Hard Spun may skip Bluegrass AND Derby

[bobphilo]

First we have Rick Violette training his horse according to an erroneous Beyer figure (later corrected). Now we Hard Spun’s trainer, Larry Jones saying that not only may he skip the Bluegrass (possibly a good idea) but also the Derby as well since he has a theory that the Churchill surface is “somewhat akin” to Oaklawn and he didn’t run well in the Rebel at Oaklawn.

All he had to do was count paths and beaten lengths to realize that had he not gone wide he could have won the Rebel. Imagine depriving arguably the strongest contender in the Derby of his chance because of some perceived similarity between tracks and inability to judge his own horse’s performance.

The only good thing is that the horse will have a serious workout at Churchill (rather than surrogate Oaklawn) this week, and he will decide based on that. One off work and he may be out of the Derby.


What is with these guys???

Bob

[mannyberrios]

I do not think so. Hard Spun broke from the outside (six post, ran wide, lost two lenghts, ran real good in the final strechthat was real deep,came in forth had a 95 Beyer) If that race really counted, and saw that he was braking from the six hole, they would have taken him out of that race. Oaklawn park has a serious track bias problem, and they better fix it, or else they will not attract any good horses for the meet. That race was just a morning workout for Hard Spun and for the first time in his life he had problems. He will be allright come derby time

[bobphilo]

I do not think so. Hard Spun broke from the outside (six post, ran wide, lost two lenghts, ran real good in the final strechthat was real deep,came in forth had a 95 Beyer) If that race really counted, and saw that he was braking from the six hole, they would have taken him out of that race. Oaklawn park has a serious track bias problem, and they better fix it, or else they will not attract any good horses for the meet. That race was just a morning workout for Hard Spun and for the first time in his life he had problems. He will be allright come derby time

Exactly. This horse is my Derby pick if Jones comes to his senses and lets him run. He had a bad trip against the bias in the Rebel and still ran decently and Jones is talking about taking him out of the Derby because he doesn't realize that and because he thinks Oaklawn is "slightly akin to Churchill".
He definetly showed he belongs in the Lane's End, but Jones has it in his head that he still has to prove something something about his ability to run at Churchill. The scary thing is that he is one poor workout away from being deprived of his chance.
One always see's the connections overly optimistc about horses' Derby chances. I can't believe how badly this trainer is underestimating his horse's chances.

Bob

[mannyberrios]

:ThmbUp: I am sure that Hard Spun connections know excactly what they are doing, they knew from the begining that he would have problems in that race at Oaklawn Park, but that was not a graded steaks race,but they put him in that race to see how he would run against that track bias.To me he ran a real good race, and he is coming along real good. The trainer is playing possum with the press. I am a fan of Hard Spun win or lose.

[bobphilo]

:ThmbUp: I am sure that Hard Spun connections know excactly what they are doing, they knew from the begining that he would have problems in that race at Oaklawn Park, but that was not a graded steaks race,but they put him in that race to see how he would run against that track bias.To me he ran a real good race, and he is coming along real good. The trainer is playing possum with the press. I am a fan of Hard Spun win or lose.

I certainly hope so, Manny. Maybe Jones is just talking in trainer-speak, but I've learned to never assume a horses connections know what they're doing nor underestimate some trainers' capacity for stupidity.
I'd be delighted if you get to say, "I told you so" as Hard Spun steps into the Churchill starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

What is Manny's pt. about the Rebel or whatever not being a graded stakes race? Did anybody understand that?

[mannyberrios]

I am sorry. What I meant was that the Rebel was not a race to qualify for the derby,so it was not a important race for Hard Spun to win. Like I said, it was a work out for him.

[bobphilo]

I am sorry. What I meant was that the Rebel was not a race to qualify for the derby,so it was not a important race for Hard Spun to win. Like I said, it was a work out for him.

I knew what you meant, Manny. I mistakenly said the race was the Rebel where Hard Spun supposedly disapponinted, but I think it was really the Southwest Stakes - which is even less important.

Today was the day of Hard Spun's crucial workout at Churchill. Hope it was up to Jones' standards.

Bob

[Ron]

Well the track at Churchill was frozen so no Hard Spun in the Blue Grass.

[mannyberrios]

That is O.K. by me. Hard spun is running once a month. We dont want to burn him out before the derby.

[bobphilo]

That is O.K. by me. Hard spun is running once a month. We dont want to burn him out before the derby.

That is providing Jones lets him run there since he wasn't able to "prove" to him that he can handle the Churchill track.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

Okay now IM more confused, what do you mean when you say:

... If that race really counted, and saw that he was braking from the six hole, they would have taken him out of that race. ...

What's the advantage to doing that? So they can pull him and place him in another graded stakes race the following week? Ummmm? :confused:

It almost seems to me, to be the other way round. If the race doesnt count, then you can scratch and look for better. You dont want to scratch from a graded event if you need money..

Aside from this minor pt. I get a real weird feeling from the connections. LIke the owners are trying to sell a piece of him or something and they dont want to risk him on the track until the deal is complete. Sounds far fetched but otherwise cant understand what the connections are doing with this horse.

After winning the Lanes End; Jones was all smiles. The interview was curious, Jeneane I think asked him what's next and he said something like "hopefully the derby" and then she said "I mean what's the next race on his schedule" and he hesistated and said the Bluegrass but wasnt real sure...

THe explanation seems preposterous; they trained over the OP track 3x and didnt feel there was a problem, now they want to train over KEE I guess it is to see if there is a problem..?

[mannyberrios]

Yes! I remember that. Hard Spun was working bullets at Oaklawn Park. But at that track if the race is a mile or more you cant brake from outside the four post or the five post because if there is speed on the inside of you, you are dead. It looks like Hard Spun is the center of attention and the trainer is a low profil type of trainer. Oaklawn Park is his Home base, most of the horses he trains are based there, so he has to be very careful what he says.

[JPinMaryland]

another guy said the home stretch is short there so you dont have alot of time to make up any ground you lost on the turn or back stretch..

[bobphilo]

another guy said the home stretch is short there so you dont have alot of time to make up any ground you lost on the turn or back stretch..

The length of the stretch wasn't a factor in in Hard Spun's Oaklawn race. He was tiring late and, if anything, a longer run would probably have resulted in a worse finish. The wide trip was what did him in. Subtract his ground loss from his beaten lengths and he wins the race, regardless of stretch length.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

Bob, Yeah I was kinda thinking the same thing. THe other guy put it a bit differently, he said something akin to: "ground loss at OP is worth more because the home stretch is shorter..."

Confusing.

I watched the race, but cant recall now how tired did Hard Spun look after that race?

[cnollfan]

Oaklawn had a strong inside bias the day of the Rebel, Feb. 19, but for the most part this year the track has played very fair in routes.

[Robert Fischer]

In the Southwest Hard Spun didn't break on top and Pino let the horse run wide. The Fat Man had a pretty good analysis of the trip on an earlier thread.

That Turfway track bias aided Hard Spun. He is bred to like poly and that track was playing fast and very kind to forwardly placed horses (the reason Sedgefield was the key over twitlight meteor).
Keeneland home of the Bluegrass Stakes, is a poly surface that is very tough on front-runners in a route distance. Not a compliment to HS style.

So Oaklawn supposedly moved him back , and Turfway moved him up. Prior to that he never beat anything, and all his wins were wire-to-wire, lead at every call...
The loss in the Southwest was possibly a negative factor because it coincided with a moderate class increase.

The horse should be a toss for any of the classic distances, but he has great stamina breeding, he has speed and he is just a great looking horse.
A race like the lanes end could hide actual improvement (although it isn't really hiding any secret value if everyone thinks he was a top horse, and simply thinks he ran the equivalent of a good dirt prep race without considering bias...)

[JPinMaryland]

If the Lane's End is hiding real improvement why would he be a toss for the derby? :confused:

[mannyberrios]

:cool: :jump: :) Hard Spun had a monster workout, so that means that were going to the derby.

[Charlie D]

:cool: :jump: :) Hard Spun had a monster workout, so that means that were going to the derby.


Nowt beats seeing decent horses going head to head and even though i think he needs to improve a tad to win.


if yer not it it, yer can't win it, so a good decision imo

[bobphilo]

:cool: :jump: :) Hard Spun had a monster workout, so that means that were going to the derby.

Yep, Jones says he's in. While I admire the fact that he doesn't want to start a horse in the Derby unless he really thinks he belongs (an attitude that I wish more owners/trainers shared), his obsession with the surface almost cost the horse his chance if he had a poor work.
Actually, since the Churchill super is pretty well known for his "special maintance" on Derby day, to assume the Churchill surface will be the same on the 1st Saturday in May as in mid-April is pretty naive.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

Why should I toss this horse from the derby? I cant find objective evidence that suggests he cant win from the front end. I realize he has not been tested on the front w/ pressure but that is not the same has having hard evidence he cannot do it... Is there any evidence that he cant get this or just that he hasnt been tested enuf?

[Ron]

Why should I toss this horse from the derby?

Because there will be 19 other horses? ;)

[bobphilo]

Because there will be 19 other horses? ;)

Of which few, if any, are faster than him, especially considering his wide trip in Lane's End.

Bob

[bobphilo]

I never cease to be amused at how people think that a horse setting a moderate pace is considered to be under pressure because another horse just happens to be galloping along beside him on the lead, while a horse setting a pace too fast for the other's to match is considered to have an easy lead. Rubbish! The horses muscles burn glycogen according to the pace and are unaware if there is another horse running next to him at the time or not.

Hard Spun has shown he can win while setting a fast pace and by rating and closing, despite going wide in the process - and earning good figures either way, despite made-up criticisms.



Bob

[JPinMaryland]

ALl right, then the next logical question is this:

Who is more likely to wire the field: Hard Spun or Cowtown Cat?

Any guesses? :jump:

[gIracing]

:lol: I never cease to be amused at how people think that a horse setting a moderate pace is considered to be under pressure because another horse just happens to be galloping along beside him on the lead, while a horse setting a pace too fast for the other's to match is considered to have an easy lead. Rubbish! The horses muscles burn glycogen according to the pace and are unaware if there is another horse running next to him at the time or not.

Hard Spun has shown he can win while setting a fast pace and by rating and closing, despite going wide in the process - and earning good figures either way, despite made-up criticisms.



Bob

:lol:

I thought I was the only one.

Nothing is funnier than someone looking at a line, or even worse, an actual LIVE race and seeing a horse go 21 and 2, 44 and 4 and say "but did that easy, he's by himself on the lead"

:D

So under that premise, two horses in the back of the pack that happen to be galloping together are "dueling" as well because they happened to be next to each other.

The only time dueling counts is in the stretch. 44 and change is just fast, if he is "dueling" with one horse or the entire field

[Ron]

ALl right, then the next logical question is this:

Who is more likely to wire the field: Hard Spun or Cowtown Cat?

Any guesses? :jump:



More Cowtown!!

[mannyberrios]

:jump: More Hard Spun!

[LRL Racing]

I will let J. Larry know about this website and hopefully he may add a comment or two to answer the questions. Larry has already thanked everyone for helping him train Hard Spun in the Racing Form a few weeks back.

[Stevie Belmont]

I like Hard Spun for a few reasons. I firmly believe he will handle the distance. I love his cruising speed and ability to put himself in the race without much effort. Big shot in 2 weeks.