How to estimate place/show payoffs..? :confused:

[JPinMaryland]

Acting on an internet tip, I bet Suaveness to show in the FL Oaks (TB, 10th race 3/17).

She goes off at 69-1 and comes in second. It was a good tip. The show payoff is $12.60 or about 5-1. That seemed light to me.

Is there a way to do a rough approx. of what to expect from show and place payoffs? Her place payoff was $31.00 for a $2 bet. I was at an OTB and did not have access to the place and show pools, I probably wouldnt bother with the math anyways but is there any rough guide to how these are supposed to pay?? THanks.

[tupper]

The odds of the win, place and show payoffs come from their own pools, and, thus, have no direct bearing on each other.

However, breakdowns of place and show pools are available during wagering. When you calculate your selection's percentage of the place/show pool, you should be able to get a idea of the place/show payoff by using this table from an earlier thread: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=364752&postcount=17

According to this table, show money on Suaveness must have amounted to slightly less than 5% of the show pool. Her place payoff of $31 is off the scale of this table, but I would guess her percentage of the place pool was around 3 1/2% - 4%.

[JPinMaryland]

ummm. Looking at some other payoffs on sat. and looking at the figs in that chart, if she's paying 31-1 to play you'd think shed pay 15 or 16-1 to show. but it would depend on the size of the field i.e. if the field was small enough that she was much better to hit the board then win..

[tupper]

...looking at the figs in that chart, if she's paying 31-1 to play you'd think shed pay 15 or 16-1 to show. but it would depend on the size of the fieldKeep in mind that the horse's percentage of the place pool can differ from the horse's percentage of the show pool. For instance, the place money on a horse might amount to 5% of the place pool (which would pay $16.80 according to the table), while the show money on the same horse could be 10% of the show pool (yielding $5.60, as shown on the table).

Also, the field size doesn't necessarily relate directly to the pay-off as much as a horse's percentage of the pool relates to the pay-off. For example, the place pay-off on a horse that has 5% of the place pool will be the same in a field of 5 as it would be in a field of 13, provided that the other place horse has the same percentage of the place pool in both fields.

[JPinMaryland]

right that makes sense. STill feels like being ripped off by crazy FL tracks...

[Robert Fischer]

The by percent guidelines that were given here are accurate in most situations.

However when a heavy favorite or two do pay out for that pool as well, you can receive less.

For example the Tampa Bay Derby, Delightful Kiss pays out at 2.10 to show behind Street Sense and Any Given Saturday.

???
Is this true ONLY when a certain imbalance in the pool is reached, OR if this is true to some degree any time? a heavy favorite pays out to that pool.

[pic6vic]

This may help

If you have access to the pools. You can do this in your head in about 15 seconds. Remeber you are trying to estimate. Take the pool and multiply by 8. Take off the last digit. add the total of the 3 horses that finish in the money. For estimating take your horse plus the next 2 highest amounts. Subtract that from the pool, divide by 3 and this is the amount each horse will receive. Now divide by the amount on your horse. This is simpler than it sounds and with practice you can do fairly quick without a calc. Remeber you are estimating, so for large pools use round numbers. Example

Show pool $50000.00.

Horse A 5000
HORSE B 10000
YOURS 3000

80% OF POOL IS 40000.00 MINUS 18000 BET ONTHE 3 HORSES LEAVES 22000 TO RETURN. DIVEIDE BY 3 AND YOU GET 7333. NOW DIVIDE BY YOUR HORSE AND YOU GET 2.33 (ROUNDED) TO 1, OR 4.60 TO SHOW.

[rrbauer]

ummm. Looking at some other payoffs on sat. and looking at the figs in that chart, if she's paying 31-1 to play you'd think shed pay 15 or 16-1 to show. but it would depend on the size of the field i.e. if the field was small enough that she was much better to hit the board then win..

Think "Place" if your horse is 30-1 on the front win and you're looking for a 15-1 payout.

[Anderon]

This should help you out. In my own program it already does this for me from the live tote feed that I have. :)


http://www.twinspiresclub.com/playing_to_win/201/CalcPlaceShow/Calc_place_and_show_2.html

http://www.twinspiresclub.com/playing_to_win/201/CalcPlaceShow/Calc_place_and_show_3.html

[toetoe]

Say Vic,

Wazzup? As you must have noticed, the huge place/show advantage that favorites once enjoyed has seemingly disappeared, I guess because of the new way they calculate the place and show payoffs. How else to explain faves paying 2.10 in small fields while medium shots pay 5.00 or more? In the old days, only HUGE shots paid more than 2.00 and change to show when a 2.10 fave ran in the money. If this is not another of my hallucinations, this makes the 12.00 payoff even more appalling, as longshots pay much better in this new arrangement. Or am I imagining it?

[garyoz]

If you are playing from home ATR Pro is a great utility. It gives the range of place and show payoffs color coded for over and underlays. Also has several great metrics including overlayed and underlayed exactas, tracks per minute odds changes, etc. 30 day free trial and $99 per year.

http://www.homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

Works best if you have a phonebet account because they have the best data. I'm not sure how well it works with other data sources.

[AwolAtPA]

Acting on an internet tip,
I bet Suaveness to show in the FL Oaks (TB, 10th race 3/17).

She goes off at 69-1 and comes in second. It was a good tip.
The show payoff is $12.60 or about 5-1. That seemed light to me.

Is there a way to do a rough approx.
of what to expect from show and place payoffs?


Yes, JP there is a way but my way is a little different than others have noted.

I say remember this is pari-MUTUEL betting. So, for an estimate of place and show, a person must look at the other money in THIS race.

let us take a detour to the TAM 2007-03-17 Results **

Race: 12 Win Place Show
1st 2 Street Sense 4.40 2.40 2.10
2nd 4 Any Given Saturday 2.20 2.10
3rd 7 Delightful Kiss 2.10
4th 5 Most Distinguished
$2 Exacta 2-4 6.80
$2 Trifecta 2-4-7 28.80
$2 Superfecta 2-4-7-5 81.20

The win odds #4 = 1.2 #2= 0.7 and #7= 20.3
yes, twenty to one paid 2.10 because the BOTH of the clear favorites ran Win Place. Oh, the complainer will say that Superfecta was a ripoff because 5 was also twenty to one. aaah, will not take this detour from the show price issue but could not resist throwing in another stab at those folks who complain about Trifecta and Superfecta payoffs. That is, another example for the LOOK at the Race for what will THIS race likely pay.

OK, back to your race the 10th, here are the Results**

Race: 10 Win Place Show
1st 7 Cotton Blossom 4.00 3.40 3.00
2nd 6 Suaveness 31.00 12.60
3rd 8 Maria's Kitty 10.00
4th 2 Autobahn Girl

$2 Exacta 7-6 140.20
$2 Trifecta 7-6-8 939.80
$2 Superfecta 7-6-8-2 4502.80
-----------------
win odds: 7= 1.0, 2= 69.0 3= 34.4, 4= 1.8

well the SHOULD pay folks will say, #3 at 34 paid ten, so, #2 at 69 SHOULDA paid more than twelve. The race had TWO clear favorites, so both of those would be drawing WPS money. Oh, that three dollars to Show on a four dollar winner, WOW, what a gift. WHY did #7 pay so much? Well, guess somebody dumped on the #2 and all that money was shared by #7, 6, and 8.

now, what about the bettors?

I am among the group of players that will SOMETIMES bet a hunch (long shot) to show and key with the favorite(s). So, that group of bettors would been using # 3 Saint Barbara or # 2 Suaveness. Well, I have a sister named Barbara, so, my hunch on 3 would lost. BUT, I really expect some others from my group would have used #2 and collected the Show AND the Exacta. Also,what if someone in the group bet a hundred dollars instead of ten. That is, the bet is $6 Show and $2 Exact key (2 and 7) with 6. Ahh, that player WOULDA collected the show thirty times and the exacta ten times.

Yup, that $140.20 Exacta was sure a gift with a four dollar favorite.

Oh, now besides the Longshot players, there is the group of bettors who are ...playing a tip... This group is formed by friends of the Jockey, Trainer, Maitre De, bus boy, and (a new source) the INTERNET.

so, longshot players should feel good that a whale did not have a brainfart and decide to bet on this race because that four dollar winner AND everyone else would paid two dollars and ten cents.

aaah, concerning the '..groups..' refered to above. There is NO way to reasonably guess the count for each group. However, for Reverse Engineering the pay offs in a race, you can EXPECT there will likely be at least one (and maybe a hundred) in each group.

So, my question for you JP:

How many others do you think played this race based on the Internet TIP?

well, a bit of a protracted way of saying: JP you got lucky it paid that much.

--------
duane

**(Results from RacingChannel.com: http://racingchannel.com/archives/TAM/2007/03/TAM070317.HTM
)**end

[Ron]

How many others do you think played this race based on the Internet TIP?



That's the second time I read this. How do I get on this Internet thing?

[AwolAtPA]

That's the second time I read this. How do I get on this Internet thing?

well, I am not a member of that group.

yes, second reference but as a question to JP.

so, will JP post the link to this internet tip site?

duane/AWOL
A--Winner--OR--Loser

[JPinMaryland]

I am trying to find it, dammit. I looked on derby trail but nothing. Did a website search but nothing...

Could be on espn, or maybe the about site. Sure wish I could find it. The guy said "Suaveness has had an excuse last two times out..." The PPs didnt really say anything but she was on turf the last time out, the race before that I dunno she was blocked or something not sure. She was morning line 30-1 but had climbed to 60-1 so it was just too obvious..

I'll try to find it...

[Lefty]

Most of you already know this but for those that don't: Longshots to show are the worst percentage bet in Racing. Period. Saw one pay $102, TP I think, $6 and change to show.

[AwolAtPA]

I am trying to find it, dammit. I looked on derby trail but nothing. Did a website search but nothing...

Could be on espn, or maybe the about site. Sure wish I could find it. The guy said "Suaveness has had an excuse last two times out..." The PPs didnt really say anything but she was on turf the last time out, the race before that I dunno she was blocked or something not sure. She was morning line 30-1 but had climbed to 60-1 so it was just too obvious..

I'll try to find it...

hey JP, that is OK, stop your search!!

now we see that the '..internet tip..' could have been '..found..' by other handicappers who would say '...HAD AN EXCUSE..'

and, I agree that this '...HAD AN EXCUSE..' being overlooked by the public to be over 60 to one would ALMOST be '...too obivous..' for a show bet. I say ALMOST because I would want to take the risk out of the bet by checking that a BridgeJumper had not dumped into the show pool. AND, that I thought that ONLY one of the Chalk-Favorites would hit the board.

-----
re: Lefty


Longshots to show are the worst percentage bet in Racing. Period.


YES, I agree show is the the least likely to make money betting as a blind spot play. The collection percentage will be HIGH (not worst) but combined with the LOW payoffs, I agree, that in general, WORST percentage bet to make money.

However, to get over five times my money, that is a HUNCH that I will bet and hope that my history for betting Hunches will make money. yup, only need 2 of 10 Hunches pay an average of five times money to have a little fun betting hunches, SOMETIMES!!

duane

[JPinMaryland]

Here is the post, Derby trail, selections area, 2nd page, it is golfer's first post in this thread...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10923

[bobphilo]

It also depends on how much money was bet on the other horse or horses that you have to share the place and show pools with. When heavy favorites run in the money, they can significantly reduce the pay-offs of the other horses too.
Similarly, when big favorites finish out of the money, place and show pay-offs go up for all.
To find a minimum payoff you should see what percentage of the pool your choice plus the favorite are getting for place, and the percentage your horse plus the 1st 2 choices are getting for show.

Bob

[JPinMaryland]

aaaah! okay now that makes sense, I can understand that. The two major chalks finished 1 and 4, but I have to figure out who came in 3rd. Actually she was a bit of a longshot, 10-1 I guess. but the winner was heavy chalk.

[Hosshead]

If you are playing from home ATR Pro is a great utility. It gives the range of place and show payoffs color coded for over and underlays. Also has several great metrics including overlayed and underlayed exactas, tracks per minute odds changes, etc. 30 day free trial and $99 per year.

http://www.homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

Works best if you have a phonebet account because they have the best data. I'm not sure how well it works with other data sources.

ATR is a handy thing to have.
Phonebet gets the data from the old "The Racing Channel", which was a great (free) website for odds/pools etc.
ATRPro also uses "Oneclickbetting" , which also gets data from "The Racing Channel".

From The Racing Channel :

"Effective Monday, January 19, 2004 The Racing Channel (TRC) changed to a subscriber based system FREE of charge to active account holders of:

Oneclickbetting.com
Phonebet.com
Colonialdowns.com
CDPhonebet.com

Those of you who are active account holders of these account wagering sites simply need to use their account number and zip code to enter and enjoy the benefits of this site."

Before they changed, I used to compare The Racing Channel's odds/pool changes to all the other betting sites, by switching back and forth at the last minute and comparing pool size and odds changes.
The Racing Channel was always ahead of the others.

[betovernetcapper]

Another vote for ATR