View Full Version : Lava Man
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 01:47 PM
Did this guy actually run today in Dubai? Which race and where did he finish? thanks
Stevie Belmont
03-31-2007, 01:50 PM
Was up on the early pace in the Duty Free, even lead for a brief peroid of time before packing it in and getting ready to go back to Cali. With that said he was dead last of 16...Too bad, at least a decent finish was a hope for him.
Another example of why this game can be beaten. His odds, and those of English Channel, were absurd. On my site I said I gave Lava Man about .01% chance of winning today, and obviously I overestimated that.
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 01:59 PM
Was up on the early pace in the Duty Free, even lead for a brief peroid of time before packing it in and getting ready to go back to Cali. With that said he was dead last of 16...Too bad, at least a decent finish was a hope for him.
Gerographically limited animal
Did this guy actually run today in Dubai? Which race and where did he finish? thanks
Race 6, on turf - he counted butts down the stretch.
Stevie Belmont
03-31-2007, 02:02 PM
The odds on English Channel and Lava Man were flat out ridiculous.....
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 02:02 PM
Race 6, on turf - he counted butts down the stretch.
The surface switch would have been enough to know that this one's racing style would not transfer at all.
Gerographically limited animal
I think he is more medication limited than location. His Classic at Churchill, though not looking very good on paper, was probably just as good as most of his wins.
The surface switch would have been enough to know that this one's racing style would not transfer at all.
So his last three races on turf which he won, including a G1, don't count?
boomman
03-31-2007, 02:20 PM
Another example of why this game can be beaten. His odds, and those of English Channel, were absurd. On my site I said I gave Lava Man about .01% chance of winning today, and obviously I overestimated that.
I said on another board that I thought Lava Man should have been at least 30x1 in that field! When he opened on YB @8/5 I almost fell on the floor! Unfathomable to me as to why the connections aren't just happy to take the easy dough in California instead of all this ridiculousness. The 2 Japanese horses that ran 1st and 3rd had accumulated over 10 million in earnings while facing the toughest competition on turf in the world. A ridiculous spot for Lava Man only outdone by the "off" price of 7/2. Quite likely one of the top 3 underlays in the history of horse racing. I certainly hope Lava Man wasn't injured as he sure didn't look good in the lane.........
Boomer
the_fat_man
03-31-2007, 02:32 PM
Another example of why this game can be beaten. His odds, and those of English Channel, were absurd. On my site I said I gave Lava Man about .01% chance of winning today, and obviously I overestimated that.
Says something about the connections as well, I think.
You have an older horse that you picked up for practically nothing (relatively) and you've made a fortune running him within his comfort zone.
But that's not enough, you need to ship him to Kentucky cause you need the money? have something to prove? etc.
And when he doesn't quite get it done there, you decide to haul his old ass over to Dubai cause you need the money?
This is just flat out abuse by people that don't realize how incredibly fortunate they've been.
Now, make sure he puts in a full season ---travel and all.
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 02:33 PM
So his last three races on turf which he won, including a G1, don't count?
When did Lava Man run on the grass?
PaceAdvantage
03-31-2007, 02:35 PM
When did Lava Man run on the grass?
Holy Cow man....are you serious?
Jan 27, 07
Jun 10, 06
Apr 30, 06
were his most recent....plus he ran NINE other times on turf, compiling a record of SIX wins in TWELVE starts on the weeds....
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 02:37 PM
Holy Cow man....are you serious?
I don't follow West coast horses at all. Ever
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 02:40 PM
Holy Cow man....are you serious?
Jan 27, 07
Jun 10, 06
Apr 30, 06
were his most recent....plus he ran NINE other times on turf, compiling a record of SIX wins in TWELVE starts on the weeds....
Thanks now I am informed.
PaceAdvantage
03-31-2007, 02:40 PM
I don't follow West coast horses at all. Ever
How about when they are Horse of the Year material and one of the choices in the Breeders' Cup Classic? Do you follow them then?
john del riccio
03-31-2007, 02:40 PM
Lava Man can't stand up outside CA...so lets ship to the other side of the world.....your right CJ, you overestimated his chances....
John
46zilzal
03-31-2007, 02:42 PM
How about when they are Horse of the Year material and one of the choices in the Breeders' Cup Classic? Do you follow them then?
I have made, by actual count, 8 wagers in the history of those races even going to many of them. I look for bets elsewhere and usually just watch them.
I never waste the time with all these databases.
Valuist
03-31-2007, 03:03 PM
You can add the 6-1 or so that Day Pass went off at as another big underlay. The odds on Lava Man were laughable. IMO, this horse absolutely, positively cannot run w/out race day Bute.
JustRalph
03-31-2007, 05:31 PM
Lava Man stopped like never before ............man he looked bad. I didn't think he had a shot against the Japanese types..........but I didnt' think he would run that bad..........He couldn't have looked any worse if he was pulled up or eased
ponyplayerdotca
03-31-2007, 08:57 PM
No lasix, no bute, and a trip halfway across the world to tackle better grass horses at his advanced age - is it any wonder the old guy ran poorly?
Taking meds away from a senior is usually a bad idea, no?
I was also completely baffled by the low odds in the M/L and by post time.
rgustafson
03-31-2007, 10:05 PM
Let's not just dump on Lava Man. U.S. based turf horses when racing abroad are always underlays on the tote in this country and for the most part should be automatic throw outs. In that race, English Channel, Miesque's Approval(one of the worst winners in Breeders Cup history in my opinion) and Lava Man finished 12th, 15th and 16th respectively. In the other turf race that was run on the card, Honey Rider, Host and Obrigado ran 11th, 12th, and 13th.
Lava Man stopped like never before ............man he looked bad. I didn't think he had a shot against the Japanese types..........but I didnt' think he would run that bad..........He couldn't have looked any worse if he was pulled up or eased...or ran in the Gold Cup again! :lol:
OTM Al
04-02-2007, 02:12 PM
Was in transit to Philly Park for the first half of that card but caught the last 3 races. Couldn't believe people were hammering Lava Man. Its not that he can't run outside CA, its that he can't run without bute. My great luck though was getting my exactas split in the Sheema and Duty Free and having my 2 3rd place horses finish 4th and 5th in the WC. Pick 3 winners in a row ON TOP singled and lose every time. Yeah, I forgot about there being P3s on those races.....I so thought I was cashing big with everyone hammering the US horses in those races. So wanted to bet someone straight up Discreet Cat wasn't in the money, so thought I'd done the next best thing....not. This is why I am OTM Al. I love this game.
vBulletin® v3.8.9, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.