Top 3 M.L. faves

[BIG RED]

I have several questions I would like to ask the PA crowd about the three morning line faves stats, if anyone has them.

1] How often percentage wise do one of the 3 ml faves win?

2] Scratches question. If one of these get scratched, does the next ml one in line move up, or does it just go down to the two that are left? And which ever way this would be answered, is that reflected into the win% ?

3] What if there is more than 3? I seem to see this more and more today. For instance a mdn race with a m.l. of 3-1/4-1/5-1/5-1/5-1. Are these all counted as 3? or these are not counted at all, unless scratches bring it down to three?

I guess I'm just trying to get the win % of the 3 ml faves, with live scenerios added. It would be nice and simple if the win % I always hear is it's just the 3 in the a.m. period, but want to be certain.

Any response? TIA

[bobphilo]

I'll give you Scott's figures since he based his entire method is based on the first 3 choices. I think his figures are based on post time odds rather tham ML but the resultas should be similar, especially when the top 3 are the same in both - which is often.
1 of top 3 choices wins 67% of all races
At least one of top 3 runs first or second in 90% of races.
That's why he advocates place betting.

If one of the top choices scratches the others all move up. The probabilities have to add up to 100% so if you leave the same probablities to all the other runers when the favorite scratches, there would be 33% of races with no winner - which would be absurd. That why they have refigure the odds when a horse is scratched at the gate.

If 2 horses tie for 3rd then you have to just use the probability of the top 4, unless you have another method to break the tie.

Bob

[misscashalot]

His 67% is a bit low for first three bet choices winning

Ill repeat a previous post breaking down by gender and race age
NYRA
010291-030807 Total 38,151 Races

Female 2yr 2300 races
Fav $1.30 885 wins 0.384
2 2.96 485 0.210
3 4.76 338 0.146
4 7.07 195 0.084
5 9.91 159 0.069

F 3yr 3619
Fav 1.41 1272 0.351
2 2.97 781 0.215
3 4.52 560 0.154
4 6.62 388 0.107
5 9.43 248 0.068

F 3u 7463
Fav 1.39 2721 0.364
2 3.00 1604 0.214
3 4.70 1101 0.147
4 6.87 744 0.099
5 9.63 485 0.064

F 4u 3494
Fav 1.41 1238 0.354
2 2.97 757 0.216
3 4.37 559 0.159
4 6.64 367 0.105
5 9.31 266 0.076

Male 2yr 2546
Fav 1.29 950 0.373
2 3.13 556 0.218
3 4.99 346 0.135
4 7.13 263 0.103
5 9.80 167 0.065

M 3yr 4288
Fav 1.39 1466 0.341
2 3.03 908 0.211
3 4.49 626 0.145
4 6.76 463 0.107
5 9.29 349 0.081

M 3u 9777
Fav 1.42 3446 0.352
2 3.04 2114 0.216
3 4.59 1481 0.151
4 6.67 991 0.101
5 9.41 682 0.069

M 4u 5664
Fav 1.51 1893 0.334
2 3.00 1168 0.206
3 4.40 927 0.163
4 6.35 607 0.107
5 9.16 414 0.073

[njcurveball]

You are missing the key factor, FIELD SIZE!

The top 3 horses may win 75% in short fields and less than 60% in full fields.


Jim

[misscashalot]

You are missing the key factor, FIELD SIZE!

The top 3 horses may win 75% in short fields and less than 60% in full fields.


Jim

I missed nothing. this is an overall average. I have the figures youre talking about; yes youre correct that the smaller the field the higher the win percentage for the first 3.