Isolation Handicapping

[Handiman]

Although I'm not programming at present, I am doing what I call conceptual research. I have a theory that I'm developing, I call Isolation Handicapping. It may not workout or maynot be new, but it was born from what I have named the Barry Bonds syndrome.

The approach, as it relates to baseball, is to look at today's game, and based on different factors, how will Barry matchup to Barry as a hitter. How good is he against today's pitcher? How does he do at today's park? The configuration of the right field fence. Expected batting average for the year, in relation to present average.
Anyway, the point is, regardless of how his teammates do today, what will Barry's performance most likely be today. Based on the answers, you should be able to tell if he is right for today's game. Or is he facing an uphill battle and predestined to do poorly today.

This all germinated from an argument a buddy and I had, about fantasy baseball drafting and replacing players. The point was that even on a bad day, Barry Bonds would more than likely be a better hitter than the average player on a good day. It has to do with inherent ability. But taken to the point of matching a hitter against himself on any given day. While we know why Barry would be playing today, in the arena of horseracing, why is a horse running today? Should he be running today? If he were matched up against himself, how would he be expected to do?

I'm hoping that with what I have learned here on this board, and from all the reading I have done, that some method will present it's self to me. The idea being, to match each horse against it's self, and ultimately place them where they should finish in the upcoming race.

That's the hope anyway. Any input would be welcome.


Handiman

[keilan]

Hmmm……… interesting post.

You make some analogies about Bonds, how does he match-up against the pitcher, how does he hit in today’s ballpark, and configuration to right field etc.

Take what you have asked about Bonds and substitute the following.

How does he match-up against the pitcher – how does he match-up against today’s pace?

How does he hit in today’s ballpark – does today’s weight of the track enhance or detract from his ability to win.

Configuration to right field – does today’s post position (outside post) allow him time to clear the field before the 1st turn or based on his running style and how far the rails are moved out from the hedge (turf).

Why is a horse running today? Should he be running today? – will the horse regress or moved forward based upon what we know. (new barn, race pattern, days between races etc).

Is Barry using --- how much will the addition of lasix assist.

I think all the above are pertinent questions for my style of handicapping at least. Good luck in your pursuit.

[Overlay]

Aren't you essentially asking, "Where is the horse in its form cycle, how close to a maximum effort is it likely to exhibit today, and will that level of effort be sufficient to overcome the competition it's facing?" (And, of course, that assumes that the horse's connections will not put any intentional curbs on potential peak performance for conditioning purposes. I think that may be where your analogy to Barry Bonds breaks down. It seems to me that if Barry is playing at all, he will be putting forth the highest level of effort that he is capable of at that time. The same may not be true of a horse.)

[Handiman]

I agree about Bonds. That was the impetus that lead me forward on this quest. I realize that the Bonds analogy is relative to a point. As for attempt to put my finger on the form cycle, that is correct to a certain degree. But it's even a bit deeper I believe.

It seems that most handicapping is done in relation to all the other horses in the race. I'm trying to find the inherent ability of the individual horse. It's akin to predicting how a horse would do today, if races were decided by time trials. I know it's not that cut and dried. But it's a first step. I'm not a trip handicapper. But by attempting to look at the individual horse, I'm hoping to get to know the horse in a small span of time. Part of this will be assessing how a horse reacts at the beginning of a race. That is a concept I got from The Hat, that I hope to develop even further. It will in some way offer up a look into the herd hierarchy that may develop at the beginning of a race.

Again this may work or be a butt load of wasted time. We shall see.


Handi

[keilan]

I'm trying to find the inherent ability of the individual horse. It's akin to predicting how a horse would do today, Handi


By answering these types of questions and others you’re discovering the ability of each horse. Asking questions is great but the player must be able to unearth the correct answers or we’ve just wasted our time. If I tell you the track is playing slow today you had better be able to adjust to that information or you’re gonna have a tough day. If players understand how, why and when different types of horses win then maybe the answer of a horse’s potential (class) is easier to answer.

Quick example – both horses had the same trip and the track was exactly the same for both horses.

Horse “A” runs 6f and gets a speed rating of 80 with an energy number of 53.36%

Horse “B” runs 6f and gets a speed rating of 80 with an energy number of 52.15%

Obviously Horse “B” based only on the above information appears to be the classer animal. If anyone wants to determine the ability/potential of a horse there are 3 questions that need answered 1) how fast is the horse, 2) how far can he carry his speed, and 3) how big is his heart, will the horse compete. The answers to those 3 questions are imperative to handicapping.

I use “energy” to answer some of my questions, others use something else but ultimately everyone has to arrive at the end of the process understanding the limitations and strength/ability of each horse in the race.

When I joined PA years ago very few if any talked about “energy dispersion” now I read posts regularly here by other members who mention this variable.

[bobphilo]

I agree about Bonds. That was the impetus that lead me forward on this quest. I realize that the Bonds analogy is relative to a point. As for attempt to put my finger on the form cycle, that is correct to a certain degree. But it's even a bit deeper I believe.

It seems that most handicapping is done in relation to all the other horses in the race. I'm trying to find the inherent ability of the individual horse. It's akin to predicting how a horse would do today, if races were decided by time trials. I know it's not that cut and dried. But it's a first step. I'm not a trip handicapper. But by attempting to look at the individual horse, I'm hoping to get to know the horse in a small span of time. Part of this will be assessing how a horse reacts at the beginning of a race. That is a concept I got from The Hat, that I hope to develop even further. It will in some way offer up a look into the herd hierarchy that may develop at the beginning of a race.

Again this may work or be a butt load of wasted time. We shall see.


Handi

True, you have to first predict a horse's performance on race day based on where he is in his form cycle and how todays conditions will affect his performance. but you still must do this for the other contenders and then compare them with each other. One also has to consider how the presence of other horses in the field will affect another horse's performance. Early speed types and closers will be affected differently by the presence of other speed horses in the race.
Handicapping consists in not just predicting whether a horse will do well, but in taking this to the final step of predicting which will do best in light of who they are facing that day.

Bob

[badcompany]

A good friend of mine worked as an exercise boy for a well known New York trainer. My friend told me about times that he worked horses in the morning that he swore would run great that day. Sometimes, he was right, but other times those same horses would lay an egg.

The bottom line is that you can write as many programs as you want, but, in the end, it still comes down to an educated guess.

[forecast]

You may want to look at (or revisit) an old Sartin manual call "The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity". In it, Dr. Sartin details the history of several horses race by race, noting their energy distribution, early, late and average pace characteristics, etc., and relates that to the horse's form cycle, class level, etc. By doing this, he said he was able to pinpoint the circumstances where a horse would do well. He called this the "Stable Method" and recommended the user keep a file of horses and look for them when they are spotted properly, according to the user's research.

With the tools available today - excellent software detailing innumerable characteristics from horse's previous races, stable mail to notify you when one of "your" horses are entered - this seems like a very do-able approach to winning.

It's almost like a spot play, only instead of detailing the play and looking for horses with the right characteristics, you would be detailing the horse and looking for the races with the right characteristics.

Very interesting idea, Handiman. Good luck with your approach.

[badcompany]

The approach, as it relates to baseball, is to look at today's game, and based on different factors, how will Barry matchup to Barry as a hitter. How good is he against today's pitcher? How does he do at today's park? The configuration of the right field fence. Expected batting average for the year, in relation to present average.
Anyway, the point is, regardless of how his teammates do today, what will Barry's performance most likely be today. Based on the answers, you should be able to tell if he is right for today's game. Or is he facing an uphill battle and predestined to do poorly today.

Handiman

Just wondering how you factor in things that you can't know, for example:

Did he get a good night's sleep?

Does he have a cold?

Is an old injury flaring up?

[Wiley]

Just wondering how you factor in things that you can't know, for example:

Did he get a good night's sleep?

Does he have a cold?

Is an old injury flaring up?
Watch the horses before for the race in the paddock and warm ups and learn to recognize both good and bad physical signs. There are no certainties for handicappers as to sleep deprivation, illness, injury detection, etc. - unless they are intimately involved with the horse - but you can help decrease the variability of the these factors by watching and taking notes on the horses pre-race appearance and behavior from race to race. IMHO.

[Greyfox]

Just wondering how you factor in things that you can't know, for example:

Did he get a good night's sleep?

Does he have a cold?

Is an old injury flaring up?

Good points and add to them Why does the trainer have this runner in this race today? i.e. How serious is the intent?

[badcompany]

Watch the horses before for the race in the paddock and warm ups and learn to recognize both good and bad physical signs. There are no certainties for handicappers as to sleep deprivation, illness, injury detection, etc. - unless they are intimately involved with the horse - but you can help decrease the variability of the these factors by watching and taking notes on the horses pre-race appearance and behavior from race to race. IMHO.

That could apply at the track. At this point, the overwhelming majority of people who bet on horses do so off track.

[jotb]

Hello all:

I think I heard some good things in this thread but I was surprised not to hear that discovering a horse ability would have to do with how much time inbetween races. A horse may be capable to achieve a certain energy number or speed rating but can the horse do this within a specific amount of time between races. Many horses are brought back to soon to the races because of many factors and one that comes to mind is the owner. The owner wants to run as many times as possible within a months time to cover overhead. I would think time between races is a good way to eliminate a horse just because of that. The horse has the ability but can he or she live up to it in todays race. Just my thought on this.

Best regards,
Joe

[Cratos]

Although I'm not programming at present, I am doing what I call conceptual research. I have a theory that I'm developing, I call Isolation Handicapping. It may not workout or maynot be new, but it was born from what I have named the Barry Bonds syndrome.

The approach, as it relates to baseball, is to look at today's game, and based on different factors, how will Barry matchup to Barry as a hitter. How good is he against today's pitcher? How does he do at today's park? The configuration of the right field fence. Expected batting average for the year, in relation to present average.
Anyway, the point is, regardless of how his teammates do today, what will Barry's performance most likely be today. Based on the answers, you should be able to tell if he is right for today's game. Or is he facing an uphill battle and predestined to do poorly today.

This all germinated from an argument a buddy and I had, about fantasy baseball drafting and replacing players. The point was that even on a bad day, Barry Bonds would more than likely be a better hitter than the average player on a good day. It has to do with inherent ability. But taken to the point of matching a hitter against himself on any given day. While we know why Barry would be playing today, in the arena of horseracing, why is a horse running today? Should he be running today? If he were matched up against himself, how would he be expected to do?

I'm hoping that with what I have learned here on this board, and from all the reading I have done, that some method will present it's self to me. The idea being, to match each horse against it's self, and ultimately place them where they should finish in the upcoming race.

That's the hope anyway. Any input would be welcome.


Handiman

A good post, but what you have just described in your post is traditional "Class" handicapping and many of us have been it doing for years.

Good luck with your programming because you are headed in the right direction.

[Wiley]

That could apply at the track. At this point, the overwhelming majority of people who bet on horses do so off track.
I think you can still do it remote to a degree with a good track feed. Granted you're right it's much easier and preferred to observe them at the track and some tracks are poor at providing pre race views. Went to Saratoga last summer for a week after playing many years online/OTB and I'd forgotten how much better it is live, but I think you can still identify many signs online.

[keilan]

Hello all:

I think I heard some good things in this thread but I was surprised not to hear that discovering a horse ability would have to do with how much time inbetween races. A horse may be capable to achieve a certain energy number or speed rating but can the horse do this within a specific amount of time between races. Many horses are brought back to soon to the races because of many factors and one that comes to mind is the owner. The owner wants to run as many times as possible within a months time to cover overhead. I would think time between races is a good way to eliminate a horse just because of that. The horse has the ability but can he or she live up to it in todays race. Just my thought on this.

Best regards,
Joe


Why is a horse running today? Should he be running today? – will the horse regress or moved forward based upon what we know. (new barn, race pattern, days between races etc).

Joe I see you're another guy who doesn't read my posts ;)

[jotb]

Joe I see you're another guy who doesn't read my posts ;)

Hello Keilan:

I'm sorry I missed that. I do read the posts through but I must admit I missed that. My error!!

Best regards,
Joe

[keilan]

Having some fun with ya, long time since we've talked. :)

cheers

[Handiman]

Would you two like a room? :lol: I really appreciate everyone's comments. It's true, that search for inherent class is part of it, along side determining form cycle. Trainer intent is also a cog in the wheel that must be determined.

The quest in toto, is to determine not only where the horse is in form cycle, but the limits of the horses ability spread throughout his pp's. Each horse has a limited amount of energy, and a limited ability to run a certain speed. Regardless of the conditions, to expect a horse to run faster than he is physically capable is madness.

One of the big questions as I see it, is WHY is the horse entered today? Is it based on horses attributes, or trainer desires and beliefs, or owner's desires...or a combination of all three. The answer is different for each horse. But bottom line, if the owner and trainer are asking a horse to do something it is not capable of, disaster looms.

Like I said, this may turn out to be a major waste of time, but that is what I have an abundance of...time.

Handi

[thelyingthief]

i certainly feel isolated when and by handicapping.