Question about Chart Calls for shorter Sprints

[Robert Fischer]

I came up with a new problem that I never knew that I had :rolleyes: .


In a 5.5f sprint, I would like to see the chart call at 4f (four furlongs).

The times are easy to find. This group of maiden claimers clocked 4f at 45.61.

Looking at the Chart, I have a call for all horses at 1/4 ... and then 3/8 !
(followed by stretch and finish)

My instinct is telling me that 3/8 is equal to three furlongs. Without realizing it in the past I had been content to equate that second call under 3/8 as with the 4fTIMECALL at the bottom.

Any Help :confused:

[cj]

If you answer this one, let the rest of us know!

[bobphilo]

I came up with a new problem that I never knew that I had :rolleyes: .


In a 5.5f sprint, I would like to see the chart call at 4f (four furlongs).

The times are easy to find. This group of maiden claimers clocked 4f at 45.61.

Looking at the Chart, I have a call for all horses at 1/4 ... and then 3/8 !
(followed by stretch and finish)

My instinct is telling me that 3/8 is equal to three furlongs. Without realizing it in the past I had been content to equate that second call under 3/8 as with the 4fTIMECALL at the bottom.

Any Help :confused:

This is strange indeed. I've always believed the timer is supposed to be set up to record the times at the points of call. The question is, where are they getting the 4F time from?

Bob

[Tom]

At 5.5 furlongs, the times and points of call do not match.

The times are taken at 2,4,4.5,and 5.5 furlongs.
Points of call for positions are at 2,3,4.5, and 5.5.

If the horse goes wire to wire, no problem, otherwise, you can add the 3 furlong and 4.5 furlong beaten lengths and average out a 4 furlong call.

[skate]

to me;


id have to ask, what is your question?

also, to me, where you receive a call or how you develope your pace is not as important as the cosistency.

being too limited , too partcular, too precise with your calls will be diluted when you consider the odds of the wager.
your pace considered is always irrespective of the odds. they (odds) alone are precise.

[Robert Fischer]

At 5.5 furlongs, the times and points of call do not match.


nifty chart easy to read
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=calltimeschart


Other key distances that do not match:
Distance 5.5f : 5 1/21st Call (1/4)2nd Call (3/8)Stretch (str)Finish (FIN)
Fractional Times 1/4 1/2 5/8 finish

DistanceStart 10f (1 1/4)1st Call (1/4)2nd Call (1/2) mile Finish (FIN)
Fractional Times 1/2 3/4 mile finish

DistanceStart 12f (1 1/2)1st Call (1/4)2nd Call (1/2) 1 1/4 (Str)Finish (FIN)
Fractional Times 1/2 3/4 1 1/4 finish


for my purposes, I am going to start (with the 5.5) by taking half of the time difference between the 1/2(4f) time and the 1/4(2f) time and using that for my 3/8(3f) Point of Call.
So if 22/ 45 then .5(45-22)+22 = .5(23)+22 = 11.5+23 = 34.5
Later I will add a better formula.

also will need to pro-rate a 3/4ths for the sake of comparison at the 10f distance(in addition to using the miletimeCall). Lucky that not too many dirt races go 12f. Pace does occasionally factor in the 12furlong turf races especially in california.

Skate - I am playing around with some numbers looking at the pace for a specific race and where the win probability is positioned in that race. Idea is based on the theory that quality horses on the lead create a more demanding pace scenario than the longshot that none of the favorites bother chasing.

[Tom]

For what it's worth, I don't bother making any adjsutments - I use the .5 and 6 furlongs second call times and beaten lengths as if they were the same. It's just not worth the bother and probably within the margin of error in chart calling.

[Robert Fischer]

I noticed an error-

So if 22/ 45 then .5(45-22)+22 = .5(23)+22 = 11.5+23 = 34.5

SHOULD READ 5(45-22)+22 = .5(23)+22 = 11.5+22 = 33.5

[the_fat_man]

nifty chart easy to read
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=calltimeschart




Contributing to the code writing issues: the above is not exactly correct.

For example:

calls: 1 mile 1/4 1/2 3/4 str finish
Fractions: 1/4 1/2 3/4 finish

Select tracks (OP, SA, among others) have fractions for the 'STR' call.

[the_fat_man]

Idea is based on the theory that quality horses on the lead create a more demanding pace scenario than the longshot that none of the favorites bother chasing.

This makes a HUGE ASSUMPTION: the jockeys realize the horse has no shot AND the horses cooperate.

Ever watch track and field? Just about every BIG mile or 1/2 mile race employs a rabbit (or 2) to ensure that the pace, and thus the finish, is fast and that some plodder doesn't steal it.

[Robert Fischer]

This makes a HUGE ASSUMPTION: the jockeys realize the horse has no shot AND the horses cooperate.


It certainly will not hold true for every race. Not every race has a clear, obvious pace scenario going in. Not every horse can cooporate.
It is more of a factor in the route races at higher class levels.
The resulting data itself will not instantly give a "selection". It can flag a race, and then you go and handicapp that race and watch the film...

I am confident that this theory is true some of the time. Most of the jockeys and trainers handicapp the races too. Not too hard for them in many situations to know who the speed is and if they are any serious threat. For a contrast in race styles compare the Tampa Derby with the FOY. Consider if you think John Velazquez was concerned with All I Can Get stealing the race. Then a race like the Fountain of Youth you have Kent Desormeaux with Stormello and that horse is setting a fast pace and isn't looking to fade. That type of thing puts puts pressure on a horse like Nobiz. Maybe Scat Daddy was the beneficiary.

here are a few races with the raw unadjusted pace quality times(pQ):

tampa derby 3/17/07 8.5f 300k
street sense 3/4:72.03 lengths:4.5 adjusted:72.75
any given Saturday 3/4:72.03 lengths:1.5 adjusted:72.27
pQ:72.51 (1:12.51) avg lengths:3 pq-3/4:0.48

tampa3/17/07 race 7 claimer 8.5f 4yo 22k
silver peagus 3/4:72.48 lengths:0 adjusted:72.48
jamain 3/4:72.48 lengths:1.5 adjusted:72.72
psychic Star 3/4:72.48 lengths:5.75 adjusted:73.4
pQ:72.87 (1:12.87) avg lengths:2.42 pq-3/40.39



FOY GP 9f 350k 3/3/07
scat daddy 3/4:69.89 lengths:3 adjusted:70.35
stormello 3/4:69.89 lengths:0 adjusted:69.89
nobiz like shobiz 3/4:69.89 lengths:1.5 adjusted:70.13
pQ:70.12 (1:10.12) avg lengths:1.5 pq-3/40.24

[the_fat_man]

It certainly will not hold true for every race. Not every race has a clear, obvious pace scenario going in. Not every horse can cooporate.
It is more of a factor in the route races at higher class levels.
The resulting data itself will not instantly give a "selection". It can flag a race, and then you go and handicapp that race and watch the film...

I am confident that this theory is true some of the time. Most of the jockeys and trainers handicapp the races too. Not too hard for them in many situations to know who the speed is and if they are any serious threat. For a contrast in race styles compare the Tampa Derby with the FOY. Consider if you think John Velazquez was concerned with All I Can Get stealing the race. Then a race like the Fountain of Youth you have Kent Desormeaux with Stormello and that horse is setting a fast pace and isn't looking to fade. That type of thing puts puts pressure on a horse like Nobiz. Maybe Scat Daddy was the beneficiary.

here are a few races with the raw unadjusted pace quality times(pQ):

tampa derby 3/17/07 8.5f 300k
street sense 3/4:72.03 lengths:4.5 adjusted:72.75
any given Saturday 3/4:72.03 lengths:1.5 adjusted:72.27
pQ:72.51 (1:12.51) avg lengths:3 pq-3/4:0.48

tampa3/17/07 race 7 claimer 8.5f 4yo 22k
silver peagus 3/4:72.48 lengths:0 adjusted:72.48
jamain 3/4:72.48 lengths:1.5 adjusted:72.72
psychic Star 3/4:72.48 lengths:5.75 adjusted:73.4
pQ:72.87 (1:12.87) avg lengths:2.42 pq-3/40.39



FOY GP 9f 350k 3/3/07
scat daddy 3/4:69.89 lengths:3 adjusted:70.35
stormello 3/4:69.89 lengths:0 adjusted:69.89
nobiz like shobiz 3/4:69.89 lengths:1.5 adjusted:70.13
pQ:70.12 (1:10.12) avg lengths:1.5 pq-3/40.24



I think there's substance there. There are long held 'truisms' in handicapping that need to be let go.

But the obvious cases are just that, obvious. But these are few and far between as, usually, the fields are fairly evenly matched and setup determines who wins.

The NoBiz Scat Daddy confrontations have, to this point, been won by the horse that doesn't find trouble. NoBiz finds trouble at the gate in the Champagne, Scat Daddy wins. Scat Daddy settles slowly and runs to the first quarter in the Holy Bull, NoBiz wins. NoBiz gets slammed at the gate in the FOY, Scat Daddy wins. And actually, NoBiz always finds trouble as he can't run straight in the stretch.

The top 4 horses around the track finished 2,3,4,5 in the FOY. Hal's Hope finished 5th and nothing else gained in the race from the 4F mark on. Not that there was much else in the race but Drums of Thunder might've picked up his feet a bit.
I suspect Scat Daddy didn't have the best of it.