Hard Spun Back From The Dead

[Stevie Belmont]

Had some doubts after his last and the excuse. He answered that with the big effort today.

He ran a solid race today. Sat off the pace and took over the top of the stretch and nothing gained period on him. He ran a great race. Strong till the end and galloped out great past the 1 1/4 mark. That I liked. They said the Bluegrass is next, making that the prep of the year.Showed me something today and I liked it.

[JPinMaryland]

What's the word on Meritocracy? he seemed to all but stop as they hit the stretch. I hope he's all right. THe jock stopped trying to urge him, but I guess he still finished 7th or so..

[the_fat_man]

What doubts? He was clearly best in the Southwest.

Twilight Meteor was the chalk. Oh Yeah

Back from the dead? Don't think so.

[Stevie Belmont]

In case you have been living under a rock. Larry Jones opted not to run in the Rebel, stating the horse does not care for the racing surface, thus the lackluster effort in the Soutwest. A lot of time when trainers use excuses, the public will sour on a horse. In this case many people jumped off the Hard Spun buggy after that race. Plenty of people thought the horse might have reached the top, and further more was not going to rate. Im sure you don't live under any rock are aware of that. To say he is back from the dead might be over the top, but he was certainly a horse many dismissed after the last effort.



What doubts? He was clearly best in the Southwest.

Twilight Meteor was the chalk. Oh Yeah

Back from the dead? Don't think so.

[the_fat_man]

In case you have been living under a rock. Larry Jones opted not to run in the Rebel, stating the horse does not care for the racing surface, thus the lackluster effort in the Soutwest. A lot of time when trainers use excuses, the public will sour on a horse. In this case many people jumped off the Hard Spun buggy after that race. Plenty of people thought the horse might have reached the top, and further more was not going to rate. Im sure you don't live under any rock are aware of that. To say he is back from the dead might be over the top, but he was certainly a horse many dismissed after the last effort.

I disagree. I suspect that quite a few people judged this horse appropriately off the Southwest.

We can conjecture any way we want as to the SW effort. In fact, on another forum, it was contended that they intentionally tried to rate the horse in the Southwest. Now, I've learned over the years that trainers basically explain races they can't otherwise explain by:

1) didn't handle the track
2) was scoped and found alot of junk

I watched the replay of the Southwest very closely and here's what I saw:

1) the race was a fraud ---Teufelsberg got loose and the track carried him.

2) the horse that got second (and second in the Rebel) basically ran when the race was over --he's nothing

3) Hard Spun, breaking outside, came away a bit tardily, then took a funky step, thus eliminating all chances to get the lead

Now, the chartman even notes that HD was taken in hand after the start (supporting the notion that they attempted to rate him)

Here's my take on it: when the horse came away awkwardly, the jock had 2 choices: gun him to get to the lead or let him run on his own and see what happens ---Pino opted for the latter.

To say that the horse was 'taken in hand' is to imply that the horse wanted to go but was restrained a bit. Nothing of the sort happened; Pino let him run on his own. So, he ran wide around the track, put in the FIRST and ONLY signficant run of the race on the turn and, given the setup of the race, backed up in the stretch. This type of move is an auto playback for me--- a wide first move on the turn against a horse that doesn't come back. The horse had no shot to win the race.

Now, the fact that he lost the race to a plug like Teufelsberg does put up a red flag: he's not that good. But who exactly was in the Lane's End?

I basically was clueless as to who to use with this horse. I wanted to use the 11 but didn't trust Kent from the outside. I also didn't think that Zito's horse could get the distance (or that Zito had corrected his problems). I also knew enough to throw out Bullara but didn't know what to do with the (other) turf horses. I did, however, know that Twilight Meteor had an ABSOLUTELY PERFECT trip against Sedgefield last time out and almost fell off my chair when he opened (and remained) the favorite. Off of what, beating Marchiavelly on the poly (an off the turfer)?

[Robert Fischer]

Hard Spun surprised me a little today.

I have to look at the charts for the whole card, but the Lanes End was quick compared to the way turfway has been running , and Hard Spun was close throughout and finished well.
He will need another good race over dirt before he wins me over as a top class horse.

Everyone was saying that Twilight Meteor has a win over this surface. Not true. Turfway's polytrack is much different than the Keeneland surface. Keeneland was very tiring and favors a late run, and Turfway is favorable to speed.
Sedgefield had much more positive factors than Meteor going into this one.

[Ron]

He paid 7.20 to win. I think if people thought he was dead he'd pay a bit more.

[Stevie Belmont]

Morning line favorite went off as the second choice.....





He paid 7.20 to win. I think if people thought he was dead he'd pay a bit more.

[the_fat_man]

Hard Spun surprised me a little today.

I have to look at the charts for the whole card, but the Lanes End was quick compared to the way turfway has been running , and Hard Spun was close throughout and finished well.
He will need another good race over dirt before he wins me over as a top class horse.

Everyone was saying that Twilight Meteor has a win over this surface. Not true. Turfway's polytrack is much different than the Keeneland surface. Keeneland was very tiring and favors a late run, and Turfway is favorable to speed.
Sedgefield had much more positive factors than Meteor going into this one.

I know you liked Sedgefield. I looked him over real close. Actually, I knew about him last week when I was looking at Delightful Kiss' races. He beat Kiss on the turf but the race set up better for him than DK. I knew Sedgfield was better than Twilight Meteor but didn't know what to do with him on the Poly. The super was hittable --- if we put our heads together.

I was going to post the raw times for the races but the formatting sucks.

I don't think HS is a top horse. The field today wasn't much.

[the_fat_man]

Morning line favorite went off as the second choice.....

I agree; he was an overlay.

[Charlie D]

I don't think HS is a top horse. The field today wasn't much.




I'd agree, a decent animal, but not a Kentucky Derby winner

[JPinMaryland]

Everyone was saying that Twilight Meteor has a win over this surface. Not true. Turfway's polytrack is much different than the Keeneland surface. Keeneland was very tiring and favors a late run, and Turfway is favorable to speed.
Sedgefield had much more positive factors than Meteor going into this one.

Shouldnt a tiring track favor front runners? Just a question, I dont know these tracks particularly well.

[john del riccio]

Hard Spun surprised me a little today.

I have to look at the charts for the whole card, but the Lanes End was quick compared to the way turfway has been running , and Hard Spun was close throughout and finished well.
He will need another good race over dirt before he wins me over as a top class horse.

Everyone was saying that Twilight Meteor has a win over this surface. Not true. Turfway's polytrack is much different than the Keeneland surface. Keeneland was very tiring and favors a late run, and Turfway is favorable to speed.
Sedgefield had much more positive factors than Meteor going into this one.

HS proved he could rate a little yesterday, he wasn't really behind horses but still, he showed a dimension he hadn't yet shown which is gpoing to help him going forward. TM was flat, I guess that KEE Polytrack race should be viewed as such, a KEE Polytrack race and thats it. I expected him to run alot better than he did and was also surprised that he opened up at 2-1; probably due to Pletcher.

The horse to watch is DOMINICAN, he really showed a turn of foot.

John

[cj]

I would say any serious handicapper would have hardly written off Hard Spun after his Southwest stakes. The racing press and trainer speak may have made it seem so, but the horse was 5-2 on a new surface.

The race was decent, nothing less, nothing more, in my opinion. It was also on a surface that isn't really dirt, just like the Blue Grass will be. I haven't seen anything from him that makes me think Derby winner.

[Robert Fischer]

After going over the charts of turfway for Lanes End Day 3/24 , the fractions were quicker throughout the day than they had been in previous days including friday.
The logical explanation is simply that the quality of horses was better. Although there were only 1 or 2 6f calls that were over 1:12.00 Saturday, While friday there were only 2 or 3 6f calls all day under 1:12.00 and 2 may have been 6.5 distances(runup distance the same?).

Hard to REALLY know if the track itself was much different from the past couple weeks or simply the quality of animal.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hard Spun won all but 1 race so far.
The way he likes to run and the way his trainer is talking about him reminds me of Funny Cide pre- Derby- But HS is facing more than NY statebreds.

[Racer98]

He's my bet. He's got good blood. That counts for something. And his races, other than the one off race, are impressive.

[classhandicapper]

fat_man,

I thought his Southwest was as good as anything he had done prior. He lost a ton of ground and made a big move 4-5W on the turn when the race was picking up. It would have taken a serious horse to win with that trip. He did well despite hanging a bit late. His effort this weekend was no shock. The only question was the surface. It had a be a bit of an extra question mark.

I still rate a few others higher at this stage though.

[JPinMaryland]

Well how do you guys rate the surface at OP? In terms of speed and/or tiring? His 3rd fraction or whatever it was where he made a move was run in 24 sec. which might be mild on some tracks but maybe difficult on this one...

I would like to see him pressed on the lead, dunno if he was in earlier races. He came home real nice here w/o being pressed, if he gets pressed though that come home time will decline.

I like him, would need a price for the derby. He could get a price given all the other standouts. I guess my conclusion is: he really could wire the field if given an uncontested lead, I just dont think that's very likely.

But how do you see that track at OP??

[Stevie Belmont]

For some reason the horse was not thrilled about it. I have not heard to many others if any knock it. Than again I dont follow that circuit all that closely.

[Wiley]

The Lanes End was a professional win with the preferred Derby winner style of stalk and pounce (ala recent winners Barbaro, Funnycide and Smarty Jones) always advantageous in avoiding the many traffic jams in each Derby. Knocks: it was on Poly and he didn't beat much.
The pace looked decent and he still came home the last eigth in 12.7 while in the three path throughout.
Love his Classic breeding with Turkoman on bottom and it would be nice to see Danzig finally get a Derby winner in this his last crop after being such a great dirt and turf sire over many years.

He is well put together/balanced and looks to me like a solid contender. It will be interesting in the Bluegrass against Street Sense but another one on the more turf style Poly of Keeneland so who is to say what it will tell us- good or bad. For better Derby odds one hopes he runs a contentious race but finishes third or fourth like a Thunder Gulch or Unbridled. He will definitely be fit with 4 routes (two at a mile and an eigth) under his belt this year.

[JPinMaryland]

The most likely style of a Ky derby winner is closer, ala: Giacomo, Monarchos; F. Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Sea Hero, Lil E Tee, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato del Sole, Pleasant COlony, Spectacular Bid, Cannonade, Secretariat..

Count them yourself, I get 29 since 1947

[Racer98]

no e on Gato del Sol.

But yeah, you're right. Last wire to wire was Winning Colors. 19 Years ago.

[Wiley]

The most likely style of a Ky derby winner is closer, ala: Giacomo, Monarchos; F. Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Sea Hero, Lil E Tee, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato del Sole, Pleasant COlony, Spectacular Bid, Cannonade, Secretariat..

Count them yourself, I get 29 since 1947
Didn't say most 'likely' style, said 'preferred' winner style based on decreasing the significance of traffic problems that usually occur in such a big field race. You're right closers do win a fair share of the Derby enhanced by the many extreme paced years; Giacomo, Monarchos and some years closers are just the superior horse, Alysheba, Spectacular Bid and Secretaiat.

You count 29 years out of 60 for closers, so I assume stalkers or on the pace types won the other 31 years you mention? Impact Value based on running style would be more relevant but even that I would take with a grain of salt because each race, especially the Derby, is unique based on the participants comparitive running style, ability, breeding, form/fitness, track makeup etc. on that particular day.

Regardless, Hard Spun has tractible speed, a huge plus to me in a race like the Derby. HS reminds me a little of Swale in his running style.

Racer98, War Emblem wired in 2002.

[Racer98]

Ah, sorry my reference (a book) was printed in 2001. Been meaning to get a new one.

And not to mention the field of 20. (or is is 20,000?) It's way to easy to get stuck in the back. Dollar Bill comes to mind.

[JPinMaryland]

Didn't say most 'likely' style, said 'preferred' winner style based on decreasing the significance of traffic problems that usually occur in such a big field race.

It's probably ambiguous phrase at best. I assume you meant most likely but apparently not.

Given all that, why is a front running style preferred? Front runners find plenty of trouble; I just watched the derby highlite shows the other day and we have: Wheelaway taking out the entire first wave in 2000; Diablo taking out Avatar in 1975 (would have had a clear shot at this too). Candy Spots I know had trouble in '63 he was on the inside near the lead. I sort of vaguely recall Monarchos cutting off some horses although maybe he was moving too fast. That Cannonade race had some bumping in different parts, what about the Real Quiet race??

Plenty of front runners get wiped out when they are on the inner path. Hope Street Sense doent get clobbered by NoBiz this year..



You count 29 years out of 60 for closers, so I assume stalkers or on the pace types won the other 31 years you mention?




Here is what I got, listed in terms of closer/stalker/presser/gatetoWire

47 data pts. 1960-present, 24/11/6/6

67 data pts. 1940-present, 31/16/10/10

I had to change one data pt in terms of a recent post I made on this issue (Cannonero II did not go Wire to wire) so this maybe a little different than my last post..




Impact Value based on running style would be more relevant but even that I would take with a grain of salt because each race, especially the Derby, is unique based on the participants comparitive running style, ability, breeding, form/fitness, track makeup etc. on that particular day.

Regardless, Hard Spun has tractible speed, a huge plus to me in a race like the Derby. HS reminds me a little of Swale in his running style..

Well sure each race is unique, but all we can do is study trends. You are always going to be limted in that regard.

Yes, impact value would be a better way to measure all this, I was just doing a rough guide. Also does second and third place matter in all this??

Hard Spun could do it on the front end. I'd like to see how he runs if pressured on the front. Last race he was able to rate some and get a very nice pace, can he do that again?

[Wiley]

JP, you make a good point on closer winners historically in the Derby. Maybe I should change my way of thinking. I'll still go with the short term trend of forwardly placed types winning 5 of the last 6 Derby's - though to me this has little to no bearing on this years race. Should have used 'IMHO' preferred style to clear the confusion.

I have picked my spots over the years and have done alright in the race keying more significant bets for forwardly placed types when an advantage appears possible - Barbaro fit the bill last year.

Not that I am opposed to playing closers, did in the obvious pace meltdown year of '02, just the wrong one and never play them as strongly because of my disdain for these types being at the mercy of what's going on up front and the problem of finding the perfect route around walls of horses.

The make up of the race will be a factor as to whether I think Hard Spun is worth a play or not and it's too early to tell who his competition will be.

It's nice to see so many still on the Derby path, knock on wood, and the Bluegrass should be an interesting renewal with HS taking on Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter. Good luck with your pick.

[john del riccio]

It's probably ambiguous phrase at best. I assume you meant most likely but apparently not.

Given all that, why is a front running style preferred? Front runners find plenty of trouble; I just watched the derby highlite shows the other day and we have: Wheelaway taking out the entire first wave in 2000; Diablo taking out Avatar in 1975 (would have had a clear shot at this too). Candy Spots I know had trouble in '63 he was on the inside near the lead. I sort of vaguely recall Monarchos cutting off some horses although maybe he was moving too fast. That Cannonade race had some bumping in different parts, what about the Real Quiet race??

Plenty of front runners get wiped out when they are on the inner path. Hope Street Sense doent get clobbered by NoBiz this year..




Here is what I got, listed in terms of closer/stalker/presser/gatetoWire

47 data pts. 1960-present, 24/11/6/6

67 data pts. 1940-present, 31/16/10/10

I had to change one data pt in terms of a recent post I made on this issue (Cannonero II did not go Wire to wire) so this maybe a little different than my last post..




Well sure each race is unique, but all we can do is study trends. You are always going to be limted in that regard.

Yes, impact value would be a better way to measure all this, I was just doing a rough guide. Also does second and third place matter in all this??

Hard Spun could do it on the front end. I'd like to see how he runs if pressured on the front. Last race he was able to rate some and get a very nice pace, can he do that again?

JP,

Hard Spun ran an improved race in the LANES END but he hasn't set anywhere near the quality of fractions that the pace setters in the FOY did and if he is to make the lead against he is going to have to do it by running alot quicker earlier than he has been asked to in any of his previous starts. The FOY was the triple crown prep with the best display of pace to date. The LA Derby was a close second.

With that said, HS did get a very cozy trip last out. If you watch the replay(note to FATs....;)), you'll see he didn't get any dirt kicked in his face and as outside of horses the entire way. He still has a thing or two to prove to me.

John

[JPinMaryland]

Did he switch leads at all in the home stretch? I tried to watch it but had a hard time, at the end he looks to be on the wrong foot but maybe he was doing it right at the top of the stretch..? :confused: