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misscashalot
04-06-2007, 07:07 PM
Aqueduct Main - First 3 days

After two days on a surface listed wet, today it was listed as fast. I often wonder what fast means immediately afer being wet? Well at 6f, 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs of the 19 races, 13 (68%) were won by a front tier runner. Speed is king at these 3 distances. The mile distance had a different story. Only 1 of 8 scored from up front. The post seems to be towards the middle to outside at all distances.

Of the 27 races for 3up Males, 18 were won by the top 2 bet choices. This situation remains the same at all classifications.

Tomorrow starts the real racing season in NY. Up to now the wise guys were living off each other. Now it's living off the suckers. 5 stakes. Pleasant Colony $75,000. Bayshore G3 $150,000. Wood G1 $750,000. Carter G1 $300,000. Exce BC G3 $200,000.

Interesting to note that they ran no 2 turn races until today. I wonder if the NYRA is concerned about the quality of the surface. I'm guessing the rail will magically be a speedway, and with fractions to pop our eyes.

Regulars arrive for the day: Cornelio Velasquez, John Velazquez, Castellano. Flores comes from SA riding a Frankel even money ML fav in the 7th. It's an entry and Flores named on both. The 1 is strong, 1A weaker. One must be declared.

Joe Talamo is winning like a champ, but shows signs of not being familiar with perculiarities that the surface presents. Overall he gets an A. The group did well even with the slim pickings at the meet up to now, and approach this "new season" slowly. "There's always another race - no rush"

john del riccio
04-06-2007, 07:21 PM
When 20 claimers go 108.3, something ain't right. Red Crisader is a nice horse but thats a little over the top.


JOhn

bobphilo
04-06-2007, 07:38 PM
Hmmm, Nobiz draws what may be a golden rail and his main rival AGS draws outside with Aqueduct's short run to the 1st turn. Interesting.

Bob

misscashalot
04-06-2007, 07:55 PM
Hmmm, Nobiz draws what may be a golden rail and his main rival AGS draws outside with Aqueduct's short run to the 1st turn. Interesting.

Bob

....short run to the turn. They'll be plenty of time before the turn to assure an honest pace. It appears that there is no real rabbit here. A first fraction of 23.8 will be OK. Faster will be a problem for those on the front.. Nobiz won on this surface in last years Remsen. Scored big time. Cowtown never on this surface.

bobphilo
04-06-2007, 08:17 PM
....short run to the turn. They'll be plenty of time before the turn to assure an honest pace. It appears that there is no real rabbit here. A first fraction of 23.8 will be OK. Faster will be a problem for those on the front.. Nobiz won on this surface in last years Remsen. Scored big time. Cowtown never on this surface.

There could well be enough time to the 1st turn to assure an honest pace. Actually I was refering to the ground on the 1st turn that outside horses usually lose at 9f at Aqu. Advantage Nobiz over AGS. Plus he pressed a much faster pace in the FOY than AGS did at Tampa Bay.

Bob

misscashalot
04-06-2007, 08:18 PM
There could well be enough time to the 1st turn to assure an honest pace. Actually I was refering to the ground on the 1st turn that outside horses usually lose at 9f at Aqu. Advantage Nobiz over AGS. Plus he pressed a much faster pace in the FOY than AGS did at Tampa Bay.

Bob

which of the two would you rather own?

bobphilo
04-06-2007, 08:34 PM
which of the two would you rather own?

Ah, that could be a different question. I'd have to take a deeper look at their pedigrees. Of course, if Nobiz continues his bearing in routine, it could give an owner ulcers. LOL

Bob

misscashalot
04-06-2007, 08:51 PM
Ah, that could be a different question. I'd have to take a deeper look at their pedigrees. Of course, if Nobiz continues his bearing in routine, it could give an owner ulcers. LOL

Bob

I think Id rather own AGS

By the way. In the last 16 runnings of the Wood. winners: 8 Fav, 7 second bet choice 94%

bobphilo
04-07-2007, 06:28 PM
There could well be enough time to the 1st turn to assure an honest pace. Actually I was refering to the ground on the 1st turn that outside horses usually lose at 9f at Aqu. Advantage Nobiz over AGS. Plus he pressed a much faster pace in the FOY than AGS did at Tampa Bay.

Bob

As predicted, the post position draw was a big factor in Nobiz's win. Plus he showed he couild handle a fast pace better than his rivals.
AGS got a lousy ride, pressing the fast pace 4 wide 1st turn. Had he taken back early he could have placed 2nd.

Bob

john del riccio
04-07-2007, 07:05 PM
As predicted, the post position draw was a big factor in Nobiz's win. Plus he showed he couild handle a fast pace better than his rivals.
AGS got a lousy ride, pressing the fast pace 4 wide 1st turn. Had he taken back early he could have placed 2nd.

Bob

Bob,

I AGREE, that was not this guys game. SD obviously couldn't handle the pace and AGS should have just sat the trip and ran his race from the 3/8 pole to the wire. Putting him 2 lengths off of it was a very bad choice.
Shugs horse ran an excellent race.

John

bobphilo
04-07-2007, 07:12 PM
Bob,

I AGREE, that was not this guys game. SD obviously couldn't handle the pace and AGS should have just sat the trip and ran his race from the 3/8 pole to the wire. Putting him 2 lengths off of it was a very bad choice.
Shugs horse ran an excellent race.

John

Good job, John with your pace figures that showed that Nobiz had the big pace advantage. Maybe Velazquez should have read them before the race? :D

Bob