UP AND COMING HANDICAPPER

[ImCashinIn]

HELLO,
I WAS TOLD BY A VERY POPULAR HANDICAPPER THIS IS WHERE I SHOULD START. SO HERE GOES.
I HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OVER THE PAST YEARS AND HAVE FINALLY COME UP WITH SOMETHING THAT REALLY WORKS. MY GOAL IS TO BE THE NEXT HANDICAPPER IN THE LOCAL PAPERS. TO GET MY NAME OUT THERE TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC, I'VE CREATED A WEB SITE. IN THAT WEB SITE, YOU'LL GET A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF WHAT I DO, PLUS, YOU'LL GET MY PICKS FOR THE CURRENT RUNNING OF TRACKS IN CALIFORNIA.
I ASK NOTHING IN RETURN EXCEPT FEEDBACK FROM YOU, THE HORSE PLAYER. SO PLEASE, CHECK IT OUT AND TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK.

www.imcashinin.com (http://www.imcashinin.com/)

[Kelso]

MY GOAL IS TO BE THE NEXT HANDICAPPER IN THE LOCAL PAPERS.


Good luck to you, ICI. (Does that pay much? Percs?)

[highnote]

HELLO,
I WAS TOLD BY A VERY POPULAR HANDICAPPER THIS IS WHERE I SHOULD START. SO HERE GOES.
I HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OVER THE PAST YEARS AND HAVE FINALLY COME UP WITH SOMETHING THAT REALLY WORKS. MY GOAL IS TO BE THE NEXT HANDICAPPER IN THE LOCAL PAPERS. TO GET MY NAME OUT THERE TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC, I'VE CREATED A WEB SITE. IN THAT WEB SITE, YOU'LL GET A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF WHAT I DO, PLUS, YOU'LL GET MY PICKS FOR THE CURRENT RUNNING OF TRACKS IN CALIFORNIA.
I ASK NOTHING IN RETURN EXCEPT FEEDBACK FROM YOU, THE HORSE PLAYER. SO PLEASE, CHECK IT OUT AND TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK.

www.imcashinin.com (http://www.imcashinin.com/)

Here are some of my initial thoughts:

1. Can you use lower case letters, please? It feels like you're shouting at me.

2. Buy an ad on this website and become an authorized advertiser -- you'll get a lot more respect and credibility.

3. Read the board and become a regular contributor before jumping in and asking everybody to go to your site. You may have opened up yourself to a lot of criticism from a tough crowd.

4. Post the results of your picks on your website so that the interested person does not have to download an XLS or RTF document. That is annoying.

5. At least your picks are free. The price is right.

Honestly, your site is of little use to me.

I do wish you the best of luck, though.

Cheers.

[Greyfox]

Your selections for yesterday were brilliant. Unfortunately, you posted them here after they were run. Any picks for tomorrow?

[ImCashinIn]

Sorry for the caps....guess I got carried away. As for your other thoughts, I greatly appreciate them.

[ImCashinIn]

I'm new here to this forum, so please bear with me. My picks are up at least 5 hrs before 1st post. I know my first message was late tonight, long after the last race ran, but I wanted to iron out any kinks I may have had at my web site before opening the doors.
As for my results page, I will post them in an easier to read text.:)

[highnote]

Sorry for the caps....guess I got carried away. As for your other thoughts, I greatly appreciate them.


No problem. Good luck.

What you're doing takes a lot of work -- if you want to be good at it, that is. Hopefully, you can keep up with the workload required to put out a good product for many years to come.

[BigJake]

I would also recommend finding some space for your ROI. You should let people know how you've done. For the day?, week?, month?, year?, lifetime? I don't know, you'll need to decide. That really puts you out there because everyone will know how your doing.

[pic6vic]

This is not meant as a negative. Newspapers are cutting out handicappers from their sports sections. Especially here in Cal. If you think you can break into the selling of your picks, you have a lot of competition in Cal as most sites have been established for years.

Also most people on this site will not pay for picks as they are established players with their own methods. That said if you have developed a "SYSTEM" that works, you will not have to worry about selling.

This stated, what is your objective for sharing your system with everyone.

Just pointing out the roadblocks you will encounter.

[The Judge]

In some races there are a lot of horses named what are we to do when you name 4-5 horses in one race? What did these horses pay to win? How should they be bet? Are some horses better bets then others? To be honest it looks like one of the tip sheets sold at the track.

Best way to get your name out there is 1) Win a handicapping tournament 2) Get published in a respected handicapping journal like American Turf Montly etc.

[timtam]

My question will and always will be Why not just play your picks and

make a profit? Guys like Russ Harris have been in the paper for umpteen

years and with newspaper circulations going down it seems the time has

come and gone for guys like he. Most of the Racing form handicappers

are now using there own names but many become just names because of

downloading past performances and now at my OTB most people are

using the Daily Racing Program with handicappers like Rocky, Larry, Mike

Juris, etc. My personal opinion for a guy who wants to get his name OUT

THERE as a great public handicapper unfortunately time has passed for

that endevour. Just my opinion but I do wish you well.

[Ron]

I WANT TO BE THE NEXT GREAT HANDICAPPER.

[DanG]

I WANT TO BE THE NEXT GREAT HANDICAPPER.
LOL…:D

Ron,

If its not you cracking me up it’s that avatar. I love that SNL skit.

Signed;

Christopher Walken

Sorry ‘ImCashinIn”, I couldn’t resist.

[MitchS]

I wish I was still running horses at Beulah, I want to meet the Beulah twins :kiss: ... Oh wait wrong thread :eek: .

[jotb]

Hello all:

It drives me crazy when someone touts a race with several selections in a race that has a short field. Today for instance, he gives you 4 selections in race number 4 that has 7 horses in it. In the 5th race he gives 5 selections in a 10 horse field and in race number 2 he gives you 3 selections in a 6 horse field. I guess the point of that is because of the exoctics but it still drives me crazy.

joe

[Show Me the Wire]

Me too jotb. Public handicappers should identify one horse as the winner and indicate the others as potential exotic fillers. Real life scenarios do not usually allow us the luxury to bet 3 or more horses to win.

[jotb]

Me too jotb. Public handicappers should identify one horse as the winner and indicate the others as potential exotic fillers. Real life scenarios do not usually allow us the luxury to bet 3 or more horses to win.

Hello Showmethewire:

That's what I was thinking. I think the public handicapper if he has the confidence in his selections should outline which exoctics should be played. I'm not sure what this public handicapper is telling me when he selects 5 horses in a 10 horse field. Is he saying the race is wide open or use all these horses in the p4? Why should a public handicapper take credit in a p4 if he does not come out and tell me use all my horses in the p4 races? I think the public handicapper should put himself out there (have the chops) telling me how to use these selections if he wants me to believe that he has the capacity to win certain exoctics. Do you feel the same way?

Best regards,
Joe

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I'd prefer a public handicapper to make an odds line on multiple horses.

[highnote]

He should check out some of the other tip services on TrackMaster to see how they do it.

I like Jim Quinn's tip sheet the best. He gives good, clear analysis of the race and then tells you which horses are win bets, which should be used in exactas, tris, etc. He also tells you minimum acceptable odds.

Imcashin gives no analysis at all. How is a reader supposed to know if he knows what he's talking about?

I think Imcashin in needs to kick it up a notch.

Then again, he's not pandering to the audience on PA. His audience gets their picks from the local rag. Maybe just posting some names is good enough for some people.

[banacek]

Well he's apparently listening to some of the advice. I just went back on the site and he has results from yesterday (on the web, not word or excel) with prices. Much more readable.

[jotb]

He should check out some of the other tip services on TrackMaster to see how they do it.

I like Jim Quinn's tip sheet the best. He gives good, clear analysis of the race and then tells you which horses are win bets, which should be used in exactas, tris, etc. He also tells you minimum acceptable odds.

Imcashin gives no analysis at all. How is a reader supposed to know if he knows what he's talking about?

I think Imcashin in needs to kick it up a notch.

Then again, he's not pandering to the audience on PA. His audience gets their picks from the local rag. Maybe just posting some names is good enough for some people.

Hello Swetyejohn:

I don't pay attention to tip sheets so I really don't know much about them. I just took a look at this guys website and thought it should be done a certain way and sure enough you replied back about Jim Quinn's tip sheet. That's the way it should be done if you are going to make a tip sheet. Imcashin is not heading in the right direction and it looks to me he didn't put much thought into this. I read that he worked for a trainer and has been around for 30 years. I think using worked for a trainer means that he has been around the backside and gets good information. We all know what that really means. People that work on the backside are usually broke just because they bet on the horses they take care of thinking they have an edge. They usually never pay attention to the opposition and figure they know the horse is doing real good but they forget that the opposition is doing just as good. I've been around the backside for a long time and the majority of the time that type of information usually goes down the tube. The only good information is maybe with first time starters but what happens there is everybody else knows about it and then the public jumps on it as well and before you know it the horse is less than even money. Anyway, I got off topic but if Imcashin want to succeed at this he needs to put more thought into how he is going to attract the public more.

Best regards,
Joe

[Sabe]

Personally, I'd prefer a public handicapper to make an odds line on multiple horses. Coincidently, I mentioned such a site www.profit-picks.com under the FREE PICKS thread.

[BeatTheChalk]

we need more Cow Bell !!!

[dylbert]

I WANT TO BE THE NEXT GREAT HANDICAPPER. I am the NEXT GREAT HANDICAPPER coming to a mutuel field near YOU SOON!

[ImCashinIn]

Yes Joe, I know what you mean. But isn't that how most people bet? By spreading out in those races where the favorite is vunerable? I just don't toss in any horse. My picks are based on more than just tossing a longshot in here or there. And exotics are the path to great rewards in my opinion. Betting the last 3 races on Thursday, and the first 5 on Friday, wagering on every type exotic bet offered ( minus the super), and boxing every horse I had picked in those races would have cost a total of $322.00. But the payoff was $3,672.90. A profit of $3,350.90. Thats why at times I spread the field. Not just to say "I picked it". :cool:

[singunner]

I figure this fits in with the topic a little. I just ran the first analysis of my program's most basic functions and got a return of .87 (that's a loss since 1.00 would be breaking even) for the the month of January, 2006. That's if I bet 1 dollar (I know, you can't) on every horse my program says gets first in every race for that month, I'd have 87 cents for every dollar I spent. No rebates or anything (I don't exactly know how those work yet).

Is that a decent return for my first attempt? I'll let people know how things go as I progress. Am I the "NEXT BIG THING"?

[orrug2k]

I checked that out and its a bunch of results with a donation box. Thats really profit pics.

[Greyfox]

Your picks on Friday did very well Cashinin through the first five races.
Race 4 you nailed a beauty.
I noticed that you picked 5 runners in a race where # 7 Two Dimensional stood out as a single. As it turned out # 7 Two Dimensional was wiped out at the gate and lost all hope there. Did you have any "barn" info that there would be a conspiracy to prevent that runner from doing it's thing? I think a lot of pick 6 tickets went south when Matt Garcia's hopeless ride Elegant Victor
slammed the door on Two Dimensional.

[Show Me the Wire]

Greyfox:

Great point. Exactly why I stated that public selectors should designate which horse is the win bet and which are the fillers. I would wager the 50 to 1 would not have been his top selection.

[Tom]

The old sales pitch, "5 winners yesterday. 1 on top!"

[banacek]

Betting the last 3 races on Thursday, and the first 5 on Friday, wagering on every type exotic bet offered ( minus the super), and boxing every horse I had picked in those races would have cost a total of $322.00. But the payoff was $3,672.90. A profit of $3,350.90.

So I assume betting the first 5 races on Thursday, and the last 3 races on Friday would not have been so good?

Seriously. This is the kind of stuff the irritates people on this site. Tell us how you would bet them before the races and then give a recap after the races and we'd have something to work with. I've had days where I have had results like yours and done great and sometimes where I have lost. It all depends what you do with them. We need to know how you would suggest betting your selections (and all of the races, not just the ones you won).

[Turfday]

win, lose or draw, here's my analysis for today

BOB SELVIN at SANTA ANITA for SATURDAY

COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.

TURFDAY.COM: I frequently incorporate information/stats in my handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took years to complete and is now open. Take a look at it when you have the time and be sure to take the FREE TOUR offered at the site. TURFDAY.COM is a strategic partner of Equibase and Youbet.com. If you’re a serious player or simulcast player, this site is an absolute treasure trove of information!

PASSING: When you see "PASS or" first, my suggestion is to PASS the race because I feel that race is either boring, valueless, is too complicated or has too many question marks. The play is up to you. When I suggest a play first and then indicate "or PASS," my suggestion is to lean toward playing, but I'm obviously not crazy about or very interested in that race and it can easily be passed.

BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best value.

PICK THREE’S or PICK FOUR: I also do not play the Pick Three's randomly, but judiciously. Sometimes I don't play them at all. I occasionally offer a Pick Four play when I feel it is warranted. I don’t suggest these plays just so I can claim that I hit one the next day.

TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: In order to use my analysis successfully, comparing my fair odds line to the actual odds is essential. So you need to PAY ATTENTION ! See below.

MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (“bet againsts”?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.

TODAY’S MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: Will be identified in my fair odds line with “MLU” next to the horse’s name.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS TO GET THE MOST OUT OF MY SEMINAR: Whenever possible and/or when time permits, I will offer my own FAIR BETTING ODDS on my main contenders in a race. This game is based on VALUE. Comparing the actual track odds to my fair odds and deciding on a play means SOME JUDGMENT ON YOUR PART IS REQUIRED !! A winning player needs to be flexible. OFTEN my top choice(s) could be overbet well below my fair odds and my secondary contenders then could offer much better value. Don’t hesitate to play a nice overlay or PASS races when my choices are being overbet! (Unfortunately, any LATE SCRATCHES of contenders within a given race will make my fair odds INACCURATE.) Always remember… “if you don’t get it, don’t bet it.”

***There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 25% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!


FEEDBACK: Selvin@nationalturf.com


Odds Conversion Table to Percentage Chance of Winning. Use it to look for overlays that are 25% or higher than my fair odds. Odds are on left, then comparable percentage chance of winning.

1-10 91 4-1 20
1-5 83 9-2 18
2-5 71 5-1 17
1-2 67 6-1 14
3-5 63 7-1 13
4-5 56 8-1 11
1-1 50 9-1 10
6-5 45 10-1 9
7-5 42 11-1 8

3-2 40 12-1 8
8-5 38 15-1 6
9-5 36 20-1 5
2-1 33 25-1 4
5-2 29 30-1 3
3-1 25 50-1 2
7-2 22 99-1 1

ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, always keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also nullify my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.

All stats are from my Turfday.com database powered by Equibase data. All comments on workouts are from our clockers Andy Harrington or John Wilson.

COMMENT: I’m expecting a pretty good day today because of the way the races came up.

1ST— 11 VICE ADMIRAL on top, trifectas (four tickets) $6 11 w/ 2-4-7-8 w/ 2-4-7-8; $3 11 w/ 2 w/ 4-7-8; $2 11 w/ 4-7-8 w/ 2; $4 2-7 w/ 11 w/ 2-4-7-8

This field may have 11 starters, but there are six easy throwouts and then my five fair odds contenders. It’s going to take a big effort from one of my other fair odds contenders to beat favored VICE ADMIRAL with the most logical of those being Stormy Grant. Playing two short price maidens in a big field down the hill in the exacta doesn’t making gambling sense to me, so to get any kind of return, I’ll go to the trifecta. The thought being is that I have six throwouts among the 11 in the field to narrow my trifecta play down. VICE ADMIRAL has more tactical speed than Stormy Grant. He’s run second in a turf route vs. open company to the useful colt Silent Soul, a narrow loss in open company to Shem in a big field, then simply couldn’t keep up early with Baffert’s flashy speedster Mr Tex in his last. He’s just faster on figs than Stormy Grant and gets the better draw as well. On the other hand, Stormy Grant has every right to improve and should like the turf (sire Stormy Atlantic good turf sire, dam Exit for Ever was a turf winner). ‘Grant really worked well (:58.2h) on Mar. 22. Steamy Story has some positive longshot angles. His trainer Craig Lewis has very good stats with blinkers on, first time turf and dirt-to-turf 60-day cycle. Also, sire Unusual Heat is a prolific sire of turf winners as we all know. Kickin Back was claimed for $40,000 by sharp young trainer Pete Miller, who bumps him into a straight maiden Cal-bred race and tries turf. Moneyplaysjose, the horse that Kickin Back narrowly lost to on Mar. 4, came back to win (via DQ) a $62,500 claimer for winners yesterday. Perhaps Miller had a turf race in mind for Kickin Back because sire Perfect Mandate has done pretty well with his turf offspring with limited opportunities. Anzisong makes a trainer change to Glatt and goes route to sprint. He’s much more likely for a share than to win.

# Horse Odds
2 STORMY GRANT 5/2
4 ANZISONG 6/1
7 STEAMY STORY 6/1
8 KICKIN BACK 8/1
11 VICE ADMIRAL 8/5



2ND— 2 SPRIGZEE on top, exacta box 2-3-6; extra ticket or two 2-3, 3-2, 2-6, 6-2

It’s time to play “AWFUL TRAINER STATS” in this 10-horse field. After I present the stats, you decide if you want to include any of these in your exacta. Henry Moreno (Sharp Marc, 6/1) 6/142 last 1,095 calendar days including 1/36 last 365 days (has won one dirt route in last 1,095 days); David Bernstein (Fogged In, 30/1) 20/212 last 1,095 days, 7/147 last 365 days; Mag Perez (Hudson Bank, 3/1 second choice) 5/140 in last 1,095 days, including 2/64 in last 365 days (0/27 in route races in last 1,095 days!); Jason Orman (Chief Storm Cloud, 20/1), 18/211 in last 1,095 days, including 7/92 in last 365 days; Martin Valenzuela (City Lights, 12/1), 8/168 in last 1,095 days, including 4/63 in last 365 days (has won one route race in last 1,095 days). Do you trust 3/1 Hudson Bank to run two alike for a barn that hasn’t won a route race in more than three years? If any of these six are in the exacta, I lose.

SPRIGGZEE may have moved too soon in last. He looks like too much horse for most of these who have only won one or two races or are off form. If he’s feeling good today, he should beat these. And if he doesn’t, Rodeo Shopper, stretching out off the Marlow claim or speedy Traffic Udpate, who worked pretty well on Mar. 17, should. Marlow isn’t a win machine, either, but at least he’s 3/14 in the last 90 days. He’s 6/33 (a good 18%) first off the claim in last 1,095 days and he’s 8/54 (15%) going sprint-to-route. Rodeo Shopper has a real shot, especially if the blinkers help and give him a boost of speed, because he’s usually far back early. Traffic Update is good enough if he’s feeling it today and certainly has dangerous speed.

# Horse Odds
1 SHARP MARC 5/1
2 SPRIGGZEE 9/5
3 RODEO SHOPPER 3/1
5 HUDSON BANK (MLU)6/1
6 TRAFFIC UPDATE 5/1



3RD— (BEST PLAY) 1 TOM RICKEY on top, BP exactas 1-2, 1-3, 1-7, 1-9; smaller 3-1, 9-1 reverses

TOM RICKEY looks like the classic “grow up” play. In all three of his competitive races last year as a 2-year-old, he unluckily caught the “nuts” best 2-year-olds racing out here at that time. He comes back with a very good, strong work tab over the Cushion Track across town and gets blinkers. The added distance of 7 furlongs should work in his favor and it won’t take much better than he ran last year to beat a very average field of maidens. Although Turf Paradise trainer Molly Pearson has only four starts lifetime at Santa Anita (she has been much more active in So. Calif. at Hollywood Park and Del Mar), she has very competent stats with layoff types. Fortified hasn’t run to his good works, but is better than shown. He may be a race or two away from his best, but he’s worth using underneath. Buc the Spartan has trained really well for his debut and is by Mutakddim, an excellent first-out sire (48/278, 17%, A+ on Turfday.com). But it’s tough to win at 7 furlongs first-time out and winning first time out is not Cerin’s forte (only 18/241, 7%). Orientation Hall ran decently in a race-shape aided debut, but didn’t show any early speed in his workouts, nor did he in his race. Dart River was legged up in a route, turns back to a sprint and gets that cozy outside box. He’s got some tactical speed and should get a great trip from that post.

# Horse Odds
1 TOM RICKEY 9/5
2 FORTIFIED 12/1
3 BUC THE SPARTAN 5/1
7 ORIENTATION HALL 3/1
8 SOUTHERN MAN 14/1
9 DART RIVER 9/2


4TH— 1 NEKO BAY on top, exactas 1-5, 1-6, 5-1 or PASS.

I’m not going to be a hero picking talented upstart NEKO BAY or more proven, grizzled veteran Preachinatthebar, coming out of much tougher graded stakes company. In a close call, NEKO BAY, who has more upside, get the nod. I’m also offering up some chalky exactas or you can sit this one out.

# Horse Odds
1 NEKO BAY 9/5
2 FAIRBANKS 5/1
4 YES HE’S A PISTOL 8/1
5 PREACHINATTHEBAR 2/1
6 RACKETEER 9/2



Note: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can’t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes!

5th— 2 SENECA SONG & 12 UNUSUAL SPRING co-top choices; exactas 2-3, 2-11, 2-12, 12-2, 12-3, 12-11; extra tickets 2-12, 12-2; trifecta (1 ticket) $3 2-12 w/ 1-2-3-6-11-12 w/ 1-2-3-6-11-12.

The win and exacta play here is against 7/2 second choice Miss Silver Image, who is being “thrown away” and up for sale by Machowsky. She’s won three of eight and earned $62,740 in her brief career and was competitive two races back vs. second level allowance types. Why the drop to $32,000? You can say the same thing for UNUSUAL SPRING, except the difference is O’Neill’s barn is like a factory and class drops like this are commonplace for him. And unlike Miss Silver Image, UNUSUAL SPRING looks to hold a sizeable edge over the rest of these if she’s in one piece. And O’Neill wheels her back with only 14 days rest, a very positive sign, so I suspect she definitely is. Appears connections are simply trying to win a race knowing they will probably lose her via claim but win a nice purse. Don’t be surprised if SENECA SONG is “bet down” off a bad morning line. She’s simply WAY too big a price on the program and must be considered. Pedroza tried to guzzle her down last time instead of allowing her to show her speed for fear of getting into a pace duel with Udriga. The tactic backfired. Charmin Dot and Run for Dessert each have a small longshot look and are worth using underneath in the exacta.

# Horse Odds
1 MISS SILVER IMAGE 5/1
2 SENECA SONG 6/1
3 CHARMIN DOT 7/1
6 KACHINA DREAM 12/1
11 RUN FOR DESSERT 12/1
12 UNUSUAL SPRING 2/1


6th— 5 CAT OF FIFTY SEVEN & 6 GONE CATTIN co-top choices; no exactas, just win bets.

Will front runners Victim of Love, Olympic Miler and Chief Cocca commit suicide up front and do each other in? Or will one shake loose but but softened up by the duel and set it up for stalker CAT OF FIFTY SEVEN or closers GONE CATTIN or Trevite? Interestingly, NONE of the three apparent front runners has ever shown a willingness to pass horses in the third or fourth call. If they turn up the heat on the front end, CAT OF FIFTY SEVEN could be in the catbird seat and get first run or honest GONE CATTIN, who loves this track, could win it from behind.

# Horse Odds
5 CAT OF FIFTY SEVEN5/2
6 GONE CATTIN 5/1
7 VICTIM OF LOVE 9/2
8 TREVITE 6/1
9 OLYMPIC MILER 5/1
10 CHIEF COCCA 10/1


7th— (BEST PLAY) 6 DON’TBEATATTLETALE & 11 RUSH RUSH co-top choices; BP exacta box 3-6-11; also BP exactas 3-12, 6-12, 11-12, saver 11-4

Obviously, a truly wide open race. Favored Skellytown broke his maiden nicely, but three of the horses behind him came back yesterday and got nothing behind Souvenir Slew and he spots most of these season. Also, jockey Cliff Potts is only 25/335 (lowly 7%) in last three years and in the long term, he’s only 26/113 (lowly 23%) riding turf favorites. Skellytown has promise, but he’s worth playing against in a grab bag. DON’TBEATATTLE TALE is on an excellent pattern of going sprint-to-route for Hofmans, who is 65/306 (xlnt 21%) with this move. In April, 2006, he ran on strongly in his debut turf route despite breaking slowly and a wide trip. There’s no reason that RUSH RUSH can’t go a flat mile. He’s probably going to start at a higher price than he’s ever been in five previous starts. Coming out of sprints, he figures to be much closer up to a slowish pace scenario. FIREBIRD SWEET is the fastest closer, but he comes from way far out of it, tough to do in a big field, and jockey Alex Solis hasn’t exactly been on top of his game. Quest Venture turned in a sharp sprint tuneup down the hill in his local debut for Mike Mitchell and was promptly claimed by John Sadler. He should be considered in this spot. Trying to avoid a four-horse exacta box, I’m using him underneath only.

# Horse Odds
3 FIREBIRD SWEET 4/1
4 SKELLYTOWN 9/2
6 DON’TBEATATTLETALE4/1
7 SYDNEY AGAIN 6/1
11 RUSH RUSH 10/1
12 QUEST VENTURE 5/1


BEST PLAY DAILY DOUBLE (races 7 & 8) 3-6-11 to 2-6-9 criss crossed; extra tickets 3-9, 6-9, 11-9

8th— (BEST PLAY) 9 TIZ NEXT on top, BP exactas 2-4, 2-6, 2-9, 9-2, 9-4, 9-6; plus BP exacta box 2-6-9.

TIZ NEXT pressed a good pace racing wide in a fast race she probably needed on Feb. 18 won by a runaway, odds on winner (Fleetheart). She’s worked four times since then, capped off by a sharp :46.1 blowout and gets a better draw than main rival Ready Maid. The latter was a 10-length put over winner by Craig Dollase and she’s worked nicely since. Room to improve for sure. Miss Lola La Dare doesn’t figure to beat the top two, but she’s been close a few times already at this level and needed her last in the common race won by Fleetheart. Worth using underneath in the exacta at a big price. C’s Smokin beat a 14-horse field first time out in a slow early, slow late race. Her pace and winning figure don’t compare to my top two. But what was noteworthy about her win was that the next two fillies behind her both came back to win by daylight in their next starts, as did well beaten Inaheartbeat by 7 lengths this past Thursday. So three subsequent winners exit the slow-slow race she won. So C’s Smokin may very well be better than the weak figure she earned winning her debut. Crocetta, the 7/2 third choice on the morning line, is worth playing against despite an impressive first out tally at Turf Paradise. She beat a small field that day (just six other foes) and trainer Dan McFarlane is only 1/38…repeat 1/38 with racing his stock at Santa Anita. He’s also only 4/54 (7%) using low percentage jockey Omar Figueroa, and Figueroa himself wins only at an 8% clip lifetime.

# Horse Odds
2 READY MAID 5/2
4 MISS LOLA LA DARE9/1
6 C’S SMOKIN 7/1
9 TIZ NEXT 2/1
10 CROCETTA (MLU) 6/1



9th— Exacta box 2-8-10 or PASS.

If Solis gets after AFTER MARKET early and gets him into the race (as he was in his good races back east last summer), he’s absolutely the one to beat and he’s won three races at 1 1/8 miles turf. If Solis puts a good pre-race warmup into the colt before the race to get him on his toes, that’s a positive sign. Frankel had SOUND BREEZE in training at Hollywood Park and Del Mar last year between May 19 and July 28 with 11 workouts, but a problem obviously developed because he never made it to the races. He was off almost six months until Jan. 17 and he has 11 workouts in a steady pattern leading up to this, his long-awaited comeback since Oct. 19, 2005. That’s a long layoff to overcome going 1 1/8 miles vs. this company, but he’s training like a really nice prospect. STORMIN AWAY has a versatile style and can come from off the pace or sit close up. Jockey Martin Garcia knows him well.

# Horse Odds
1 FANTASTIC SPAIN 6/1
2 AFTER MARKET 3/1
3 BOULE D’OR 6/1
6 HEROI DO BAFRA 7/1
8 SOUND BREEZE 5/1
10 STORMIN AWAY 5/1

10th— 5 RING READY & 11 SOUL WORK co-top choices; exactas 5-9, 5-11, 5-13, 11-5, 11-9, 11-13; plus exacta box 5-9-11

# Horse Odds
3 I’M IN THE MOOD 7/1
5 RING READY 9/2
9 McCLINTOCK 9/2
11 SOUL WORK 3/1
13 MILADY’S PRIDE 7/2


Big field to close out the card. RING READY drops trying to win after showing some early speed vs. better in his debut. Has worked well since. SOUL WORK was between horses dueling on the pace in his first start. The effort was better than looked and so is the Beyer fig. Both of these figure to improve second time out today. McClintock blew out very sharply for this (:34.2h) on Mar. 28 and looks set for best. He’s definitely the value horse in this field.

$2 PICK THREE (1-2-3)

2-7-11 w/ 2-3-6 w/ 1-3-9;
2-11 w/ 2-3-6 w/ 1

$2 PICK THREE (5-6-7)

2-12 w/ 5-6-8-10 w/ 3-6-11-12

$2 PICK THREE (6-7-8)

5-6-8-10 w/ 3-6-11-12 w/ 2-6-9;
5-6-8-10 w/ 3-6-11-12 w/ 9

$2 PICK FOUR (7-8-9-10)

$1 3-6-11-12 w/ 9 w/ 2-3-6-8-10 w/ 5-9-11;
$1 3-6-11-12 w/ 2-6-9 w/ 2-8-10 w/ 5-9-11

[Greyfox]

[QUOTE=banacek]. This is the kind of stuff the irritates people on this site. Tell us how you would bet them before the races and then give a recap after the races and we'd have something to work with.QUOTE]

I don't quite agree with banacek on this. You've given us the picks that you think have a shot. Even if you told me how you were betting them, I probably wouldn't play them the same way.
I'd look at your picks. I'd compare them with my picks. Your picks might cause me to consider whether or not I've left something out in my first analysis.

The problem that you would have posting on how to play them is complex.
For instance, you might get to the track and see that one of your picks that you were going to bet to win, is now getting pounded down on the tote board.
Do you still play win? Or do you look for a pick 3? The tote will dictate that.
I'm happy that you're giving your contenders and I think that's all I'd really want.

[banacek]

Thanks for the very detailed analysis, Bob. One question, your fair betting lines often add up to more than 100%. And that's only using the contenders you listed.


Thanks

[Greyfox]

win, lose or draw, here's my analysis for today



Thanks for the info Bob. I suspect that your service though charges a pretty good daily fee for that kind of extensive work up.

[banacek]

[QUOTE=banacek]. This is the kind of stuff the irritates people on this site. Tell us how you would bet them before the races and then give a recap after the races and we'd have something to work with.QUOTE]

I don't quite agree with banacek on this. You've given us the picks that you think have a shot. Even if you told me how you were betting them, I probably wouldn't play them the same way.


You have a point, greyfox. But Turfday just listed his picks with odds lines and very specific plays to make. It is hard for me (at least) to judge when all I get is a stream of horses. I need a little more precision that that to judge. (Kind of like when the software providers say well it all depends what you do with the software). If you can show me what you would do with it and are able to profit your way, then I can see there is some value in what is being offered.

[Greyfox]

[QUOTE=Greyfox]

If you can show me what you would do with it and are able to profit your way, then I can see there is some value in what is being offered.

We agree here. But I think a lot depends also on handicapping sophistication.
I suspect that Bob's service charges a pretty good fee and probably caters to horse players who either can't do their own selections or don't have time to do their analyses.

In my instance, I have time to do a reasonably thorough analysis of the races that I will be playing. I wouldn't need a service like Bob's, but can appreciate that others would subscribe to it. That's why I don't mind looking at Cashinin's
picks as a double check of my own.

[Sabe]

profit picks

I checked that out and its a bunch of results with a donation box. Thats really profit pics. Those are their results. I make a donation periodically, give them my e-mail address and they send me the picks the night before the races.

[Turfday]

Even though my contenders sometimes add up to more than 100%, the track's line adds up to more than 120% to take into account the "take."
Mine is usually around 115% for the entire field and, of course, I recommend looking for big overlays on my contenders even if I don't actually select them (as noted in my analysis).

As far as cost, it's $20 per day but that also INCLUDES Jeff Siegel's full analysis as well. $20 for both. Jeff, as many know, is my longtime partner and a TV analyst for HRTV.

[banacek]

Even though my contenders sometimes add up to more than 100%, the track's line adds up to more than 120% to take into account the "take."
Mine is usually around 115% for the entire field and, of course, I recommend looking for big overlays on my contenders even if I don't actually select them (as noted in my analysis).




Well for me, I'd have to adjust it to a 100% to allow comparison it the odds to see if I have a true overlay.

And you did say that "I recommend looking for big overlays on my contenders ", so if that was a big enough difference, it could work.

[Greyfox]

Thanks Bob Selvin . You had the courage to post here.
And you gave Imcashinin an idea of your site.
Oops. Not your best day I'm sure.
But you had the late win 3 on less numbers than me so I give you credit there.
(I also had it on a 2 x 6 X 3 ticket but spent more.) I was glad that your last race picks confirmed mine.

[Greyfox]

Not a particularly good day for you either Imcashinin with these results:
http://imcashinin.com/sitemap.aspx

Gotta give you and Bob "E" for effort though.

[Turfday]

(3rd) I definitely missed with Best Play Tom Rickey, but used overlay winner Buc the Spartan (5/1 on my fair odds line) in my exacta with him top and bottom, who paid a fat $28.20;

(5th) Co-top Unusual Spring paid $4.40, but I ran 1-3 in the exacta;

(8th) With a key scratch, Best Play Tiz Next was even more obvious and paid $4.20, the 9-6 best play exacta to a horse I really pushed (C’s Smokin) paid $18.40;

(9th) 10-8 exacta paid $78.60;

(10th) Co-top Soul Work paid $11.20;

Pick Four (7-8-9-10) 12-9-10-11 hit on both tickets returned $975.20 ($168 investment).

[ImCashinIn]

Lord knows ya can't win em' all. Heck its 4 legged animals were trying to make money on. And no, I didn't hit the 1st 5 on Thursday, I missed the 1st, 3rd and 5th races. But did have the rest. I may in some cases have half the field picked, but try looking at it this way. 6 horse field, I pick 3, easier to choose a winner from 3 than it is 6. 10 horse field, I pick 5, again, easier to pick a winner from 5 horses than it is from 10. Agree?
And my selections are in post position order, not in order of my preference. And for those who asked for comments, i've added them as well. Not trying to irratate anyone, just trying to help out.

ROCK:bang:

[orrug2k]

I found a spot play where the fav only wins 18% of the time instead of the 33% or what ever it is. Give me some ideas to exploit this. The fav only won 1 of 20 of such races yesterday. Any dutching ideas out there. You guys are the experts so where can I make money with it. I can get 5 to 12 % rebate on win bets to help out. Thanks.

[Greyfox]

I found a spot play where the fav only wins 18% of the time instead of the 33% or what ever it is. Give me some ideas to exploit this. The fav only won 1 of 20 of such races yesterday. Any dutching ideas out there. You guys are the experts so where can I make money with it. I can get 5 to 12 % rebate on win bets to help out. Thanks.


orrug2k I'll leave your question for the pros.
But my guess is that you have couched your spot play so well that I don't think that even the best pro could answer it.
You haven't mentioned type of race, purse, distance, surface, how many horses and so on.
How are the "experts" supposed to help you. If it's a race where the favorite is coming in so low, that suggests that it's probably a "chaos race" where none of the stock are running to par. Good luck if you think that you can sort it out. In the meanwhile, I don't think that too many will give you help until you give more info. Well that's my opinion anyways and I've been wrong before.

[orrug2k]

Sorry, I forget how sophisticated and indepth the handicappers are on here, and how secretive for some reason. I really wasnt couching it just didnt think much about the other factores involved. My spot was not selective at all. Totally broad to all factors and class, field size was not considered either. Basically just when the fav was not one of the top 3 selections by my computer program, then it only won 18 % of the time. My program beat the heck out of the general public. Hope im not confusing.

[Greyfox]

So if your selections are all 3-1 or higher why not bet all 3 to win?
$ 6 gets at least $ 8, if you're sure the favorite won't beat you.

[orrug2k]

I was thinking I might be able to dutch the next 3 horses and cover the 82 % of other winners. Thier odds would be higher of course. I will have to look at the percentage of winner from the next 3 horses it picks to win instead of the fav.

[orrug2k]

I guess I would have to get it to break even and keep the rebate, Sounds tough or impossible still.

[NY BRED]

speaking of E, Imcasin misspelled extremely


;) :rolleyes:

[orrug2k]

ok heres the results. My top 3 win 54% of the time at a mutual of $10.00 Is that break even. I think so or darn close

[Greyfox]

Well I could be wrong.

Betting 3 horses to win at $ 2 per bet over 100 bets = $ 600.
Winning 54 % at a mutual of $ 10 brings back = $ 540
Net gain or loss (-$ 60)

[K9Pup]

Well I could be wrong.

Betting 3 horses to win at $ 2 per bet over 100 bets = $ 600.
Winning 54 % at a mutual of $ 10 brings back = $ 540
Net gain or loss (-$ 60)

And IF he can get 10% rebates then he WOULD break even. Lots of work for nothing though.

[highnote]

I found a spot play where the fav only wins 18% of the time instead of the 33% or what ever it is. Give me some ideas to exploit this. The fav only won 1 of 20 of such races yesterday. Any dutching ideas out there. You guys are the experts so where can I make money with it. I can get 5 to 12 % rebate on win bets to help out. Thanks.


Lay the favorite on a betting exchange at the appropriate price.

[orrug2k]

Idont think they are open to USA anymore.

[highnote]

Idont think they are open to USA anymore.

What about betehorsex?

[orrug2k]

out of business

[highnote]

My mistake.

Try http://www.ehorsex.com

[orrug2k]

I heard one guy boast that he gets 84% winners from his top 4 picks with that program. I wonder if it could be applied to the races which the fav wins only 18% of the time

[K9Pup]

I heard one guy boast that he gets 84% winners from his top 4 picks with that program. I wonder if it could be applied to the races which the fav wins only 18% of the time

Buy the software and find out!!

More than likely that ONE of his top 4 IS the favorite. But if you can pick races where that favorite only wins 18% then drop the favorite in those and play his other 3.

[orrug2k]

thanks sweet, now im picking losers for profit.

[orrug2k]

Im going to track the bet exchange for a while on these loser horses. I would have won 19 of 20 lays yesterday.

[highnote]

thanks sweet, now im picking losers for profit.


Better than picking winners for a loss. :ThmbUp:

[orrug2k]

I checked out the ehorsex site and found it to give great odds on usa runners. One paid 40 bucks on there and 20 at mnt last night. Seemed to have alot of overlays on midpriced horses.