British Racing

[andicap]

Thought I'd start a separate thread devoted just to handicapping.

I've been mucking about on the UK Forums and despite being challenged by some of the jargon :) -- am enjoying what I'm reading. Some questions:

-- Is there an edge to compiling trainer stats?, Not the computerized stuff BRIS, HDW puts out, but patterns. E.g. Joe Jones is profitable after a layoff during the spring meets on the turf. Owner-trainer combos, etc. Before simulcasting I used to handicap like this and kind of enjoyed it. Used it with trips and speed figs when I centered soley on NYRA.

-- I was reading on the flatstats forum about the sectional (pace) times now on Turftrax. I went to turftrax and couldn't tell if it was only for All-Weather tracks as the Forum suggested. Any kind of pacetimes would be excellent for my energy distribution handicapping.

-- (Largely for Robert) I saw on the Flatstats forum a guy named "Monster" had computed his own Brohamer-Sartin type velocity figures. Anyone know if he applied a track variant for these figures or because they were on the Polytracks or Fibresand the figuring was that a variant wasn't needed. (Which I don't see at Turfway -- variants still apply due to changing weather conditions.)

-- Are those Flatstats statistics worth paying for as a jumping off point or pretty worthless because they are too broad AND too many people are using them.

-- Are most, if not all of those books, methods, on how to profitably trade with Betfair a pile of junk? I guess it really is like day trading.

[mwilding1981]

Can't answer all your questions but will try to answer a few. Monster on flatstats is quite well known for giving out very good info but at the same time keeping how he comes to it very close so my guess is you won't find out that answer.
The flatstats are good especially for the price. However they are broad although a lot of work can narrow them down and yes a lot of people use them. However I doubt many of those people actually spend the time neccessary tog et anything useful out of them. So are they useful yes and no. I owuld suggest visiting this site www.adrianmassey.com which is totally free and also has a huge database that you can search through using a quite large selection of criteria. So my suggestion would be to use that one.

Books on betfair are both good and bad. It depends how experience you are. It is trading and you need to be able to sit and do it. However if you are new to the game they are a useful and good read. The rest is pure practice and don't let anyone tell you it is easy cos it aint. Most of those books will gfocus on the scratch trade as opposed to the long trade and that is where a lot of the big players on betfair make their money. Anyway if you pm me I will happily send you over a copyof one of the better ebooks which is a good place to start

[robert99]

Thought I'd start a separate thread devoted just to handicapping.

I've been mucking about on the UK Forums and despite being challenged by some of the jargon :) -- am enjoying what I'm reading. Some questions:

-- Is there an edge to compiling trainer stats?, Not the computerized stuff BRIS, HDW puts out, but patterns. E.g. Joe Jones is profitable after a layoff during the spring meets on the turf. Owner-trainer combos, etc. Before simulcasting I used to handicap like this and kind of enjoyed it. Used it with trips and speed figs when I centered soley on NYRA.

-- I was reading on the flatstats forum about the sectional (pace) times now on Turftrax. I went to turftrax and couldn't tell if it was only for All-Weather tracks as the Forum suggested. Any kind of pacetimes would be excellent for my energy distribution handicapping.

-- (Largely for Robert) I saw on the Flatstats forum a guy named "Monster" had computed his own Brohamer-Sartin type velocity figures. Anyone know if he applied a track variant for these figures or because they were on the Polytracks or Fibresand the figuring was that a variant wasn't needed. (Which I don't see at Turfway -- variants still apply due to changing weather conditions.)

-- Are those Flatstats statistics worth paying for as a jumping off point or pretty worthless because they are too broad AND too many people are using them.

-- Are most, if not all of those books, methods, on how to profitably trade with Betfair a pile of junk? I guess it really is like day trading.

The Flatstats forum has quite a good thread on the use of trainer data.
It is quite underused in any sophisticated way and well worth developing.
Most meetings are single days, unlike USA. Trainer/ owner and trainer specific jockey are good areas but being simple are probably overbet. The UK racing public, in general, is not as educated as in USA and few have mastered even the basics.
Turftrax had random sectional times for a limited number of tracks. In future they will only cover all weather racing. You could ask Monster (he is a good guy) but track variants are essential on AW, same as on turf. I do my own sectionals on other tracks so that is good news for me but not the sport in general. Flatstats are good and underused - they also have several profitable and well researched systems. It is more for those who use systems rather than individual race analysis. Betfair is more sophisticated than Wall Strreet, it is nothing like day trading, and the sharks will get you if not well prepared. Read what you can from books and from the various forums. Put things into practice very gently until up to speed and your sixth sense alarm kicks in. Avoid in-running betting until mastered pre-race betting. Very few make a profit even at around 5% takeout.

[andicap]

I am actually in Barnstaple right now, but not sure I'll have time today to stop in at Ladbrooke's as Im checking out schools today and houses over the weekend. (I know, my priorities are weak) Hope to make it one day.

Any good plays for today, tomorrow or Sunday in case I've got a minute to pop in??
I looked at the Racing Form at a WH Smiths but it is a very tough read for a newbie to UK racing and probably not much help anyway as EVERYONE can see what's in there.

[The Judge]

Are you just interested in British trainers or all trainers a sure you know about Ed Bains layoff and claims at HTTP:\\www.edbain.com.

[mudnturf]

I am actually in Barnstaple right now, but not sure I'll have time today to stop in at Ladbrooke's as Im checking out schools today and houses over the weekend. (I know, my priorities are weak) Hope to make it one day.

Any good plays for today, tomorrow or Sunday in case I've got a minute to pop in??
I looked at the Racing Form at a WH Smiths but it is a very tough read for a newbie to UK racing and probably not much help anyway as EVERYONE can see what's in there.

Andy
When I visit the bookmaking shops in England, I frequently lack the patience and/or time to dope out the info in the Racing Post. So, if I'm desperate for a little action, I go to the "Selection Box" in the Racing Post for whichever track I'm going to bet, and then check out the three guys whose opinions I respect most. Namely, they are Rob Wright (Times), Tony Lewis (Sun), and Rodney Masters. When I have the time to check the past performances, it's a different story.
Just have fun!!

[andicap]

Fun? Too busy being exhausted and jet lagged. Looked at schools yesterday, got back to my room at 6 p.m. and fell asleep until 8 a.m. I must have walked 5 miles yesterday, no exaggerating. Maybe even six.
Happy with what I say on the school front which was great.
Today its looking at homes and hopefully tonight I'll be on my feet enough to hit a pub.
Thanks for the advice on the public handicappers and if I have a few moments I'll pop into a shop and bet a few.

[flatstats]

Hey guys. Hope I can clear a few things up here.

First I don't know what you mean by Flatstats stats being too broad. Does that mean they are from Norfolk, look like beans, or have a wide rear? :D

One problem I have always had is making the site unique but appealing to a lot of punters.

This has been a difficult balancing act because if the stats are too bland it merges with the dumb down trash available in the daily papers, and if you make it too complex you risk creating a nerd, cult site which is not worth the hassle.

I think the balance is about right now but I'm disappointed to say that there are less customers now than three years ago :confused:

I don't know how the US stats sites are coping. I know you guys are more intune with stats rather than form and there are plenty of sites which provide stats information for punters more used to alternative ways of handicapping rather than Form based handicapping which is the bread and butter of the punter here in the UK.

---

As for overbet, or overused a few months ago I compared Betfair subscriber figures with the Flastats subscriber figures and this reveals that the site is not actually overbet in anyway.

At the last check I worked out that the percentage of Betfair customers who subcribe to Flatstats is about 0.17%. This is based on figures Betfair give out about their number of customers (debatable as there could be multiple card accounts, bonus accounts, lapsed accounts etc.), and on the number of Flatstats subscribers which I can obviously tally up.

If the Betfair figure is right. then it means that 99.83% of Betfair customers DONT use Flatstats.

Putting it another way: For every one Flatstats subscriber there are 588 Betfair punters not using Flatstats, or every time you place a bet on Betfair there are 588 punters not using the same information as you.

For that very reason I don't think Flatstats has too many people using it, it is oversubscribed, or it is overbet.

[andicap]

Have you polled subscribers or potential subscribers, done market research, on the demand?
Perhaps you need a two tiered system, a basic level -- maybe what you have now -- and a more sophisiticated level that gives more trainer patterns rather than just statistics. I find statistics helpful at times but also misleading.
I don't use trainer stats all that much now in the states but in a place where the pace times are lacking I certainly might.
In that instance,
I don't just want to know what Joe Smith has done at a particular meet, distance, etc., but what patterns has he employed successfully that have caught long odds in the past? When he enters a horse off a layoff, what are the tip offs that it MIGHT be well-meant? Will it have a special series of workouts? a certain jockey? or class? What about the odds? Are his well-meant layoff horses well backed? (if you're really sophisticated in this area, you might even check to see if the trainer's stable bets early or late. ) Or does he tend to give his horses a race or two before cracking down?
Some trainers even employ different tactics based on the owners. That's because these owners might read "The Sheets" or Thorograph -- speed figures -- and make their own decisions on when and where to run their horses.
Basically if you're playing trainer intent you want to be able to get inside the conditioner's mind if possible.
If I played this way and was a bit more sophisticated in the use of databases I would also track how well a trainer's horses run when they have the best last race speed figure. Do they keep their form for a while or tend to run one or two good races and go off-form?

[flatstats]

I understand what you mean with patterns.

This will apply most definitely with trainers, where you can spot their patterns and idiosyncracies.

Trainers tend to do what they have always done and will therefore get what they have always got.

In this instance it is possible to see what they have done, and what they are going to do. This will be things such as noting that they tend to win with class droppers into a claiming stakes, or are good with lay off runners.

One strong stat which has gone on for years and was only last year picked up by a mass publication media source (although it never dented the stat) was the Sir Michael Stoute first run of the year stat.

Stoute is a top class Newmarket trainer and he is really good at getting horses fit from one year to the next on their first start of the year.

I know you guys love this stuff so read and weap at the following data :)

Sir Michael Stoute First Run of the Year

158 wins from 562 runs, 28.1% strike rate, 34.2% ROI, 1.20 A/E

This has been consistent for the past ten years:

97 1.23 A/E
98 1.06
99 1.27
00 1.39
01 1.02
02 1.09
03 1.25
04 1.19
05 1.18
06 1.27

With this stat the man is a cash cow bigger than Oprah is a fat cow.

What this stats demonstrates is that trainers do indeed specialise in one area and are weak at others and this can easily fool the masses.

As Stoute is so hot with his first run of the year horses what do you think the media pundits and punters are going to do with those horses who have already won? They are going to overbet them on their next few races and lose in the long run!

As for Jockeys I think that they have patterns but this is not by design. Trainers such as Stoute build their training regime up around stats such as the first run of the year stats but jockeys don't do that, and are more victim to flaws and biases not of their own making.

A Jockey maybe good in sprint races whilst B Jockey maybe better in long distances, C Jockey maybe better at courses which are described as tight, whilst D Jockey maybe better on galloping courses.

You see, the punter doesn't know or understand this. All he knows is that 'Frankie Dettori is a good jockey, and William Buick is a good apprentice'. In this instance the punter will think that a jockey is a jockey, Frankie is Frankie, Buick is Buick and they can win in any race at any distance, on any going.....

That is totally the wrong way to think and can trap many a punter.

You only have to read drivel on UK betting forums (Betfair :D or listen to punters in betting shops to know that this kind of thing is strong and evident.

Punters will watch a jockey win one race and praise him, but in the next race when the same jockey is on the favourite and the horse loses the jockey is the worst in the world....

The truth is that the punter is the worst in the world because he assumed that jockeys are 100% efficient under every racing condition.

You wouldn't expect Carl Lewis to win the New York Marathon, and you wouldn't expect Grete Waitz to win a 100m, sprint so you shouldn't expect jockeys to win every race where pace, track conformity, and surface going is a factor.

I haven't even started on sires or horse profiles yet but I think the above is enough to consider. ;)