Few Santa Anita

[danmurphy jr]

SANTA ANITA: Cloudy 70'
2nd #3 Heatseeker (IRE) 3/1
5th #10 Laddies Poker 10/1
6th #2 Brite Maneuvers 15/1
8th #1 Try to Fly 6/1

[chickenhead]

Like the 4 in the 5th.

Like the 1 in the feature.

[Indulto]

Like the 4 in the 5th.

Like the 1 in the feature.In the featured 8th, #1, Try to Fly just broke his maiden and has the rail, but no early speed. His 98 Beyer reminds me of Summer Doldrums inflated and then adjusted figure.

It's a contentious race with both #2 and #7 having run competitively in the Sunshine Millions Dash. #5, Ablanche was a good 2nd at the distance to Les Grande Trois who was the troubled favorite in yesterday's Bay Shore. #3 Street Lights was 2nd to Cobalt Blue who subsequently won the San Felipe.

My pick is #6, Principle Secret, who won a G2 at the distance as a 2YO beating Great Hunter and Stormello. He was then narrowly beaten by the latter in a G2 at 1 1/16 m. Those two races confirmed his speed and class. Following that, he was eased in the BC Juvenile after dueling for the lead, and then did not finish well after being near the lead in a G1 on the HOL synthetic surface at the same distance; both under Espinoza. He gets Solis back today at his preferred distance off a 3-month layoff to start his 3YO campaign.

He is the 3rd ML choice at 4-1 which would make him an overlay IMO, provided bettors continue to ignore him. This race looks like a great opportunity for TRI and SUPER players.

[bigmack]

Running style of E & E/P comprise 71% winners from 12/26-4/05 throwing out Try to Fly & Abanlanche. I’d like to ride your coattails with the Principle Indulto, though the three month off and the last three routes make me wonder if he’ll know how to play the distance.

My stand is with Idiot Proof as it's the only sticker I look for when buying a major appliance.

[chickenhead]

His 98 Beyer reminds me of Summer Doldrums inflated and then adjusted figure.

I'm curious as to why you say that? Something in particular makes you think that is an incorrect figure? (I don't use Beyers, I'm just curious as I didn't think you did either)

I think the 1 and the 5 are roughly equal beasts, based on their last two. The likely odds differential leads me to the 1.

Your horse is talented, but I dislike horses that are both on the cut back and off a layoff for a 6.5F race. I'd use him underneath, however.

[Ron]

My stand is with Idiot Proof as it's the only sticker I look for when buying a major appliance.

I can't believe that we're getting 6 on this guy.

[chickenhead]

This race looks like a great opportunity for TRI and SUPER players.
:jump:

[melman]

Good capping guys CH you hit the nail on the head with the 1 a winner at $9.80 and the 1-6 ex good for $62.40. The tri of 1-6-3 good for $481 and the super with the 5 good for $1471.60. Hope you had all of those nice payouts. Good Job again gentlemen.

[bigmack]

:jump:
Did you witness the first outing of Try to Fly, Chicky? The effort flies off the PP's. I questioned his front run. Nice call though the price could have been better. More than likely lurkers leaned into your selection.
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/4_8_07_16_30_56.jpg

[Indulto]

:jump::lol:
I guess they won't be adjusting that figure after all. ;) I'm just lucky I put a full dollar on the supers with my ist choice finishing first or second.

Nice pick! :ThmbUp:

[chickenhead]

I watched TTFs 1st yesterday when I was checking out Tiztime (who I burned a little money on). I figured the GG jumping to the 5 would be worth a buck or two, was wrong about that. Caught a little bit of everything, made my day.

Good call on the 6 Indulto, he gave a real nice effort.

[chickenhead]

SANTA ANITA: Cloudy 70'
2nd #3 Heatseeker (IRE) 3/1
5th #10 Laddies Poker 10/1
6th #2 Brite Maneuvers 15/1
8th #1 Try to Fly 6/1

2 outta 4, $8 wagered $16.60 returned, very nice! :ThmbUp:

[danmurphy jr]

SANTA ANITA: Cloudy 70'
2nd #3 Heatseeker (IRE) 3/1 PLACE $4.20-3.00 @2/1 - Neck
5th #10 Laddies Poker 10/1 WIN $6.00-4.40-3.40 @2/1
6th #2 Brite Maneuvers 15/1 OUT @?
8th #1 Try to Fly 6/1 WIN $9.80-4.60-3.20 @7/2

Thanks alot for participating all. #10 in the 5th surprise betdown 8/1 to 2/1

[George Sands]

Indulto, why did you think the Beyer for Try to Fly was inflated and needed to be adjusted?

[Indulto]

Indulto, why did you think the Beyer for Try to Fly was inflated and needed to be adjusted?GS,
I'm honored that my commentary provoked your transition from lurker to poster. As the horse obviously lived up to his rating with the aid of the terrific toddler Talamo as an ancient Alex took a fleet selection of mine four-wide around the turn, there's no point in painfully pusuing my paranoia in public. ;)

Since TtF was able to handle a solid group of sprinters so impressively off his maiden win, he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

[George Sands]

Thank you for the welcome, Indulto. Did you hit this superfecta? Best wishes!

[Indulto]

Thank you for the welcome, Indulto. Did you hit this superfecta? Best wishes!GS,
I was very fortunate that the 7 wound up as the favorite and then finshed out of the money since I downgraded him as well as the 2 below the other four entries and only played the 1,3, and 5 to finish ahead of the 6.

Did you play the race?

The reason I suspected #1's 98 Beyer for his 1:09-3/91-09 was #2's 92 for his 1:09-3/91-10 and #3's 94 for his 1:09-1/93-14. I wasn't discounting #1's ability as much as suggesting that his apparent numeric advantage was questionable. Before embracing this result as an example of Beyer Fig accuracy, remember #7's 102 also earned in a maiden race contributed to his favoritism.

I neglected to point out previously that #1's overcoming his post only enhances yesterday's accomplishment. However it will not be reflected in his Beyer any more than #6's trip will in his.

I really look forward to Trakus data becoming available.

[George Sands]

Thank you for the reply, Indulto. Would you please take me through the process of how you used the DRF Speed Rating and Variant to conclude that the Beyer for Try to Fly was "inflated"? Didn't Try to Fly run on Big Cap Day? Didn't the other two horses you mentioned run on weekdays? Isn't the DRF variant distorted by the level of competition running on a particular day? Moreover, wasn't his race the only sprint run that day, rendering moot the other factors? Surely you didn't merely add the DRF speed rating to the variant and conclude that Beyer inflated the number. That would be akin to using fire to try to put out raging water.

I had no real interest in the race in question other than my habit of going through all the results charts to make my pace figures. I think the Beyers are pretty good, but I don't use them.

I respectfully disagree with you about giving Try to Fly extra credit for overcoming the rail. Yes, the rail produces a lot of bad trips in SA sprints, but it also produces some good trips, often when the Red Sea parts for a closer, as I think it did yesterday. So why give Try to Fly credit for clearing historical hurdles that were not placed in front of him yesterday?

Congratulations for hitting the superfecta in this race and for hitting the SA Derby. Like Try to Fly, you seem to have a knack for making last-second adjustments that allow you to outrun your posts.

[chickenhead]

Damn Indulto, I think you hooked a live one!

George, welcome to the board! I think you've found your home. I like a guy that shows up throwing (well reasoned) haymakers.

[Indulto]

Thank you for the reply, Indulto. Would you please take me through the process of how you used the DRF Speed Rating and Variant to conclude that the Beyer for Try to Fly was "inflated"? Didn't Try to Fly run on Big Cap Day? Didn't the other two horses you mentioned run on weekdays? Isn't the DRF variant distorted by the level of competition running on a particular day? Moreover, wasn't his race the only sprint run that day, rendering moot the other factors? Surely you didn't merely add the DRF speed rating to the variant and conclude that Beyer inflated the number. That would be akin to using fire to try to put out raging water.

I had no real interest in the race in question other than my habit of going through all the results charts to make my pace figures. I think the Beyers are pretty good, but I don't use them.

I respectfully disagree with you about giving Try to Fly extra credit for overcoming the rail. Yes, the rail produces a lot of bad trips in SA sprints, but it also produces some good trips, often when the Red Sea parts for a closer, as I think it did yesterday. So why give Try to Fly credit for clearing historical hurdles that were not placed in front of him yesterday?

Congratulations for hitting the superfecta in this race and for hitting the SA Derby. Like Try to Fly, you seem to have a knack for making last-second adjustments that allow you to outrun your posts.GS,
At last -- a legitimate debater with a sense of humor to match.:jump:

Unlike Saturday's scramble which succeeded in saving my sanity, Sunday's score was soberly structured in the sanctuary of Earlybirds. Both were prime examples of why it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

Lately my play has become more frustrating than rewarding as I keep coming so close without catching the brass ring. Saturday's experience obviously influenced my thinking on Sunday.

My post on the merits of Principle Secret was even more unusual than my having such a strong opinion on a single race these days. Glad you were watching.

Do you think Talamo was shortened from TalaMOSES? :lol:

[George Sands]

Indulto,

If I am understanding your post correctly after wading through your alliteration (which I abhor, no fault of yours), then I fear you are being too hard on yourself. Having your 4-1 shot finish second is not at all unusual. That horse was inches away from being the second choice in the wagering, and he finished second. From an odds standpoint, this is a non-event. Sure, you did badmouth the winner over his bad post, lack of early speed, and "inflated" Beyer, but if I am reading you correctly, you found a way to use him on top anyway--even as you apparently ended up tossing from the top spots some horses you had praised in your pre-race post. All of this sounds like excellent improvisation to me. This is a worthwhile skill, one you ought never apologize for or call "luck." One of the things I like about this website is that it is not the Derby List, where I do my regular lurking. The Derby List has some savage "Redboard Police" who would tar and feather you for your post-post conversions on the SA Derby and yesterday's 8th race. To my mind this has a negative effect on post-race discussions, an effect that adds a fundamental dishonesty to them as people drop subtle hints about post-post conversions without actually making them explicit, lest they run afoul of the dreaded Red Board Police. I much prefer the looser attitude here. Anyway, thanks to you and Chickenhead for the kind words and lively posts. As for Talamo, after his ride in the 8th yesterday, I feel obliged to hold my nose and go with "Remember the Talamo!"

[Indulto]

Indulto,

If I am understanding your post correctly after wading through your alliteration (which I abhor, no fault of yours), then I fear you are being too hard on yourself. Having your 4-1 shot finish second is not at all unusual. That horse was inches away from being the second choice in the wagering, and he finished second. From an odds standpoint, this is a non-event. Sure, you did badmouth the winner over his bad post, lack of early speed, and "inflated" Beyer, but if I am reading you correctly, you found a way to use him on top anyway--even as you apparently ended up tossing from the top spots some horses you had praised in your pre-race post. All of this sounds like excellent improvisation to me. This is a worthwhile skill, one you ought never apologize for or call "luck." One of the things I like about this website is that it is not the Derby List, where I do my regular lurking. The Derby List has some savage "Redboard Police" who would tar and feather you for your post-post conversions on the SA Derby and yesterday's 8th race. To my mind this has a negative effect on post-race discussions, an effect that adds a fundamental dishonesty to them as people drop subtle hints about post-post conversions without actually making them explicit, lest they run afoul of the dreaded Red Board Police. I much prefer the looser attitude here. Anyway, thanks to you and Chickenhead for the kind words and lively posts. As for Talamo, after his ride in the 8th yesterday, I feel obliged to hold my nose and go with "Remember the Talamo!"GS,
The "Red Board Police" here are alive and well, but their temporary absence is negated by your not-so-subtle, but stimulating target practice. ;)

Allow me to present an alternative interpretation (as opposed to a defense) of my post to enable you to consider adjusting your justifiable suspicion:

In the featured 8th, #1, Try to Fly just broke his maiden and has the rail, but no early speed. His 98 Beyer reminds me of Summer Doldrums inflated and then adjusted figure.You say badmouth; I say healthy skepticism. I mentioned him first because I was responding to C-HD's statement devoid of justification. My initial intention was to hear his offsetting pros to my cons.... It's a contentious race with both #2 and #7 having run competitively in the Sunshine Millions Dash. #5, Ablanche was a good 2nd at the distance to Les Grande Trois who was the troubled favorite in yesterday's Bay Shore. #3 Street Lights was 2nd to Cobalt Blue who subsequently won the San Felipe.

My pick is #6, Principle Secret.My exposure to Len Friedman's rundowns on the Rag Board has influenced me to adopt his habit of discussing contenders in reverse order of preference when doing a race rundown. Having decided to share my selection, and conclusion that a vertical exotic was the appropriate play, I added the other contenders.
I doubt I would have even mentioned my play if C-HD hadn't quoted my "TRI and SUPER" comment and I wasn't feeling so exuberant about going for more than a dime.

The 98 Beyer was like an elephant in the room; too big to ignore. Furthermore, TtF hadn't shown that he couldn't compete with graded stakes company whereas #2 and #7 did. #2 came back from the SM Dash in an optional claimer and -- given Baffert's decline in fortune/status while continuing to utilize fast workouts -- there was no reason to believe #7 would reverse the order of finish with the more acclimated #2. I thought the 1,3, and 5 were the only real possibilities to beat the 6 off a layoff, but the 2 and 7 definitely belonged in the lower three slots.

You can continue to doubt my veracity if you're so inclined and, frankly, I wouldn't blame you. But as I like your style, so similar to that of another Rag Board refugee with an alliteration allergy, I hope you won't.

BTW wasn't George Sands a famous magician? It was as if you magically appeared out of nowhere. :D

[chickenhead]

I just read something recently in Blink, the Malcolm Gladwell book...it reinforces what I have found about myself with regards to getting too verbose about things beforehand.

They called it "blocking". Say you saw a person, and you wanted to re-identify them later. You can recall their face in your minds eye pretty well. But they found if they make you describe the person in detail...what their nose looks like, what their chin looks like, etc....and then test you, you can't recognize them nearly as well.

Ultimately the narrative you create to describe them verbally, whatever part of the brain it is that does that, kind of destroys the intuitive part of your brain that actually held all the nuance. Now depending on the situation you may want to destroy the nuance...but for me at least there is a lot of nuance to doing these things in my head on the fly.

Sometimes I feel like making public verbose selections results in blocking...its important for the narrative to make sense...which can destroy some of the intuitive feel...heck sometimes they are totally at odds.

But, I find very often whatever it is my spidey senses are picking up on....whether I can make a sensible narrative out of it or not, it needs to be respected. Which leads to me to not like making prognostications...as much as I'd like to more often.

This is all a rather long way around to saying: Don't worry so much about having a sensible narrative to describe every reason why you did something in detail. Because you'll likely end up making some of the reasons up. Our spidey senses are at work here too.

[Indulto]

I just read something recently in Blink, the Malcolm Gladwell book...it reinforces what I have found about myself with regards to getting too verbose about things beforehand.

... But, I find very often whatever it is my spidey senses are picking up on....whether I can make a sensible narrative out of it or not, it needs to be respected. Which leads to me to not like making prognostications...as much as I'd like to more often.

... Don't worry so much about having a sensible narrative to describe every reason why you did something in detail. Because you'll likely end up making some of the reasons up. Our spidey senses are at work here too.My spidey senses determine too much of my play as it is. It's rare when I can come up with as much support for one of my selections, and rarer still when I can articulate it to my satisfaction.

On the whole, my results are better when I do, and even better when I can bounce them off someone capable of diverting me from a wrong-headed position by recognizing flaws or omissions in my logic as opposed to touting me onto another horse.

So there you go, GS, like the fabled woman in the song: You'll have to swallow your SPIDER sense to catch the "post-post conversion" to Try to FLY. :D

BTW, GS, further research revealed:

http://musiced.about.com/od/famousmusicians1/tp/loveaffairs.htm
George Sands (http://www.chopin.pl/galeria/gal-38.html)
George Sands (1804 - 1876) - Another of Fryderyk Franciszek Chopin's famous love affair. George Sands was a French writer whose real name was Aurore Dudevant. She was older than Chopin by six years, was divorced and had two children. George Sands was forced to part ways with Chopin in 1847 because of her son's disapproval of their relationship.Very interesting literary reference to a woman who lived life on her own terms. Coincidently, the allergic poster you remind me of used the name of a similarly independent female celebrity as a pseudonym on the Rag Board.;)

What do you think my spidey senses are telling me?

[George Sands]

Indulto,

I'm terribly sorry, but when you go into a particular writing style, I have the worst time understanding what it is that you are trying to say, and why it is that you are trying to say it. Please do not take this string off topic. If you would like to discuss something or somebody from a different website, then by all means post the address, go over there, start a string, and I will read it and see if I want to reply. Is that fair enough on my part? I do hope that if you plan on taking us to the Ragozin site, you will remember to post there what you posted here about how you use the DRF speed rating and variant to back up your position about "inflated" speed figures. That will make for some high-level enjoyment. I am sure.

[Indulto]

I'm terribly sorry, but when you go into a particular writing style, I have the worst time understanding what it is that you are trying to say, and why it is that you are trying to say it.GS,
I see your tactics haven’t changed. Feel free to send me a PM if you want to discuss old times. In the meantime, I’m sure others who haven’t already been exposed to your charm, wit, and debating skills will be as entertained by them as you are by my use or abuse of speed figures, depending upon your varying ability to comprehend my posts. Now that I know that you’re here, I’ll sit back and enjoy the show myself.

[George Sands]

Indulto,

There isn't going to be any show. I'll send you a private message, and we will lay this matter to rest.

[bigmack]

BTW wasn't George Sands a famous magician? It was as if you magically appeared out of nowhere.
I'm aghast, dulto, at your being ill aware of the the woman author who would stroll in mens clothing in Paris cira the mid 1880's who was romatically linked to Freddie Chopin and the great Franz Lizst. Many still call the Baroness by the pluralized last name of Sands though to maintain fact, it was Amantine-Luile-Aurore Dupin who took the pen name of George Sand to enliven her life as a feminist in the mid 80's in the rich era of French artistic life.

[Indulto]

I'm aghast, dulto, at your being ill aware of the the woman author who would stroll in mens clothing in Paris cira the mid 1880's who was romatically linked to Freddie Chopin and the great Franz Lizst. Many still call the Baroness by the pluralized last name of Sands though to maintain fact, it was Amantine-Luile-Aurore Dupin who took the pen name of George Sand to enliven her life as a feminist in the mid 80's in the rich era of French artistic life.BgM,
Not sure whether you read post #24 or not, but I guess you Liberal Arts majors had time for that stuff. :D

[bigmack]

BgM,
Not sure whether you read post #24 or not, but I guess you Liberal Arts majors had time for that stuff.
Touche' Dulto. Never underestimate the comprehensive power of liberal arts. I'll have to pay closer attention to the dorsal end of your posts, as with p24. Meanwhile, I've taken notice that you had to look up the contrived GeorgeS persona and have subtracted 6 points on your file. Good luck in the future.