Robert Fischer
03-28-2007, 05:21 PM
quality ratings for 5f turf Gulfstream 2007meet
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http://www.internetfiles.org/download.php?id=OFw2w3ImxV7FAgBXrnXd
I have been doing some work on developing some ideas for a new variation of pace figures.
The theory is that the pace of the quality horses is often important in evaluting the pace and the race shape. The pace of those horses that pose a winning threat (a winning probability) = Pace Quality(pQ).
The goal was to create a tool that measures this factor in a race.
There are many possible applications of pQ. You may see race where a highly unlikely longshot set impossible fractions through the begining stages while the quality horses are kept well in hand for a late run. The fractional times and pace figures for such a "quick" race can be misleading in that the pace quality was more moderate.
Trips and Running Styles can factor in - as such a race was "soft" early, the horses have something for an exciting stretch run which will have many observers rating the race very high.
Even in a sprint the pQ can be a useful tool in evaluating a race.
After some efforts to use lengths per second adjustments at various time calls, I settled on an improved method of feet per second (The methods are described below).
tQ-
In doing the work on pQ I was using a lot of important race data. The pQ, and the final time converted to velocity using feet per second. I created a "total quality" (tQ) rating to refect the quality of a complete race.
tQ uses the pace quality factor, the final time velocity and a deceleration factor.
Right now my study uses 2007 meet charts for all distance GP turf races , and all Santa Anita races.
PACE QUALITY (pQ)= avg. feet per second velocity of (aprox. 70%) of the win probability at the pace call. An average Lengths-behind is calculated and then multiplied by 8 feet to determine avg. Distance run by the (aprox. 70%)win probability. That distance is subtracted from the Furlong Distance of the pace call. The difference is then divided by the fractional time in seconds.
Pace call distance is a constant as determined by race distance(ie. 5fdistance =3f pace call).
TOTAL QUALITY (tQ) = (pQ f/s* Final Time feet/second )*(finalTime f/s / pQ)
Raw final time velocity of race is multiplied by the pQ. That product is then multiplied by the quotient of finaltimeVelocity divided by pQ .
Pace X Final X Decelerationfactor
click red "FREE" box
http://www.internetfiles.org/download.php?id=OFw2w3ImxV7FAgBXrnXd
I have been doing some work on developing some ideas for a new variation of pace figures.
The theory is that the pace of the quality horses is often important in evaluting the pace and the race shape. The pace of those horses that pose a winning threat (a winning probability) = Pace Quality(pQ).
The goal was to create a tool that measures this factor in a race.
There are many possible applications of pQ. You may see race where a highly unlikely longshot set impossible fractions through the begining stages while the quality horses are kept well in hand for a late run. The fractional times and pace figures for such a "quick" race can be misleading in that the pace quality was more moderate.
Trips and Running Styles can factor in - as such a race was "soft" early, the horses have something for an exciting stretch run which will have many observers rating the race very high.
Even in a sprint the pQ can be a useful tool in evaluating a race.
After some efforts to use lengths per second adjustments at various time calls, I settled on an improved method of feet per second (The methods are described below).
tQ-
In doing the work on pQ I was using a lot of important race data. The pQ, and the final time converted to velocity using feet per second. I created a "total quality" (tQ) rating to refect the quality of a complete race.
tQ uses the pace quality factor, the final time velocity and a deceleration factor.
Right now my study uses 2007 meet charts for all distance GP turf races , and all Santa Anita races.
PACE QUALITY (pQ)= avg. feet per second velocity of (aprox. 70%) of the win probability at the pace call. An average Lengths-behind is calculated and then multiplied by 8 feet to determine avg. Distance run by the (aprox. 70%)win probability. That distance is subtracted from the Furlong Distance of the pace call. The difference is then divided by the fractional time in seconds.
Pace call distance is a constant as determined by race distance(ie. 5fdistance =3f pace call).
TOTAL QUALITY (tQ) = (pQ f/s* Final Time feet/second )*(finalTime f/s / pQ)
Raw final time velocity of race is multiplied by the pQ. That product is then multiplied by the quotient of finaltimeVelocity divided by pQ .
Pace X Final X Decelerationfactor