Triple Crown Prep Charts

[the_fat_man]

Below, are my charts of what I believe to be key prep races for this year's Triple Crown.

Now, these charts are NOTHING MORE than a linespoints representation of the race calls. As such, there are no adjustments whatsoever.
While trivial in a land of numbers and high tech, I do believe that they're useful in (instantly) showing how a particular race was run.

At the bottom are (leader) splits at each call; at the right is a legend showing program number, horse name, post position, and break position.

I've also tried to make these as readable as possible by focusing on the 'key' horses of each race; as such, I've narrowed the y-axis in some cases ---where lines are touching the upper boundary of the y-axis, lengths behind have exceeded that boundary.

The order is as follows:

1)Lanes' End Breeder's Futurity
2) Champagne
3) Juvenile
4) Hollywood Futurity
5) Holy Bull

[the_fat_man]

Continuing:

6) Sham
7) Fountain of Youth
8) Robert B Lewis
9) Louisiana Derby

I'm missing a few (minor) ones (well, the Risen Star and the Tampa prep are not minor) ---either I felt the races weren't of note or I just didn't have the chart.

[bigmack]

I like em Big Man. Visually I'd like to see you snub up the Y axis so the chart in total takes up half the vertical space it currently does. Nice concept.

[the_fat_man]

I can adjust to whatever size I need in terms of y and x-axis length and 'tick' number. I'm trying to capture as much of the race as possible, including the laggers, and, for my purposes, 1/2 length intervals work best.

thanks

[Tom]

Neat charts - thanks for sharing.

[Indulto]

tfm,

For those of us who may be visually challenged or not visionaries like yourself -- and may not be able to view (much less appreciate) the finer points of your graphic artistry -- please provide a verbal description of how a FAT CHART is most effectively used in the handicapping process, and how to compare and/or integrate performances by the same horse on different charts.

Thank you.

[the_fat_man]

Forgot the Gotham

[the_fat_man]

tfm,

For those of us who may be visually challenged or not visionaries like yourself -- and may not be able to view (much less appreciate) the finer points of your graphic artistry -- please provide a verbal description of how a FAT CHART is most effectively used in the handicapping process, and how to compare and/or integrate performances by the same horse on different charts.

Thank you.

What a FAT CHART is meant to do is give a quick running line of the race. Even if I were to use the BRis charts in PP format, I still wouldn't get this quick/clear a picture of the race. Those using figures with adjustments for lengths at each call get the same information, without the visual.

Now, check out what they're doing at the Hong Kong Jockey club site:
I can't attach this image it's too large. Check the race position photo in this link: http://www.hkjc.com/english/racing/Results.asp

I like it but I can't follow the horses from split to split as quickly. So, in this case, the abstraction is too close to the object itself.

My intent for these charts is to use them as trip precursors. I look at them before the race, get a sense of where the horses are at each call, and can then save myself some time tripping.

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbUp: brilliant

[bigmack]

fm - I'd also consider the H name at the end of the line. Saves the viewer from making the connection by color.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/19.gif

[Tom]

Really good visual shapshot of the pace of the race.
I went and did a bunch of Fat Charts (love that name!) for Aqu and you can pick out fast paced races clearly - and patterns as well.

[the_fat_man]

Really good visual shapshot of the pace of the race.
I went and did a bunch of Fat Charts (love that name!) for Aqu and you can pick out fast paced races clearly - and patterns as well.

Yeah, it seems fairly straightforward to pick out the horse(s) that went against the grain.

[the_fat_man]

what are you using to adjust these, Mack?

[bigmack]

what are you using to adjust these, Mack?
I think you have them set-up with a transparent back fm. I brought it into Painter 9 and created the black back.

[the_fat_man]

I think you have them set-up with a transparent back fm. I brought it into Painter 9 and created the black back.

I can set the background color. But moving the names from the legend to the end of the lines might not be doable with my program. (Although, I've already thought of a hack.) It's a nice touch, as there's additional information I'd like to include in the legend for the next level graph.

This is only the first step: next, going to experiment with two axes and mixed graphs.

[bigmack]

Are you able to generate 'em automatically or do they require manual input?

[the_fat_man]

It won't work. I'm using a module and only numeric values can appear on the grid. There's an option to show the numeric value at each point but no way of inserting text there.

I (pretty much) auto generate them. Takes a minute or so for each card.

[JPinMaryland]

Really nice stuff here, Fat Man. I guess you've given up the telescope on top of the bleachers approach?

[bobphilo]

Fat Man,

Well done. I like to be able to see in a graphical presentatation where every horse is, in terms of beaten lengths, at every stage of a race. Brisnet is doing somthing similar with its charts based on beaten lengths from the leader, just like the running lines in the PP, rather than merely from the horse immediatly in front. Your work shows this graphically.
The only thing I would add is some indication of whether the raw fractional times listed are fast or slow relative to the final time to combine with the beaten lengths info, but I'm just nit-picking here.

Bob

[bigmack]

The only thing I would add is some indication of whether the raw fractional times listed are fast or slow relative to the final time to combine with the beaten lengths info, but I'm just nit-picking here.
That's what I wanted to recomend as well, fm. Good idea bobphilo. Ah, what the hell - You too bigmack. :D

[the_fat_man]

Fat Man,


The only thing I would add is some indication of whether the raw fractional times listed are fast or slow relative to the final time to combine with the beaten lengths info, but I'm just nit-picking here.

Bob

I don't use speed or pace figures, so there's no way for me to adjust. My feeling is that I can readily figure out the pace from looking at the action between splits. I'm more concerned with what's happening in THIS race, rather than how these splits compare to other races of the same type. (Perhaps a flawed position---remains to be seen.)

And these aren't meant to be standalones but just a first step to a more comprehensive (and thus time/labor intensive) trip handicapping process.

I'm sure that others will probably revise these charts ---the concept is simple enough and just a matter of personal tailoring. Of course, unless one automates the process (simple enough if you write code) they could be a pain to produce.

For those who might be interested, I'm open to TRADing these (single races per file, at this point in the process).

[the_fat_man]

Tampa Bay and Rebel are attached.

Big :ThmbUp: to the longhaired gelding for completing that cheap (but easy) triple.

[Indulto]

...Big :ThmbUp: to the longhaired gelding for completing that cheap (but easy) triple.I thought geldings were completely cheapened by their shorthairs. ;)

[the_fat_man]

San Felipe

[the_fat_man]

Lane's End

Lengths behind for the final call of the horses off the chart:

~ 18; 23; 29; 66

[the_fat_man]

Florida Derby

Splits: 23.05 46.78 70.82 95.92 109



Skip Away splits: 23.33 46.86 70.68 96.36 109.7

[shanta]

TFM,
the charts look very good.

Can they be adjusted to show positions and positional moves during the race instead of beaten lenghts?

Richie

[DanG]

Nice charts FM…

One observation that is NOT meant to inflame…

Your much more of a pace player than I think you even realize. Your charts give you a nice visual representation of the energy flow of a race.

The CJ’s, HSH’s, Woodside’s, HTR players (among many others) are doing and offering the same approach. They just represent the data in various formats. I’m not going to get into the lack of variants in the fractions you list that I assume your drawing conclusions from.

Really neat stuff…thanks for sharing! :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

looking at the FLA Derby, I like the lines on Imawildandcrazyguy. That would say to me drop the horse in class and he could be very tough. (not exactly a revelation)

Cobalt Blue looked pretty nice in that San Felipe. Those were two professional horses he held off. The fact that he rated and the times were honest says he is pretty good. Hasn't run his best race yet.

[the_fat_man]

Nice charts FM…

One observation that is NOT meant to inflame…

Your much more of a pace player than I think you even realize. Your charts give you a nice visual representation of the energy flow of a race.

The CJ’s, HSH’s, Woodside’s, HTR players (among many others) are doing and offering the same approach. They just represent the data in various formats. I’m not going to get into the lack of variants in the fractions you list that I assume your drawing conclusions from.

Really neat stuff…thanks for sharing! :ThmbUp:

Thanks for noticing, Dan

I've argued, in the past on this forum, that pace figures are quantified trips.
(In the sense that I use 'trips'.)

So, when I trip a race, while I'm interested in trouble lines, I'm more interested in what a horse is doing in relation to what's happening in the race; in other words, given the pace/shape of the race.

And even though I don't use adjustments of any sort, I do look at the splits for the day, and I would think that patterns (race types) evident in other approaches are evident in mine as well--- obviously in a different format.

It would be interesting, at some point, to compare how the different race types manifest themselves in different 'systems'.

[the_fat_man]

TFM,
the charts look very good.

Can they be adjusted to show positions and positional moves during the race instead of beaten lengths?

Richie

The charts provide position and lengths for each call. I've chosen to use the latter for these graphs.

If by position you mean the former (1st, 2nd, etc.) then YES.

[shanta]

The charts provide position and lengths for each call. I've chosen to use the latter for these graphs.
If by position you mean the former (1st, 2nd, etc.) then YES.

That's exactly what I meant.

Is it possible to post up 1 or 2 of these or is the switchover work involved too much. I really have no clue man.

This is very nice work FM. You might be lazy but your sh** is tight :)

Richie

[bobphilo]

I've argued, in the past on this forum, that pace figures are quantified trips.
(In the sense that I use 'trips'.)

.
Beyer has the same belief when he says that pace cannot be precisely quantified and he deals with extreme pace variations as types of trips.

I see some merit in that. While I believe that it is possible to quantify pace and theoretically possible to quantify it’s effects, the relation between changes in velocity and energy is a complicated one, making it very difficult to quantify – mainly because the relation is exponential rather than a simple linear one.

I tend to use pace figures qualitatively to identify one aspect of a good or bad trip (pace), so I know in what context the horse’s final figure was earned, rather than using them to come up with a precise adjusted figure.


Bob

[the_fat_man]

That's exactly what I meant.

Is it possible to post up 1 or 2 of these or is the switchover work involved too much. I really have no clue man.

This is very nice work FM. You might be lazy but your sh** is tight :)

Richie

I can do that and will when I get a chance.

You are aware that the charts, as they are, show the positions (and lengths behind).

[the_fat_man]

Here's the Florida Derby BY POSITION only.

[misscashalot]

I like your charts. I used a few of them with the standard DRF charts. Together I really get a good picture of speed; and what it means. Good Fatman

[the_fat_man]

Thanks.

I'm interested as to how Shanta will use these positional charts.

[46zilzal]

Here's the Florida Derby BY POSITION only.
without the yardstick of pace, what does this sample errored assessment mean?

[shanta]

FM,

ok let's start with the "best athlete" in THIS race.

That happens to be the WINNER Scat Daddy.

In MANY races it is NOT so automatic.Matter of fact the winner is often NOT the best athlete but "trips out" in 1 form or another. My opinion anyway. However THIS race and matchup leaves no doubt.


1) He is the ONLY horse in the race to gain POSITION from the first fraction to the 4f mark. He did this while sitting himsefl 4th at the 1st fraction not 8th or 9th. So this guy breaks well enough and the initial 1/4 to the 1/2 mile gains a postion from 4th to 3rd. NO ONE else in the race "moves" during this stage. SD is already REACTING to the pace and doing it from a fairly forward position.

Passing horses is expending units of energy available.

I used arrows and circled pace of race and positions to show this.

2) Now SD makes a QUICK positional SECOND move going from 3rd to 1st after the 6f mark to the stretch call. I marked this with "boxes" around his positions.

A "quick" mover is one who gains at least TWO positions call to call. The others are simply grinders as can be seen by looking at the ones above SD. NOT the type of closer or "other than early" horse I would put money on.

The only other quick mover is the runnerup Notional. BUT look at his WHOLE line. He did NOTHING but sit until after the 6f mark of the race. He did make a quick move also but it was into a rather pedestrian pace of race ( 6f -sc) and he had NOT moved earlier.

some other notes from what you show here:
1) "Adore" if an early/presser type will not win when facing EITHER
a) Stormello
b) 23-46.3 - 1st fraction and 2c early horse. Look at the complete COLLAPSE that occured at the 6f mark.

2) the 3rd pace finisher LOST position during arguably the fastest part of the race early on. Then couldnt muster anything til just before the finish.

3) Stormello has to be evaluated form cycle wise. If you believe he was supposed to be "on" for this race then he is another early who will be up against it for the win IF todays 1st fraction and 1c are repeated.

These are all just my opnions and when looking at one race YOUR trip work,watching races etc etc all will contribute greatly to the overall eval.

IF you were to have a SERIES of these charts available for horse to see the postional reactions vs various paces now a much more accurate picture will show when ONLY looking at just these charts.

Beaten lenghts NEVER enter the picture. They don't have to. If a horse is chasing he is chasing whether 2 lenghts behind or 8.

IF you can make these up for each grade 1 and grade 2 prep at 8.5f and longer leading up to the derby that would be terrific man. The other races mean squat when it comes to finding the winner of the derby.

I also LOVE that the fractions you show are RAW and unadjusted.

hey if it is too much work or extra work that takes you outa your flow it's cool.

Thank you for taking the time to show it big man. You didn't have to do that.

Richie :)

[bigmack]

I can do that and will when I get a chance.

You are aware that the charts, as they are, show the positions (and lengths behind).
Hey Captain Corpulent - Why the switch from lengths behind to run pose?

[shanta]

Hey Captain Corpulent - Why the switch from lengths behind to run pose?

Because I asked if he could show me ONE race with this format. The old format will be returning to a picture house near you. Relax.
:)

Richie

[the_fat_man]

Spot on. It could've been me posting those comments (with different language, of course).

These charts are MUCH EASIER to produce than the others as they're autogenerated from results charts. It involved < 5 minutes of code altering.

What I'm working on presently, and haven't had the time as I've got some jobs to complete, is a single, large GIF file that has all the individual charts of a given day.

Here's what I'm working towards, more generally:

1) A large file, with all the days race charts AND

a) a 'summary', in tabular format, of the day's races showing the race splits and final time,

b) a 'bias' table with lengths behind at the 2F and 4F calls, as well as finish position.

a) and b) are already being utilized.

2) individual files for each horse (probably HTML) with charts for each of the races the horse runs in AND a tabular breakdown of the individual splits
This will get bulky but I'll be able to open a file and look at the history of the horse. The good thing about this is, once I program it, I can just open the file and append to it. This is trivial to program. 5 minutes and I can add this.

Once again, my motivation for doing these charts is to save time trip handicapping. I can get the shape of the race from the charts; see exactly which horses ran and which didn't; then look for more detailed info in the replays. This cuts my work in half --easily.

Now, if you can't generate these yourself, as I mentioned above, I'm open to TRADING them.

**************

yeah, Mac

what he said

[bigmack]

Now, if you can't generate these yourself, as I mentioned above, I'm open to TRADING them.
How cumbersome is the generation? I have an '06 Chrysler 300 that I don't use much, is that what you mean by trade?

[the_fat_man]

Something '70's or '80's. Lugged, steel, Italian and
track. Full Campy track groupo.

[bigmack]

Something '70's or '80's. Lugged, steel, Italian and
track. Full Campy track groupo.
Fine. How many charts can I secure for a late 70's Atalia? I rode it around Lake Arrowhead and don't use it no mo. Seriously, you can have it if you want

[the_fat_man]

Atala?

Track?

[bigmack]

Nah, it's a bike. I'd have to look at it next time I roll up to verfiy its "ridability". Anywho, what's with this trade thing - what do you want?

I don't go all the way with just anyone. :D

[the_fat_man]

Here goes.

By POSITION for most of the major 3 year old preps.

Let me know if I've missed any.

[the_fat_man]

And the rest.