To Hedge or not to hedge. . .

[BigJake]

I hit the first 2 legs of a pick three Sunday and had 2 horses in the final leg ( a MCl 5K). If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet. I hedged my bet and bet $10 on the next two lowest odds(5-1 and 8-1). Of course a 12-1 2nd time starter (who barely finished his first race) won and I dumped it all.

1st question - does anyone have any good advice on whether to hedge or not hedge on the last legs of multi races exotics

2nd question - should you ever end a multi race exotic on a MCl 5k. (That may have been the dumbest thing I did).

Big Jake

[misscashalot]

I hit the first 2 legs of a pick three Sunday and had 2 horses in the final leg ( a MCl 5K). If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet. I hedged my bet and bet $10 on the next two lowest odds(5-1 and 8-1). Of course a 12-1 2nd time starter (who barely finished his first race) won and I dumped it all.

1st question - does anyone have any good advice on whether to hedge or not hedge on the last legs of multi races exotics

2nd question - should you ever end a multi race exotic on a MCl 5k. (That may have been the dumbest thing I did).

Big Jake

1) Experience teaches me NOT to hedge. Sit back and enjoy the thrill of being live. The result you had, Ive had too many times, so now I sit.

2) You did nothing wrong betting a cheap race. I wouldnt second guess myself if I were you. The next time youll be a winner.

[ranchwest]

I have a very bad record hedging. Not that I've done it a whole lot, but probably enough to know it shouldn't be in my tool box. YMMV

[misscashalot]

I hit the first 2 legs of a pick three Sunday and had 2 horses in the final leg ( a MCl 5K). If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet. I hedged my bet and bet $10 on the next two lowest odds(5-1 and 8-1). Of course a 12-1 2nd time starter (who barely finished his first race) won and I dumped it all.

1st question - does anyone have any good advice on whether to hedge or not hedge on the last legs of multi races exotics

2nd question - should you ever end a multi race exotic on a MCl 5k. (That may have been the dumbest thing I did).

Big Jake

More thoughts about your post. By hedging for $10 each you effectively made your initial two, now the hedge horses. If the $70 won you would have collect $70 for $38. Less than 1-1. The $130 now a 5/2. Handicapping aside, you put yourself in a bad position. However, I personally would not hedge under any circumstance.

Youre assuming a cheap 5K Mdn race should not be bet because you cant handle it, but they actually are more formful than the higher claiming prices. So I'd say that you must recongize any weakness you may have, and attack it, not blame it on its cheapness. That last leg that you bet was what they gave you and everyone else. You gotta play what they serve up, and no two are the same. You gotta love it.

[AwolAtPA]

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If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet.



consider betting more on the pick3.

for an $18 bet, my GUESS, is that you had a dollar, 3 by 3 by 2
the Will Pay 70 or 130 says that all winners would be under ten dollars.
ie, not all Favorite/Chalk but solid contenders.

so, when you have finished your ticket, stop handicapping and form a good bet using horses that you do NOT like. So for the first two legs, remove the, EXPECTED, longer shot, so you are using YOUR two solid contenders from the first two legs
(maybe use the Morning Line to select which two of the three to use.
now in the last race,
you find THREE that you did NOT pick instead of the two used for the bet.
aaah, like maybe a 12 to 1 ML (...LOL..)

OK, instead of your twenty dollars (two 10 win bets) saver in the last race,
bet only twelve more dollars on a Pick3 saver:
use only two of your three picks
find three that you do NOT like for the last leg saver
and bet twelve dollars on the 2 by 2 by 3.

oh yes, that does reduce the original ROI to 70 (or 130) for 30 bet
but when the Pick3 'saver' hits,
your collection should be much more than 130

well, this may sound like an interesting theory for some players to try.

I am not a pick3 player but your post and this theory has my attention.
so, maybe I will add a little Pick3 betting experiment to my betting plan.

duane

[AwolAtPA]

oh forgot to say.

that twenty dollar hedge in the last race was not all bet because the Pick3 saver cost only twelve dollars.

solution: bet $8 on 2 by 2 by 2 from your original ticket

so, now, with being right you collect that 70 (or 130) TWICE when the your chalk/contender win.

duane

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hedging is just making another seperate bet, with its own seperate % probability.
Just like W/WP/S is each a seperate bet, so you have to re-assess your picks for each seperate hedge/saver bet.
If you think the original bet is a +ROI bet no need to "hedge".

[boomman]

Hedging is just making another seperate bet, with its own seperate % probability.
Just like W/WP/S is each a seperate bet, so you have to re-assess your picks for each seperate hedge/saver bet.
If you think the original bet is a +ROI bet no need to "hedge".

Ken: From what I read on the message boards. apparently you and I are the 2 of the few players on earth who have hedging in our wagering "arsenal". But first of all, I'd like to respond to Jake's question about 5K maiden claimers. I also find those to be some of the most formful races there are, (since I grew up betting cheap horses, the cheaper the better) and it is usually EASY to eliminate half the field which is the first step toward having a playable race. It is rare that I pass cheap maiden races, and I look at easily over 100 races a day to make "pass" or "play" determinations. As for hedging in Jake's situation, I agree with others on this thread that his ROI was so small that it didn't justify any hedge. However, there are many times (especially when a score will be made and a large ROI will be had to multiple horses in the race that you have on the final leg ticket) when a hedge play is 100% justified, and like you said: it is a separate wager entirely. Profit is profit folks, and when you can properly "lock up" a substantial amount of profit by hedging other horses in the race (and this would be to any horse that you felt even had a slight chance of winning) it is 100% the correct play to make. I can't tell you how many times I've hedged a race where I made a substantial profit when a horse who I felt had very little chance of winning (but a slight one nonetheless) came rolling home, and instead of tearing up huge return tickets and taking a loss to the ticket, I simply was able to smile and say: so-so handicapping, nice wagering!:)

Boomer

[Broken]

I'll chime in with the "new guy opinion". I would always hedge if the opportunity presented itself. The goal, for me anyway, is to make money.

I would think hedging, in it's basic sense, is guaranteeing a profit. That would be difficult in a 10 horse race when you have only two covered to begin with and varying odds on the remaining interests.

In sports betting when you have twoor three parts of a parlay won and only have one play remaining it is easy to figure out the two possible outcomes and adjust for the juice. I'm not sure the opportunity to do this comes up often in a horse race.

[schweitz]

Ken: From what I read on the message boards. apparently you and I are the 2 of the few players on earth who have hedging in our wagering "arsenal". But first of all, I'd like to respond to Jake's question about 5K maiden claimers. I also find those to be some of the most formful races there are, (since I grew up betting cheap horses, the cheaper the better) and it is usually EASY to eliminate half the field which is the first step toward having a playable race. It is rare that I pass cheap maiden races, and I look at easily over 100 races a day to make "pass" or "play" determinations. As for hedging in Jake's situation, I agree with others on this thread that his ROI was so small that it didn't justify any hedge. However, there are many times (especially when a score will be made and a large ROI will be had to multiple horses in the race that you have on the final leg ticket) when a hedge play is 100% justified, and like you said: it is a separate wager entirely. Profit is profit folks, and when you can properly "lock up" a substantial amount of profit by hedging other horses in the race (and this would be to any horse that you felt even had a slight chance of winning) it is 100% the correct play to make. I can't tell you how many times I've hedged a race where I made a substantial profit when a horse who I felt had very little chance of winning (but a slight one nonetheless) came rolling home, and instead of tearing up huge return tickets and taking a loss to the ticket, I simply was able to smile and say: so-so handicapping, nice wagering!:)

Boomer



Make that 3 players--there are situations when hedging makes perfect sense---the above being one of them.

[Robert Fischer]

The extreme would be hedging all the way. Distribute about $40 dollars to win between the next four horses not on the ticket in such a way to ensure at least $70 return,- if your feel that those 6 horses together would make up %90 or more of the win probability. You are getting about 2.8-1@ 30% or 6.2-1 @15% (6.2-1@15%) on the original two horses if you let it be.

Then there are always the rolling doubles to jump into, single race exotics , and any combination ...

Some players probably handicapp the night before about what they will do if they are alive in the third leg.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I hit the first 2 legs of a pick three Sunday and had 2 horses in the final leg ( a MCl 5K). If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet. I hedged my bet and bet $10 on the next two lowest odds(5-1 and 8-1). Of course a 12-1 2nd time starter (who barely finished his first race) won and I dumped it all.

1st question - does anyone have any good advice on whether to hedge or not hedge on the last legs of multi races exotics

2nd question - should you ever end a multi race exotic on a MCl 5k. (That may have been the dumbest thing I did).

Big Jake
____________
What was the winner's 1st race?

[WJ47]

I only hedge if I stand to win a bundle on the final leg and there is a horse that I left out that is really driving me crazy and the price is really good on him. I find that most times when I hedge, I end up losing both bets! I guess thats because I really didn't know who to use in the race and I didn't have a large enough bankroll to cover myself properly in a possible chaotic race.

[skate]

I hit the first 2 legs of a pick three Sunday and had 2 horses in the final leg ( a MCl 5K). If either of my horses had hit it would have paid 70 or 130 on an $18 bet. I hedged my bet and bet $10 on the next two lowest odds(5-1 and 8-1). Of course a 12-1 2nd time starter (who barely finished his first race) won and I dumped it all.

1st question - does anyone have any good advice on whether to hedge or not hedge on the last legs of multi races exotics

2nd question - should you ever end a multi race exotic on a MCl 5k. (That may have been the dumbest thing I did).

Big Jake

geeees jake, i can be sympathetic and i was rooting for you. then you give me some (too) low prices.:rolleyes:

a pick 3 , why not play for some odds if you were to win.
then you can cover yourself. and never ever ever leave out the higher pays-outs, with an ATTEMPT to hedge.

Paaaleas:ThmbUp: get em next time

[badcompany]

Hedging just smacks of playing not to lose, as opposed to playing to win.

It's the betting equivalent of a Prevent Defense.

[BigJake]

B.C.

I agree with the prevent defense thought. ilmao :lol:

Even if you win its like banging your sister. You've scored, but at what cost.

I really was wondering what other players did. I obviously was leaning toward the no hedge angle, especially after being burned. If you stand to win hundreds or thousands, I could definately see the possibility