like Parisella, Contessa, or Hushion. Calks on that thing could make him a graded stakes winner.

[the_fat_man]

Add Hedge Fund to that list. Can you believe he was the favorite Saturday? :lol:

ate up some more money today :lol:

8/5 in a 5 horse field.

[classhandicapper]

ate up some more money today :lol:

8/5 in a 5 horse field.

That was a pretty dreadful effort. At least in his previous race you could say he might not have wanted to route. Today he was flat out bad. He's going in the wrong direction. Something must be wrong with him.