When to stop betting for the day

[dav4463]

Many advocate setting a profit goal for the day and leaving once that goal is reached even if it means betting one race and going home.

What is the rationale behind this? I don't really understand. How can you be sure that you won't hit another race for big money later in the day?

I guess if you normally hit one of nine races on average and you hit one early, then the rationale is you leave with a higher win percent for the day. I'm not sure. Wouldn't the win percentage still even out if you hit early two days in a row followed by a couple of 0 for 9 days? I would think if you stay and play all nine races in your session, you might go 4 for 9 or better on occasion. I'm using nine because I usually play nine races on an average trip to the track spread out between two or three race cards.

[singunner]

People are scared of averaging out to their stastically derived ROI (which is probably negative).

[betovernetcapper]

I have a very firm policy about this. I always stop betting after the last race takes place in Australia, unless of course it's one of those nights when they are offering Hong Kong. :)

[46zilzal]

Many advocate setting a profit goal for the day and leaving once that goal is reached even if it means betting one race and going home.



There are days when you have to go for it and then those days when you relaize things are not in your ball park. One continues in this game by knowing the differences.

[singunner]

I believe, technically, those Australia races are the first races you bet on, even if you go to sleep for the night before playing the rest of the day's races.

[ranchwest]

The assertions made on this board in the past were often that one should not tempt the "racing gods" after having matched your goal.

Personally, I think that if I'm doing well then I'm probably at the top of my game mentally (okay, that's not much, but, hey, I take what I've got) and the races are probably running true to my style of handicapping. On both counts it is time to stay. However, the caveat is that I have to be careful not to get over-confident. I already struggle against action betting, so unfortunately success can exacerbate that problem.

[Lefty]

Stop betting for the day when you run out of qualified plays at the odds you desire. For me this can be as low as 1 and as many as 8. There are some days i'm at the racebook all day with no plays at all.

[Robert Fischer]

Depends if it is a long-term or short-term strategy.

If it is short-term, if you win anything decent - put aside your initial investment. Probably a good idea to put aside some of the winnings as well, and play with "their money".

If it is a long term strategy, you aren't going to cash out on site. It comes down to how much quality time you can devote, and how many races fit your value criteria.

I have had examples of both. winning and losing.
On BC day 2006, I went out to the OTB, hit the bc juvenile fillies trifecta, on my first play, cashed out on site, and took the family out for a nice seafood lunch. Didn't even bother me that the turf mile and classic trifectas came in:rolleyes: while i veiwed them on the restaurant tv.
Then I had play on my birthday where I recklessly parlayed two horses to win. The first one won:ThmbUp: :jump: and the second one never fired:ThmbDown: :mad: . I knew I was taking a gamble from the start, and was prepared to lose if I did.

In long term plays I have had several days where I won about $7.00 for the whole day! That was after all of my plays for that day. You look at that see a net gain of a few dollars after information costs... Hard to accept that as part of an economic goal, but not chasing losses or small wins is all part of a long term strategy.

[cj]

The time to stop is when all the races you handicapped and had the possibility of betting with an edge have ended.

[badcompany]

I have a very firm policy about this. I always stop betting after the last race takes place in Australia, unless of course it's one of those nights when they are offering Hong Kong. :)

I employ a modified version of this policy: I stop betting when I run out of money and have no one to borrow from.

[GhostofTM]

Dave4463
What is the rationale behind this? I don't really understand. How can you be sure that you won't hit another race for big money later in the day?

The rationale for this is simply "setting goals". Whenever you're involved in a means of trying to make money, the idea is to set a goal and attempt to reach that goal using whatever techniques you feel are most suitable. When you've reached that goal, move on. There's no need to force the issue after your goals have been met. There's also nothing wrong with just playing for fun after the serious money has been made.

The most important thing is to quit for the day whether the goals have been met or not. There's always tomorrow and another race to be won.

[DanG]

The rationale for this is simply "setting goals". Whenever you're involved in a means of trying to make money, the idea is to set a goal and attempt to reach that goal using whatever techniques you feel are most suitable. When you've reached that goal, move on. There's no need to force the issue after your goals have been met. There's also nothing wrong with just playing for fun after the serious money has been made.

The most important thing is to quit for the day whether the goals have been met or not. There's always tomorrow and another race to be won.
Not singling anyone out as this is a widely held belief.

However, by this rational…

We had daily, weekly and annual goals in my family’s restaurants. On peak days we would have shut the doors 3 hours prior to closing because we met a preconceived “goal”.

It's pure semantics as tomorrow’s first race has no bearing on today’s ninth race. This game is one continuous lifelong session and profit can be taken at any point. Bet size can and should be adjusted to reflect profit and loss, but leaving due to a short term goal is leaving money on the table assuming you truly have an edge.

BTW: Of the many classic track’isms that players utter my favorite is “I’m playing with their money”. There has never been a more false statement…It is “your” cash the second the teller scans your ticket and / or your accountant is credited…period!

[alysheba88]

The horses dont know if you have won or lost.

[SMOO]

It's pure semantics as tomorrow’s first race has no bearing on today’s ninth race. This game is one continuous lifelong session and profit can be taken at any point. Bet size can and should be adjusted to reflect profit and loss, but leaving due to a short term goal is leaving money on the table assuming you truly have an edge.

BTW: Of the many classic track’isms that players utter my favorite is “I’m playing with their money”. There has never been a more false statement…It is “your” cash the second the teller scans your ticket and / or your accountant is credited…period!
Both excellent points, and very true. :ThmbUp:

[jma]

I think the idea of setting a goal and quitting when you reach it worked best in the days of betting live on just one track. It does help you to resist doing anything crazy or stupid because you're "betting with their money" (which, as was mentioned, is now your money). It can be hard to resist the urge to make a few crazy bets when we are doing well. However...if you're looking long-term and have sound reasons for the bets you are making, there's no reason to stop betting just because you're a certain amount ahead. Your advantage should be the same whether you've bet 1 or 100 horses that day/month/year. The only reason I can think of to quit is if being way ahead (or behind) affects you to the point you get reckless, but you have to overcome that if you're going to be successful in the long term.

[badcompany]

Both excellent points, and very true. :ThmbUp:

Actually, the first point doesn't hold water because, in the final three hours of operations for the day, the family restuarant, UNLIKE THE HORSEPLAYER, can't give back the profits that it made earlier in the day

Whether to walk away or not when up a certain amount is a matter of opinion.

Much like the stockmarket, there are very few absolutes in horseracing, not betting beyond what your bankroll allows being one of them.

[Greyfox]

Lightning can strike fast at the race track.
I've seen bettors ready to leave make one more play and Kazaam
hit a bit score in the thousands. I've also seen bettors make one
more play and lose. You do not know when lightning will strike and
toss you a big payout, if you toss a couple of high odds runners
in on your exotics.

[PaceAdvantage]

Proper bankroll management allows you to take advantage of EVERY SINGLE opportunity that comes your way where you PERCEIVE there to be an EDGE.

To shun such opportunities because of some "daily goal" notion is simply leaving money on the table. If you're THAT GOOD where you can simply walk away from money because you've hit a goal, more power to you....

Most rational players would look at stopping after reaching some predetermined daily monetary goal in the same way one would look at a shopping spree winner walking away despite meaningful time left on the clock.

[SMOO]

Proper bankroll management allows you to take advantage of EVERY SINGLE opportunity that comes your way where you PERCEIVE there to be an EDGE.

To shun such opportunities because of some "daily goal" notion is simply leaving money on the table. If you're THAT GOOD where you can simply walk away from money because you've hit a goal, more power to you....

Most rational players would look at stopping after reaching some predetermined daily monetary goal in the same way one would look at a shopping spree winner walking away despite meaningful time left on the clock.
Yes, this whole "day profit" thing is bent. I rate my profits on a monthly basis, because that's when I subtract the cost of my pp's that get charged to my credit card.

[Valuist]

I believe you never stop when you are having a good day. I think you are better off having a loss limit, where if you hit it, you either stop or scale back significantly. Why stop when you're doing well?

[Tom]

But it all comes down to what you feel comfortable doing. It' a big table - you can leave some scraps;)

I can print out a list of plays at every track running, but do I wnat to bet into every single pool, every single track, all day and night?

I'm in it for the long haul - I am not the least bit worried about missing races along the way.

Evenif I have 6 plays between two tracks, and hit a couple of good one early, I see no problem with stopping. My long term expectation should be the same when I start the next day.

Do you play every day - never taking one off?
What's the diff? :confused:

[1st time lasix]

As an east coast guy before the new polytrack....I always stopped playing late in the day at my simulcast facility when the feature track is in California. Never particularly enjoyed handicapping only for early speed on the "cement like" tracks they used to run on. {or figuring out which trainer was milkshaking} Now I may actually hang around a bit longer. I ALWAYS stop handicapping and wagering if I order a second cocktail!

[oddswizard]

The rational for quitting when you have reached a daily profit goal is simple. In the long run you will make a lot more money. Think like an investor and take down your profits. Think like a gambler and keep playing and the chances are you will have lots of action and very little cash.
If you make a lot of money by playing all the races I congratulate you. If not, perhaps you might reconsider your strategy. I changed my strategy simply because I hate to lose!

[PaceAdvantage]

If you make a lot of money by playing all the races I congratulate you.

You're not making a very important distinction. Nobody who is against your "goal" theory is advocating playing ALL THE RACES.

But your rule says to STOP when you reach a certain profit goal, no matter what.

To stop at a point in the day when there are still races which YOU BELIEVE provide you with an EDGE is downright FOOLISH and not very healthy to your bankroll in the long run. You're leaving money on the table. Why would you do that?

The only reason to STOP when you reach a predetermined monetary goal is IF there are NO MORE races left in the day within which you think you have an EDGE.....OR.....you have no idea what your edge is and you're afraid of losing your profits. If the latter, then you are destined to go broke in the long run anyway, so it doesn't really matter what you do....