So.........

[the_fat_man]

It's incredibly bleak out in NYC.

So, I'm here, doing some research for tomorrow's San Felipe.

And I do the FAT chart for the San Raphael and I notice that GRapelli closed significantly late.

Then I watch the replay and see that the horse is actually running very well late in the lane (after GG got that adjust the reins and finally hit him right handed thing down).

So I do some more research. And I see that, at Keeneland, per the charts, he ran wide and also ran more distance than the winner in each of his races. (In one of which, against Zanjero, he made what appears to be a very sharp, middle move.) And probably was a good bet when they finally added blinkers.

While checking distance covered, I noticed that in the 10/27 race, Sacrifice Bunt, breaking from the 11 post, ran ~39 more feet than the winner while running 2nd (Rapelli ran 22.4 ft more than the winner while finishing 4th)

So, it hits me, that I should look up Sacrifice Bunt's next race. Yeah, 1/12/07 GP, winner at 11.80 to 1. Doesn't it suck when things just fall in place (after the fact).

[john del riccio]

It's incredibly bleak out in NYC.

So, I'm here, doing some research for tomorrow's San Felipe.

And I do the FAT chart for the San Raphael and I notice that GRapelli closed significantly late.

Then I watch the replay and see that the horse is actually running very well late in the lane (after GG got that adjust the reins and finally hit him right handed thing down).

So I do some more research. And I see that, at Keeneland, per the charts, he ran wide and also ran more distance than the winner in each of his races. (In one of which, against Zanjero, he made what appears to be a very sharp, middle move.) And probably was a good bet when they finally added blinkers.

While checking distance covered, I noticed that in the 10/27 race, Sacrifice Bunt, breaking from the 11 post, ran ~39 more feet than the winner while running 2nd (Rapelli ran 22.4 ft more than the winner while finishing 4th)

So, it hits me, that I should look up Sacrifice Bunt's next race. Yeah, 1/12/07 GP, winner at 11.80 to 1. Doesn't it suck when things just fall in place (after the fact).

I think Grapelli has the best chance of running down COBALT BLUE but there is NO pace in that race and he will be offly hard to run down if he can relax a little bt early.

John

[the_fat_man]

Assuming they can stetch the sprinter out without a problem.

But clearly, a closing style, Grapelli was back 15+ lengths at one point in the San Rafael, is not exactly suited for this track.

Damn, that field is weak.

[JustRalph]

any chance the 1 horse softens up cobalt?

[Tee]

IMO Level Red won't let Cobalt Blue run off by himself.

[the_fat_man]

Cobalt Blue got a pretty nice setup last out and was extended to win.

[Robert Fischer]

Cobalt Blue has some potential for talent. He may well be forced to the pace in the SF. O'neill has been pushing this horse and he should be fit, but there are a number of game competitors in this small field. Interesting to see how much he trys to rate a slow pace. Or if he is content with a middle move(he could run away with a middle move as well).




Air Commander is a pure router and has a nice stalking/pressing style. One scenario is Air Commander+ Level Red wearing down Cobalt Blue early and AC dueling Level Red late.
Aaron Gryder is a perfect fit for Level Red.

Grapelli has always never struck me as that great of a horse. The field for the San Rafael was pretty soft. He is consistent and should be in shape.

Dee Rain may compete with Grapelli for the the trifecta

[the_fat_man]

I don't know these horses as all.

Hard to believe that they're better than the San R field (or any higher than allowance field), however.

I'd like to think that Notional would work this group over.

[Indulto]

I don't know these horses as all.

Hard to believe that they're better than the San R field, however.

I'd like to think that Notional would work this group over.I hope this is the start of your weekly column. It's not time to bet until the the fat man sings! :D

[Robert Fischer]

Notional had an easy time of the San Rafael. Tenfold is a horse that was well thought of, he looks great but he is rank and doesn't want to rate.
I was a little hesitant to back Notional going into the Risen Star, but he ran a good race and would have been tough to beat even without the spill "marring" the race, and interfering with Circular Quay.

[the_fat_man]

I hope this is the start of your weekly column. It's not time to bet until the the fat man sings! :D

I'm trying to slowly motivate some more interest in the game (for myself).

Of course, there's always some pain in the ass thing that gets in the way.

Like, in the chart below, I don't have the stretch fractional split (7F) cause
USUALLY there is no stretch split for mile races. Unless, of course, SA or OAK or some other recalcitrant track is involved. Which means adding more code.

Notional might've handled the pacesetter but I still like the way GRapelli was striding in the lane. I realize his style is not ideal for the west coast.

[john del riccio]

any chance the 1 horse softens up cobalt?

anything can happen when the gates open, i just can't see it.

JOhn

[the_fat_man]

Air Commander is a pure router and has a nice stalking/pressing style.

I think his last at 9F gives him a bit of an edge. He's fast enough to stay close and has the bottom to finish well.
I like the way he was handled last time out by GG (confidently and winning in hand).

GG made the wise choice.

Too low for a bet, however. (probably)

[jotb]

Hello All:

This certainly is a weak Grade 2 when you have 2 horses in the race that cracked their maidens for a tag (TAP IT LIGHT and DEE RAIN). Tap it light's other win was on the turf. Dee Rain has had several opportunities to crack the ALWN1X but has failed to do so. Cobalt Blue stetching out off the 6 month layoff win and that race does not seem to be a key race. Who has Level Red beat? He beat Dee Rain twice and he is not much considering he broke his maiden for 50k. Air Commander is a contender and should get a good trip. Garret Gomez stays aboard but the only knock with him is he is coming back on 13 days which is something he has never done. Lastly, we have Grapelli coming back from a 2 month layoff but should be tight enough with 5 works on his tab. Pletcher has awesome stats 25% with horses coming back off 2 months but there is another important factor today and that's the addition of blinkers. I remember when he ran at Kee. the day he finished 4th. He rallied and when he hit the 1/8 pole he poked a head in front and it seemed like he didn't know what to do after that. His head was cocked towards the grandstand and I remember saying this horse needs the blinkers. I think this will help tremendously today. He will keep his mind on business. I think there will be enough pace in the race for him to make that late run he is use to.

Best regards,
Joe