Lanes End

[john del riccio]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/83424.html

Looks like Zito isn't necessarily confident that FOREFATHER belongs in this spot
when he says things like:

"When you're in this kind of position, it's really not that big a deal," said Zito. "If things don't pan out, you can always regroup because there are a lot of other nice races the rest of the year besides the Triple Crown."

John

[SMOO]

Hate to go chalk, but Hard Spun looks good in this spot.

[Wiley]

Later in the article he shows a little more confidence in Forefathers.

Said Zito: "I will let everybody in on this: This horse trained unbelievable over the Polytrack at Keeneland when we had him there last fall."

Either way it looks like a tough spot with some decent speed to his inside and out so it doesn't look promising for a favorable pace and trip and first time around two turns.

[Robert Fischer]

Tough race here, I think I will pass this one. There is some value to be had (maybe), if you have a strong opinion.

I like Sedgefield here.
Form, running style and likes the track (although that was the "souped-up" version he ran over).

Bullara may be coming into form. Yes, the last race was easy, but possible that "expected win" could hide good form.

A lot of the better race horses here will be going near the pace and may not love 9f over this track.

This will benefit Twilight Meteor somewhat as well. I don't know that Twilight will love this surface. If it were Keeneland I would say Meteor should be favored. His "off the turf" win in the Bourbon came at Keeneland over the AWT which is a lot more tiring. This track is pretty friendly to the pace.

[the_fat_man]

Later in the article he shows a little more confidence in Forefathers.

Said Zito: "I will let everybody in on this: This horse trained unbelievable over the Polytrack at Keeneland when we had him there last fall."

Either way it looks like a tough spot with some decent speed to his inside and out so it doesn't look promising for a favorable pace and trip and first time around two turns.

I'm with Nick. He has all the time he wants to TEACH Forefathers how to change leads (can the horse actually run on right lead?) and break from the gate. Hell, bring the horse back at 4 or 5; whatever it takes.

Nick is a patient dude; witness the way he KEEPS Bejarano on Heasanoldsalt:bang:. What's a few blown opportunities, right Nick?

Yeah, sooner of later things will work out.

[john del riccio]

I'm sorry but there is NO way if HIGHEST DEGREE, STARBASE, or HELIOS were matched up against SPORTS TOWN that I'd back any of them over him.

Who would take any of those three if they faced SPORTS TOWN in an allowance race at a nuetral oval ?

JOhn

[Robert Fischer]

I'm sorry but there is NO way if HIGHEST DEGREE, STARBASE, or HELIOS were matched up against SPORTS TOWN that I'd back any of them over him.

Who would take any of those three if they faced SPORTS TOWN in an allowance race at a nuetral oval ?

JOhn

If I had to take one of them it would be Helios.
If we are going a mile and a sixteenth distance at AQU. 9f is fine too, just not sure either horse is bred to go that long, but Helios can rate, and would have a fair chance if Sports Town wants to press the pace.

Sports Town still ran about 2 seconds faster in unadjusted time and was in a classier race, AND part of a much more hectic pace. If we believe the DRF variant then the track was faster on the 10th(whirlaway day) than the 18th.


here are some of my figures on the last race of each:

all numbers unadjusted and listed in feet/second. Pace(actual time call at 6 furlongs converted to feet per second) and Pace Quality(pQ) (avg feet/second of the 3 highest win probability horses at the 6f call).

The whirlaway shows as it should to be of a much more hectic pace. Something of note however is that in Helios last race, the finalTime was faster in feet/second than the 6furlong pace(the actual time call and the pQ figure). This is not very common in dirt races.:eek: Certainly not the ideal situation to close into.


RACE: AOC 46 3YO finalTime: 53.08(feet/second)
pQ:52.7 PACE-pQ:0.23
PACE-FinalTime: -0.16 pQ-finalTime: -0.39

RACE: STAKES 65 3YO
finalTime: 54.88(feet/second)
pQ:55.13 PACE-pQ: 0.37
PACE-finalTime: 0.62 pQ-finalTime: 0.25

[the_fat_man]

If I had to take one of them it would be Helios.
If we are going a mile and a sixteenth distance at AQU. 9f is fine too, just not sure either horse is bred to go that long, but Helios can rate, and would have a fair chance if Sports Town wants to press the pace.



Yeah, Sports town ran behind the great SD (in the biased race). Why do I want him over Helios routing on anything but a BIASED track?

I've been waiting for Helios to run back, off his prevous effort against Marina's Market in which he basically exploded the last split or the race collapsed --whatever the interpretation. (Could've been one of those OPTICAL ILLUSIONS :rolleyes:)
Wonder what happens is the jock keeps him on the rail rather than angling him wide for the stretch run. The speed basically quit and the suckup rail horse came outside him and got the nod. Oh look, it was Mike Luzzi up. :lol:. Go figure, he usually gives perfect rides.

The problem, of course, is that I was expecting to see him in a NW1, not a stake (poor as it may be).

The connections must think more of him than Pink Viper.

Let's make a push to look beyond the (speed) figure.

[JustRalph]

Looking at Friday's charts..........the place looks like a field day for front runners on Friday night...........time to go watch some video...........

[john del riccio]

Looking at Friday's charts..........the place looks like a field day for front runners on Friday night...........time to go watch some video...........

Ralph,

Keep in mind the track does and will change each day and since they raced at night last night with lower temps and no sunlight its all but guarenteed that the surface will be different today. Besides, who knows what my friends in the tractors will have in store for us......

With that said, the two better races around 2 turns last night were won from off the pace which goes along with Ainsles saying of "class overcomes bias" you could say. Most of those wire jobs were in sprints and yes there were longshots that won on the lead adding evidence to the potential speed bias, at least for sprints last night but keep in mind, todays surface will likely be very different.

Good Luck.

John

PS Look at the FTS that won race 3 from off the pace for an owner trainer at 48-1.....I hope he made a bet !

[JustRalph]

John, appreciate the comments.

I think the third place finisher in the 9th race "showmethegreatone"

ran the race of the night against a bias........... check that video if you can.

It should be a fun day. Good Luck!

[Bignick63]

The Lane's End looks to be a very competitive race. There are early burners trying to get 1 1/8 miles and there are off pace closers trying to outfinish other closers. Twilight Meteor is now being asked to become a serious player on dirt. He certainly is bred for distance on any surface so this is a real important race for him at this time. He doesn't need to win but he has to come up with a big effort. Sedgefield also has to show he can handle the bigger - tougher on the dirt. Joe Got Even figures to run a big race in here and For You Reppo can surprise and be in the exacta!
nick
www.nickborg.com/blog.html (http://www.nickborg.com/blog.html)

[john del riccio]

The Lane's End looks to be a very competitive race. There are early burners trying to get 1 1/8 miles and there are off pace closers trying to outfinish other closers. Twilight Meteor is now being asked to become a serious player on dirt. He certainly is bred for distance on any surface so this is a real important race for him at this time. He doesn't need to win but he has to come up with a big effort. Sedgefield also has to show he can handle the bigger - tougher on the dirt. Joe Got Even figures to run a big race in here and For You Reppo can surprise and be in the exacta!
nick
www.nickborg.com/blog.html (http://www.nickborg.com/blog.html)

JOE is nagging at me, I liked him in the Batalgia but thankfully I didn't pull the trigger because he got crushed in the last few minutes. Check out the replay of that race. NO PACE, he drew inside and instead of being aggressive, Mena took him back and he got stuck down inside behind horses while the eventual winner was outside and pressing the leaders. BAD ride, he loves this surface but this group is alot tougher than that field.

JOhn

[SMOO]

Hate to go chalk, but Hard Spun looks good in this spot.

$7.20 - not too bad for chalk. ;)