Is it working?

[cj]

Has stopping betting at 0 MTP actually stopped odds changes during the race at the CDSN tracks?

CJ

[ridersup]

Had a good chance to see the early closing in action today at both Churchill and Calder. In my opinion it is working great. Very few odds line changes during the race, as I only saw 1 go down in odds at Calder. What was even more heartening is that not once did I see the odds go down after the race had ended on the walk to the picture taking. If you bet a 5/2 at the 0 minute time when betting closed thats the odds you usually ended up with.

Whats even more strange to me is that in tracking the odds from the 0 minute left mark till the time the horses were loaded in the gate, some 45 sec to over a minute, very few of the odds changed. If money bet in the drag time as previouly argued by the tracks changed the odds so dramatically, I wonder why it didn't show up from the o minute time till the time the horses left the gate.

Its a puzzelment.

[PaceAdvantage]

VERY INTERESTING observation ridersup....something that needs to be investigated further. Hey NTRA TASK FORCE, are you listening???


==PA

[sq764]

I wonder how much this negatively impacted the handle for the CDSN tracks..

[Jaguar]

ridersup,

this is part of the "let's clean up the operation" package and this particular change targets bettor's perceptions. There's nothing substantive about it, either in terms of net effects on the pools, or even in preventing computer tampering by insider's with passwords.

The goal is to convince the public that the entire operation is open and above board.

"Hey, Al, it's 4 minutes to post, I wrote down that password and put it down here, somewhere. Now I can't find it."

"Ken, hurry up, the Pinkerton's'll be here any second!"

All the best,

Jaguar

[rrbauer]

Picked this up from another board. If they keep tracking and posting there I'll keep bringing it over.

Hoosier Handle:

Total Handle Last Week(11/7 thru 9/2002) $5,362,906

Total Handle This Week(11/14 thru 16/2001) $4,389,508

Amount Different from Last Week ($973,398)


Handles at CD

Total Handle Last Year (11/14 thru 17/2001) $26,966,943

Total Handle Last Week(11/6 thru 9/2002) $26,282,369

Total Handle This Week(11/13 thru 16/2002) $24,597,287

Amount Different from Last Week ($1,685,082)

Amount Different from Last Year ($2,369,656)

[rrbauer]

ridersup wrote:
Very few odds line changes during the race, as I only saw 1 go down in odds at Calder.

Comment:
If ANY odds are changing after the race starts, then I say it's all a big waste. The whole point is to stop the odds from changing to remove the perception that betting is happening after the race starts. The first time a horse goes from 7/2 to 2-1 after the race begins and that horse wins, it will be the same old business.

[smf]

"Is it working?"..., well it doesn't really matter if it is or not. Fact is, CDSN is losing money b/c of the move. If they lose another 2mill next week, it's back to the same old - same old, and no one could blame them for doing away with the new rule of cutting off bets before posttime.

[Jeff P]

Is it working?

I did not notice any significant odds changes at the CDSN tracks today (SUN 11-17.)

However, at the non CDSN tracks odds changes seemed rampant. There was a horse today at Turf Paradise that was clearly 11-1 when the gate opened. The horse was 4th on the turn and still at 11-1. Then the horse moved up to challenge for the lead at the top of the lane. Just as the horse got the lead and began to edge away the odds changed. The horse went from 11-1 to 6-1 in a single flash. A bunch of us who were sitting in the Player's Club at Turf Paradise were incensed enough that the hostess running the room called the mutuel manager. We grilled him for several minutes.

Below are questions I asked the mutuel manager followed by his answers.

Q. Do you have any plans to adopt a policy similar to CDSN and close your pools prior to the start of each race?
A. "No. Turf Paradise has no immediate plans to close wagering prior to the start of the race similar to CDSN tracks.

Q. "Just watch the replay of your own third race. The odds on the horse changed from 11-1 to 6-1 at the exact instant it became apparent that the horse was going to be a winner. Can't you see how bad this looks?
A "We are very much aware of how bad it looks when then odds change during the running of a race. The odds that you see displayed on the video replay are put there by a different software program from the one that puts the odds on the tote board. Part of the problem is that there is a delay in getting the odds from the tote system posted to the video display. I can assure you that the odds on the toteboard were 6-1 for that horse a good 30 seconds before they became 6-1 on the video display."

Q. "Can you honestly sit there and tell me with a straight face that they aren't betting during the running of the race?
A. "Yes. Whenever late money comes in we always investigate the source. In this case, the wager was placed before the start of the race. It was made at a simulcast facility in Lewiston, Maine."

At that point I just shook my head and walked away. He had me half convinced until he mentioned Lewiston, Maine.

[GameTheory]

That's one part of the "past-posting" argument that doesn't make sense. Surely we all agree that there is a delay between the time money is bet and the time it shows up on the board. Therefore money that appears "at the instant it becomes apparent that X will win" must have been placed 60 seconds or so before that instant, even if the race had already started. The delay would apply to past-posters as well. So money appearing in the stretch drive couldn't have been bet after the first 2 furlongs in most cases. So changes happening at winner's circle time should concern people the most.

It is just because people find it so easy to believe that past posting is rampant that such a change might (possibly) be helpful. People keeping saying it only changes the "perception" of things. That's all it is supposed to change. No one said other measures won't also be neccessary.

They are liable to lose money while people adjust to the change -- we'll have to check back next week. You should be comparing the non-CDSN tracks handle as well when making comparisons. They may all be down from last year.

If they do figure out a system wherby the odds and pool totals never change after the race starts (which they haven't yet, they've just reduced the possibility), how can anyone say past posting is going on? You can't hack into the computer and give yourself winning tickets after the fact because that would change the odds. If it didn't, well then the crooks may be able to steal, but it wouldn't affect the payoffs for everyone else. In that case, there would be more payoffs then the total of the pool and that would be quickly detected. Making past-posting impossible (at least so far as it can hurt honest bettors) is not valuable? No one would like their odds absolutely locked in and guaranteed before the horses leave the gate?

The main arguments against such a change have to do with scratched horses. I would consider gate unruliness, etc. to be just another handicapping factor. If up until now, the pools were open for everyone for the first 10 seconds of the race, there would be people complaining, "How am I supposed to bet on a horse when I don't know if it is going to get a good start?" Well, you know, some people may need to adjust their methods. As long as the pools close at the same time for everyone, I don't see how you can say it is unfair. Remember, it is the other bettors you are competing against, and they're all in the same boat.

A scratch, especially of an entry, is a different story. In that case, they should just reopen the pools for another 5 minutes and allow cancellations, etc.

What do you think?

[so.cal.fan]

Jeff writes:
Q. "Can you honestly sit there and tell me with a straight face that they aren't betting during the running of the race?
A. "Yes. Whenever late money comes in we always investigate the source. In this case, the wager was placed before the start of the race. It was made at a simulcast facility in Lewiston, Maine."

At that point I just shook my head and walked away. He had me half convinced until he mentioned Lewiston, Maine.


Jeff, amazing those handicappers from Lewiston, Maine!
Same bunch who bet a maiden filly at Hollywood Park.....in gate at 7/2 .....crossed the wire an easy winner at 2/5.
Over 100K bet was made thru Lewiston......guy said it was a "mistake" uh.....yeah............
Looks like the people who can do this, are hitting your little track in Phoenix, making expenses until the heat goes down?
You know, I NEVER believed this, until recently......now, I really don't believe anything else......:mad: :mad: :mad:

[Figman]

Once again, Lewiston, Maine is the major Eastern US hub for the United Tote Company. Racing Gaming Services (RGS) handles a great amount of mone. Their handle alone dwarfs that of many racetracks! Included amonf RGS customers is one bettor that often wagers tens of thousands of dollars on a single race. Until a year and a half ago, RGS "hubbed" its money thru Birmingham, Alabama before striking a better deal with Lewiston, Maine. Even an out-of-state bet made in NY at Capital or Western OTB or at Finger Lakes Racetrack or Batavia Downs now goes thru Lewiston, Maine before getting to the intended "host" racetrack.

[rrbauer]

I believe that Lewiston, Maine is simply a "hub" and not a major simulcast facility. It would be interesting to know what simulcast facilities submit their play via the Lewiston hub.

I believe the mutuel manager at TUP hit the nail on the head vis-a-vis the showing of the odds on the TV displays during the running of the races. That seems to me to be the primary source of the perception that betting is still occurring. So long as bets are being "pooled" at remote hubs and transmitted to the host site after the race starts there will be updates to odds. And, so long as those pool updates are being shown on the same screen as the running of the race, then every loser that would normally blame the jockey, trainer, gate crew or "them", for another losing play, can now blame in on "past-posting".

As long as the bet data and processing is under the "care" of Autotote and remains on their pre-Y2K hardware/software platforms there will be screwups and chicanery associated with the bet data management processes.

Bet on it!

[ranchwest]

Why in the world would it take 30 seconds to get the odds on the current race from the tote system to the video system. That is ridiculous. It should take far less than 1 second.

[rrbauer]

Maybe they're doing "streaming video" to their TV Monitors. The guys should go outside and watch the real deal and look at the infield tote board!

:)

[JimG]

Originally posted by Jeff P
[b]Is it working?

Q. "Just watch the replay of your own third race. The odds on the horse changed from 11-1 to 6-1 at the exact instant it became apparent that the horse was going to be a winner. Can't you see how bad this looks?
]


Think about this one carefully, when is the last time you saw the odds change upward during the race...say from 8-1 to 10-1 while watching your horse win. For me, never. I have seen the reverse happen hundreds of times.

Jim

[so.cal.fan]

Look,
Until they STOP all "soft" tickets........require HARD tickets only, they are going to have people cheating.
If and when they replace the systems..........it may be okay.
Until they stop phone betting/computer betting........
I know most of you guys don't want to hear that, but you had better accept the fact that as long as phone/computer betting is in place......you are going to risk sharing any winnings you may have with cheaters.....you are sitting in on a crooked poker game.
I just heard that Hollywood Park was "hit" with yet another one of these dropdowns in the stretch Friday night.
It seems they hit a number of tracks over the weekend, and that virtually NO POOL is safe from electronic theft.
:eek: :eek: :eek:

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by rrbauer
Maybe they're doing "streaming video" to their TV Monitors. The guys should go outside and watch the real deal and look at the infield tote board!

:)

If you're streaming the video, the video and the odds are still originating from the same time element, even though both are delayed from real time, so that doesn't explain why a horse would drop in odds at the top of the stretch.

[hurrikane]

I've seen odds go up lots of times. As many as I have seen them going down.
I may not see the races you are talking about because I am usually betting more contentious races than these folks would be betting.

[Figman]

On the Nov.16th Saturday a.m. Capital OTB(Albany-Saratoga,NY area) live television program on TV-12, NYRA Senior Vice President Bill Nader was a guest of hosts Mike Veitch and Mark Cusano. Mr. Nader stated that the odds update seen on the televisions monitors at any NYRA racetrack are at least 15 seconds behind the update seen in the tote system and also displayed on the infield tote board.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by JimG
Think about this one carefully, when is the last time you saw the odds change upward during the race...say from 8-1 to 10-1 while watching your horse win. For me, never. I have seen the reverse happen hundreds of times.

Jim

This has happend for me on several occasions that I can think of. It almost never happens on short-priced winners but it has happened with $20+ horses a few times.

[Rick]

The odds went from 7-2 to 9-2 during the race on one of my winners at Philadelphia today. It happens both ways. If you're betting good horses the odds probably go down more often than they go up but they're more likely to win when they do. Except for rare exceptions, I don't think there's anything unusual going on.

[GR1@HTR]

The Solution: Fixed Odds

Unfortunately, we will never see that...

[rrbauer]

ranchwest wrote

If you're streaming the video, the video and the odds are still originating from the same time element, even though both are delayed from real time, so that doesn't explain why a horse would drop in odds at the top of the stretch.

My post was tongue-in-cheek, rw, as a way to explain how the odds-portion on the TV screen could be different from the odds on the tote board. Hence the race picture is real time, but the odds feed (superimposed overlay) is streamed. I don't know why anyone would do that, but I can see how it could be done.