Who else does dumb things like this?

[rrpic6]

This is my trifecta ticket for Mountaineer's 2nd race last nite:
1,3,10/1,3,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10/
What are the true odds of a 70-1 to come in just 3rd and no where else?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2007-03-24&race=2

[Premier Turf Club]

This is my trifecta ticket for Mountaineer's 2nd race last nite:
1,3,10/1,3,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10/
What are the true odds of a 70-1 to come in just 3rd and no where else?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2007-03-24&race=2

A lot greater than you would think.

About 7 years ago I built a Monte Carlo model to simulate the running of a horse race. I did it using Ragozin sheets and assigning probabilities to a horse running within x # of points of their effective top (the fastest they were currently capable of running). I also built distributions for ground loss (based upon running style, post position, run into the first turn, # of horses with similar running style, etc) and trouble (based upon my assessment of the jockey), adjusted for weight carried, etc.

The model would simulate 100,000 runs assigning the horse a sheet # for each trial and then flag who the winner of that trial was. It wasn't always the lowest number that won as their are often great disparities in ground, trouble, & weight so the horse with the best figure might finish 4th if he had a wide trip. The model turned out to be very accurate, especially as I got better at reading sheets and assigning probability distributions.

The one thing my handicapping buddy and I found that was very, very interesting is that often times a 50-1 shot would have nearly as much chance to finish 3rd at a 3-1 shot. One of the things that most people don't think about (I didn't until after I had run a lot of races through this model) is that a faster horse will generally win, or run 2nd if they run their #. If they don't fire their number they are likely not to hit the board at all. I'm sure I'm not articulating this as well as I could, and it probably sounds counter-intuitive but it's the truth. I'd often see the model assess the chances of two horses (in probabilities as follows)

Horse A Win 25 Place 18 Show 12
Horse B Win 2 Place 4 Show 6

Horse B has very little chance to win, but is 15-1 to finish EXACTLY 3rd while Horse A is 3-1 to win but 8-1 to finish exactly 3rd, not that different from Horse B. It's even more dramatic for 4th where the typical Horse A would be 11% and Horse B 7%.

We quickly learned to use as many as we could afford in the 3rd slot, and use ALL in 4th when playing supers.

[JPinMaryland]

Its a very interesting study, I wish you could try to explain how/why it is happening a little bit more. It might have someting to do with there beign less horses to contend with to finish 3rd rather than 1st, but I dunno...can you take another stab at it? :jump:

[Premier Turf Club]

Its a very interesting study, I wish you could try to explain how/why it is happening a little bit more. It might have someting to do with there beign less horses to contend with to finish 3rd rather than 1st, but I dunno...can you take another stab at it? :jump:

JP,

I will try.

My betting partner and I found was that in most races the effective tops (the best a horse could run at the time, not including any projected improvement which is part of the model) of most of the horses were within a few points of each other. Generally, the horses most likely to win, were the ones most likely to run a "good race" (within a pt of their effective top). We found "long shots (20-1) or more on the board fell into 4 categories

1)Horses that had the ability (or at least did one time in the recent past) to be in the mix IF they ran their best with weak (but not awful) patterns.

2) Horses that were VERY likely to run their bests but were a couple of points slow

3) Horses whose effective tops were much slower with only moderate patterns.

4) Horses that appeared to be WAY off form based on recent efforts.

Category 3&4 horses proved to be bad bets in any position. What was most interesting was the performance of the category 1&2 long shots.

It turned out to be the case was with CAT 1 horses they rarely ran their tops, but COULD get close enough even to them 10-15% of the time, and that coupled with a random bad race from the faves would put them in a position to hit the board. They rarely won because at least one or two of the better pattern favorites WOULD run an effort (if three horses are 70/30 to run "good races" the probability that NONE of them run "good races" is ~3%, .30*.30*.30). Conversely, the probability that ALL ran "good races" is only 35% .7*.7*.7) so it is more likely than not that one of those 3 will finish off the board.

It also turned out that with CAT 2 horses they had such strong patterns, even though they were a little slower, they would often get a piece because it was rare for the three faster favorites to have such strong patterns (and even if they did they probably wouldn't all run their tops).

Another factor we found to add value was the OK horse / Bad Jock factor. Many times was that weak jock would go off at 30-1+ simply because the crowd won't bet them and they will make a critical error at some point in the race (speed duel, 4W into the first T, premature move entering T2, etc) that would cost them the win but put them in top 3 or 4.

Finally, while it is not impossible for a horse to bounce, or run an off effort and still finish in the top 3, when you actually looked at the data (and I'm basing this on more than five years of using the "MODEL" (as we called it) the public vastly overrates the true probabilities.



I hope this helped explain it a little better. I have been continuously surprised by the differences in what I thought was true and what the MODEL was able to prove out. Post position and the effect of ground loss on the turf which is WAY UNDERESTIMATED by the betting public is something else that surprised me. We’ll leave that for another time.

[jotb]

This is my trifecta ticket for Mountaineer's 2nd race last nite:
1,3,10/1,3,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10/
What are the true odds of a 70-1 to come in just 3rd and no where else?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2007-03-24&race=2

Hello rrpic:

The bottom line is, you made a dumb move. If you go that far, you go all the way. Don't get me wrong I've made the same mistake in my life as well. I learn from the experience or just accept it was not meant to be. As far as, why this happens all I can say is, probably all the other choices in the race excreted their energy against the main contenders and this horse just found himself at the right place at the right time. It happens all the time with longshots like this. They save ground all the way and pick up the pieces because the others worked hard most of the race. Next time you probably won't find this 70-1 with a search warrant and he probably will be an underlay. It's just part of the game...Move on!!!!

Joe

[rrpic6]

jotb;

Probably a dumb move to leave one horse out, yet I like to do it as a thrill, sort of speaking, to see if I have "the power" to will a horse I toss to come in that slot. My buddies get a kick out of it, as it seems to happen more than you'd think. Its slowly costing me money tho, so I'd better just play ALL in the last slot to do away with the theatrics. BTW, the horse I left out yesterday, actually did not just pick up the pieces, he gained a nice stalking position around the 1st turn, moved into 3rd in the backstrech, and almost came in 2nd. He looked like most 4-1 horses I'd bet win/place on, not a 70-1 hopeless nag.

[aaron]

good point,jotb,this has been prevelent on the inner track at aqueduct this year,

[Indulto]

... The bottom line is, you made a dumb move. If you go that far, you go all the way. Don't get me wrong I've made the same mistake in my life as well. I learn from the experience or just accept it was not meant to be.

... Next time you probably won't find this 70-1 with a search warrant and he probably will be an underlay. It's just part of the game...Move on!!!!jotb,
The bottom line is, you didn't do your characteristic research in this case before weighing in. ;)

You might find it interesting to compare the already demonstrated knowledge and success at the windows of the poster you just nailed with your own.

[jotb]

jotb,
The bottom line is, you didn't do your characteristic research in this case before weighing in. ;)

You might find it interesting to compare the already demonstrated knowledge and success at the windows of the poster you just nailed with your own.


Hello Indulto:

I'm not looking to knock anyone here Indulto. It's a poor move and I believe many have done it in the past just like I have. If you have to use that many horses in the 3rd slot than you are certainly not sure and that means you go all the way. Why leave 1 out and kick yourself in the butt? It's oblivous the guy is not sure of that spot and he's praying he gets the bomb for 3rd. If the 4th horse finished 3rd (25-1) he would never had posted this thread. He would have cashed and moved on and that's what you do now when you leave 1 out but you have to learn from the experience. Forget about all these stats and why things happen. This has nothing to do with handicapping. For instance, if you feel 8 out 9 horses have a shot for 3rd then you are not handicapping anymore. You are throwing darts and hoping it comes the way you would like it. He believed anyone of these horses could hit the show spot except 1 and maybe because the horse was 70-1 he threw him out or he didn't want to go for the extra bucks. It's one or the other. The bottom line is he was not going to hit that tri because it was not meant to be. End of story.

Joe

[betovernetcapper]

I've done similar things and can empathize. If I were playing a $1 tri part wheel without the #8 it would cost $42 and with the #8 it would have been $48. If I lose $42, it's still within the range of acceptable loss. If I lose $48, that's kind of close to $50, which somehow seems different. Not rational but... :bang:

[K9Pup]

This is my trifecta ticket for Mountaineer's 2nd race last nite:
1,3,10/1,3,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10/
What are the true odds of a 70-1 to come in just 3rd and no where else?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2007-03-24&race=2

First you must remember those are the odds for the horse to WIN, not run 3rd or 4th. In general there are more horses "capable" of running 2nd than there are horses capable of winning. More can run 3rd than 2nd, etc. etc. In most races once you get down to 3rd and 4th it's a crap shoot.

I would ask you what are the true odds of the 1,3,10 ALL running in the tri. I suspect the odds of that are much less than the 8 running 3rd. So maybe you should leave them off the 3rd line instead. Then you could afford to include the 8 on bottom. Of course this is easy to say TODAY.

[boomman]

jotb;

Probably a dumb move to leave one horse out, yet I like to do it as a thrill, sort of speaking, to see if I have "the power" to will a horse I toss to come in that slot. My buddies get a kick out of it, as it seems to happen more than you'd think. Its slowly costing me money tho, so I'd better just play ALL in the last slot to do away with the theatrics. BTW, the horse I left out yesterday, actually did not just pick up the pieces, he gained a nice stalking position around the 1st turn, moved into 3rd in the backstrech, and almost came in 2nd. He looked like most 4-1 horses I'd bet win/place on, not a 70-1 hopeless nag.

rrpic: This is one of those moves where if the horse runs dead last all the way around the track (like you obviously thought he would, and there's nothing wrong with that, as you were simply wrong and that happens to everybody) you look like a genius saving the $6, but when he reaches third you look like a clown because he's the only horse you left out of the third position. The bottom line is this: when you have an opinion stick with it, and even though the argument can be made that it only cost $6 more to put the horse in, you "slotted" each horse EXACTLY where you thought they had a chance to run, and longterm it is 100% the right play to make, because when you start automatically hitting the "all" button instead of handicapping the race, that's when you REALLY get into trouble! I talk about slotting extensively in my 2nd book, and caution folks against readily hitting the all button, although I do agree with Ian of Premier Turf Club that using the all button in the 4th position (especially in dime supers and in full fields) can in many cases make fiscal sense......

[JPinMaryland]

Nice post from Premier that really had some meat in there! :jump: