LINK to the Woodside Associates Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

I would like to again invite the racing fans here at PACE ADVANTAGE to take a look at our Race Of The Week analysis. It is FREE. The Henry Kuck Ratings are included in our analysis in an effort to educate players on both the accuracy of the ratings and their application as it pertains to handicapping top quality races. Different types of races require a different handicapping approach and since the ROTW is always a stake race, a consistent means to handicapping these races will be shown. Good Luck, ask questions, and with a little luck, cash some tickets. The ROTW is the Florida Derby.


Click on the link below and a pdf file should open, if not you may need to upgrade your version of abobe acrobat. GOOD LUCK !

John Del Riccio
www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[classhandicapper]

Good job. ;)

[john del riccio]

Good job. ;)


Class,

Hopefully you'll feel the same way tomorrow.....

John

[classhandicapper]

Class,

Hopefully you'll feel the same way tomorrow.....

John

I was very interested in Stormello and Adore the Gold before I read your analysis. If the prices remain reasonably attractive and the track is playing honest/speed favoring, I'll probably play one or both. If we go down the tubes, we'll go together. I'm still looking at the other horses to see if there's anyone else I might want to take a flier on in the exotics. I'm looking for someone that could move forward unexpectedly.

[Robert Fischer]

I always enjoy reading your ROTW. :ThmbUp:
This looks like a good race.

[bobphilo]

I would like to again invite the racing fans here at PACE ADVANTAGE to take a look at our Race Of The Week analysis. It is FREE. The Henry Kuck Ratings are included in our analysis in an effort to educate players on both the accuracy of the ratings and their application as it pertains to handicapping top quality races. Different types of races require a different handicapping approach and since the ROTW is always a stake race, a consistent means to handicapping these races will be shown. Good Luck, ask questions, and with a little luck, cash some tickets. The ROTW is the Florida Derby.


Click on the link below and a pdf file should open, if not you may need to upgrade your version of abobe acrobat. GOOD LUCK !

John Del Riccio
www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

Stormello's rider switch from overeager Desorneaux meams he'll have a lot more left in the tank if Scat Daddy takes him on late again, and will help Adore the Gold too since the pace will be less insane. Funny how a rider change can change the whole pace scenario to the benefit if Stormello and Adore the Gold.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I was very interested in Stormello and Adore the Gold before I read your analysis. If the prices remain reasonably attractive and the track is playing honest/speed favoring, I'll probably play one or both. If we go down the tubes, we'll go together. I'm still looking at the other horses to see if there's anyone else I might want to take a flier on in the exotics. I'm looking for someone that could move forward unexpectedly.

I think Matz's horse is hard to gauge, he lost so much ground and still won, I think we are all secretly rooting for that guy anyway so we'll see if Dominguez
can work him magic. GOOD LUCK.

John

[john del riccio]

I always enjoy reading your ROTW. :ThmbUp:
This looks like a good race.

Robert,

I like writing it, if nothing else, it provides fodder for opnions to be thrown out there where we can all make note of things we may not have noticed.


John

[john del riccio]

Stormello's rider switch from overeager Desorneaux meams he'll have a lot more left in the tank if Scat Daddy takes him on late again, and will help Adore the Gold too since the pace will be less insane. Funny how a rider change can change the whole pace scenario to the benefit if Stormello and Adore the Gold.

Bob

Kent has fallen out of favor with me for a while, he just doesn't seem to be a heady rider and in a game where split second decisions make the difference, its not a good place to be.

JOhn

[the_fat_man]

Kent did absolutely nothing wrong with Stormello in the FOY and still lost. Out of the top 4 in that race, he had the best 'trip'.

And what about his ride on Pleasant Tap? When's the last time you've seen him turn for home sitting chilly? Wow :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Kent did absolutely nothing wrong with Stormello in the FOY and still lost. Out of the top 4 in that race, he had the best 'trip'.

And what about his ride on Pleasant Tap? When's the last time you've seen him turn for home sitting chilly? Wow :ThmbUp:

Cleanest trip, maybe, but running pressured through very fast fractions isn't my idea of a great trip. Scat Daddy had the best 'trip' in my opinion.

[the_fat_man]

Cleanest trip, maybe, but running pressured through very fast fractions isn't my idea of a great trip. Scat Daddy had the best 'trip' in my opinion.

You know my comments on the FOY.

As an exercise, sometime, get on your TRACK bike, and try to 'chase' a very fast pace (go faster than you're accustomed to and do it WIDE so you're NOT drafting) and then best the pacesetter(s) to the wire. Now, that's easy to do.

SD must've gotten the best 'trip' today as well.


Tell you this much, Chelokee has that, SUCKUP INSIDE run when they're done, trip down, doesn't he?

[cj]

You know my comments on the FOY.

As an exercise, sometime, get on your TRACK bike, and try to 'chase' a very fast pace (go faster than you're accustomed to and do it WIDE so you're NOT drafting) and then best the pacesetter(s) to the wire. Now, that's easy to do.

SD must've gotten the best 'trip' today as well.

So you are saying you'd rather be on a very fast pace dueling then wide and behind, waiting to pounce? Please, I've seen far too many horse races to believe that one. Horses aren't bikes, and while I think pace and ground loss are factors to consider, the former is much more important.

The key is knowing when the pace is fast. I never really judge that when watching as it can be deceiving, but I'd guess today was also VERY hot again. There was really no reason to think it would be anything but fast. Scat Daddy will be a big underlay in the Derby, and the others just aren't very good either.

[the_fat_man]

So you are saying you'd rather be on a very fast pace dueling then wide and behind, waiting to pounce? Please, I've seen far too many horse races to believe that one. Horses aren't bikes, and while I think pace and ground loss are factors to consider, the former is much more important.

The key is knowing when the pace is fast. I never really judge that when watching as it can be deceiving, but I'd guess today was also VERY hot again. There was really no reason to think it would be anything but fast. Scat Daddy will be a big underlay in the Derby, and the others just aren't very good either.

That's what makes trips subjective. And, as has been pointed out, my tripping is puerile.

CJ, nobody came back in the FOY. If the pace was really that hot why did the top 2 hold 1-2 till just before the wire? Nothing, other that SD, closed the last 8th.

I guess the way the race fell apart, the pace must've been fast today. But, Chelokee didn't run at all until the last 8th and Notional just picked up the pieces. These are poor quality horses, I agree. SD is as game as they come but he's no match for a good horse. Although,he probably appreciated the HOLIDAY from Johnny V's whip.

[Robert Fischer]

looked like the pace itself was just a little softer today(haven't gone to the charts yet thought i saw 110.??), and with no threat of good looking Nobiz breathing down his neck as well.

I think at some point you have to consider pedigree. This whole field was made up of shorter pedigrees which made it all the more difficult , especially with some of these already having a strong 9f performance. Stormello has a ton of heart , but he out ran his pedigree last time.

Notional wasn't flattered at all by Imawildandcrazyguy in the La Derby. Notional showed once again that he is a pretty good racehorse and their are some mid-level purse opportunities for him out west. Chelokee seemed to finish pretty well here, he got a weird trip last race but at least he ran well again(3rd straight good race?).

[Robert Fischer]

... These are poor quality horses, I agree. SD is as game as they come but he's no match for a good horse.

I have to agree with that. I think Pletcher has this one very fit, I don't see him turning it up a notch from here or winning against a better group.

[JPinMaryland]

I thought the pace was very fast today, going 23.05 to the quarter and almost the same for the second quarter. Going from memory....

One thing CJ said above that I thought about alot was that "there's no reason to think these horses would go out slower than last time." Both AdoretheGold and Stormello worked fast and what else is there to go on? I guess it was Valasquez on AtG that tried to rate today. I would up tossing both of these horses from the exotics based on looking at the come home times from last race, I est. they both got the last 1/8 in 13.75 and 13.8 seems like they are hittng the wall when you come home like that. No biz was 13.15 (est.)

WHen you come home in 27+ that's a horse that's tiring.

On Chelokee, didnt he have some trouble along the rail today? I saw a replay but not sure what I was seeing, was he brushed? I was going to toss him from my tix, but I saw he beat that Reppo horse in the ALW race, who did pretty well at the Lanes End so maybe he's pretty good.

Can horses really draft? I find that hard to believe. Look how close they run in Formula I or bicycling. I would think horses would have to be so close together to draft it woudl not be worth the risk of clipping heels. I think horses do respond to wind conditions being a creature with such a large profile, you can see them twist in home stretch when its windy but I cant see they draft.

Bob said: "Funny how a rider change can change the whole pace scenario to the benefit if Stormello and Adore the Gold"

I didnt really see this happen, although I gues AtG tried to rate some. How did you see the race Bob?

[john del riccio]

I thought that STORMELLO would let ADORE THE GOLD go and sit off him, guning him to the lead was sort of disturbing because after 1/4 mile, I knew he'd need to be a freakish sort to win that race. I think Matz's horse was stopped a bit wasn't he ? He is going to run a big one soon.

John

[betovernetcapper]

Chelokee was checked pretty hard at the top of the stretch costing him a length or two but he did save ground throughout most of the race. He finished about 2 lengths behind Scat Daddy which is probably where he should have run.

[bobphilo]

I thought the pace was very fast today, going 23.05 to the quarter and almost the same for the second quarter. Going from memory....

One thing CJ said above that I thought about alot was that "there's no reason to think these horses would go out slower than last time." Both AdoretheGold and Stormello worked fast and what else is there to go on? I guess it was Valasquez on AtG that tried to rate today. I would up tossing both of these horses from the exotics based on looking at the come home times from last race, I est. they both got the last 1/8 in 13.75 and 13.8 seems like they are hittng the wall when you come home like that. No biz was 13.15 (est.)

WHen you come home in 27+ that's a horse that's tiring.

On Chelokee, didnt he have some trouble along the rail today? I saw a replay but not sure what I was seeing, was he brushed? I was going to toss him from my tix, but I saw he beat that Reppo horse in the ALW race, who did pretty well at the Lanes End so maybe he's pretty good.

Can horses really draft? I find that hard to believe. Look how close they run in Formula I or bicycling. I would think horses would have to be so close together to draft it woudl not be worth the risk of clipping heels. I think horses do respond to wind conditions being a creature with such a large profile, you can see them twist in home stretch when its windy but I cant see they draft.

Bob said: "Funny how a rider change can change the whole pace scenario to the benefit of Stormello and Adore the Gold"

I didnt really see this happen, although I gues AtG tried to rate some. How did you see the race Bob?

I was really disappointed with Espinosa's ride and in some ways it was worse than Desormaux’s had been. With Adore the Gold taking back and giving Stormello an uncontested lead, he still went out faster than he had to, though slower than in the FOY. However, he did tire more than in the FOY despite the slightly slower pace so I think there was there was some bounce factor involved. ATG really backed up at the end so he was likely reacting to his FOY effort. It’s also possible that they were running into a headwind on the backstretch so the pace was really more tiring than the fractions indicated.

Scat Daddy went wide again, which I expected since he seems to be more comfortable running on the outside, so that was probably his jock’s instructions. He was still good enough to win.

I wouldn’t hold a horse’s slow late fractions against him if they were the result of setting a fast pace. I can’t expect a horse to violate the laws of physiology. This is especially true if they figure to get a more favorable pace scenario next time, as I expected Stormello and ATG to get today. Of course, if they go out fast again, you can expect them to tire again. Late fractions must be evaluated both in terms of the pace circumstances in which they were earned and the pace scenario expected next time.

The possible benefits from drafting is an area of what could be an important contributor to a horse's perfromance. Cyclists definetly benefit from it. I think something as large as a thoroughbred moving at racing speed could very well produce an air wake large enough that another horse would not have to be dangeously close to benefit from. IMO, It's definitely worth studying if someone were able to do it. I seem to recall that drafting can increase performance by something like 10% or more. I'm sure it's effect on horses could be measured in studies similar to those used for cyclists.

Bob

[the_fat_man]

Ummmmmmmm

Jockeys are well aware of the benefits of drafting. Check out just about any turf race.

And, Chelokee's jock, in particular, knows about it as this plug has gotten 2 inside suckup trips in a row. He'll run a big one IF he gets an equally BIG setup.

See, I ride a bike so I couldn't really anything about drafting as it applies to horse racing.

But I do know this much:

1) drafting is an incredible advantage --- on a downhill for example I could be spinning at 28 MPH and travelling at 35 MPH, if drafting

2) you needn't be directly behind a horse/bike to get benefits; you can be along side but not directly parallel --say 1/2 length behind. So a horse following another horse around the turn on its outside but not directly alongside is getting an advantage.

3) the best effect is when you're BEHIND AND BETWEEN riders/horses --this is a TURF specialty

[cj]

Ummmmmmmm

Jockeys are well aware of the benefits of drafting. Check out just about any turf race.

And, Chelokee's jock, in particular, knows about it as this plug has gotten 2 inside suckup trips in a row. He'll run a big one IF he gets an equally BIG setup.

See, I ride a bike so I couldn't really anything about drafting as it applies to horse racing.

But I do know this much:

1) drafting is an incredible advantage --- on a downhill for example I could be spinning at 28 MPH and travelling at 35 MPH, if drafting

2) you needn't be directly behind a horse/bike to get benefits; you can be along side but not directly parallel --say 1/2 length behind. So a horse following another horse around the turn on its outside but not directly alongside is getting an advantage.

3) the best effect is when you're BEHIND AND BETWEEN riders/horses --this is a TURF specialty

Why doesn't it work on dirt?

[the_fat_man]

Why doesn't it work on dirt?

Doesn't SEEMINGLY work as well on dirt cause of all the DIRT flying around. But it does work on dirt and it's a thing of beauty to watch. Chelokee today, got a nice draft trip. And he did it real well. He's inside, behind the speed, and he lets all the others run on the outside on the turn and just gets carried along until he enters the stretch where he's finally asked to run. And he still can't get up. :D

For a perfect example of why jocks prefer the outside to being inside and (thus) behind horses, check out the headon of today's 2nd at Gulfstream. Prado, on CJ West tears ass off the rail to the outside as soon as he can.
Man, the shit is flying in this race. While you're there, check out the Trippi horse. How much does he win by if he changes and actually runs straight?

[JPinMaryland]

they gave out a percentage during last years Tour de France for the benefit of drafting. It could well have been 10% as Bob said, but they also said you have to be close. This something prolly easy to look up.

WOuld also think you have to stick with it for some time, running a few strides on the turn in that position could hardly matter. Unless you are going for some Nascar-like sling shot effect. You telling me they do that too?

[john del riccio]

Hindsight is 20-20....but I'll ask anyhow...


For a brief time I asked myself if those 57 & 58 and change works fore ATG and ST were too quick for training up toa 1 1/8 race but ultimately decided that
they were just traiing to their talent. Withthat said, Espinosa was hell bent on getting to the front and I am curious if that was his instructions from Currin.

John

[Robert Fischer]

- on Stormello - I wouldn't expect them to change this horse's style at this point. He has peaked as a young racehorse and that is his style. I always advocate being patient with a talented horse and teaching him to rate. Not all horses can LEARN to rate, and some horses are so talented they don't need to rate to win a lot of 3yo races (Brother Derek comes to mind from last years crop). The trainers don't always take the patient route when graded stakes are within arms reach.
With Stormello you have a horse that breaks alertly, has natural speed and a ton of heart. The problem is his pedigree suggests that going beyond 8.5f could be a challenge and his running style is also one of the hardest to maintain for 9+ furlongs.


drafting - sure it matters to some degree. Could it be about a length difference? Maybe. More? I don't know.. They probably have to be right on someones heels to get the full effect , but any reduction of wind force would make life a little easier. Not only that if sitting behind horses prevents your horse from gunning to the front, and saves you some ground, there is more energy to use for the stretch run. A horse on the lead also saves ground and runs in a straight(er) path, so this is a multi-tiered physics problem.
Not sure if anyone has written a physics book for horseracing using "models" and basic principles to tackle questions like this.

[classhandicapper]

Hindsight is 20-20....but I'll ask anyhow...


For a brief time I asked myself if those 57 & 58 and change works fore ATG and ST were too quick for training up toa 1 1/8 race but ultimately decided that
they were just traiing to their talent. Withthat said, Espinosa was hell bent on getting to the front and I am curious if that was his instructions from Currin.

John

In hindsight, I am looking at the charts of the FOY card and wondering whether the inside was better that day than I originally thought. If so, Scat Daddy actually ran much better than I thought that day (running so wide) and Stormello and ATG didn't run as well despite the pace being lively that day.

I had more or less made all three even coming out of the race, with Storm and STG having been used on the pace and SD having lost so much ground, but I believe I may have overweighted the pace and underrated the ground loss.

Yesterday's pace was also lively, but visually I think it was no more lively than last time and perhaps less so. The difference may have been that the FOY track carried the inside speed better.

[classhandicapper]

That's what makes trips subjective. And, as has been pointed out, my tripping is puerile.

CJ, nobody came back in the FOY. If the pace was really that hot why did the top 2 hold 1-2 till just before the wire? Nothing, other that SD, closed the last 8th.

I guess the way the race fell apart, the pace must've been fast today. But, Chelokee didn't run at all until the last 8th and Notional just picked up the pieces. These are poor quality horses, I agree. SD is as game as they come but he's no match for a good horse. Although,he probably appreciated the HOLIDAY from Johnny V's whip.

Fat man,

I always enjoy your analysis on these things because you view things from multiple directions like I do.

Numerically, the FOY pace was definitely fast. I think you are going to be hard pressed to find someone that disagrees with that. But your point that no one came back that day is also valid. This is one of those things numeric and non-numeric handicappers will often not see eye to eye on.

Sometimes the numbers are wrong.

Sometimes there are offsetting factors to the pace.

Sometimes no one comes back because they were all so good.

In hindsight (because I was obviously wrong in my original evaluation of the FOY) I believe the track played a part in the result of the FOY. I still think the pace was fast in that race, but I believe the track carried the speed better than usual that day because the inside paths were probably better than I originally thought. I looked at the charts again after the FL Derby.

The FL Derby pace looked comparable or even slower than the FOYs (based on visual impression, I haven't done a pace figure yet), but the leaders fell apart. I think it's possible the difference was mostly in the track conditions and not the fractions or horses' performances.

[classhandicapper]

Doesn't SEEMINGLY work as well on dirt cause of all the DIRT flying around. But it does work on dirt and it's a thing of beauty to watch.

I am a big believer in drafting, but I don't try to measure the impact based on observation alone. I measure it based on the figures earned also.

If a horse usually runs 100 and gets a trip that looks like he may have benefitted from drafting (I love sitting on the rail behind horses and squirting through late turn) and runs a 107, I just discount it.

If he gets 104, I discount it less.

To me, there are so many interrelated factors (most of which can't be measured perfectly or formulized well) that I am just looking to get a more general feel for the trip and ability and not a final "number".

[john del riccio]

- on Stormello - I wouldn't expect them to change this horse's style at this point. He has peaked as a young racehorse and that is his style. I always advocate being patient with a talented horse and teaching him to rate. Not all horses can LEARN to rate, and some horses are so talented they don't need to rate to win a lot of 3yo races (Brother Derek comes to mind from last years crop). The trainers don't always take the patient route when graded stakes are within arms reach.
With Stormello you have a horse that breaks alertly, has natural speed and a ton of heart. The problem is his pedigree suggests that going beyond 8.5f could be a challenge and his running style is also one of the hardest to maintain for 9+ furlongs.


drafting - sure it matters to some degree. Could it be about a length difference? Maybe. More? I don't know.. They probably have to be right on someones heels to get the full effect , but any reduction of wind force would make life a little easier. Not only that if sitting behind horses prevents your horse from gunning to the front, and saves you some ground, there is more energy to use for the stretch run. A horse on the lead also saves ground and runs in a straight(er) path, so this is a multi-tiered physics problem.
Not sure if anyone has written a physics book for horseracing using "models" and basic principles to tackle questions like this.

Robert,

I think Stormello is rateable, not from well off the pace but rateable. If I thought he was a need the lead type, I woudn't have been as behind him as I was.

JOhn

[the_fat_man]

In hindsight, I am looking at the charts of the FOY card and wondering whether the inside was better that day than I originally thought.

This brings up an interesting point.

For me, proper analysis of a race involves, among other things, an understanding of any biases. So, I look at the positions (in terms of lengths ahead/behind) at the 2F and 4F calls to determine if there was a speed/closer bias for the day. (It's more complicated than this, of course, cause poor trips or bad rides mide indicate a bias when one doesn't exist.) I also, in theory, cause I'm real lazy, repeatedly watch the races and note the position of a given horse in relation to the rail at NUMEROUS points in the race. So, for a sprint, I'd note it: upon settling; mid/late backstretch, entering turn, mid turn, late turn/entering stretch, midstrech and at the wire.

The problem with looking at charts is that they're not terribly reliable OR comprehensive. I'm mentioned this on another tread (referring to the comments on Jersey Gia). No mention in the charts, for example, that Adore the Gold DUCKED OUT about as badly as you'd want at the break of the FOY.

So, when the chartman says 'came inside' or 'inside trip' this could mean

1) inside on the backstretch
2) inside on the turn
3) inside entering the stretch
4) inside to the wire

Now, if there's an INSIDE bias, where exactly is the inside fast? ALL OVER; just in the stretch; on the turns?

If in doubt, fire up the replays:D

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,

I think Stormello is rateable, not from well off the pace but rateable. If I thought he was a need the lead type, I woudn't have been as behind him as I was.

JOhn

It is a hard thing to read into a horse. There are many degrees of rating as well. Sometimes if a couple speed horses would out-break a horse like Stormello it would be to his benefit to not get the lead at the first call.

Ketchikan is another horse who IMO has not shown the ability to rate. Many people will say his natural style is stalking... Everyone jumps on Pat Melancon for "gunning" in the LA Derby, I thought he was somewhat restrained but not choked back. Then I look at his fairgrounds races where he supposedly rated, and he was going hard the entire race. He just didn't break on top. Then I look at the pedigree and it says about 8-8.5furlongs...
It comes down to what you happen to see and what educated guesses you make. So many factors...

[bobphilo]

From several recent posts I’m getting the impression that people are confusing drafting with sitting behind another horse to reduce wind resistance - something that harness racing people call “racing with cover”

Drafting is when a horse runs behind and to the side of another horse – not directly behind. The benefit from this position is not from protection from wind resistance but an added aerodynamic boost from the other horses air wake. This is best illustrated in the formation of flying birds that do not fly directly behind each other but in an inverted V formation. Horses do not have to be in a position that could cause them to clip heels to benefit from drafting.



Though drafting is well known to competitive cyclists, it is never even mentioned by jockeys. The closest they come to it, and what some are confusing with drafting, is “racing with cover” – not the same thing at all.



Bob

[bobphilo]

From several recent posts I’m getting the impression that people are confusing drafting with sitting behind another horse to reduce wind resistance - something that harness racing people call “racing with cover”

Drafting is when a horse runs behind and to the side of another horse – not directly behind. The benefit from this position is not from protection from wind resistance but an added aerodynamic boost from the other horses air wake. This is best illustrated in the formation of flying birds that do not fly directly behind each other but in an inverted V formation. Horses do not have to be in a position that could cause them to clip heels to benefit from drafting.



Though drafting is well known to competitive cyclists, it is never even mentioned by jockeys. The closest they come to it, and what some are confusing with drafting, is “racing with cover” – not the same thing at all.



Bob

A slight correction just to clarify. Technically one can be running directly behind another and still be drafting. My point was that this is not the only drafting position and, as bird formations show, one can draft from the side and still get the boost from the air wake.
My futher point is that jockeys do not talk about, nor use drafting in the sense of getting this boost as birds do, but rather in the sense of racing with cover.

Bob

[classhandicapper]

This brings up an interesting point.

For me, proper analysis of a race involves, among other things, an understanding of any biases. So, I look at the positions (in terms of lengths ahead/behind) at the 2F and 4F calls to determine if there was a speed/closer bias for the day. (It's more complicated than this, of course, cause poor trips or bad rides mide indicate a bias when one doesn't exist.) I also, in theory, cause I'm real lazy, repeatedly watch the races and note the position of a given horse in relation to the rail at NUMEROUS points in the race. So, for a sprint, I'd note it: upon settling; mid/late backstretch, entering turn, mid turn, late turn/entering stretch, midstrech and at the wire.

The problem with looking at charts is that they're not terribly reliable OR comprehensive. I'm mentioned this on another tread (referring to the comments on Jersey Gia). No mention in the charts, for example, that Adore the Gold DUCKED OUT about as badly as you'd want at the break of the FOY.

So, when the chartman says 'came inside' or 'inside trip' this could mean

1) inside on the backstretch
2) inside on the turn
3) inside entering the stretch
4) inside to the wire

Now, if there's an INSIDE bias, where exactly is the inside fast? ALL OVER; just in the stretch; on the turns?

If in doubt, fire up the replays:D

I agree with you. It gets down to how much time you are willing to put into the analysis and how much your ROI improves with the incremental knowledge that results.

[classhandicapper]

A slight correction just to clarify. Technically one can be running directly behind another and still be drafting. My point was that this is not the only drafting position and, as bird formations show, one can draft from the side and still get the boost from the air wake.
My futher point is that jockeys do not talk about, nor use drafting in the sense of getting this boost as birds do, but rather in the sense of racing with cover.

Bob

Bob,

Interesting distinction.

My view is that it's virtually impossible to measure the benefit a horse might be getting from either except by watching the race to see if he was in a position to "potentially" benefit and then looking to see if he earned an inflated figure relative to his norm or your expectations.

[dylbert]

In auto racing, racing behind and to right is preferred position when trying to overtake leader. This is occurs frequently in last lap shootout situations.

I don't know if this would translate to horse racing. I've never seen auto race determined by head-bobbing nose at the wire.

[bobphilo]

Bob,

Interesting distinction.

My view is that it's virtually impossible to measure the benefit a horse might be getting from either except by watching the race to see if he was in a position to "potentially" benefit and then looking to see if he earned an inflated figure relative to his norm or your expectations.

Class, good point. The effect of drafting is indeed much harder to quantify than ground loss, and even a hot pace. While it's true that cyclists can get an amazing 40% energy boost from drafting. A lightweight-racing bike will be more likely to feel the affects of the air wake than a 1200 lb T-bred.

As you say, the only way to measure it’s affect is to observe if drafting horses seem to be getting an advantage in either position or speed ratings, much like one evaluates a rail bias. The fact that riders are not really familiar with it means that it will occur more on a chance basis and therefore be even harder to spot.



Bob

[JPinMaryland]

First off, we'd probably need a phD guy to give us any sort of thorough answere on drafting but there are a couple of issues here that would need to be answered before I can be convinced this is really happening.

FOr one thing, these bicyclist guys are w/in inches of each others wheels. It may be possible to be this close by being off to one of side of the horse, so I think that is a good pt. but still the problem remains how to remain w/in inches of the horse for any sort of length of time?


Moreover, most of these drafting situations involve bodies that are: extremely aerodynamic, going over a very smooth surface and nearly contant speeds. This is not really happening in horse racing. It is possible that equines are so peculiarly shaped that there is no aerodynamic effect the air traveling over the head, the rider and the tail just isnt moving in an efficient pattern.

Be that as it may, I think a bigger problem is that these horse are not moving smoothly, they are bouncing all up and down. Just do a search on laminar flow and vortices and the idea is that the process becomes extremely complicated once the flow is broken up. Really have doubts about a horse bouncing up and down being able to create the laminar flow necessary here.

What's going on in pelotons is based on extremely aerodynamic shaped bodies that are going for long periods in smooth paths. And they have it down to a science, taking turns, etc. It is all well organized unlike horses that are not working in tandem. Adn there is still some gain for the rider in front, two riders together is still better than one lone rider, the effect works for both. SO you have to figure on that too.

Another guy says w/ race cars the drafting effect is non existent below 70 mph and also it is useless on corners, do you have to figure out at what pt. does a 1100 lb. animal become draftable:

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Auto-Racing-1609/drafting.htm

[Robert Fischer]

Drafting?

Jockeys and horses in a tightly positioned turf race.
Sheema Classic 3/31/2007:
*See track-cam from 50seconds in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSoObkK-11M

[the_fat_man]

First off, we'd probably need a phD guy to give us any sort of thorough answere on drafting but there are a couple of issues here that would need to be answered before I can be convinced this is really happening.

FOr one thing, these bicyclist guys are w/in inches of each others wheels. It may be possible to be this close by being off to one of side of the horse, so I think that is a good pt. but still the problem remains how to remain w/in inches of the horse for any sort of length of time?


Moreover, most of these drafting situations involve bodies that are: extremely aerodynamic, going over a very smooth surface and nearly contant speeds. This is not really happening in horse racing. It is possible that equines are so peculiarly shaped that there is no aerodynamic effect the air traveling over the head, the rider and the tail just isnt moving in an efficient pattern.

Be that as it may, I think a bigger problem is that these horse are not moving smoothly, they are bouncing all up and down. Just do a search on laminar flow and vortices and the idea is that the process becomes extremely complicated once the flow is broken up. Really have doubts about a horse bouncing up and down being able to create the laminar flow necessary here.

What's going on in pelotons is based on extremely aerodynamic shaped bodies that are going for long periods in smooth paths. And they have it down to a science, taking turns, etc. It is all well organized unlike horses that are not working in tandem. Adn there is still some gain for the rider in front, two riders together is still better than one lone rider, the effect works for both. SO you have to figure on that too.

Another guy says w/ race cars the drafting effect is non existent below 70 mph and also it is useless on corners, do you have to figure out at what pt. does a 1100 lb. animal become draftable:

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Auto-Racing-1609/drafting.htm

You (JP and the rest on this forum) really need to WATCH MORE RACES
rather than formulating theories. The issue here is not quantifying the exact advantage or the level to which a horse DRAFTS per the definition. It's about gaining advantages by reducing the amount of wind the horse is exposed to. THUS, a horse on the outside breaking its own wind GETS a POORER trip than a horse on the inside or middle, behind or between horses.
(All other things being equal.)
If you've ridden in a peloton or a velodrome you realize that while being an inch behind is the optimum, a couple of lengths behind also provides some advantage. And you'd understand why a horse checked behind a pack is actually GAINING A HUGE ADVANTAGE rather than being the victim of TROUBLE.

Moreover, the idea is not that some horse drafts and wins the race solely because it was able to draft. (Although, this can happen on the turf). It's about WHEN a move is made and under what circumstances. Dodgem ran, and won, the other day at AQU. In it's previous race, the horse is sitting 3rd outside behind the speed and the chalk, which is on the rail. On the turn, rather than letting the chalk go after the speed, Dodgem's jock decides he needs to make the first move and goes up alongside the speed. The chalk's jock, seeing this, doesn't ask for run and is content to just sit inside. When they turn for home, the speed has done its running, and so has Dodgem. Only then is the chalk let loose (asked) and wins easily. Does the least bit of running and wins the race. Here's an example of using position ---inside and behind --- and move to advantage. Cowtown Cat got the same trip in the Gotham. Chelokee got the same trip in the Florida Derby and the allowance race prior to it.

If there's a velodrome anywhere near your area, I suggest you get down there and watch the track racers. You can see the setups and predict the winner going into the final turn. If only jockeys were as good when it comes to trips.

[john del riccio]

You (JP and the rest on this forum) really need to WATCH MORE RACES
rather than formulating theories. The issue here is not quantifying the exact advantage or the level to which a horse DRAFTS per the definition. It's about gaining advantages by reducing the amount of wind the horse is exposed to. THUS, a horse on the outside breaking its own wind GETS a POORER trip than a horse on the inside or middle, behind or between horses.
(All other things being equal.)
If you've ridden in a peloton or a velodrome you realize that while being an inch behind is the optimum, a couple of lengths behind also provides some advantage. And you'd understand why a horse checked behind a pack is actually GAINING A HUGE ADVANTAGE rather than being the victim of TROUBLE.

Moreover, the idea is not that some horse drafts and wins the race solely because it was able to draft. (Although, this can happen on the turf). It's about WHEN a move is made and under what circumstances. Dodgem ran, and won, the other day at AQU. In it's previous race, the horse is sitting 3rd outside behind the speed and the chalk, which is on the rail. On the turn, rather than letting the chalk go after the speed, Dodgem's jock decides he needs to make the first move and goes up alongside the speed. The chalk's jock, seeing this, doesn't ask for run and is content to just sit inside. When they turn for home, the speed has done its running, and so has Dodgem. Only then is the chalk let loose (asked) and wins easily. Does the least bit of running and wins the race. Here's an example of using position ---inside and behind --- and move to advantage. Cowtown Cat got the same trip in the Gotham. Chelokee got the same trip in the Florida Derby and the allowance race prior to it.

If there's a velodrome anywhere near your area, I suggest you get down there and watch the track racers. You can see the setups and predict the winner going into the final turn. If only jockeys were as good when it comes to trips.

Maybe other folks what have owned thoroughbreds can chime in on this as well because there is another factor I haven't seen brought up in this discussion. Some horses don't like getting hit in the face with dirt. Being on the outside of horses prevents this from happening. The way the dirt gets kicked up its arcs (almost like a parabola). If the horse is close enough or farther enough away from the source such that its natural path doesn't intersect with the path of the dirt, they avoid it hitting them in the face. The very first horse I ever owned was called a "chicken" by the trainer which initially made me a little upset because I didn't know what he meant. After he explained it to me, my eyes were opened to a whole dimension of racing dynamics that I never knew existed. As it turned out, this particular horse ran well when on the lead but if he was behind horses, he backed up GAMELY. I initially though that he just needed the lead to win but that was not the case. After on erace in particular, the jockey plainly stated that as soon as the dirt hit him, he just spit out the bit. Next time he ran, he kept him outside horses and not on the lead and he ran very well. I had this particular horse for almost a year before he was claimed and he ran almost directly related to how much dirt he had to eat. Its a side of racing that taught me alot about what most speed handicappers despise acknowledging and that is that class does exist, it just takes on several dimensions that manifest themselves in ways that aren't always obvious.

John

[the_fat_man]

Maybe other folks what have owned thoroughbreds can chime in on this as well because there is another factor I haven't seen brought up in this discussion. Some horses don't like getting hit in the face with dirt. Being on the outside of horses prevents this from happening. The way the dirt gets kicked up its arcs (almost like a parabola). If the horse is close enough or farther enough away from the source such that its natural path doesn't intersect with the path of the dirt, they avoid it hitting them in the face. The very first horse I ever owned was called a "chicken" by the trainer which initially made me a little upset because I didn't know what he meant. After he explained it to me, my eyes were opened to a whole dimension of racing dynamics that I never knew existed. As it turned out, this particular horse ran well when on the lead but if he was behind horses, he backed up GAMELY. I initially though that he just needed the lead to win but that was not the case. After on erace in particular, the jockey plainly stated that as soon as the dirt hit him, he just spit out the bit. Next time he ran, he kept him outside horses and not on the lead and he ran very well. I had this particular horse for almost a year before he was claimed and he ran almost directly related to how much dirt he had to eat. Its a side of racing that taught me alot about what most speed handicappers despise acknowledging and that is that class does exist, it just takes on several dimensions that manifest themselves in ways that aren't always obvious.

John

Anyone watching races knows this. Yeah, we're aware that certain horses OR JOCKEYS don't like dirt in their faces. Knowing the 'habits' of horses is a key component of my handicapping and, I imagine, for that of many others.

Now, if you were to fire up recent AQU races, say Brown Butter's 2nd to last race, for example, you'd see very little in the way of kickback and a perfect inside quasi-draft and come out in the stretch trip. Dominguez has this down perfectly. I mean, if he has any kind of horse he wins the Florida Derby with essentially the same trip --- he certainly has a shot to win if he stays on the rail through the stretch run.

On the other hand, check out CP West's last race, this weekend at GP, for ALOT of kickback. No wonder, CP, and others, were on the outside in that race. Same thing was going on yesterday at GP --- tons of dirt flying.

The point is that one needs to watch races, HEADONS of races, to be able to determine what's happening. Sitting behind a desk, calculating numbers and assuming that things hold generally is just not enough. These are individual things that need to be checked out. There are so many factors that go into a race, so many seemingly LITTLE THINGS that determine whether a horse wins OR how fast it runs that I'm continually fascinated/frustrated by the need to quantify and thus generalize.

This is not in any way a critique. I applaud the figure makers for being able to make some sense out of the chaos that is a horse race and to do so with a high level of consistency. AND less work.:D

[bobphilo]

You (JP and the rest on this forum) really need to WATCH MORE RACES
rather than formulating theories. The issue here is not quantifying the exact advantage or the level to which a horse DRAFTS per the definition. It's about gaining advantages by reducing the amount of wind the horse is exposed to. THUS, a horse on the outside breaking its own wind GETS a POORER trip than a horse on the inside or middle, behind or between horses.
(All other things being equal.)


Fat Man, you really need to READ THIS THREAD MORE CAREFULLY. As pointed out before, there is a difference in the wind breaking effect a horse gets from racing directly behind other horses (cover) and the extra boost he also gets from drafting behind and to the side of another.

Nobody is denying the advantage of not getting wind in the face. What we are discussing is whether racehorses get the extra push from drafting from behind and to the side that cyclists and racecars do.

Whatever your aversion to applying the laws of physics to racing is, the posters attempts to see how much they apply to race horses is clearly the way to go. That DOES NOT mean we don’t also watch races. It’s not always clear from watching races whether horses are getting any extra boost from drafting other than cover from the wind. That’s why it makes sense to see if it’s even possible according to the laws of physics, and to what extent.



Bob

[the_fat_man]

Fat Man, you really need to READ THIS THREAD MORE CAREFULLY. As pointed out before, there is a difference in the wind breaking effect a horse gets from racing directly behind other horses (cover) and the extra boost he also gets from drafting behind and to the side of another.

Nobody is denying the advantage of not getting wind in the face. What we are discussing is whether racehorses get the extra push from drafting from behind and to the side that cyclists and racecars do.

Whatever your aversion to applying the laws of physics to racing is, the posters attempts to see how much they apply to race horses is clearly the way to go. That DOES NOT mean we don’t also watch races. It’s not always clear from watching races whether horses are getting any extra boost from drafting other than cover from the wind. That’s why it makes sense to see if it’s even possible according to the laws of physics, and to what extent.



Bob

BOb

do me a BIG FAVOR

don't respond to any of my posts

you basically reITERATE everything I SAY only you seem to OBFUSCATE it in the process --- people here are confused or LAZY enough

so, I'm slapping you on IGGY, cause every time I read your posts I'm left shaking my head wondering why you're out here

You're BASICALLY CLULESS: you've obvious never been on a BIKE let alone a TRACK BIKE and you don't watch races.

Now, what else might you have to offer besides what your read?

P.S. don't respond to me ---- I can't see it.

Do me a favor bro, enough is enough. I'm tired of debating trips with people that DON't WATCH RACES and don't have the background to properly interpret them even if they did.

[PaceAdvantage]

Do me a favor bro, enough is enough. I'm tired of debating trips with people that DON't WATCH RACES and don't have the background to properly interpret them even if they did.

Why do I get the impression that in your own mind, NOBODY is worthy of debating you on the subject of handicapping, trips, etc. etc.

Your attitude stinks at the moment. You know that?

[the_fat_man]

Why do I get the impression that in your own mind, NOBODY is worthy of debating you on the subject of handicapping, trips, etc. etc.

Your attitude stinks at the moment. You know that?

ABSOLUTELY, not true, Pace

I engage all and, in most cases, PATIENTLY.

Bob needs to comment on just about everything I post. Check it out.

And, frankly, if I'm willing to do the work and watch the races I comment on

wouldn't you think it was only fair that those taking exception to my comments would at least take the time to watch the races?

Only fair.

[PaceAdvantage]

And, frankly, if I'm willing to do the work and watch the races I comment on wouldn't you think it was only fair that those taking exception to my comments would at least take the time to watch the races?

Only fair.

I agree. But even if they do take the time to watch the races (and how do you know they don't?) you shoot right back that they "don't have the background to properly INTERPRET" what they are watching.

How can the seeds of an interesting debate ever be planted with that kind of set-up?

[46zilzal]

It has been my experience that trip cappers are prone to OVER-analyze races and project better results next time when OFTEN, the horses are going off form.

[the_fat_man]

I agree. But even if they do take the time to watch the races (and how do you know they don't?) you shoot right back that they "don't have the background to properly INTERPRET" what they are watching.

How can the seeds of an interesting debate ever be planted with that kind of set-up?

You ever see a post where I direct that statement at CJ or Classhandicapper or DrugS (when he was here) or just about anyone who offers an opinion that clearly indicates they've done their homework (not just generally but concerning the race/horse in question)?

And you're correct, when someone has demonstrated in the past that they're beyond clueless as to a particular aspect of the game, I have no problem stating that publically.

Ever see me in jump into a discussion concerning VALUE or Money Management or the NUANCES of FIGURES or the best handicapping SOFTWARE? I have nothing to offer here. I read and I try to learn.

[misscashalot]

I agree. But even if they do take the time to watch the races (and how do you know they don't?) you shoot right back that they "don't have the background to properly INTERPRET" what they are watching.

How can the seeds of an interesting debate ever be planted with that kind of set-up?

Yeah...fatman did that to me also when I commented on Coa's ride on Laurentide. He attacked me personally calling me missSMOKEalot. Lets hang em from the nearest tree....

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah...fatman did that to me also when I commented on Coa's ride on Laurentide. He attacked me personally calling me missSMOKEalot. Lets hang em from the nearest tree....

This ain't Festivus, so no airing of grievances allowed....and definitely no hangings either....

[misscashalot]

This ain't Festivus, so no airing of grievances allowed....and definitely no hangings either....

ah shucks mr dillon.

[bobphilo]

Interesting how the fact that the Fat Man knows nothing about my background or experience in racing, does not keep him from launching unfounded personal attacks on me or anyone else who dares to challenge any of his “infallible” opinions. Forget the issues, just resort to name-calling.

He won’t even accept Pace telling him to knock it off.

Tempted as I am to respond in kind to his vicious post, I’ll just let his temper tantrum speak for itself.



I intend to continue respectful discussion with all the posters here as to whether or not drafting could be factor in horse racing. Good thread guys – there’s a lot more that can be learned on the topic.



Bob

[the_fat_man]

This ain't Festivus, so no airing of grievances allowed....and definitely no hangings either....

Yeah, MISSsmokealot didn't want to take the time to watch the race and NOTicE her boyfriend COA INTENTIONALLY try to PUT Martin over the rail.

Why would she watch the race when she could just jump in the thread and disagree?

I believe CJ finally gave her the spanking she deserved.

Although, it apparently wasn't enough to be made to look foolish publically, as she's back for more.:bang:

How can I help you, Smokey?

[misscashalot]

Yeah, MISSsmokealot didn't want to take the time to watch the race and NOTicE her boyfriend COA INTENTIONALLY try to PUT Martin over the rail.

Why would she watch the race when she could just jump in the thread and disagree?

I believe CJ finally gave her the spanking she deserved.

Although, it apparently wasn't enough to be made to look foolish publically, as she's back for more.:bang:

How can I help you, Smokey?

blush blush...i aint a doll..Im a guy.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, before this goes any further, any post from now on in this thread NOT about horse racing gets deleted. Meaning, no personal stuff...just horse racing, as it was meant to be....pure and simple.

[bobphilo]

Drafting?

Jockeys and horses in a tightly positioned turf race.
Sheema Classic 3/31/2007:
*See track-cam from 50seconds in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSoObkK-11M

The winner definetly benefited from racing with cover and even when he went clear he still was getting the possible benefit of drafting from the horse inside and in front of him until the last furlong when he struck the lead.
The only thing is that several other horses got a similarly favorable trip and the most likely factor in his win was that he had the best late speed in the field and was in good position in the lane the to take advantage of it.

Bob

[46zilzal]

Turf races are classic for having bad trips as the bulk of the horses bunch up so often as opposed to the dirt. Nothing new.

One of the many reasons that dirt racing gets the bulk of my support.

[bobphilo]

Turf races are classic for having bad trips as the bulk of the horses bunch up so often as opposed to the dirt. Nothing new.

One of the many reasons that dirt racing gets the bulk of my support.

Amen to that. I lost all the money I made on the Dubai dirt races on the turf races. :bang:
Now turf races with small fields, however, are a different proposition. :)

Bob

[misscashalot]

Amen to that. I lost all the money I made on the Dubai dirt races on the turf races. :bang:
Now turf races with small fields, however, are a different proposition. :)

Bob Bob...a question...are jockeys more important in turf races than on the dirt?

[Indulto]

Editor's Note:

I said, only horse posts from now on in this thread!

[speed]

Fat,

What site do you get head-ons from.

I know of cal racing but were do you get yours?

THX

[bobphilo]

Bob...a question...are jockeys more important in turf races than on the dirt?

In general I'd say yes, though often in turf races, trips are a matter of luck, regardless of how good the jockey is - especially with larrge fields. Jerry Bailey once said that he tried to ride most of his turf races on the rail and hoped a hole would open on the inside. He felt that usually it did, but sometimes he was just out of luck.

In South Africa they often race with a false (moveable) rail around the turn but it opens up again in the stretch so the inside horses can get through.

Bob