Recognizing Potential Chaos

[bigmack]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/chaos_theory_2_b.jpg

By far the biggest exotic scores I make come from spraying combinations into races that descry rife conditions for chaos. Most times I'll start with MCL's & MSW then move to State Breds and F&M's.

Curious if others seek out chaos and how you dial in on it.

[46zilzal]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/chaos_theory_2_b.jpg

By far the biggest exotic scores I make come from spraying combinations into races that descry rife conditions for chaos. Most times I'll start with MCL's & MSW then move to State Breds and F&M's.

Curious if others seek out chaos and how you dial in on it.
Exactly. I even named tha angle "Order within chaos" as a fan of Gleick's work.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I look at the stats and figure who and what races are the highest exacta payoffs. Race types where the exactas average the lowest are too predfictable.
For instance, looking at Brisnet's "At A Glances", exacta payoffs at Aq, SA, PHI, GP are like $50.00; payoffs at Charlestown, TB, TP are $85.00-$90.00.

[Hosshead]

The HTR Robot has a filter labeled "Chaos" to only show Chaos races.

[cj]

I wouldn't include Fillys and Mares. According to my research, they tend to run back to big efforts much more often than males.

[classhandicapper]

I find the most chaotic races to be the ones where there are a lot of "all or nothing" angles. If there are several trainer changes, layoffs, equipment changes (B's on etc...), drug changes (first time lasix) 2nd time starters, 2nd off a layoff etc.... there are a lot of horses that could move forward sharply or do nothing at all. Add those to the ones that have already shown good form and it gets pretty tough to analyze how the race is likely to be run or who is going to run well. In races like that, I often have no idea how anyone is going to run, but after the race, I often at least understand the result.

[Greyfox]

Wednesday cards at Santa Anita, most weeks.

[bigmack]

I wouldn't include Fillys and Mares. According to my research, they tend to run back to big efforts much more often than males.
In terms of race conditions what others would you recomend to be fruitful with exotic payouts? From what I recall you're predominantly a win player. Do you/have you played a "broad brush" strategy on potential chaos?

I often have no idea how anyone is going to run, but after the race, I often at least understand the result.
It's an interest twist on the mindset in a way. Lean into those races where your opionion is vague and the conditions are confounding to even the best of players. I've found myself having more interest in races where anything can happen. It costs more to be involved, but the rewards come in bunches.

[46zilzal]

I wouldn't include Fillys and Mares. According to my research, they tend to run back to big efforts much more often than males.
They also "bounce" much higher.