King of the Roxy ----

[the_fat_man]

Not having looked at the PPs (are they posted?) for the Santa Anita Derby yet, I notice that the King is entered, along with Sam P, from the Pletcher barn.

Now, Liquidity is not much (if memory serves me correctly) and neither is Sam P; although the latter did extend WEAK Hunter last time out.

And I know a little bit about Tiago and Level Red (both zzzzzzzzzzz).

So, arguably, one of the year's top 3 year olds, for anything up to 1 mile,

is asked to go an extra 1/8th against NADA for $750k.

Real happy to see the Mig scored the mount?

Rocking Chair

Roller Skate

should be a smooth trip

[Robert Fischer]

Worth a look. There may be some questions regarding distance. I haven't studied the horse. And I haven't studied the entries.

A bit of a dissapointing field for the SA Derby this year. Horses like Cobalt Blue and Stormello decided shipping was the way to prep.

Sam P. could be well backed by the public. Liquidity is not grade-I, but he is probably a little better at home than he is a shipper...

[keilan]

Not having looked at the PPs (are they posted?) for the Santa Anita Derby yet, I notice that the King is entered, along with Sam P, from the Pletcher barn.

Now, Liquidity is not much (if memory serves me correctly) and neither is Sam P; although the latter did extend WEAK Hunter last time out.

And I know a little bit about Tiago and Level Red (both zzzzzzzzzzz).

So, arguably, one of the year's top 3 year olds, for anything up to 1 mile,

is asked to go an extra 1/8th against NADA for $750k.

Real happy to see the Mig scored the mount?

Rocking Chair

Roller Skate

should be a smooth trip


Fats,

Just finished the first go-through on the Santa Anita Derby and I’m not convinced that “King of the Roxy” is capable of running 3 deep and winning this race.

I’m presently leaning towards (a 3-1 ML shot) Sam P.
whom is getting blinkers 1st time. I’m absolutely sure that blinkers will move this horse forward. My other choice is (a 12-1 ML horse) Boutrous that also gets the addition of blinkers and I again believe that this change will make him a contender here.

[Indulto]

... Now, Liquidity is not much (if memory serves me correctly) and neither is Sam P; although the latter did extend WEAK Hunter last time out.

... So, arguably, one of the year's top 3 year olds, for anything up to 1 mile,

is asked to go an extra 1/8th against NADA for $750k.

tfm,
I certainly can't eliminate a G2 winner at 2 and 3 stretching out for Team Valor and Pletcher. But Sam P. moved up last time with FTL proving he can handle this track and now gets blinkers along with your favorite jock, Dominguez. Liquidity only has to repeat his Sham to win here. I have to use all three in the top spot.

[Ron]

Give the bute back to Liquidity and he'll do just fine.

[Valuist]

Of the horses out of the Hutcheson that are running tomorrow, I like Bold Start's chances in Stickney better than King of the Roxy in Arcadia. Bold Start had some traffic issues, had to wait, then altered course to the outside. By that time it was too late to catch KotR, who still was fresh. KotR figures to get some pace pressure, while Bold Start will probably be near a soft pace.

[JPinMaryland]

9 out of 10 horses agree....Blinkers are the way to go!

What's the record for blinkers on in a derby prep race? 10 horse field, 9 blinker wearers, sounds like traffic problems to me. ANy of these horses prove they can negotiate traffic or do they get blocked on the turn?

[the_fat_man]

Of the horses out of the Hutcheson that are running tomorrow, I like Bold Start's chances in Stickney better than King of the Roxy in Arcadia. Bold Start had some traffic issues, had to wait, then altered course to the outside. By that time it was too late to catch KotR, who still was fresh. KotR figures to get some pace pressure, while Bold Start will probably be near a soft pace.

You really need to watch the HEADON of that race and see why KOTR ran such a better race than BS.

[JPinMaryland]

I know, I know. All my logical cells tell me not to bet on instincts. All the betting books and all the experts say: Dont bet on emotions, must be logical.

Screw them. Sometimes you just have to toss the book and go with your instincts.

Reason? Must beat FatMan and his pick. I dont know why, at this pt. I've been looking at the PPs too long to make coherent sense, probably the speech centers in my brain are no longer able to explain this...But I'm trusting that my cerebral cortex has already sorted it all out and it's trying to tell me: BEAT King of Roxy!

That's all I can say, Im sure down deep somewhere in my brain there's a reason for all this...

[the_fat_man]

I'm not crazy about this horse. I more intrigued to see how he'll handle the distance. He's a very nice horse that probably should be sprinting but could win the race on ability alone.
Chances are, the odds won't be worth a bet.


And, to say that Bold Start is better than he is (or ran better last out) is just crazy.

[JPinMaryland]

Gee, I thought you were big on him. This changes things...

You wonder why he hasnt tried 2 turns before, or if he has he's only tried it once. Not looking at the PPs right at this moment, going from memory. Even Pletcher said after last one they arent sure he can go a mile.

I think one thing that everyone must be thinking is if he wasnt distance challenged why hasnt he tried the distance yet. April is late in the game for this...

So what do you think? Pass this race? I'm looking to toss one or two favorites and try to score on exotics. Wide open race it would seem.

[the_fat_man]

Gee, I thought you were big on him. This changes things...

You wonder why he hasnt tried 2 turns before, or if he has he's only tried it once. Not looking at the PPs right at this moment, going from memory. Even Pletcher said after last one they arent sure he can go a mile.

I think one thing that everyone must be thinking is if he wasnt distance challenged why hasnt he tried the distance yet. April is late in the game for this...

So what do you think? Pass this race? I'm looking to toss one or two favorites and try to score on exotics. Wide open race it would seem.

If you watch this horse's races in the Saratoga Special, the Futurity and the Hutch, you get a sense of how hard knocking he really is. This is one tough SOB.

I think he's MUCH BETTER than Sam P. or anything else in the race < = 1M.

Pletcher knows he's distance challened.

There'll be better betting opportunities than this horse. Relax

[Robert Fischer]

What scares me about KOTR, is that I don't know if this is Pletchers gut feeling, or if this is Team Valor "taking a shot" in what looks to be a weak field... Looks like a 7furlong sprinter to me(pedigree and form), but is maybe the most talented horse in the race, so we have something to think about.

Hollendorfer's horse hasn't really gotten any consideration. This is a game animal who can rate and seems to enjoy stretching out. Hollendorfer is confident in this one and could actually stamp a ticket to Kentucky with a big effort here.

Liquidity will improve at home but this isn't a special horse. Liquidity would prefer to have the lead and Black 17 is an important factor here.

Sam P comes in with the best form. Dominguez will try to save something for the stretch.

[chickenhead]

Have to see how the track is playing, but it looks a might HOT up front to me. Liquidity, Level Red, 17, KOTR....nope. Sam P first choice, Boutrous and Bwana seconds.

[the_fat_man]

What scares me about KOTR, is that I don't know if this is Pletchers gut feeling, or if this is Team Valor "taking a shot" in what looks to be a weak field... Looks like a 7furlong sprinter to me(pedigree and form), but is maybe the most talented horse in the race, so we have something to think about.

Hollendorfer's horse hasn't really gotten any consideration. This is a game animal who can rate and seems to enjoy stretching out. Hollendorfer is confident in this one and could actually stamp a ticket to Kentucky with a big effort here.

Liquidity will improve at home but this isn't a special horse. Liquidity would prefer to have the lead and Black 17 is an important factor here.

Sam P comes in with the best form. Dominguez will try to save something for the stretch.

I agree. I also think the Prado to Mig issue with KOTR is HUGE.

My only issue with BB is that he had to work real hard to win last time out.

Dominguez on Sam P is HUGE. How much better does this horse perform last out with a better ride?

[bigmack]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/4_7_07_10_49_58.jpg

Full PP's:
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=SA&rd=04/07/2007&cty=USA&de=D&rn=6

[ELA]

What scares me about KOTR, is that I don't know if this is Pletchers gut feeling, or if this is Team Valor "taking a shot" in what looks to be a weak field... Looks like a 7furlong sprinter to me(pedigree and form), but is maybe the most talented horse in the race, so we have something to think about.

Hollendorfer's horse hasn't really gotten any consideration. This is a game animal who can rate and seems to enjoy stretching out. Hollendorfer is confident in this one and could actually stamp a ticket to Kentucky with a big effort here.

Liquidity will improve at home but this isn't a special horse. Liquidity would prefer to have the lead and Black 17 is an important factor here.

Sam P comes in with the best form. Dominguez will try to save something for the stretch.

Great point. There's the X factor.

Eric

[john del riccio]

Great point. There's the X factor.

Eric

My thinking is its Irwin.

John

[Valuist]

I'm not crazy about this horse. I more intrigued to see how he'll handle the distance. He's a very nice horse that probably should be sprinting but could win the race on ability alone.
Chances are, the odds won't be worth a bet.


And, to say that Bold Start is better than he is (or ran better last out) is just crazy.

If Melancon or McPeek were aware that the rail was tremendous at Haw today, Larry M probably (you'd HOPE) would ride a much more aggressive race. If he clears the first turn, he wins, not Cowtown Cat.

[the_fat_man]

If Melancon or McPeek were aware that the rail was tremendous at Haw today, Larry M probably (you'd HOPE) would ride a much more aggressive race. If he clears the first turn, he wins, not Cowtown Cat.

IF, yeah.

I didn't see the race but per the charts he was sucking up again. What else is new?

"raced close INSIDE and STEADIED lacking room throughout then HAD NO WINNING RALLY".


I realize Cowtown Cat is not much but this horse needs to actually RUN once in a while to get some respect.

[NY BRED]

KOTR was my single in the pick 3 and is my winter book bet
($100) ..

At least twice in the backstretch he looked beaten, and finally
does get beat by a 29-1 clone of Giacomo


I'm hoping Pletcher will run KOTR in the Derby, only due to
yesterday's Wood results.

Either way, I'm in deep poop:bang:

[Valuist]

IF, yeah.

I didn't see the race but per the charts he was sucking up again. What else is new?

"raced close INSIDE and STEADIED lacking room throughout then HAD NO WINNING RALLY".


I realize Cowtown Cat is not much but this horse needs to actually RUN once in a while to get some respect.

If any of the 3 (Cowtown Cat, Bold Start or Cobalt Blue) gets to the lead in 49 and change, they were going to win. Bold Start was the inner-most drawn of the 3. The reason the horse was steadying so much was because Melancon was fighting him. Bold Start was inside until the 2nd turn, when he had to come off the rail. Sorry but you didn't win even 2 wide at Haw yesterday. No, this isn't a Derby horse by any means, but yesterday was a very winnable race that saw poor judgement on the rider's part cost his mount the race.

[ELA]

Not that it wasn't a fluke, weak field, set up, etc. -- but I think Mig did an excellent job getting a horse -- who everyone thought was a sprinter, maybe a 7 or possibly a miler -- into a very good spot, got him to sit chilly, relax a bit, and then make a nice move to almost win.

Eric

[GMB@BP]

funny king of the roxy got the good ride and sam p got the bad ride....it was HUGE

[the_fat_man]

funny king of the roxy got the good ride and sam p got the bad ride....it was HUGE

The horse loses by 1/2 length and is wide 1st turn, widest 2nd turn and on the BS. Where's the good ride?

[john del riccio]

The horse loses by 1/2 length and is wide 1st turn, widest 2nd turn and on the BS. Where's the good ride?

and how was sam p a bad ride ? because he found himself in front on the clubhouse turn ?

john

[the_fat_man]

and how was sam p a bad ride ? because he found himself in front on the clubhouse turn ?

john

John

My complaint is with the wide effort by the Mig. I don't have a problem with Sam P's ride. Do you?

P.S.

contrary to what the commentators were saying, didn't you think that Sam P would 'show more speed' with the blinkers on? Especially from the inside?
I wondered why the blinkers were added, frankly.

And Dominguez did the right thing by "easing him" back a bit, just off the pace, when they hit the turn. And he went between horses (the hole) when they entered the stretch. He just didn't have enough.

[Robert Fischer]

and how was sam p a bad ride ? because he found himself in front on the clubhouse turn ?

john

The Cat Theif in Sam P came out a little bit more than the damside here along with the blinkers-on move. Sam P never was a closer, and is always just off the pace and was stretching out-- so for a horse that runs well late, I didn't like the equipment move:ThmbDown: and it wasn't a huge surprise to see him close up on the lead. Dominguez did about as good as he could have done there in the final results -3rd. He got the horse out almost too well, had him on the rail the whole time and didn't fight his horse. Maybe if he didn't break so dam well he could have got the horse to rate a bit more behind horses ... - but sometimes the horse just needs to relax and run a natural race.

Mig was confident on KOTR going through the first turn, Nakatani was a bit of a smartass(and smart) and had Liquidity in the 2 or 3 path keeping KOTR wide after the turn. Gryder and Level Red made a move going into the quarter pole keeping KOTR off the rail . When Sam P dropped back a little and Nakatani glanced over his shoulder going into the quarter pole, Migliore began to set KOTR into a drive. - Maybe a bit early in hindsight now that we've seen Tiago come up and nip him at the wire, not a terrible ride IMO.

[the_fat_man]

Mig was confident on KOTR going through the first turn, Nakatani was a bit of a smartass(and smart) and had Liquidity in the 2 or 3 path keeping KOTR wide after the turn. Gryder and Level Red made a move going into the quarter pole keeping KOTR off the rail . When Sam P dropped back a little and Nakatani glanced over his shoulder going into the quarter pole, Migliore began to set KOTR into a drive. - Maybe a bit early in hindsight now that we've seen Tiago come up and nip him at the wire, not a terrible ride IMO.

You know before hand that I thought KOTR was a better horse than Sam P.
You also knew that I thought the distance would be a problem.

In the absence of headons (and even if there were, SA doesn't have backstretch headons), here's why the ride was VERY POOR.

You have a horse that's distance challenged. Why is he widest on the 1st turn, widest on the backstretch, and when he moves on the 2nd turn, he's WIDEST again. I can deal with the premature bid but does it have to be WIDE? Why can't he just sit behind Liquidity instead of 2 -3 lengths outside of him (on the backstretch) and follow him through the stretch rather than having to push the horse to go wide into an already contested pace? Liquidity is already bidding. All he needs to do is WAIT. If he waits a few seconds OR if he's a single path closer to the rail, HE WINS.

This was a DUMBASS ride by a journeyman.

I realize, it's in hindsight but with the assumption that the horse might not get the distance, you really need to ride a little more with your head. Notice how Tiago, with Mike Smith, who's taken all sorts of hits on this forum, wasn't wide around the 2nd turn. Mike was inside. And Mig is the smarter of the 2.

yeah

[Robert Fischer]

Why is he widest on the 1st turn, widest on the backstretch, and when he moves on the 2nd turn, he's WIDEST again. I can deal with the premature bid but does it have to be WIDE? Why can't he just sit behind Liquidity instead of 2 -3 lengths outside of him (on the backstretch) and follow him through the stretch rather than having to push the horse to go wide into an already contested pace? Liquidity is already bidding. All he needs to do is WAIT. If he waits a few seconds OR if he's a single path closer to the rail, HE WINS.

This was a DUMBASS ride by a journeyman.




Overconfidence? Stupidity? Must have been bad to go from 45k to 15k in the final strides :bang:

Nakatani may have even "psyched" him out with those glances. Intentional or not Migliore was not content to let Liquidity get first jump although he would have saved about a length or two and still had some horse. Wonder if Dominguez would have won with KOTR?

-btw. I ended up saving some money on Corinthian after I realized it wasn't necessarily a blowout win - LUCKY too:ThmbUp:

[the_fat_man]

Wonder if Dominguez would have won with KOTR?

-btw. I ended up saving some money on Corinthian after I realized it wasn't necessarily a blowout win - LUCKY too:ThmbUp:

Dominguez, at least, is inside. He wins for fun.

As for Corinthian: looks like he'd have competed.

That was a fast race. Much faster than the Wood (excepting the 1st quarter).

[GMB@BP]

ground loss is the most overrated stat you can find, its like the friggen holy grail ever since the sheets got popular, king of the roxy was more a victim of the pace then he was a wide trip, have not seen that even mentioned.

[GMB@BP]

i have also not seen it mentioned but the outside paths have been good all meet at santa anita, but that dispells sheet type logic so its cant be true