eddessaknight
03-12-2007, 05:19 PM
misscashalot,
Kindly indulge my inexperienced racing naiveté, but do these input factors help or relate to the aforementioned 6th Choice opportunity by Prof Richard Nash? (reposted below)
previously posted by: #1 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=362670&postcount=1) misscashalot (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=3824)
Favs won .355 of all races
Race 1 .336 winning favs
Race 2 .359
Race 3 .387
Race 4 .356
Race 5 .357
Race 6 .369
Race 7 .360
Race 8 .350
Race 9 .328
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Winning post positions for the past 44 races at Aqu Inner dirt ending Mar 7
all distances
1- 3 wins
2- 5
3- 5
4- 9
5- 3
6- 8
7- 5
8- 4
9- 2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thank you in advance for consideration and all earnest replies-
"You could be walking around lucky, and not even know it."
~Let It Ride
eddessaknight :)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
I am sharing the very simple straightaway and unabridged 6th Choice, no obligations of course, but I do welcome all constructive reponses that can be shared with the interested readership.
Sixth Choice:
I would go crazy betting one of these mechanical money movers, but if they work for you, I think that's great. I would, however, be skeptical about the one you propose here. In my experience fooling around with the tote board, your advice tends to direct attention directly at what I consider the weakest part of the field (ie, 3d betting choice). The problem with chalk (as we talk about a lot) is that it wins often but doesn't pay enough. By the time you get to 3d choice, there is a significant drop off in win percentage, but nothing like a compensating increase in price. For the very reasons you mention (being touted by selection services and program selections) third-choice odds are often quite low and seldom very high. Which leads me to my suggestion in response to your request: If you are going to do a mechanical watch-the-odds kind of play (where all the excitement comes before the race as you watch the numbers on the board), try this one. Restrict your attention to fields of 9 or more. In those races, bet the SIXTH choice. That's it; it's simple, elegant; and based on the premise that: chalk players will divide their money between first- and second-choice, trying to get a winner; and so-called value players will be disproportionately hammering third- and fourth-choices in hopes of "beating the chalk." As a result, you can get a surprisingly high combination of value and win % looking beyond those four. And of course, you don't have to try and figure out at three minutes to post how the final betting is going to push around the odds on those 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 horses. The wrinkle here is that you are looking to bet the clear sixth choice, and sometimes two horses will be very close together at that range (either 5th and 6th or sixth and seventh). My solution: where only two are close together, bet them both; if three are right together, pass the race. Sometimes when I am bored, I check out these results. Just to give you a sample from yesterday's Equibase charts, here's what would have happened at Fairgrounds. 2 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (10.90/1 and 10.80/1); bet 'em both: 6th choice wins, returning 23.80. 4 FG: sixth choice runs second, paying 12.40 to place (I have never checked the place payoffs on this, but I suspect it would be a better bet as win only) 5 FG: sixth choice wins, returning 19.00 (9.00 to place) 6 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (16.10/1 and 17.90/1); bet 'em both. 5th choice runs third, sixth choice nowhere. Total on the day: 4 races, 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show. Win bets: $12 returns $52.80. If you like watching the odds, try looking at this one.
Kindly indulge my inexperienced racing naiveté, but do these input factors help or relate to the aforementioned 6th Choice opportunity by Prof Richard Nash? (reposted below)
previously posted by: #1 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=362670&postcount=1) misscashalot (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=3824)
Favs won .355 of all races
Race 1 .336 winning favs
Race 2 .359
Race 3 .387
Race 4 .356
Race 5 .357
Race 6 .369
Race 7 .360
Race 8 .350
Race 9 .328
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Winning post positions for the past 44 races at Aqu Inner dirt ending Mar 7
all distances
1- 3 wins
2- 5
3- 5
4- 9
5- 3
6- 8
7- 5
8- 4
9- 2
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thank you in advance for consideration and all earnest replies-
"You could be walking around lucky, and not even know it."
~Let It Ride
eddessaknight :)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/statusicon/user_online.gif
I am sharing the very simple straightaway and unabridged 6th Choice, no obligations of course, but I do welcome all constructive reponses that can be shared with the interested readership.
Sixth Choice:
I would go crazy betting one of these mechanical money movers, but if they work for you, I think that's great. I would, however, be skeptical about the one you propose here. In my experience fooling around with the tote board, your advice tends to direct attention directly at what I consider the weakest part of the field (ie, 3d betting choice). The problem with chalk (as we talk about a lot) is that it wins often but doesn't pay enough. By the time you get to 3d choice, there is a significant drop off in win percentage, but nothing like a compensating increase in price. For the very reasons you mention (being touted by selection services and program selections) third-choice odds are often quite low and seldom very high. Which leads me to my suggestion in response to your request: If you are going to do a mechanical watch-the-odds kind of play (where all the excitement comes before the race as you watch the numbers on the board), try this one. Restrict your attention to fields of 9 or more. In those races, bet the SIXTH choice. That's it; it's simple, elegant; and based on the premise that: chalk players will divide their money between first- and second-choice, trying to get a winner; and so-called value players will be disproportionately hammering third- and fourth-choices in hopes of "beating the chalk." As a result, you can get a surprisingly high combination of value and win % looking beyond those four. And of course, you don't have to try and figure out at three minutes to post how the final betting is going to push around the odds on those 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 horses. The wrinkle here is that you are looking to bet the clear sixth choice, and sometimes two horses will be very close together at that range (either 5th and 6th or sixth and seventh). My solution: where only two are close together, bet them both; if three are right together, pass the race. Sometimes when I am bored, I check out these results. Just to give you a sample from yesterday's Equibase charts, here's what would have happened at Fairgrounds. 2 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (10.90/1 and 10.80/1); bet 'em both: 6th choice wins, returning 23.80. 4 FG: sixth choice runs second, paying 12.40 to place (I have never checked the place payoffs on this, but I suspect it would be a better bet as win only) 5 FG: sixth choice wins, returning 19.00 (9.00 to place) 6 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (16.10/1 and 17.90/1); bet 'em both. 5th choice runs third, sixth choice nowhere. Total on the day: 4 races, 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show. Win bets: $12 returns $52.80. If you like watching the odds, try looking at this one.