long term capital plays 03-30-2007

[formula_2002]

Must be <5/2

ded 1st #4 once
ded 10th #8 7 times
sa 7th # 5 4 times
Sun 12th #4 one time.

got to look at the 3 remaining horses who's odds are the shortest in the win pool ,under and over the pick for an exacta.

[formula_2002]

7th at SA ran out, BUT

Delta - Race 1
# Win Place Show
4 $6.40 $3.80 $2.80
:jump:
the 4/9 exacta paid $44.40.exacta analysis later

[formula_2002]

Delta - Race 10 [ Chart ]
# Win Place Show
8 $4.20 $2.80 $2.60 :jump: :jump: :jump:

[formula_2002]

finals: 3 horse qualified for the <5/2
12 plays returned;
win pool $35.80, 1.49 roi :jump:
place pool $23.40, .975 roi
show pool $21.00, roi .875

the ded 1st race exacta returned $44.40.
odds on the odds on the winning pick was 2.2-1, the place horse was 5.10.
the win pool take-out is 17%.
Given that the pick at least breaks even in the long term (it seems to do much better) , the fair exacata payout calculates to;
.3125 x (.164/(1.20-.3125)) = $34.60..
The $44.40 payoff represents a 30% advantage over the fair payoff