Wood Memorial / Santa Anita Derby / Illinois Derby

[PaceAdvantage]

Wood Memorial
Early Pace: In a word, QUICK. Nobiz is adding blinkers, Flashstorm and Summer Doldrums should all be up close.
Late Pace: Any Given Saturday and Reptillian Smarts both figure to be closing late.

Any Given Saturday
Sightseeing
Summer Doldrums
Santa Anita Derby
Early Pace: Could see a speed duel here between some combination of King of the Roxy, Black Seventeen and Liquidity.
Late Pace: Boutrous and Sam P. would benefit the most from a contested early pace.

Sam P.
King of the Roxy
Boutrous
Illinois Derby
Early Pace: Of the three races, this one appears to be the least intense early on. Any number of runners might make the front end, but none REALLY wants to be there.
Late Pace: Reporting For Duty and Sacrifice Bunt are the best closers, but will they have enough early pace to make their late runs effective?

Cobalt Blue
Reporting For Duty
Catman Running

[the_fat_man]

Yo, Boss, while I'm right there with you when it comes to AGS

do you really think that Sightseeing is better than NoCount?

SD gets a better setup and I can see him being 3rd but NoCount off the board?

As for Cali, I think the Pletcher barn clearly knows which is the better horse between Sam P and KOTR; and something tells me that there's a significant gap between them.

[the_fat_man]

However, a number of (non number) positives to consider in the case of Sam P.

1) Dominguez won't be NEEDLESSLY wide

2) Dominguez won't move too soon or be spanking him, needlessly, on the turn

3) should a hole become available he'll take it (unlike Gomez who waited, jerked, and swung outside Poor Hunter in the stretch)

As for KOTR : Prado OFF, MIG on ---- need I say more?

[PaceAdvantage]

I suppose if they were giving out awards for "Best Longshot Place Picks" I'd win that hands down today....but thus far on the win end....bleh!

[BIG RED]

odds slucked

[the_fat_man]

I suppose if they were giving out awards for "Best Longshot Place Picks" I'd win that hands down today....but thus far on the win end....bleh!

Don't despair, BOSS, NoCount got everything his own way and ran straight for a change. He's supposed to win under those circumstances. Better odds for others in the Derby.

Good picking.

[whobet]

Results
AQU R8 Wood MEM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st 2-Nobiz Like Shobiz $3.40 $2.60 $2.10
2nd 3-Sightseeing - $7.20 $3.20
3rd 1A-Any Given Saturday - - $2.10
4th 5-Summer Doldrums

$2.00 EXACTA 2-3 $26.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA 2-3-1 $48.40
$2.00 PICK 3 3 of 3 1/5/2 $22.80
$2.00 DOUBLE 5/2 $13.00

Scratched:1-Cowtown Cat

[DanG]

Don't despair, BOSS, NoCount got everything his own way and ran straight for a change. He's supposed to win under those circumstances.
Really?

True, he had the shortest path…but…

Asked early…shut down on the back… asked entering far turn…shut down mid-turn… asked again in the lane hard.

That is far from an ideal way to ration a thoroughbred’s energy IMHO.

Lets give the animal a little more of what he’s due. He has yet to spit the bit once and that’s more than can be said for most on this trail.

[whobet]

Santa Anita Derby on Apr 7 2007
Race 6 1 1/8M Dirt

Purse: $750000.00

# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
9 Tiago Mike E. Smith 60.60 23.80 10.00
8 King of the Roxy Richard Migliore 6.40 4.60
2 Sam P. Ramon A. Dominguez 3.20

Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 9/8 382.80
Trifecta 9/8/2 1724.20
Superfecta 9/8/2/5 6405.80
Double 4/9 98.60
Pick 3 5/4/9 12796.80

Scratched: None

[whobet]

ILLINOIS DERBY
Hawthorne on Apr 7 2007
Race 7 1 1/8M Dirt

Purse: $500000.00

# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
4 Cowtown Cat Fernando Jara 9.00 5.20 4.60
3 Reporting for Duty Christopher A. Emigh 16.20 7.40
2 Bold Start Larry Melancon 4.60

Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 4/3 117.20
Trifecta 4/3/2 513.40
Superfecta 4/3/2/1 2081.00
Pick 3 4/1/4 352.00

Scratched: None

[whobet]

The Weasley Chaulk eator's picks

ILLINOIS DERBY
HAW Race 07
4 - COWTOWNCAT(BrisUltraPP)
3 - REPORTINGFORDUTY
9 - LOVEDUBAI
7 - CATMANRUNNING
-------------------------------------------------
Wood Mem
AQU Race 08
2 - NOBIZLIKESHOBIZ(Punchy)(BrisPick)(BrisUltraPP)
1A - ANYGIVENSATURDAY(Cliff Smith)
3 - SIGHTSEEING
5 - SUMMERDOLDRUMS
--------------------------------------------------
SA Race 06
3 - BWANABULL
2 - SAMP.
8 - KINGOFTHEROXY(Cliff Smith)
9 - TIAGO