Weight & the Sheets

[bdhsheets]

Hello everyone:

I read with great interest and some amusement, the thread about weight, hoping that the Db guys might come up with a key to the question. I'd like to thank all of them for their efforts.

The truth of the matter is that weight can only be an equalizing factor if the opponents are somewhat close in ability and form cycle! Mr. Slowpoke can't win with a feather on his back unless he has figs that are in the neighborhood.

In the recent Stephen Foster Hcp GII at Churchill, Captain Steve was the highweight at 123lbs with a top of 0.50 lost to Guided Tour carrying 113lbs with a top of 2.25. The weight made it happen. (5lbs=1pt) I understand that this is a somewhat simplistic example, but it makes it easier to bet a 15-1 shot vs the 3/5 knowing that they are equal in ability. Does it work all the time? Of course not, many other factors come into play. One still has to be a somewhat decent handicapper no matter what method you might be using.

BTW: I'm certain the Beyers will be about the same for both, but the Sheets will show that Captain Steve ran a much better race.

BTW #2: I suspect the original inquiry on weight was intended to inspect Stakes Handicaps.

Good Luck to all and may they all come home safely!

bdhsheets

[ceejay]

Originally posted by bdhsheets
I suspect the original inquiry on weight was intended to inspect Stakes Handicaps.


Yes, bdh, it was intended to investigate handicaps; however, the reason was to test Davidowitz's premise than weight is virtually meaningless.

One question that I've always had is:
We pay so much attention to the carried weight but what about the weight of the horse ? A 1200 lb horse who weighs an extra 10 lb because he's fat or bloated is still carrying 10 extra pounds. Percentage-wise, that's like a 150 pound man who weighs an extra 1.25 pounds. I'm sure that 10 pounds on the frame of the horse is easier balance-wise than 10 pounds on the back, but I suspect that you get the point. Our local track used to weigh horses and report the results in the program but the only real use would be if we had that information consistently.

[Tim]

Originally posted by bdhsheets

BTW #2: I suspect the original inquiry on weight was intended to inspect Stakes Handicaps.


bdhsheets,

That's right, ceejay's original question was about handicaps. The database problem with that question is how to isolate traditional handicaps where the weights are assigned from races where the weights are assigned by conditions. The data providers that I know about don't include the detailed information about class and conditions in a format needed to easily solve the parsing problems.

Since I don't understand the effect of weight anyway, I figured a general query from a large dataset might help cast some light.

You seem confident with the formula (5lbs=1pt). To me, it sounds like "1 length = 1/5 second". It looks like a subjective adjustment that might not be accurate in all situations. Of course, I could be wrong.

Tim

[GR1@HTR]

This might sound stupid, but if you make 5lbs=1 length/point then on must make the same adjustments for jockeys and their weights....ie if Switching from a 130 midget to another 115lbs dwarf then there should be a 3 length/point adjustment.

Yes or No?

[Tom]

Andy Beyer wrote in column once that he felt that 1 pound equalled 0.4 Beyer Point, or somethiong close to that. some had done a computer study for him. I will see if I still have that article somewhere.
Tom