HAW Derby

[john del riccio]

For those interested in seeing this in PDF format that also include all of the ratings for the horses running in the HAW Derby, please simply click on the link below.

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/freebie.pdf

The Hawthorne Derby from Hawthorne Racecourse shows many very significant differences in the Henry Kuck ratings as compared to the Beyer Figures included in the DRF. There are always going to differences because our methodologies are very different but the differences for this particular race are radical. On the Beyer scale, 1.5 points is equivalent to about one
length and on the Henry Kuck ratings scale one point is equal to one length regardless of distance.


Horse
DATE
KUCK
BEYER
==========
Sacrifice Bunt
DATE 1/12
HKR 71
BEYER 81

Bold Start
DATE 3/3
HKR 78
BEYER 98

Reporting For Duty
DATE 2/16
HKR 75
BEYER 93

Cowtown Cat
DATE 3/10
HKR 78
BEYER 88

Cobalt Blue .
DATE 3/17
HKR 78
BEYER 96

Quite Acceptable
DATE 3/18
HKR 73
BEYER 87

Catman Running
DATE 3/3
HKR 76
BEYER 88

Family Talk
DATE 1/25
HKR 72
BEYER 83

Love Dubai - -- --


Sacrifice Bunt and Family Talk look reasonable on relative terms but not on absolute terms. The differences start to become greater when you look at Quite Acceptable and Catman Running. The Beyers for these two horses are almost identical (87 & 88 respectively) but the HK ratings shows a difference of three lengths (73 and 76 respectively); a significant difference. Reporting for Duty was assigned a 93 Beyer; 6 points faster than Cat Man Running. These six points translate to four lengths. However, the HK ratings show Catman Running one length faster than Reprting for Duty (76 & 75 respectively); a total difference of four lengths. The most glaring disparity is that of the difference between Cobalt Blue and Cowtown cat. Cobalt Blue was assigned a 96 Beyer and Cowtown cat was assigned an 88 Beyer; a difference of a little more than five lengths. The HK ratings show them identical as both of them earned a 78 variant rating. Bold Start and Cowtown Cat are almost identical as both their HK ratings are 78. Bold Start and Cobalt Blue are almost identical when comparing the Beyers. However, keep in mind, Bold Start earned that rating in a one turn 7 1/2f race, not a two turn affair.


CLASS:
======
Bold Start, Reporting for Duty, Cowtown Cat, and Cobalt Blue, and Catman running have faced better competition.

PACE:
=====

Cobalt Blue controlled the race he won last out where he had a pretty easy time of it up front but he will likely have some company today from Bold Start and potentially Cowtown Cat as well; there will likely be no free lunch today.


VARIANT:
========
In two turns races, Cowtown Cat and Cobalt Blue have shown similiar talent with one glaring exception. Cowtown Cat doesn't need to have the lead to win, a very nice attribute to have. Catman Running ran a much improved race last out and continues to train well. Reporting for Duty was the victom of an absolutely paceless race last out; that all but spells defeat for a deep closer such as him. BOLD START looks like he appreciates one turn much more than two turns at this point in his career


Here is our betting line:

HORSE ODDS
============================
Cowtown Cat 3-1
Cobalt Blue 4-1
Catman Running 9-2
Reporting For Duty 6-1

[Robert Fischer]

Cobalt Blue was under a pretty good hold in the San Felipe. I don't think if someone would have wanted the lead that he would have any problem sitting 2nd or 3rd until the stretch. Cowtown Cat is the more seasoned horse but is not a pure 9f horse. I think that if Blue holds form or even improves that Cowtown Cat will need to sit an excellent trip under Jara and run big to win.

[john del riccio]

Cobalt Blue was under a pretty good hold in the San Felipe. I don't think if someone would have wanted the lead that he would have any problem sitting 2nd or 3rd until the stretch. Cowtown Cat is the more seasoned horse but is not a pure 9f horse. I think that if Blue holds form or even improves that Cowtown Cat will need to sit an excellent trip under Jara and run big to win.

Robert,

I agree, any horse that runs a race like COBALT BLUE ran first time 2 turns against experienced routers in a stake is an above average animal. But until
he gets eyeballed or gets dirt kicked in his face, no one can be sure how he'll react. There is much more pace in this race than what he faced last out, not
extremely so, but he will not be idling on the front end this time which will test his meddle.

John

[the_fat_man]

Cobalt Blue was under a pretty good hold in the San Felipe. I don't think if someone would have wanted the lead that he would have any problem sitting 2nd or 3rd until the stretch. Cowtown Cat is the more seasoned horse but is not a pure 9f horse. I think that if Blue holds form or even improves that Cowtown Cat will need to sit an excellent trip under Jara and run big to win.

I disagree. Though CB was under a good hold, a better ride by Gomez (who often rides as if he were Espinoza) probably gets the job done. CB was vulnerable but was just challenged at the wrong time. The timing of the bid by Gomez was premature (among other mistakes).

I haven't looked at the race yet but I'd be cautious about Cowtown Cat; PERFECT setup in the Gotham.

[Valuist]

The Hawthorne Derby is run on the grass; usually in the fall. Tomorrow's race is the Illinois Derby.

[john del riccio]

The Hawthorne Derby is run on the grass; usually in the fall. Tomorrow's race is the Illinois Derby.

Woops........