Nick Mordin's Dubai World Cup Analysis

[highnote]

Many thanks to Nick for allowing his Dubai World Cup column to be posted here.

I think this is going to appear in The Sporting Life Weekender edition. Keep in mind that it's written for a UK audience.

**************

THE JAPANESE TEAM LOOK STRONGEST

Have you ever wondered why the Americans call their biggest baseball tournament 'The World Series' when no foreign teams are allowed to compete? If you ask an American they invariably say something like "Hey, what do you mean no foreign teams compete? The Canadians take part and they're about as foreign as you can get!" (Americans are always making fun of Canadians and vice versa).

Maybe the same sort of thinking was behind the recent move to try and re-brand the Breeders' Cup as 'The World Thoroughbred Championships' despite the fact that only Britain, Ireland, America, France and, okay yes, Canada normally take part.

In fact there's just one race-meeting on the planet which comes close to meriting the title of 'The World Thoroughbred Championships' and that is the Dubai World Cup fixture run this Saturday. Horses from no less than thirteen different countries are due to compete.

Strangely enough, the big Dubai meeting has been a vcitim of its own success in attracting foreign runners from a punting standpoint. The incredible diversity of the runners has presented an almost insurmountable challenge to those of us wanting to make sense of the form.

This year however I've made an enormous effort to come to grips with the foreign form. I've spent the best part of a week using a battery of foreign speed rating databases that I've developed for the purpose and called on the help of several people to help me access and process the mountain of data. The result is that for the first time I feel I actually fully understand the form for this unique race-meeting. And, if I'm right, I see some very attractive bets.

The biggest overall impression I got from ploughing through the form is that the Japanese team are very strong. They have runners in every race and look set to take at least two, just as they did last year.



DUBAI WORLD CUP

INVASOR 43
PREMIUM TAP 43
DISCREET CAT 43
FORTY LICKS 42
KANDIDATE 42
VERMILION 39
STORM MAYOR 39
BULLISH LUCK 39

The first thing to decide about this race is whether Kandidate is going to be allowed a soft lead.
When nothing took him on here last time he cruised home and ran a seriously fast time. Here, his obvious early challenger Discreet Cat will surely be held up to get the trip as it's the longest he's ever tried and his stamina is questionable. So I can't entirely discount the possibility that Kandidate will score a huge upset win. But my gut feel is that his big name rivals will swamp him in the closing stages however slow they allow him to go.

I can't have Discreet Cat because smart as he is you don't win the world's most valuable race with a doubtful stayer that's had an interrupted preparation. The last seven winners of this race had a prep but he missed his.

The likely modest early pace is a concern for Premium Tap. He's by Pleasant Tap, who is probably the most stoutly bred sire in the top 100 in America. His best US form has all been off a strong early pace at nine furlongs plus, and he stayed the mile and a half well when winning Saudi Arabia's biggest race from a strong field last time.

Bullish Luck would need to run faster than he ever has to take this. That hardly seems likely as he's having his first run on dirt here as an eight year old.

The former trainer of Storm Mayor said he wouldn't be able to get him fit in time for this race.
So I'm not going to bet that his new trainer will do any better - especially seeing that the horse's three big wins have all been at 12f plus - two of them on turf.

Vermilion's best run was a fourth in the Japan Cup and a lot more is needed here.

If any horse is going to benefit from the slow early pace besides candidate it will surely be Argentine horse of the year Forty Licks. Three of his four biggest wins have been off a very slow early pace. When he won a 10f Group 2 on the dirt at La Plata Forty Licks 'walked' the first mile in 1:39.71 before blasting through the last two furlongs in 24.53. When he won the Argentine Derby the early pace was so sluggish the final time was about six seconds slower than it would have been in a truly run race.

I think Forty Licks' trainer is right to excuse his first dirt loss in eight tries to Premium Tap in Riyadh on stamina grounds. Yes he has won a couple of very slow run races at a mile and a half, but he's clearly much better over shorter trips like this.

There's no question that Invasor is a brilliant champion. As his trainer says "he always finds a way to win". But he faces a serious rival in Forty Licks. And there still remains the concern that his only lifetime loss in eleven starts was that moderate fourth in the UAE Derby on this course last year. Maybe he was unfit that day, however it's also possible that he doesn't like the lightning fast surface at Nad Al Sheba.

There are many possible outcomes to this race. Maybe Discreet Cat will stay and be fit. Perhaps Premium Tap will handle the likely slow early pace. Or it could be that Kandidate will steal it from the front. But in my minds eye I see Forty Licks taking over from Kandidate with a quarter mile to run and sprinting to the line with Invasor in hot pursuit. So I say bet Forty Licks to win and take out a couple of insurance bets in case he runs second to Invasor or Kandidate does go all the way.

RECOMMENDED BETS

3 points win Forty Licks
1 point win Kandidate
Plus a 1 point straight forecast: Invasor to beat Forty Licks


DUBAI DUTY FREE

DAIWA MAJOR 42
MYSTICAL 42
POMPEII RULER 42
STORMY RIVER 42
MIESQUE'S APPROVAL 41
ADMIRE MOON 40
KAPIL 40
LAVA MAN 40
SEIHALI 40
BEST NAME 39
ENGLISH CHANNEL 39
FORMAL DECREE 39
BAD GIRL RUNS 38
IRRIDESCENCE 37
LINNGARI 37
FLASHY WINGS 36

This is a red hot race. And it's clear the Japanese are dead set on winning it as they're running the two highest rated horses in their country in Admire Moon and Daiwa Major. They're officially dead level but Daiwa Major beat Admire Moon a length and a quarter in the valuable Tenno Sho. In addition Daiwa Major has won three Group 1's while Admire Moon has lost all four Group 1 races he's contested. Besides, it seems clear that Daiwa Major is more effective over this distance than Admire Moon whose three biggest wins and last seven runs have all been over 10f plus.

Daiwa Major has won the last three times he's run 8-10f, including two Group 1's. He looks the one they all have to beat here.

The Indian Champion Mystical broke course records at a mile and a mile and three quarters in his home country and ran a humungously fast time to score over this course three weeks ago. He's won ten in a row and is clearly a world class horse.

Pompeii Ruler may very well be the best horse in Australia. He won a big 10f G1 just three weeks ago. He ran second on his racecourse debut and lost his comeback race in a sprint off a three month break. But if a couple of photo finishes had gone the other way he'd have won nine of his other ten starts.

Stormy River is a brilliant miler when things fall his way. But he's only won one of his seven Group 1 tries and his stamina for the extra furlong is questionable.

Miesque's Approval has won only one of his last 14 starts at 8.5f or more but five of his last six at shorter trips. His speed ratings are lower at longer trips than over a mile too.

Lava Man has run appallingly all four times he's run outside of his home base of California, getting beat 14 lengths plus every time. I just don't think he's up to beating this class of competition on turf either.

It basically looks like a three way choice between Daiwa Major, Mystical and Pompeii Ruler. I slightly prefer the Japanese horse to the other two but want to have savers on them;

RECOMMENDED BETS
2 points win Daiwa Major
1 point win Mystical
1 point win Pompeii Ruler



DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC

POP ROCK 41
COLLIER HILL 41
RED ROCKS 41
LAVEROCK 41
QUIJANO 40
YOUMZAIN 40
ORACLE WEST 39
HOST 39
BELLAMY CAY 38
HONEY RYDER 38
SIR PERCY 38
SUSHISAN 38
VENGEANCE OF RAIN 38
OBRIGADO 37
TAWQEET 37
BEST ALIBI 36

Watch the video of the Arima Kinen run on Christmas Eve and it's hard not to get caught up in the obvious and vocal excitement of the crowd as the Champion Deep Impact makes a huge move to surge past the field. But tear your eyes away and you'll notice a tall, long striding horse working his way through the pack to emerge second best. This is Pop Rock, an amazingly consistent and high class performer.

Pop Rock found the slow pace of Australia racing a problem when losing the Caulfield Cup over 12f in a bunch finish. But the two miles of the Melbourne Cup brought his stamina into play and he lost by a mere short. He won four races in a row of increasing class last season, beat the brilliant Daiwa Major into third when chasing home Deep Impact and went under in a photo over an inadequate 11f to the very smart Admire Moon last month. He looks to have a big chance of scoring a second successive win for Japan in this race.

Old Collier Hill must be setting some sort of a record here as he has now run in seven different countries in his last seven starts. He might just be good enough but it's hard to escape the image of him being so easily beaten by the Japanese horse Hearts Cry last year when he's facing a similar rival from Japan this time around.

Red Rocks is interesting. But the Breeders' Cup Turf that he won narrowly was hardly a vintage renewal. This is a lot tougher.

Laverock's big runs have all come when he's been fresher than he will be here. This leaves Quijano and Youmzain on my speed ratings as the other likely contenders

It's hard to dismiss Quijano as he's now won ten in a row but I think Youmzain may well be a bit better. Youmzain got unbalanced on the home turn when losing at Ascot. His only loss in five other starts at this distance or more was when he lost by half a length to Rail Link, the Arc winner.

On balance, Pop Rock looks the best bet of the meeting. But I've got to have a saver on Youmzain.

RECOMMENDED BETS

5 Points win Pop Rock
2 points win Youmzain



DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN

THOR'S ECHO 42
NATIONAL COLOUR 42
NIGHTMARE AFFAIR 41
FRIENDLY ISLAND 40
KELLYS LANDING 39
SEEKING THE BEST 39
THAJJA 39
MARCHAND D'OR 39
BISHOP COURT HILL 39
AREYOUTALKINGTOME 39
AGNES JEDI 38
HARVARD AVENUE 37
TERRIFIC CHALLENGE 37
BOUNTY QUEST 36
SALAAM DUBAI 36


The key horse in this race just has to be South Africa's Champion Sprinter and joint horse of the year National Colour. This mare has got blazing early speed and routinely runs amazing times. So anything that chases her early looks certain to be fried. That means the front-running pair Friendly Island and Bishop Court Hill are in trouble.

The big question with National Colour is 'will she last home?'. She was cut back to shorter trips after tiring late to get caught on her racecourse debut at six furlongs. She again tired late to get beat seven lengths into fifth when stepped up to six furlongs again on her first try in stakes company and once more reverted to shorter distances for her next four starts. However it does appear she's developed a bit of stamina with age as she managed to go all the way to take South Africa's two biggest six furlong sprints on her final two outings in her home country. In the last of them though, the Mercury, she looked really tired in the last furlong and struggled home on raw courage to score by a length after quickly scooting to a huge lead in the early stages.

I think it's significant that the only course record National Colour has set was over five and a half furlongs. I suspect that is her optimum distance.

National Colour proved that she handles dirt when scoring at Nad Al Sheba last month. But that was over five furlongs. Dirt is a more tiring surface than turf, so my gut feel is she's going to get caught somewhere in the last furlong. And the two most likely candidates to do the catching are Thor's Echo and Nightmare Affair who finished first and third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Thor's Echo is a stuffy horse who always needs a run to get him fit. He's never hit the first two or got within three lengths of the winner the six times he's been off for more than six weeks. However he's won four of the eight sprints he's contested with a more recent run and run big races in all his four losses. One of them was this race last year where he finished second.

Given his record, it was clearly a smart move to give Thor's Echo a prep race over this course three weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this.

Tempting as it is to go with Thor's Echo I do slightly prefer Nightmare Affair who will start at bigger odds.

If any horse is going to benefit from the searching pace set by National Colour and the fact this race is run on a straight course it is Nightmare Affair.

Nightmare Affair often gets rolling too late in his races and frequently gets forced wide or held up in traffic when trying to deliver his challenge. Around a turn he can only ever be guaranteed a clear run in a tiny field. So it looks hugely significant that he has won the last five times he's run in fields of six or less. On this straight track the field fans out across the course, leaving plenty of room for a horse like Nightmare Affair to manouver. And with National Colour doing her best to set the race up for a closer this looks a golden opportunity for Nightmare Affair to gain his revenge on Thor's Echo. I see the pair going 1-2 and have structured my bets accordingly.

RECOMMENDED BETS

2 points win Nightmare Affair
1 points win Thor's Echo
Reverse Computer Straight Forecast on the same two horses.


UAE DERBY

EU TAMBEM 41
ASIATIC BOY 41
FOLK 39
TRAFFIC GUARD 37
BARTOLA 37
RALLYING CRY 37
VICTORY TETSUNI 36
JOE LOUIS 35
DAY PASS 34
GREETINGS 34
SEAL POINT 32
ADIL 29
JACK JUNIOR 28
LIMEHOUSE 27

Front running speedball Asiatic Boy is going to be a warm favourite here. But I'm more than happy to take him on despite his three runaway wins at Nad Al Sheba.

Even Asiatic Boy's trainer expressed concerns about the horse's ability to get the nine furlongs of this race before he won over the trip last time. Okay yes he did win but he was able to get away with setting a very moderate early pace of 48.38 seconds for the first half mile. When he had to go three fifths of a second quicker to get the early lead over a mile on his previous start he backed up to run the final furlong in more than 13 seconds despite being ridden out. That's not the way a genuine stayer runs.

The second thing I dislike about Asiatic Boy is that he has now run three very fast races in a row, the fastest and most recent being just 30 days ago. He's therefore a major candidate to 'bounce'. Add in the fact that he faces more than twice as many rivals as he did last time (and is therefore most unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead) and I boot him into touch with some confidence.

If Asiatic Boy is likely to bounce then the filly Folk is near certain to do so. She has just earned the two biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old filly this early in the season. The closest to this situation I can recall was when Wince ran two huge times to take the Fred Darling and the 1000 Guineas before running unplaced in the Irish 1000 Guineas three weeks later. I'm confident something similar will happen here. But equally convinced that Folk will 'bounce back' to take the Kentucky Oaks in May as I rate her four lengths ahead of the fastest American fillies.

All this leaves Eu Tambem looking something of a slam dunk to score. After all his only loss in eight outings was by half a length to a smart older horse in a Group 2 race just five days after he turned three. (Imagine a three year old running second in the Winter Derby but push the race back to January and jack it up from a Group 3 to a Group 2).

Last time out Eu Tambem powered away from a smart field to win in seriously fast time over 10f on this course. You can argue that the cut back to 9f presents a problem. But he broke his maiden in pretty fast time a year ago over 5.5f and has won G2 races over 7.5f and a mile.

I see Eu Tamben coming home by a wide margin here and make him as good a bet as Pop Rock.

SUGGESTED BETS

5 points win Eu Tambem


GODOLPHIN MILE

FUSAICHI RICHARD 40
SPRING AT LAST 40
COURT MASTERPIECE 40
NELORE PORA 39
IMPOSSIBLE SKI 39
KILLYBEGS 39
MERLERAULT 39
MULLINS BAY 37
PAROLE BOARD 37
SINGING POET 37
DIXIE MEISTER 36
GHARIR 36
BOSTON LODGE 35
JACK SULLIVAN 35
VORTEX 35

This is a tricky race to analyse as eleven of the runners have at one time or another earned speed ratings of 39 or higher (the four I've listed plus Boston Lodge, Vortex, Mullins Bay and Jack Sullivan). However, I think the speed ratings have it right.

Japan won this race last year, and the obvious choice on form and the clock this year is Japan's Champion two year old of 2005 Fusaichi Richard. He won four in a row at two and ran second by a half length to Admire Moon, now Japan's highest rated horse, on his three year old debut. Next time out he ran second by a neck to Meisho Samson who took the Japanese 2000 Guineas on his next start. After this Fusaichi Richard disappointed, mostly over longer trips. But he bounced back to his very best two runs back when cut to seven furlongs. On that ocasion he took the very valuable Hanshin Cup from many of Japan's top milers. He may well have bounced off that big effort when running below form less than three weeks later. I say this because Fusaichi's record suggests he's best fresh. So far he has won four of the seven times that he's come into a race of nine furlongs or less off a break of more than three weeks as he does here. Two of his losses were those close seconds to a pair of Japan's top horses. The other was his first run on dirt where he only lost by a couple of lengths and ran fast enough to suggest he can handle this surface (which he's certainly bred for).

Court Masterpiece ran a clunker the only time he was asked to run on dirt in this race last year.

I could spend pages dissecting the form of the other runners. But it seems to me that the speed ratings are correct in pointing to Spring At Last as being the big danger to Fusaichi Richard. He too seems to go best fresh and has won two of the three times he's come into a race of a break longer than five weeks, with his sole loss being a fast finishing second in a Grade 1. A mile is his optimum distance too (he earned his biggest speed rating over the trip).

I suspect the form of this race will be confusing enough to ensure that both Fusaichi Richard and Spring At Last start at a fair price, so I say bet them both.

RECOMMENDED BETS

2 points win Fusaichi Richard
2 points win Spring At Last




ABOUT THE RATINGS
One point on my ratings equals a length per mile.
The Dubai, Irish, German, French and British speed ratings are those I have made myself using software that I've had developed for the purpose. The Argentine speed ratings are those produced by www.revistapalermo.com converted to my own scale. The Hong Kong speed ratings are based on the standard times and class pars to be found on the Hong Kong Jockey Club's site - http://www.hkjc.com/english/index.asp. The Japanese speed ratings are based on some rough and ready standard times I compiled plus the official Japanese handicap ratings to be found on http://japanracing.jp/. The South African speed ratiings are based on track records to be found on http://www.sahorseracing.com/racecourses.asp, the results from http://www.aro.co.za plus my experience of making speed ratings when I used to live in South Africa. The Australian speed ratings are based on track records plus the form carried on www.expertform.com. The Brazilian and Saudi ratings are based on little more than guesswork, raw times and handicap ratings. The American and Canadian speed ratings are those produced by Cary Fotias in New York converted to my own scale. You can learn more about Cary's ratings by visiting www.equiform.com.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to take this opportunity to thank Cynde Neal of the American Jockey Club Information Systems for providing me with the form for all the runners. Thanks are also due
to the Emirates Racing Association for allowing me to use the data. Mr Ozaku Keisuke of the Japan Racing Association was also very helpful in supplying the lifetime form of all the Japanese
runners. I would not have been able to make the speed ratings or access much of the data I used without the help of John Swetye who produced the mountain of software that enabled me to do this. Finally I'm grateful to Cary Fotias of www.equiform.com for allowing me to use his speed
ratings.

[highnote]

By the way, if you want to see the speed figures for each Dubai World Cup runner's past performances you can buy them off of Nick's website -- http://www.nickmordin.com. The price is a bargain at 10 bucks. I keep telling him to raise the price. Who else in the world sells speed figures for the Dubai World Cup meeting? :D :ThmbUp:

[Perlnalysis]

Far be it from me to doubt this guy's thorough analysis but I don't know how you could put PREMIUM TAP on even terms with INVASOR and DISCREET CAT. It's one thing to question DISCREET CAT'S ability to stay 10 panels, but when has he ever shown any tendency to fade late in his races?

And did he happen to watch the Breeder's Cup Classic last year? You know, the race where PREMIUM TAP got an absolutely PERFECT trip just in behind the leaders on a hot rail, while INVASOR swing about 7 wide and absolutely GOBBLED up PREMIUM TAP in the lane? I mean, c'mon. Where is he pulling these ratings from? Thin air?

[highnote]

Now that you mention it, that's the topic Nick and I discussed early this morning. He said he liked to publish his research and get feedback because that is how he gains more knowledge.

That said, I don't see where in his analysis he puts PREMIUM TAP on even terms with INVASOR. In fact, he says he would use INVASOR on top of FORTY LICKS. He doesn't even make PREMIUM TAP his pick.

You should not assume that the speed rating he awarded to a horse is the speed rating he thinks that horse will run in the World Cup. You should read his analysis and his recommended bets to understand what he is recommending.

Just because three horses earned 100 Beyer figs in their last races does not mean they are all going to run 100 Beyer's today. You have to analyze the race. Maybe two of the horses are speed balls and will finish up the track and earn 90 Beyers. And the other horse will benefit from the collapse of the fast pace and will run a 102 Beyer.

So maybe PREMIUM TAP will run a 41 MORDIN and INVASOR and FORTY LICKS will run 43 MORDIN?

By the way, I'm sure that he saw last year's BC Classic -- INVASOR was his top pick. His analysis was posted here on PA.

[Pgh. Gere]

Thanks for posting Nick's preview.

[Charlie D]

Where is he pulling these ratings from? Thin air?


Probably and as for recommended bets, just look at the bottom of this page


http://www.relayline.com/relayline/maxindex.htm

[xfile]

By the way, if you want to see the speed figures for each Dubai World Cup runner's past performances you can buy them off of Nick's website -- http://www.nickmordin.com (http://www.nickmordin.com/). The price is a bargain at 10 bucks. I keep telling him to raise the price. Who else in the world sells speed figures for the Dubai World Cup meeting? :D :ThmbUp:

I bought them for Dubai. Do you know when he will be sending them out?

[highnote]

Probably and as for recommended bets, just look at the bottom of this page

What makes you think he pulls them from thin air?

I wrote the software, according to Nick's specifications, that help him make these ratings. As far as I can tell, his methodology is sound. But I'll admit I'm biased. He and I spent every Saturday at the track for a year. I saw him win a lot of money using his speed ratings and paddock handicapping. He has lived in S. Africa, England and the United States and makes speed ratings for all those countries and more. I am quite certain he has made more speed ratings than any person living.

So you may not like his speed ratings, but I guarantee you he does not pull them from thin air.

And if you think he does, please explain why. I'd like to understand what gives you this impression.

Maybe you think you can make better speed ratings for every horse running in the Dubai World Cup?

Nick posted his picks. Let's see you post yours. :ThmbUp:

[highnote]

I bought them for Dubai. Do you know when he will be sending them out?


I just received an email that said he just finished making the final ratings. They dropped a couple of horses from the meeting and also added a couple.

I expect you'll be getting them soon.

Good luck!

[Charlie D]

I wrote the software, according to Nick's specifications, that help him make these ratings. As far as I can tell, his methodology is sound. But I'll admit I'm biased
So you may not like his speed ratings, but I guarantee you he does not pull them from thin air.

Thats fair enough, but as you state, a biased view

And if you think he does, please explain why. I'd like to understand what gives you this impression.

I, like a few others have commented on Nick Mordins analysis on another forum and don't feel the need to repeat it here

Those interesting can find all the info they need by searching his website


Maybe you think you can make better speed ratings for every horse running in the Dubai World Cup?
Nick posted his picks. Let's see you post yours.

Maybe i know i can make better figures than Nick Mordin and why would i want to give away my percieved edge to others?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sorry, I stopped reading after the 1st line when he started trashing baseball for not being Globalist enough. The US horse industry is globalist enough- we ship horsemeat all over the world.

[highnote]

Maybe i know i can make better figures than Nick Mordin and

I would NOT be surprised if you could make better speed figures -- especially if you specialize in a country or track. But it would be difficult to match what Nick does on a global basis -- not that you couldn't. But I know he and I have spent 10 years refining the software. It can still be improved. He makes the figures, tests them and then refines the system.

why would i want to give away my percieved edge to others?

Unless you were a journalist, you probably wouldn't. Nick is not betting every track in every country, so selling his figures and publishing his analysis does not affect his edge.

He's a pretty selective bettor. He only bets when he has a strong opinion -- and probably mainly at the live Saratoga meeting. He doesn't want to go to the track everyday or spend all day betting online. He's a writer and international racing journalist first and foremost. I think he finds writing more satisfying than betting. You know the old saying, "Writers write." That's what he does -- he writes about what he researches.

[highnote]

Sorry, I stopped reading after the 1st line when he started trashing baseball for not being Globalist enough. The US horse industry is globalist enough- we ship horsemeat all over the world.


There are 4 or 5 Japanese pitchers in the U.S. Major Leagues now. This internationalization of US baseball in Japan has grown the fan base there tremendously.

The NFL is trying to grow in Europe.

Like it or not, major league sports is big business and they want to expand. Internationally is where the potential for growth is.

[JPinMaryland]

Another drive by critic...You think CHarlie could at least show us the website where his analysis is posted.. :confused:

[highnote]

Here is a little update since Nick's column was published in Sporting Life -- you can only get this on PA!

"They stuck in a couple new runners and took out a couple old ones. Plus I finally accessed all the form for a couple I was short of data on.

The only horse I was unable to make complete speed ratings for was the Indian Champ Mystical. This is basically because I had no Indian yardsticks to measure him against. Even with the Saudi and Brazilian horses I could look to see how fast a horse had run at Cidade Jardim or wherever and then compare this with how fast other horses which ran at the same track had run in other countries. But with Mystical this proved impossible as he is the only Indian horse ever to run outside of India, at least in recent history. Not to worry though as he's probably run right up to his best last time out in Dubai where his speed rating makes him the joint fastest in his race, the Duty Free.

Previously Indian horses have been marooned in their own continent as they had no quarantine facilities. The owner of Mystical got so frustrated at this that he actually built his own quarantine facility at a cost of several million bucks simply to enable him to run the horse abroad. You can see why he did it becuase Mystical has won every single one of India's top races, broken track records at a mile, ten furlongs, a mile and a half and also a mile and three quarters, plus he's won ten in a row.

Mystical's owner is India's biggest and the biggest breeder too. So he can now amortize the cost of the quarantine facility against future horses he runs abroad. Mystical has already made that viable by winning two vauable races in Dubai against international competition, and the time he ran on his last start at nad Al Sheba gives hime a real shot in the Dubai Duty Free. The UK bookies have got him marked up at a totally insane 33-1. I imagine he'll be a billion to one on the US pari-mutuel. Of course he's got Japan's top horse Daiwa Major in his way and that one does look kinda scary. But at those odds you've got to have him on your tickets.

Whether you like Nick's ratings and analysis or not, you've got to admit, he is well informed.

[highnote]

Another drive by critic...You think CHarlie could at least show us the website where his analysis is posted.. :confused:

He doesn't want to reduce his perceived edge. :D

The operative word being "perceived". ;)

Just kidding Charlie. :)

[highnote]

By the way, make sure you don't miss the update to Mordin's World Cup analysis two posts back.

[Charlie D]

Another drive by critic...


So new members are ALL deemed drive by critics?


You think CHarlie could at least show us the website where his analysis is posted.. :confused:


There's a link to one forum on Horse length thread, don't know if the relevant threads will still be there though

Go do a bit of searching under empty wallet

[Charlie D]

BTW John


Some of Nick Mordins articles make interesting reading, some are total crap and anyone who reads his Weekender Column, his website on regular basis will probably state similar

[highnote]

BTW John


Some of Nick Mordins articles make interesting reading, some are total crap and anyone who reads his Weekender Column, his website on regular basis will probably state similar


That's understandle. All of Ernest Hemmingway's novels are not masterpieces, either.

I can't produce one good column per year, let alone one per week. :D

"total crap" seems a bit harsh. However, journalists have to have thick skin. Not all of their readers are going to agree with them.

I think that if you look at Mordin's overall contribution to the industry he has shared a lot of knowledge and produced a lot of new insights. Hell, he even allowed me to post his Dubai World Cup and Breeders' Cup columns here for free for PaceAdvantage members.

Most Americans thought it was impossible to make speed figures for UK flat races because they only race for a few days at a time. Nick comes along and finds a way to do it. Before Nick the best you had was Timeform ratings -- practically useless, in my opinion.

And speed figures for jump races -- forget about it. Ask a racetracker to show you how to make speed ratings for point-to-point races and they look at you like you're from another planet. Yet, Nick found a reliable way to do it using standard times and projected daily variants and wrote about it in his book "Mordin On Time".

I can think of few UK journalists who have contributed as much.

As you can tell, I'm biased. So don't take my word for it. Let the facts speak for themselves.

:)

[Charlie D]

Yer right John "total crap" is maybe a tad harsh


Timeform ratings "practically useless" is also a tad harsh, there are many in the UK who use them and have been using them successfully since Phil Bull went public, which was way before Mordin came along

I've also been critical of Timeform ratings too, but good thing is, their 2yo handicapper and Timeform's former editor will come on some threads and debate issues with you

[highnote]

Yer right John "total crap" is maybe a tad harsh


Timeform ratings "practically useless" is also a tad harsh,

fair enough


there are many in the UK who use them, some very successfully i believe

You're probably right.

I've also been critical of Timeform ratings too, but good thing is, their 2yo handicapper and Timeform's former editor will come on some threads and debate issues with you

That's good to know. Shows they at least put some effort into the making of their ratings.

[Pace Cap'n]

I've also been critical of Timeform ratings too, but good thing is, their 2yo handicapper and Timeform's former editor will come on some threads and debate issues with you

They must be good if a two-year-old can use them.

[Charlie D]

They must be good if a two-year-old can use them.


:D

[bobphilo]

Sorry, I stopped reading after the 1st line when he started trashing baseball for not being Globalist enough. The US horse industry is globalist enough- we ship horsemeat all over the world.

Oh yeah, our horse slaughterhouses are a real source of national pride. Then we have the hypocrisy to criticize other countries for eating horsemeat.


You have to admit Mordin has a point in showing the arrogance in how we name our national championships the so-called “World Series”.

It’s shame that xenophobia would keep one from making up their mind based on the value of the analysis itself without even reading it. His opening paragraph was actually the most astute part of his analysis.



Bob

[Robert Fischer]

thanks for posting this article.

Looks like he put some time into this, and it is nice to see an educated opinion about a race like this, where many of the horses have not raced in the US.

UAE derby - Asiatic Boy looked like a very good handicap division horse among 3yos in the last race vs. Day Pass. He should be tough to beat, and I would love to see that horse in the states for some big dirt races in the future.

[highnote]

Looks like he put some time into this, and it is nice to see an educated opinion about a race like this, where many of the horses have not raced in the US.

I haven't seen an analysis as in-depth as Mordin's. Has anyone else?

Whether he is right or wrong about his picks is another thing.

It is up to each bettor to decide whether or not to bet Nick's picks. Maybe a bettor can just use his article as guidance and then make up their own minds?

[bobphilo]

I posted Nick Mordin’s analysis to my racing group's message board at Yahoo to generate some of the members reactions and got this excellent analysis from one of my South African members, who is also an excellent handicapper and avid follower of international racing.

The analysis by Marc, follows with an admitted SA basis, but still intelligent stuff.



“Interesting analysis by Nick Mordin, Bob. I'm going to have a go with my own version, with the obligatory South African slant.



THE SOUTH AFRICAN TEAM LOOK UNDERATED



The American tendency to promote themselves as the entire world is an endless source of amusement, so the first part of my article is a carbon copy of Nick Mordin's. Just copy it, verbatim.

Unlike Mordin, I don't put much faith in speed ratings though, so won't go to the trouble of trying to create a universal rating. Heck, individual countries can barely create speed ratings that work at home.

Instead, I prefer to focus on class and I give the 'minor' racing jurisdictions more credit than most would.



The overall impression I get from looking through the opening betting is that the South African team are big overlays and not given much credit at all. They have runners in every race except the big one, and are contenders in all five they contest.

================================================== =========

DUBAI WORLD CUP

Although South Africa doesn't have a runner, we do have an interest. That interest lies with Kandidate because his sire, Kabool, now does stud duty in South Africa. A victory by Kandidate can only be good news for us. That said, whether Kandidate gets a soft lead or not is not the issue. With all due respect to the other runners, and whatever the eventual result, this race is all about Discreet Cat vs Invasor.

Discreet Cat missed his prep run; true. The last seven winners all had prep runs; true. My question is, how many runners in the history of the race didn't have prep runs? Without that information, the issue is meaningless. Saeed Bin Suroor and Godolphin know what it takes to win this race. Discreet Cat will be ready.

I'm not a pace handicapper. Every time I try working that way, it blows up in my face. Premium Tap is the third best horse in the race, pure and simple. Let the pace sort itself out. He saw off Forty Licks in Saudi Arabia and should do so again, despite the shorter trip, though it may be close between those two. I can't argue with the analysis of Bullish Luck, Storm Mayor and Vermilion and don't see them as threats though Storm Mayor would be an interesting contender at his peak. Kandidate deserves respect as a possibility for the show position.

Invasor is a great horse. He's not the number one ranked horse in the world for nothing. What I do take issue with is the idea that he suddenly became a better horse just because he won and remained unbeaten in the USA. I believe he was always that good. He has, of course, matured and improved as he's grown. When he last raced in Dubai and got thrashed by Discreet Cat, he was a three year old. Now he's a strong four year old and every bit a champion. The thing is, Discreet Cat was also a three year old. Not only that, Discreet Cat was a nothern hemisphere three year old and thus six months younger. Discreet Cat was expected to be superior to that field, including Invasor, and he was. That field included many very strong contenders and Discreet Cat was simply in a different league, Invasor included. The question must then be whether Discreet Cat was simply precocious and peaked sooner than his older peers. His USA form would suggest that he too, like Invasor, has simply got stronger as he's matured. He's toyed with his opposition, though granted at a generally lower level than Invasor while Invasor has been generally impressive but has scraped home too.

'Will Discreet Cat stay the 10 furlongs' is the question many are asking. He won the Derby at this track over 9 furlongs in an awesome display against classy 3 year olds, many of whom were 6 months older than him. He wasn't stopping at the finish. Of course he'll stay.

Current betting:

11/8 Invasor, 15/10 Discreet Cat, 7/1 Premium Tap, 20/1 Storm Mayor, 25/1 Forty Licks & Vermilion, 33/1 Bullish Luck & Kandidate


RECOMMENDED BETS

Win: Discreet Cat

Trifecta: Discreet Cat over Invasor, Premium Tap, Forty Licks and Kandidate.

================================================== =====
DUBAI DUTY FREE

As Mordin says, this is a red hot race. Unfortunately, he doesn't see fit to give the three South African runners, all serious contenders, even a mention. This is disappointing since he says he once lived here.

Mordin has covered the form of the big names, so I won't go into them. I will disagree with his brassing off of Lava Man though. The horse is too good for those four non-Californian runs to be simply accepted at face value. I accept that they're a bad blot on his record, but he's reportedly taking to Dubai very well and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he runs a race more like his good form than his bad. At 7/1 in the betting (third choice), there's bound to be some who see value there.



Now to the South African runners. First we have Irridescence. How quickly they forget. It was less than a year ago that she beat Ouija Board. She was favourite for this race last year before the incident in the parade ring. After her victory in Hong Kong, she had two modest efforts at Gr1 level in France, but those were with John Hammong in charge, not Mike De Kock. She returned to Mike De Kock and has had one warm up, in a Gr2 over this trip on 1 March where she finished 3rd, beaten just over a length behind Seihali while carrying a kg more. They meet at level weights this time, and she's bound to have improved on that run. Formal Decree finished between them in that race. Another factor to consider is that Marwing has elected to ride Irridescence ahead of Kapil and Bad Girl Runs. That surprised me a bit, but perhaps it's because she can be a difficult ride and he is the best option to get her to produce her best. Irridescence has a career record of 8 wins from 16 starts.



Next up is Bad Girl Runs. This filly has only been beaten twice in her 8 starts to date (her last two runs in South Africa) and has won 3 Gr1's at home. She's the one that managed to beat Ilha Da Vitoria down in Cape Town. That was largely due to a slow pace, but she managed it where none of our best males could do it. Mike De Kock has stated that Ilha Da Vitoria was better than Irridescence, so how good is Bad Girl Runs? The filly has had a trouble time since leaving our shores and only managed to squeeze in one preperation run. Almost out of desperation, the stable ran her in a 1200 metre sprint handicap. Carrying near top weight, she came from the clouds to win on the line in her first race on the tracks in more than 9 months. In case anyone questions her pedigree being from South Africa, her dam is a daughter of Sadler's Wells. Against her is that she is drawn 15, but she can run on from the back so it shouldn't be a major problem.



The third South African in the lineup is Kapil. He left South Africa as a winner of 6 from 8 and as arguably the best 3 year old in the country. He needed his Dubai debut when third in a Gr2 after more than 8 months off the track. He was just over a length behind Seihali in that race. He followed up in a stakes race with a contemptuous victory by nearly 4 lengths over Lord Admiral who was only two lengths back in their previous meeting. In addition, Kapil was giving him 2 kg's the second time run, unlike the level weights of their first encounter. Kapil hasn't run this trip before, but the way he runs the mile, the extra should suit.



Finally, there's Linngari. He's neither South African bred or raced, but I include him here because of his owner and jockey. Linngari is a really good horse. His career record is similar to that of Irridescence with 8 wins from 16 starts. He's won Gr2 races in Germany and Dubai and was 2nd in a Gr1 in France. He was an unlucky 5th at Gr1 level in Hong Kong in December when flying from behind down their short straight and won his warm-up in Dubai, the Gr2 Al Fahidi Fort, in February. Against him is the widest draw of 16 and that the trip is about the top of his range. He'll have to come from behind again, but the home straight is a bit longer than at Sha-Tin.



I'm not suggesting that any of these four should be the favourite in this field. I have the utmost respect for the field which includes super horses, the likes of the two Japanese horses, Pompeii Ruler, Lava Man, English Channel, Miesque's Approval and Mystical. I am suggesting that they have more chance than even this wide open betting suggests.



Current betting:

11/2 Admire Moon, 6/1 Daiwa Major, 7/1 Lava Man, 12/1 Stormy River & English Channel & Miesque's Approval, 14/1 Pompeii Ruler, 16/1 Irridescence & Formal Decree & Linngari, 20/1 Seihali & Kapil, 25/1 Flashy Wings, 33/1 Mystical & Bad Girl Runs, ??? Best Name

RECOMMENDED BETS
I'd say that this race is far too open for a serious bet. If you really want to back something, I'd suggest a small win bet on the horse of your choice. My own choice would be Kapil at 20/1.
=================================================
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC



This is another really strong field. We've got the BC Turf winner, Red Rocks. There's the Derby winner, Sir Percy. Also in their is the champion German horse, Quijano (10 wins from 11 starts). There's also last years World Series Champion, Vengeance Of Rain. Mordin describes the virtues of the Japanese runner, Pop Rock. It's no surprise then to see the South African runners at long odds but, again, they've got them a bit wrong.



Oracle West has repeatedly proven himself to be a solid Gr3 horse, but he hasn't managed to lift his game to Gr1 level. He's an optimistic chance at best and seeing him priced up at the longest odds here isn't really surprising. Where they've got it wrong is with Sushisan. This Australian bred son of Japanese sire Fuji Kiseki is South African raced. He finished a good second in the July (2200m) in his last start in the country, and that while still a 3 year old. After nearly 8 months, he needed his Dubai debut in February when 7tth over 1777m but he showed his ability when easily winning over 2000 metres a few weeks ago. The international bookies don't seem convinced of his ability because his two Dubai efforts have been in handicaps. They seems to have forgotten or ignored the success of runners coming out of the July when racing abroad such as Greys Inn, Trademark, and Ipi Tombe. This horse is still improving and is one to watch in the season ahead.



South Africa will also have interest in Vengeance Of Rain because of the South African jockey/trainer combination of Ferraris and Delpech.



Current betting:

5/1 Red Rocks, 6/1 Pop Rock & Sir Percy, 9/1 Youzmain, 10/1 Collier Hill, 11/1 Quijano, 12/1 Best Alibi, 14/1 Vengeance Of Rain, 16/1 Laverock, 20/1 Honey Ryder, 33/1 Bellamy Cay & Obrigado & Sushisan & Host, 40/1 Oracle West


RECOMMENDED BETS

Like the Duty Free, this race is wide open and a serious bet isn't recommended. The odds are good on everything though, so a small dabble on your fancy could be worthwhile. 33/1 on Sushisan is good enough for me.
=============================================
DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN

I agree with Mordin here that the key horse is National Colour. Most of you here will already know how fast she is. She flies out the gates, never to be seen again. He is correct in suggesting that she would be better over 1000 or 1100 metres but she is a dual Gr1 winner over 1200 metres at home. I'm more concerned about the dirt. She did carry 60 kg's (here she carries 55) to victory in her Dubai debut on dirt over 1000 metres, but she didn't look quite as impressive as she can be. She was a little slow out of the gates, unusual for her. She hadn't run for 7 months though, and I'm going to say that she's still the one to beat, considering the odds on offer. I'm looking forward to her European campaign though, especially if she happens to face Australia's Miss Andretti. That said, it's never been wise to oppose the American horses in dirt sprints and she's got to have a tough task on her hands.


South Africa also has Tiza in the lineup. He's a top sort in his own right but it's hard to see him beating National Colour. He's an unknown quantity on the Dubai dirt track but did win a minor race on the Vaal sand surface at home. He'll have to lift his game from his 3 Dubai turf starts, the best of which saw him finish 3rd in a stakes race.



Current betting:

3/1 Thor's Echo, 11/2 Nightmare Affair, 6/1 Bishop Court Hill, 7/1 Terrific Challenge, 9/1 National Colour, 10/1 Marchand D'Or & Harvard Avenue, 11/1 Kelly's Landing & Friendly Island, 13/1 Areyoutalkingtome, 33/1 Bounty Quest, 50/1 Agnes Jedi & Seeking The Best, 66/1 Salaam Dubai & Thajja, ??? Tiza

RECOMMENDED BETS

Win: National Colour

Exacta: National Colour on top and bottom with Marchand D'Or, Thor's Echo, Friendly Island, Terrific Challenge and Nightmare Affair.

===========================================
UAE DERBY

Asiatic boy is not quite the 'front running speedball' that Mordin describes. Yes, he's won his 3 Dubai races from the front but mostly because he was simply too good for the opposition and Marwing cleverly rode to his abilities, rather than those of the opposition. The supposed slow finishing split had a lot to do with being 7 lengths in front, carrying 5 kg's more than his opposition, being ridden easily with the hands, and being eased down comfortably before the line. Mike De Kock has described this horse as probably being one of the best he's ever trained, and better than Victory Moon with whom he won this race and then followed up with a 3rd in the World Cup behind Pleasantly Perfect and Medaglia D'oro. If he's anywhere near that good, this field hasn't got a hope of beating him. Unlike Mordin, I don't think he needs to lead and probably can go much faster if pressed anyway. Besides that, Mike De Kock's horses seldom 'bounce', a concept practically unheard of in South Africa.



I've mentioned the filly, Folk, in previous posts. She's been extremely impressive in her Dubai starts but we're talking about a 3 y/o filly against the colts and she's US bred, making her 6 months or so younger than Asiatic Boy. To beat him is surely too much to ask, even with the 6 kg weight advantage. Day Pass arrived here unbeaten from 2 starts in the USA and had no chance against Asiatic Boy, finishing more than 8 lengths behind. The one real danger I see is the Godolphin runner, Eu Tambem. He was very impressive in his Dubai debut and had a strong record of 6 from 7 in Brazil and Argentina. There was talk of him actually taking on the big guns in the World Cup itself which gives an idea of how highly they think of him.



Only two trainers have ever won the UAE Derby, Mike De Kock twice and Saeed bin Suroor the rest of the time. It looks likely that one them will win it again.



Current betting:

5/6 Asiatic Boy, 9/2 Eu Tambem, 6/1 Folk, 10/1 Victory Tetsuni, 12/1 Day Pass, 20/1 Jack Junior, 25/1 Rallying Cry, 33/1 Traffic Guard, 40/1 Greetings, 50/1 Bartola & Seal Point & Adil, 100/1 Joe Louis


RECOMMENDED BETS

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Eu Tambem at 9/2 but a cover bet on Asiatic Boy would be wise if you go that route. Personally I see Asiatic Boy as being hard to beat and would go for a main bet on him with a small cover on Eu Tambem, just in case.
================================================== ========
GODOLPHIN MILE

I don't agree much with Mordin's analysis here at all, other than that it looks like a tricky race. Personally, I don't think much of the form of the Japanese contender here and I think the horse to beat is the US runner, Dixie Meister. South African interest will be with Mullins Bay, a British bred son of Machiavellian who will be doing stud duty over here when his racing career is done. He was originally aimed for the World Cup but ran into some difficulties during his preperation. With his ability, he's a strong contender here. Boston Lodge is accomplished at the track in similar company and I'd suggest watching the Brazilian horse, Impossible Ski, for a longshot possibility.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Win: Dixie Meister and Mullins Bay

Exacta: Dixie Meister and Mullins Bay on top and bottom with Impossible Ski & Boston Lodge
================================================== ==


Marc”



Bob

[DanG]

That post easily measures 8 feet…or maybe 10?

Oh, that’s another thread, sorry. :)

[mudnturf]

[QUOTE=swetyejohn]Many thanks to Nick for allowing his Dubai World Cup column to be posted here.

I think this is going to appear in The Sporting Life Weekender edition. Keep in mind that it's written for a UK audience.

Swetyejohn
I just want to say "Thank You" for printing Nick Mordin's Dubai analysis. I've read a couple of Nick's books ("Betting for a Living" and "The Winning Look"), enjoyed them both, and I respect his opinion.

P.S. Are you familiar with Alan Potts?

[highnote]

The name Alan Potts rings a bell, but I can't recall where I know it from -- if I know it at all.

What's he do?

[JPinMaryland]

I did a search for "nick mordin" + charlie D and this what I come up with:

http://books.global-investor.com/books/14834.htm?ginPtrCode=00000&identifier=

Do you suppose the follow on will be "Thinking without Winning?"

[highnote]

:lol: That's funny :D And it sounds like my handicapping :(


Nick admits that the title is supposed to be "tongue in cheek". He's actually a very funny guy. If you're ever at Saratoga, maybe I can arrange for you to meet him.

Here's what Michael Dickinson had to say:

Reviews of Winning Without Thinking
'Although we are eating, breathing, and sleeping with our horses 24 hours a day, there are times when handicappers can tell us more about our horses than we know ourselves. I've great respect for them and I listen to them. Nick Mordin is one of the best analysts of horse racing I have come across. His insights about horses I train have been very helpful and his knowledge of horse racing systems is second to none.'
- Michael W. Dickinson, trainer of champions in Britain and the US

Nick helped place some of Dickinson's runners. Most notably was the Grade 1 race that Dickinson won at Hawthorne ( I don't think it was Arlington ) on the Dirt -- I think it was a Breeders' Cup prep race. Hawthorne Gold Cup maybe?
It's been so long I forget. Anyway, that was Nick's idea.

I like the description they gave for what's in the book:

Description of Winning Without Thinking
In this book you will learn:

- How to take advantage of recurring patterns in the results of horse-race

- Basic principles that govern racing results and the betting market

- Mistakes commonly made by the general betting public - and how to exploit them

- Full details of betting systems used by professional gamblers that have made them millions

- How to predict and profit from new trends

- How to use computers to increase your returns from betting

[Perlnalysis]

He's way underestimating ENGLISH CHANNEL's chances in the Duty Free. Let's review the career of this one. He showed tons of class at ages 3 and 4, always among the very best in his generation, albeit only against American Turfers. I understand they are a cut below the best in the world, usually, but ENGLISH CHANNEL has shown remarkable consistency, plus most of the time he's been running (and winning) at 11-12 panels. Recently they have cut him back a notch and he might just be most effective at the 8-10 panel range. This Duty Free (at 8.87 or whatever) might be right in his wheelhouse. He'll have that long stretch run to uncork what I think will be a fierce rally. Plus he's trained by the Devil who has been red hot this year. Look at his prep race for this thing. He went 1:44 and change at GP. I don't care what the surface is. If you are covering 9 panels in 1:44 and change you are a serious racehorse, assuming the GP timers got the clocking right (a big if).

Americans won't get a good price on this one thanks to name recognition, but you Europunters might want to give him a second glance. I'm expecting him to be right there at the line on Saturday.

[Charlie D]

The name Alan Potts rings a bell, but I can't recall where I know it from -- if I know it at all.

What's he do?


To my knowing, he's into Professional puntering , racehorse ownership, book writing and forum contributing in the UK

[Charlie D]

I did a search for "nick mordin" + charlie D and this what I come up with:


Do you suppose the follow on will be "Thinking without Winning?"


I think that may be an excellent title for one of Mordins articles/books


:lol::lol:

[Charlie D]

Mistakes commonly made by the general betting public - and how to exploit them


I like the one above John, but i'd change it slightly

"Mistakes commonly made by the so called professional figure compilers - and how to exploit them"

:D:D

[xfile]

I just received an email that said he just finished making the final ratings. They dropped a couple of horses from the meeting and also added a couple.

I expect you'll be getting them soon.

Good luck!

I got it. It seems as though his break line is a 36 rating. Do you go by this?:cool:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Oh yeah, our horse slaughterhouses are a real source of national pride. Then we have the hypocrisy to criticize other countries for eating horsemeat.


You have to admit Mordin has a point in showing the arrogance in how we name our national championships the so-called “World Series”.

It’s shame that xenophobia would keep one from making up their mind based on the value of the analysis itself without even reading it. His opening paragraph was actually the most astute part of his analysis.



Bob
____________________
WHen the World Series began the USA WAS the world of baseball- no one else has chosen to start a Global Series and invite the USA winner.

In fairness to him I went and read the 2nd paragraph- I think he is correct in that few BC entrants come from the Southern Hemisphere where many tracks are located.

[mudnturf]

The name Alan Potts rings a bell, but I can't recall where I know it from -- if I know it at all.

What's he do?

Charlie D got it right. I believe that Alan and Nick M. are also friends/acquaintances. I've been trying for years to convince Alan to join me in Saratoga one Summer, but he will not fly......anywhere! :)

[Robert Fischer]

He's way underestimating ENGLISH CHANNEL's chances in the Duty Free. Let's review the career of this one. He showed tons of class at ages 3 and 4, always among the very best in his generation, albeit only against American Turfers. I understand they are a cut below the best in the world, usually, but ENGLISH CHANNEL has shown remarkable consistency, plus most of the time he's been running (and winning) at 11-12 panels. Recently they have cut him back a notch and he might just be most effective at the 8-10 panel range. This Duty Free (at 8.87 or whatever) might be right in his wheelhouse. He'll have that long stretch run to uncork what I think will be a fierce rally. Plus he's trained by the Devil who has been red hot this year. Look at his prep race for this thing. He went 1:44 and change at GP. I don't care what the surface is. If you are covering 9 panels in 1:44 and change you are a serious racehorse, assuming the GP timers got the clocking right (a big if).

Americans won't get a good price on this one thanks to name recognition, but you Europunters might want to give him a second glance. I'm expecting him to be right there at the line on Saturday.

The race on 2/22 at Gulfstream stands out as a "freak race". I have it ranked the best of 118 turf routes this meet, and it is an anomoly compared to the other 9f turf races.

On my pace quality rating(pQ) of 27 9f turf races GP 2007, the race has a 167 (on a hundred point scale!) and on Total quality(tQ) the race is rated at 160!
His race also had a better raw tQ score (3230) than the 64 8.5 furlong turf races at GP 2007. You just don't see higher velocity over longer distance very often. The tQ of 3230 ALSO :eek: was just ahead of the best of the 27 turf Mile races which was 3177. Only the 5f turf variety had a higher raw tQ figures.


As a handicapper I like him at this distance for international racing, as I feel most imports have to add a furlong or three on american soil for maximum form. Shipping back I would guess to cut back. Not sure how Dubai turf plays, but in any case he should be well prepped.

[highnote]

I like the one above John, but i'd change it slightly

"Mistakes commonly made by the so called professional figure compilers - and how to exploit them"

:D:D


That's actually a good idea. I know one guy who at one time bought DRF to get Beyer figs and also bought Ragozin and Thorograph sheets. This way he could see what and why the public was betting.

Then he used the ratings of a different service to make his picks.

When his ratings pointed to a good horse and they were different from the other public ratings he made the bet. I assume he also bet when the other ratings were right and the odds acceptable.

I won't mention his name or the product he uses, but I'll give you a hint: He was one of the biggest NY bettors and is mentioned in Ragozin's book.

[Charlie D]

Yep John and if you take that method a step further by compiling your own ( speed, pace, form or whatever ) ratings, you should be onto a winner, if your method and judgement are sound

[Robert Fischer]

assuming the GP timers got the clocking right (a big if).



I didn't re-check the internal fractions but the video replay shows the final time to be about right.

[Tom]

By the way, if you want to see the speed figures for each Dubai World Cup runner's past performances you can buy them off of Nick's website -- http://www.nickmordin.com. The price is a bargain at 10 bucks. I keep telling him to raise the price. Who else in the world sells speed figures for the Dubai World Cup meeting? :D :ThmbUp:

Hey John, I bought the figs, but you don' t get them! The site takes you to PayPal, I paid, but got nothing from the Mordin site - any idea how to contact him? Nothing on his webstie. I feel ripped off big time! No way to contac him.
I would caution anyone to stay away from purchasing anything from Nick.:mad:

[highnote]

Tom,
See Private Message. Give me a minute or two to type it.
John

[Tom]

Thanks,John.

[highnote]

Tom,
You should be all set now!
Good luck.
John

[Tom]

Let the games begin! :jump:

[highnote]

Let the games begin! :jump:


You mean, "Let the ألعاب begin!" :lol:

[Tom]

Hey John, I bought the figs, but you don' t get them! The site takes you to PayPal, I paid, but got nothing from the Mordin site - any idea how to contact him? Nothing on his webstie. I feel ripped off big time! No way to contac him.
I would caution anyone to stay away from purchasing anything from Nick.:mad:

PLEASE NOTE......

Nick replied to an email withing 20 minutes and send me the figs.
Great service, and a big thanks to John - always a true gentleman and friend!

[highnote]

PLEASE NOTE......

Nick replied to an email withing 20 minutes and send me the figs.
Great service, and a big thanks to John - always a true gentleman and friend!


Oh stop. I'm going red. :blush:

That's kind of funny, though -- my gambling buddies at OTB gave me a handle -- "Gentleman John".

[bobphilo]

Here's my analysis for the Dubai WC races, based mainly on Beyer and Timeform ratings.

Godolphin Mile
1) Spring at Last – Speedy and game. My best bet of the day.
2) Dixie Meister
Kellybags, Boston Lodge, Blatant and Parole Board have a chance at the minor awards


U.A.E Derby
1) Asiatic Boy – Worthy favorite
2) Folk – Speedy filly will give the Boy a tough race
3) El Tamben
4) Bartola


Golden Shaheen
1) Thor’s Echo – Eclipse Award winner had useful tune-up in last and ready to roll.
2) Friendly Island – Good chance to repeat his BC sprint 2nd to Thor’s Echo.
Bishop Court Hill, Terrific Challenge and Nigthmare Affair should get in the picture. Tiza is an interesting longshot.


Sheema Classic
This one way too close to call with almost half the field good enough to win this depending on trips.
Slight edge to Red Rocks with Laverock, Sir Percy, Sushisan, Pop Rock, Quijano and Youmzain close behind. It would be nice to see the consistent mare Honey Ryder pick up a check.


Duty Free
Another close won which will likely be decided by trips.
Daiwa Major and Admire Moon head up a very strong Japanese entry and could finish 1-2. English Channel is a classy consistent horse who will show that he deserved the Turf Eclipse award over Miesque’s Approval. Could split Japanese pair or take top honors. Irridescence is returning to last year’s top form and must be considered. Lava Man, Seihali, Lingari and Kapil all look very good as well.


Dubai World Cup
Invasor or Dicreet Cat? While Discreet Cat victories have been more overwhelming, Invasor’s have been over tougher competition, which is why we have speed figures. However both Invasor and Discreet Cat share nearly identical superior figures.
Distance should not be an issue as Invasor has run his best races at 10 furlongs and the way Discreet Cat won the 9 furlong U.A.E. Derby last year indicates the distance will be no problem. We know DC may prefer the Nad Al Sheba course, where he defeated I, but the surface was probably not a factor and I has been working well over the course.
The thing that troubles me most about DC is that he missed his final prep and is coming into the race with plan B for preparation. That, and Invasor’s demonstrated determination to win makes him my choice over Discreet Cat with Premium Tap 3rd.


Overall, it seems the Japanese horses seem strongest in the turf races and Americans in the dirt. Several South African horses look good on both surfaces and the Euros, as usual on the grass, though it seems the Japanese have caught them on the turf.



Bob

[Wickel]

What a disaster!!!

[Ron]

What a disaster!!!

What's a disaster?

[46zilzal]

What's a disaster?
What if there is a Jim Dandy there? Two top guns so worried that neither get there?

[highnote]

What's a disaster?


Yeah. What disaster -- that Lava Man ran dead last as the favorite?

If there was ever a false favorite, Lava Man was it.

[Tom]

I threw Lava Man and Dicreet Cat comletely out of consideration. The only two I did all day.

[Wickel]

Luckily, I tossed Lava Man out, too. Thought Daiwa Major was a lock. Lava Man reminds me of Brother Derek--beating up on mediocre and small fields. You won't see him leaving Southern Cal again.

[highnote]

Luckily, I tossed Lava Man out, too. Thought Daiwa Major was a lock. Lava Man reminds me of Brother Derek--beating up on mediocre and small fields. You won't see him leaving Southern Cal again.

I threw LM, too. I did use Invasor (because he is the best, right Tom?). I didn't box him with Premium Tap -- fool that I am. I boxed him with Forty Licks and Kandidate.

I did manage a $1 profit on the Dubai World Cup!

Hey, I just realized -- lifetime betting at Dubai -- I'm ahead!! :ThmbUp:

[bobphilo]

I threw LM, too. I did use Invasor (because he is the best, right Tom?). I didn't box him with Premium Tap -- fool that I am. I boxed him with Forty Licks and Kandidate.

I did manage a $1 profit on the Dubai World Cup!

Hey, I just realized -- lifetime betting at Dubai -- I'm ahead!! :ThmbUp:

You beat me by a dollar. I had the Invasor - Premium Tap Exacta as a saver and that and Spring at Last were my best scores of the day.
Of course, I went against my own advice in my analysis and blew all my dirt winnings on the contentious grass races I said not to bet. :bang:

Bob

[highnote]

You beat me by a dollar. I had the Invasor - Premium Tap Exacta as a saver and that and Spring at Last were my best scores of the day.
Of course, I went against my own advice in my analysis and blew all my dirt winnings on the contentious grass races I said not to bet. :bang:

Bob


That was a tough card if I ever saw one.

I bet the Japanese horse to win in the one grass race, unfortunately, it was the wrong one. I bet Daiwa and the Moon horse won.

[JPinMaryland]

I didnt play these races, but I enjoyed reading Bobs analysis as I watched them on TV. That was nice as was Nick M's.

Funny about Lava Man he seemed obvious toss. Randy Moss before they showed the race (on tape delay, Im watching NBC) "the one thing that stands out about Lava Man is he's believed to be better on dirt."

Is that the one thing that stands out about Lava Man? I thought it was HE DOES NOT RUN OUTSIDE OF CALIFORNIA.

Duh. After the race, I think it was Bailey who noted that Nakatani said "LM hasnt lost that bad..." and Bailey says : "Wel he lost by "X" lenghts in the ...?" SOme huge number of lengths, like 45 or so...

I like both Moss and Bailey. Moss is good for spotting small things, but sometimes I think his conclusions are off the wall.

[46zilzal]

The Derby winner Asiatic Boy looked much the best

[bobphilo]

That was a tough card if I ever saw one.

I bet the Japanese horse to win in the one grass race, unfortunately, it was the wrong one. I bet Daiwa and the Moon horse won.

I had both Japanese horses in my Exacta box and threw in English Channel. After they were off I heard the announcer call Linngari's name and remembered I had liked him in my original analysis but realized I hadn't looked at the last page of the PP's, which had only Linngari's PP's, just before betting. His Timeform rating was actually beter than my Beyer equivalant for EC. He ran second to Admire Moon at something like 33-1. I haven't been able to bring myself to look at the Exacta price.
Serves me right. Not only did I bet a race I said not to - I did it carelessly.

Bob

[highnote]

I had both Japanese horses in my Exacta box and threw in English Channel. After they were off I heard the announcer call Linngari's name and remembered I had liked him in my original analysis but realized I hadn't looked at the last page of the PP's, which had only Linngari's PP's, just before betting. His Timeform rating was actually beter than my Beyer equivalant for EC. He ran second to Admire Moon at something like 33-1. I haven't been able to bring myself to look at the Exacta price.
Serves me right. Not only did I bet a race I said not to - I did it carelessly.

Bob

Bob,
Sorry about your missed opportunity.

In the investment world that's called "operational risk". Sometimes you just overlook something.

I know a little bit what you're going through.

I didn't bet Arcangue at 100-1 in the Breeders' Cup Classic because his past performance was the only one on the third page of the pps in the OTB program I was using. I had made it a point to bet every Andre Fabre horse on the BC card that day, but didn't see Arcangue. I'm still pissed about that one. :D

[bobphilo]

Bob,
Sorry about your missed opportunity.

In the investment world that's called "operational risk". Sometimes you just overlook something.

I know a little bit what you're going through.

I didn't bet Arcangue at 100-1 in the Breeders' Cup Classic because his past performance was the only one on the third page of the pps in the OTB program I was using. I had made it a point to bet every Andre Fabre horse on the BC card that day, but didn't see Arcangue. I'm still pissed about that one. :D

Yeah, we've all had our "shoulda, woulda, coulda" moments. We can take some consolation in the knowledge that we were able to spot such opportunities and can do so again in the future.

Bob

[beertapper]

The Derby winner Asiatic Boy looked much the best

yeah, any chance he will be in the kentucky derby ?

[WJ47]

I didn't bet Arcangue at 100-1 in the Breeders' Cup Classic because his past performance was the only one on the third page of the pps in the OTB program I was using. I had made it a point to bet every Andre Fabre horse on the BC card that day, but didn't see Arcangue. I'm still pissed about that one. :D

This happens to me all the time! The horse will be on the last page or in the also eligibles and I'll fail to notice him until he's won the race! :)

[cj]

This stuff about Lava Man not being able to run outside California is just silly in my opinion. What he can't do is beat the really top class horses. Does anyone think he wouldn't have beaten the same fields he beat in California if the races were run at Lone Star, or Gulfstream, or Aqueduct?

[highnote]

This stuff about Lava Man not being able to run outside California is just silly in my opinion. What he can't do is beat the really top class horses. Does anyone think he wouldn't have beaten the same fields he beat in California if the races were run at Lone Star, or Gulfstream, or Aqueduct?


I agree that he can't beat the best horses in the world. But you would think he would have at least beat somebody yesterday.

I'm not so sure he would have beaten the runners at LS, GP or AQU. But he probably would have run better than last place.

[DanG]

Thanks for the thread Swetyejohn,

Very interesting reading! :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

This stuff about Lava Man not being able to run outside California is just silly in my opinion. What he can't do is beat the really top class horses. Does anyone think he wouldn't have beaten the same fields he beat in California if the races were run at Lone Star, or Gulfstream, or Aqueduct?

I think we all know he's not the best horse in the world or even at an elite level (except for a race here or there a couple of years ago) , but yesterday convinced me that part of the problem is he can't ship or race without all his drugs. I was on the other side before yesterday.

IMO, if he had run his typcial turf race he would have been beaten a 4-5 lengths or so. He got totally destroyed and was pretty much eased late.

In the past, all his ships had an excuse.

He was vanned off in his race prior to coming to NY in 2005 after a very long and hard campaign. I've seen dozens of top horse wear down and fall apart late in the year after having been top notch all year long.

He was bad that day in NY, but they sent him overseas anyway where he got destroyed again. To me, sending him overseas at that stage was beyond stupid.

He chased a fast pace on the outside (on a GR day) against better horses in the BC in 2006 at the end of an extremely tough campaign.

I thought it was reasonable to look at all of those races and not be 100% convinced whether he was bad because of the ship, point of form cycle issues, quality of competition, or some combination of the above.

I still think that's true of all those races. But yesterday convinced me that shipping and drugs are part of the problem. He's simply not that bad. He never faced the best turfers in America, but he has won Grade 1 turf events that contained individual horses that were pretty darn good and earned figures comparable to his dirt form. He should have hung around a little with the trip he had.

[Wickel]

CJ's right on. Now only does he beat inferior competition in Cal, but the fields are alarmingly small. He's the older version of Brother Derek. Get them out of their element and their toast.

[bobphilo]

yeah, any chance he will be in the kentucky derby ?

He's being pointed to England and Europe. I think the 2000 Guineas is one of his first goals.

Bob

[bobphilo]

This stuff about Lava Man not being able to run outside California is just silly in my opinion. What he can't do is beat the really top class horses. Does anyone think he wouldn't have beaten the same fields he beat in California if the races were run at Lone Star, or Gulfstream, or Aqueduct?

What he can't do is run without Bute. That's the commom denominator in all his shipping losses. I'm not as speptical of his California wins on both surfaces, where he put up top figures in hot pace scenarios, which is the real killer in top competition.
I'd like to see him run as well in California without Bute. That will solve the drugs or shipping issue in explaing his foreign failures. Don't count on it happening, though.

Bob

[RobinFromIreland]

Asiatic Boy is a southern-hemisphere bred 3yo so, in England, he is treated as a 4yo, therefore he is inelgible for the 2000 Guineas.

He will be targeted at the Queen Anne Stakes over 1m (turf) at Royal Ascot.

I would take caution though in his form. Although his performances in Dubai have, visually, been extremely impressive, the fields he has been beaten are really quite weak (especially with the dismal showing of Godolphin/S Bin Suroor this season).

I'd prefer to see him in a tougher field first.

[classhandicapper]

CJ's right on. Now only does he beat inferior competition in Cal, but the fields are alarmingly small. He's the older version of Brother Derek. Get them out of their element and their toast.

It's generally agreed upon that he has beaten some weak fields, but some of the horses he has beaten have run much better outside of CA that he has. That suggests there is more going on than his own lack of ability relative to the very best horses.

At one point I thought it was mostly coincidence (form cycle, trip issues etc...). Now I think it is shipping/drugs in addition to those other things.

[cj]

It's generally agreed upon that he has beaten some weak fields, but some of the horses he has beaten have run much better outside of CA that he has. That suggests there is more going on than his own lack of ability relative to the very best horses.

At one point I thought it was mostly coincidence (form cycle, trip issues etc...). Now I think it is shipping/drugs in addition to those other things.

Really? Who?

These are the horses I see listed 2nd and 3rd behind him in his last 9 California wins:

Molengao, Boboman, Icy Atlantic, Go Between, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Good Reward, Super Frolic (2 times), Ace Blue, King's Drama, Red Fort, Super Strut, Cheroot, Magnum, Wilko, Who's Crying Now, and Texcess.

That is a seriously medicocre list.

[john del riccio]

What he can't do is run without Bute. That's the commom denominator in all his shipping losses. I'm not as speptical of his California wins on both surfaces, where he put up top figures in hot pace scenarios, which is the real killer in top competition.
I'd like to see him run as well in California without Bute. That will solve the drugs or shipping issue in explaing his foreign failures. Don't count on it happening, though.

Bob

Bob,

BUTE is legal in KY too on race day (Mass as well). Its a pain killer but not as strong as banamine which is legal to run on in KY also. maybe he simply doesn't feel as good so he doesn't put out his effort.

Remeber when NY didn't allow lasix ? That was a dilema until they came on board.

I think for "whatever reason", LAVA MAN doesn't fire outside of CA, its not like he is getting beat 34-5 lengths, he gets thumped.

John

[classhandicapper]

Really? Who?

These are the horses I see listed 2nd and 3rd behind him in his last 9 California wins:

Molengao, Boboman, Icy Atlantic, Go Between, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Good Reward, Super Frolic (2 times), Ace Blue, King's Drama, Red Fort, Super Strut, Cheroot, Magnum, Wilko, Who's Crying Now, and Texcess.

That is a seriously medicocre list.

I'd have to look through all the charts and PPs, but off the top of my head...

Brother Derek finished ahead of him in the BC Classic last year.

One of the horses he just beat badly won in Dubai the other day.

Super Frolic had a good win and excellent 4th in the BC in 2005 after losing to him and then lost to him some more.

It's not so much that these horses are champions. It's that they outperform him when they are outside CA. That's telling me that he's not running equally well inside and outside of CA (the figures say that also).

As I said above, he's had excuses for all his races outside of CA until this last one. This one proved to me he is not the same horse when he leaves. He had no excuse that I know of and was just terrible.

I am not saying he's as good as the best Eastern horses or anything. I believe he would have lost to Invasor, Bernardini, St Liam etc... and horses like that anyway. It's just that previously, I thought it was mostly coincidence related to form cycle etc... that accounted for his "horrible" races outside of CA.

[bobphilo]

Bob,

BUTE is legal in KY too on race day (Mass as well). Its a pain killer but not as strong as banamine which is legal to run on in KY also. maybe he simply doesn't feel as good so he doesn't put out his effort.

Remeber when NY didn't allow lasix ? That was a dilema until they came on board.

I think for "whatever reason", LAVA MAN doesn't fire outside of CA, its not like he is getting beat 34-5 lengths, he gets thumped.

John

You're right John. I'd forgotten Bute is legal in Ky. Is the allowed level lower than in Cal? Maybe it's some other stuff that O’Neill uses in Cal that the stricter surveillance on BC day or at foreign tracks would pick up.


Don’t want to accuse O’Neill without evidence, but it seems like more of a physical than mental problem. He seems to ship well and seems happy and works well afterwards. It’s not like he runs dull either, he usually races forwardly with interest and then falls apart like a horse with a physical problem. He is known to have foot problems.


We may never know for sure.


Bob

[cj]

As I said above, he's had excuses for all his races outside of CA until this last one. This one proved to me he is not the same horse when he leaves. He had no excuse that I know of and was just terrible.

M-E-D-I-C-A-T-I-O-N.

[john del riccio]

You're right John. I'd forgotten Bute is legal in Ky. Is the allowed level lower than in Cal? Maybe it's some other stuff that O’Neill uses in Cal that the stricter surveillance on BC day or at foreign tracks would pick up.


Don’t want to accuse O’Neill without evidence, but it seems like more of a physical than mental problem. He seems to ship well and seems happy and works well afterwards. It’s not like he runs dull either, he usually races forwardly with interest and then falls apart like a horse with a physical problem. He is known to have foot problems.


We may never know for sure.


Bob


Bob,

Levels of bute,lasix and clenbutorol, and whatever else vary from juristiction to juristiction; its yet another variable that we as handicappers can't really gauge. Amicor is a bleeding med that is allowed in MD but not in jersey. How do we know explicitly that a horse is a bleeder unless, in one of its races the comment reads "bled". A horse with a bleeding problem runs in MD and runs great; then ships to NJ at the same distance and class level but gets
beat badly. Was it the meds ?? or was it being off a prefered surface ? both ?
Its tough to know for sure. This is another hurdle racing needs to overcome aside from the move up trainers with their "special" meds; its the legal stuff that can come in different doses as well as the interval before raceday and or on raceday. As far as LAVA MAN goes, I'd love to see him run in a G-III going 1 1/8 ANYWHERE other than CA. No INVASOR or the like, horses that he should be competitive with; I doubt we will see that but it would certainly be interesting. He beats G-I horses in CA, he should be competitive with G-III horses outside CA.

John

[classhandicapper]

M-E-D-I-C-A-T-I-O-N.

Exactly.

If you are consistently running 109-111 Beyers in CA while beating decent horses but getting beat by 40 lengths outside of CA it's not a statement about ability. The drop off in performance is too dramatic.

When they drop off that much we are usually talking about injuries, bleeding, late season form cycle when a horse is just worn down from the campaign, a horror trip etc... Those kinds of things were very much in play in all his other races outside of CA. They were not in play this time. So you have to look for something else.

It has to be the ship or the drugs unless we find out in a few days he got injured

[classhandicapper]

Just for the record, I don't think CA racing is weak. I think there are periods of time when the horses on either coast are better for a few years. It can change. Sometimes it's just a particular crop or group (3YOs, older, turf, sprinter etc..) that are stronger or weaker. We've seen plenty of CA sprinters do fine in NY on the ship. It's somewhat random. If anything, I expect CA racing to benefit by the fact that Pletcher and a few other high level trainers are now sending some stock there in the winter. The purses out there are still way too big to see a permanent drop off in quality.

[Wickel]

It's generally agreed upon that he has beaten some weak fields, but some of the horses he has beaten have run much better outside of CA that he has. That suggests there is more going on than his own lack of ability relative to the very best horses.

At one point I thought it was mostly coincidence (form cycle, trip issues etc...). Now I think it is shipping/drugs in addition to those other things.




Class boils down to what horses (and how many) you compete against. Not only was Lava Man facing weak fields, but knocking off only four or five challengers, while another strong handicap performer like Premium Tap continues to face and most of the time beat 10- to 12-horse quality fields. While Lava Man has regressed somewhat due to shipping/drugs, I think the reality is that he's nothing more than a Southern Cal wonder.

[JPinMaryland]

This stuff about Lava Man not being able to run outside California is just silly in my opinion. What he can't do is beat the really top class horses. Does anyone think he wouldn't have beaten the same fields he beat in California if the races were run at Lone Star, or Gulfstream, or Aqueduct?


It may be silly but understand what my pt. was. I was quoting Randy Moss who said the one thing that jumps out at you is that the horse is better on dirt. That's not the ONE THING that jumps out at you.

If you look at different message boards or talk to other people, the thing that jumps out at you is he doesnt do well outside Calif. When his name is on a discussion thread or heard at the bar, the first thing that comes up is not Bute or class it's that he doesnt ship. Of course the second thing and the third thing etc. \that come up are Bute, class, etc.

Im not positing a theory about this or disagreeing with what you all have theorized. As most have pointed out it could be class, it could be drugs it could be a combination. Again talking to punters or internet people and the same theories are out there.

It was more a critique about what Moss was saying, I wonder why he was so focused on the grass/dirt issue, certainly it's not what most people say when you invoke the name of Lava Man?