Am I missing something?

[Goldminer]

I am new to handicapping forums, and I have been away from racing for about twelve years. I noticed that some of you have posted ROI information from time to time, and I am a bit confused. Your real or expected ROI's seem to be a bit low compared to what I am used to. I left Las Vegas in 1995, and at that time I was a professional gambler, devoted to horse racing and football. I have recently handicapped 200 races from AQU, CRC, GP, HOL, and SA. I was selective in the race cards, averaging about 4 races a day, 4 days a week. ( just looking for the average ROI's ) Below are the results. What I would like to know is this, has something happened within racing, or to the track surfaces, or to trainer patterns, or field sizes that would generate these types of ROI's?
WIN BETS
63% wins @ $8.00 using 1.5 horses = 66% ROI

( 200 races from Jan. 1st to Apr. 1st. $9943- $5970)



EXACTA BETS

37% wins @ $45 using 4 horses = 67% ROI

( 200 races $2992- $1790 )



TRIFECTA BETS

44% wins @ $174 using 5 horses = 60% ROI

( 200 races $13895- $8688 )

Bill

[sjk]

You will run circles around most of the rest of us if you can make 66%.

[misscashalot]

You will run circles around most of the rest of us if you can make 66%.

with an roi like that why is he lookin the gift horse in the mouth?

[JimG]

Your real or expected ROI's seem to be a bit low compared to what I am used to.


Who are you referring to? Most people who win are not going to share such information. It is personal. Many who get on a board and brag about being a winner, really aren't.



What I would like to know is this, has something happened within racing, or to the track surfaces, or to trainer patterns, or field sizes that would generate these types of ROI's?



Since you were a former "professional" player, I am sure you are aware that 200 race samples of betting can vary widely with respect to roi., especially if you are swimming in the exotic pools.

Welcome to the board and back into the business of horse investing.

Jim

[Greyfox]

I am new to handicapping forums, and I have been away from racing for about twelve years.


Your R.O.I. beats my take for sure. Well done. Keep up the good play.

Not that it's any of my business but your post raises questions about why you quit 12 years ago and where you were in the interim? No?:lol:
Okay you were mining gold.

[SMOO]

Maybe he was in jail, that would explain everything. :bang:

[JustRalph]

I question his math.............

[Robert Fischer]

I question his math.............



WIN BETS
63% wins @ $8.00 using 1.5 horses = 66% ROI

( 200 races from Jan. 1st to Apr. 1st. $9943- $5970)





the fact is that somewhere in Goldminer's post there is an error or false statement. The best you can do on win percentage is about 55% and the majority of these horse go off at below even money. You can't average 3-1 win odds at 63% probability. It can't be done for 200 consecutive wagers.

[Greyfox]

Thanks R.F. Either he's a poor mathematician or "conned" himself or someone before.

[ranchwest]

the fact is that somewhere in Goldminer's post there is an error or false statement. The best you can do on win percentage is about 55% and the majority of these horse go off at below even money. You can't average 3-1 win odds at 63% probability. It can't be done for 200 consecutive wagers.

I once hit about 55% on about 300 races, with the average odds at about 3/2. I wouldn't say his claim is impossible, but it certainly would be extraordinary.

[Greyfox]

I once hit about 55% on about 300 races, with the average odds at about 3/2. I wouldn't say his claim is impossible, but it certainly would be extraordinary.


Agreed ranchwest.
Lost, 12 years, hey an idea for a TV show.
Miraculous R.O.I on return.
Not impossible.
Highly improbable.
Maybe someone out there in internet land can validate this phenom.
But this is bullshit poker and I call BS!

[Steve 'StatMan']

Same 200 races for all those totals? If they worked well for one group, like for win, then adding the next spots with mulitiple horses for exactas and trifectas would have a good chance of working - for that same group.

Exactas and Trifecta, how many combos were you using - and were they the same, or different depending on the race?

You might want to try another group of 200.

OTOH you mentioned you were selective of the races, so you know what is of interest to you. If you'd tried the same methods on the races you chose to skip, your results obviously would have been much different. But you're not expecting those other races to work - or you wouldn't have passed them in the first place.

But, knowing what to look for, and from there, what to bet and what to pass, is a vital skill indeed.

You need not answer these questions for me - I'm just throwing out some ideas to help evaluate. Obviously much success in this group. The tougher question, as always is, is it repeatable, and how often.

Is it real, or is it that enticing siren tempting you with a nice 'Welcome Back,Please Stay' greeting, only to perhaps treat you differently after the real dollars go through the window?

Good Luck in any and all cases.

[AwolAtPA]

that sounds like an encouraging result for your return to horse betting.
and I say, accept the results of your good handicapping
and, hope the prices stay up as you increase your bet unit.

However, my data base has CRC for only 1-2 Jan 2007 and only SAX for Jan-Apr 2007, ie, none for HOL


what is the date range for your sample?

duane

[pic6vic]

I think that Goldminer is alluriing to something else. like he wants to start a tout sheet and for us to believe his numbers. I find a few discrepancies in his statement.

1) He recently capped 200 races from AQU HOL CRC GP. Calder and Hollywood were not running with Gulfstream.
2) He left for 12 years and he still could handicap that many winners. Why if you are that good would you leave. NO WAY.

That is enough of negativity. Goldminer is pulling our leg. No way is he telling the true story

[ranchwest]

I think that Goldminer is alluriing to something else. like he wants to start a tout sheet and for us to believe his numbers. I find a few discrepancies in his statement.

1) He recently capped 200 races from AQU HOL CRC GP. Calder and Hollywood were not running with Gulfstream.
2) He left for 12 years and he still could handicap that many winners. Why if you are that good would you leave. NO WAY.

That is enough of negativity. Goldminer is pulling our leg. No way is he telling the true story

I think horse racing has changed quite a bit in 12 years. I think it would be tough to come back off the layoff and win. Of course, maybe he needed the freshening. :)

[Valuist]

Your R.O.I. beats my take for sure. Well done. Keep up the good play.

Not that it's any of my business but your post raises questions about why you quit 12 years ago and where you were in the interim? No?:lol:
Okay you were mining gold.

I was thinking the same thing. Either that or on a yacht in the Caribbean. I suppose he was hitting 70% of his football wagers also :rolleyes:

[thelyingthief]

yes, you are.

guys who post the most here win the least: else, if they spent the time they waste in blogging actually handicapping and research, they would lack the time to post. you're missing that.

a couple of the big contributors would happily slide their noses up your butt and swear the air is sweet, if you just will add a link, and sell maybe a tout sheet. youre missing that.

and lastly, youre missing any reference to the law of small numbers in your workout. this is maybe your biggest factum in absentia.

[Tom]

tlt....you missed the bus.
Or you got one stuck up YOUR arse.
Maybe you should kow what you are talking aobut befreo you post....or would that mean you could never post~JERK

[thelyingthief]

whatEVER do you mean?!!

[Hosshead]

FoolsGoldMiner posted this thread in the wrong area.
Should have been under the "Jerk My Chain" Section.