Who Ran Better: blocked vs. dumbass ride

[the_fat_man]

Never been an advocate of the trouble inside trip but even I took notice first time I watched the Chelokee race: GP 3-3-07 Race 5 , FOY day.

Chelokee is stopped big time (5+ lengths per the chart) just before they enter the turn and is still able to win the race. Of course, while he's getting stopped, the congenitally impatient Kent D, having taken For You Reppo off the rail, is now gunning him towards the leader on the outside, with Sightseeing following him, wider, and Sacrifice Bunt following those two. High Act still leads to this point but with all the action the race just about collapses and Chelokee is able to gain the last 1/16th and get up (staying inside) late.

Here's my chart for this:

I think this is a nice race to discuss from both a trip (trouble, position and timing) and pace perspective.

So, who ran better? (Needn't be the top 2)

[cj]

Generally, I don't consider blocked as bad, assuming at some point the horse gets out without it being too late. Being blocked just delays energy expenditure, which in many cases isn't a bad thing at all.

An impatient ride is much worse, as the horse is losing energy that can't be recovered later.

[maxwell]

The real problem with getting blocked is when the horse is "taken up" by the rider - especially in sprints. Not too many horses come back from that in sprints.

[the_fat_man]

Generally, I don't consider blocked as bad, assuming at some point the horse gets out without it being too late. Being blocked just delays energy expenditure, which in many cases isn't a bad thing at all.

An impatient ride is much worse, as the horse is losing energy that can't be recovered later.

Exactly, in most cases being blocked (especially on the inside) at a key point in the race is a good thing. Back in the '80's when I was watching alot of races, it became obvious after a while that the horses that were 'laying back' (in other words weren't bidding ---as strongly, or couldn't keep up, even) when the serious running was being done (usually on the turn) would win in most cases as they had more left than those bidding earlier.

What's infuriating is that most jocks ride as if the intent is to have the lead late turn (or turning for home) rather than at the wire --- or that having the lead there means you'll have it at the wire.


So, given the above, who ran better in the Tampa Derby, CJ?

[cj]

So, given the above, who ran better in the Tampa Derby, CJ?

I always thought AGS ran better, though that doesn't mean he'll run better in subsequent starts.

[the_fat_man]

I always thought AGS ran better, though that doesn't mean he'll run better in subsequent starts.

I did so initially, as well, cause he was outside throughout, closer, and bid first. But I'm left wondering whether SS's bid was too sharp and allowed AGS to recover for the stretch run. At the same time, Delightful Kiss had just run the 2nd fastest quarter of the race, and his half was faster than AGS's and SS's. (I realize he was slow early, with an excuse, however). Any wonder why AGS came back in the strech.

Thoughts?

[DanG]

Good observations FatMan & CJ…

Agree with the overrated “blocked” trips.

Tampa Bay Derby…

I saw the race live and AGS came back principally because Street Sense tired. Street Sense did not gallop out well and came back breathing like a locomotive. Having said that AGS could have gone around again. Perfectly understandable considering their respective conditioning coming in.

Quality effort from both colts far superior to the races current Grade-III status. :ThmbUp:


BTW / IMO: Before we hand out roses to Street Sense, he has given ground to the winner (or head-bob place horse) in now 4 of his six starts. True his acceleration in the BC was visually and numerically awesome, but IMO he caught a conveyor belt that day.

Clearly a class animal, but in no way is he bullet proof.

[the_fat_man]

Good observations FatMan & CJ…

Agree with the overrated “blocked” trips.

Tampa Bay Derby…

I saw the race live and AGS came back principally because Street Sense tired. Street Sense did not gallop out well and came back breathing like a locomotive. Having said that AGS could have gone around again. Perfectly understandable considering their respective conditioning coming in.

Quality effort from both colts far superior to the races current Grade-III status. :ThmbUp:


BTW / IMO: Before we hand out roses to Street Sense, he has given ground to the winner (or head-bob place horse) in now 4 of his six starts. True his acceleration in the BC was visually and numerically awesome, but IMO he caught a conveyor belt that day.

Clearly a class animal, but in no way is he bullet proof.

I definitely agree: the horse is not bullet proof. Then again, nothing else out there is either.

Breathing hard, first time back, considering the move he made is not extraordinary. Now, does he improve off this, is the key question.

I think the BC path theory has been overemphasized: not just about where he was on the track but WHEN he made his move, as the race, full of some nice horses, completely fell apart. I think TIMING is superordinate to position, all other things being equal.

I noted on another thread that, significant, for me, was that Johnny V UNCHARACTERISTICALLY did not abuse AGS in the stretch --- supporting your contention that he could've gone around again.

As for SS giving way when he gets the lead: could it be that he's moved too soon in his races? Certainly the case in the Lane's End (he got the double whammy there --- moved too soon and was stupidly wide).

[DanG]

FatMan…

I must say you are one of the leading critics of riders I’ve ever come across.

You make many interesting observations and obviously have excellent concentration watching races. IMO: If you owned / trained horses I think you would go through riders faster than my X went through shoes.

[Robert Fischer]

So, who ran better? (Needn't be the top 2)


Chelokee was probably shuffled back as much as he was checked. For You Reppo lost a length or two with a poor start. If Kent had got him to relax a little more it would have helped. Maybe a bit premature he did get FYR into a winning position, Chelokee just had enough late to run him down.

a rough draft version of my Pace Quality has the race at 1:11.19 for 6f which is fairly fast for this class of horses(depending on how good you think they are...). Chelokee benefited from the shuffle.
For comparison The FOY i had at 1:10.16(very honest pace) , with the Tampa Derby's 6f Pace Quality(8.5f race)@1:12.58(class horses galloping)

[Robert Fischer]

Worried a little about Street Sense and timing as well...
The move in the Tampa Derby was just about perfect. He left his horse with some running to do in the stretch, but it would have taken a lot to beat him. Any Given Saturday came again, but Street Sense kept the head in front, even after they crossed the wire for the few strides i could see.

The rail doesn't always open, and having to check hard after starting an explosive move, as opposed to Chelokee's shuffle back/check can be catastrophic. Hard to tell for me at this point. Would a forwardly paced winning threat(pace quality :D ) adversely affect Any Given Saturday? (moreso than Street Sense?)

[DanG]

For comparison The FOY i had at 1:10.16(very honest pace) , with the Tampa Derby's 6f Pace Quality(8.5f race)@1:12.58(class horses galloping)
Robert…

In the Tampa Bay Derby you allude to 1:12.58 as the “pace”. Are you referring to Street Sense adjusted?

The pace of the race was 1:12.03 and was the third fastest 6f of the last 169 at the distance leading to a track record.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert…

In the Tampa Bay Derby you allude to 1:12.58 as the “pace”. Are you referring to Street Sense adjusted?

The pace of the race was 1:12.03 and was the third fastest 6f of the last 169 at the distance leading to a track record.


I am trying to do something using the pace of the majority of the win probability using seconds per length. (pace quality)
In a real begining stage right now. For a crude experiment I used top 3 ml for FOY and Chelokee race, used only SS and AGS for the Tampa Derby(i felt they were near the same 70% win plateau...). I tried it with 5.5 feet/second to start.

[DanG]

Ok…Thanks Robert,

Best of luck with your quest!

[the_fat_man]

FatMan…

I must say you are one of the leading critics of riders I’ve ever come across.

You make many interesting observations and obviously have excellent concentration watching races. IMO: If you owned / trained horses I think you would go through riders faster than my X went through shoes.

I'm a perfectionist. I realize that theory and practice are distinct, however.

When you watch alot of races and come to the slow realization that seemingly insignificant things can cost a horse victory, it gets a bit difficult to be objective.

Look at the Tampa Derby, for example. As seems to be the case for just about every outside (or inside) horse: Delightful Kiss, ducked out badly at the start; then, he's immediately gunned, if you will, diagonally towards the inside. Now, to the jock's credit, he took the rail inside BUT the extra effort used getting there quickly compromised his trip a bit. Obviously, he was only 3rd best anyway.

I can deal with physical deficiencies --- for example, I know that Channing Hill will not finish strong in the lane and thus lose alot of races a stronger finisher would win --- but the general philosophy is just wrong. There's such a focus on rushing. Every so often, there's a race where a jock just sits and moves at the last possible instance; and it's a thing of beauty. And the best thing about good rides is that they're much less taxing on the horses.

[the_fat_man]

Chelokee was probably shuffled back as much as he was checked. For You Reppo lost a length or two with a poor start. If Kent had got him to relax a little more it would have helped. Maybe a bit premature he did get FYR into a winning position, Chelokee just had enough late to run him down.

a rough draft version of my Pace Quality has the race at 1:11.19 for 6f which is fairly fast for this class of horses(depending on how good you think they are...). Chelokee benefited from the shuffle.
For comparison The FOY i had at 1:10.16(very honest pace) , with the Tampa Derby's 6f Pace Quality(8.5f race)@1:12.58(class horses galloping)

You pace fig guys have the world by the nuts.

Your program pumps out a figure and BINGO, instant understanding of the race.

I actually need to look at (sometimes confusing) diagrams and watch the race (many times over).

[Tom]

1. Yes, we do.
2. Not at all like that. Not even close.
3. Optional, not requried.

Thanks for asking.:jump:

[Valuist]

Generally, I don't consider blocked as bad, assuming at some point the horse gets out without it being too late. Being blocked just delays energy expenditure, which in many cases isn't a bad thing at all.

An impatient ride is much worse, as the horse is losing energy that can't be recovered later.

I agree 100%. It seems as if track announcers view this as the worst possible trip (and often saying somebody is having a "dream trip" after racing 3 wide around the first turn). Horses can see the traffic in front of themselves and do delay the energy expenditure. I think one of the best trips possible is the so-called "behind a wall of horses" when the field is turning for home with 3-4 horses across the track and another is right behind them waiting for roon. More often than not, that horse gets room and goes on to win.

[OTM Al]

One caveat. Totally agree that being blocked is not bad if the horse has been sitting there all along, but it is a bad thing if the jock has already started his run. Most horses can't handle the start-stop-start when it comes to being let loose. Those that can are worth keeping an eye on though doubt you'll ever be able to make much money on the most of them

[Valuist]

One caveat. Totally agree that being blocked is not bad if the horse has been sitting there all along, but it is a bad thing if the jock has already started his run. Most horses can't handle the start-stop-start when it comes to being let loose. Those that can are worth keeping an eye on though doubt you'll ever be able to make much money on the most of them

True, but that trip is really more of a check or severe steady, than being blocked.