ABILITY TIME

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's was reading about the old angle's on karal's thread and wondered if anybody use ability time.?
Which is takeing turn time and adding it to the half time.example turn time 22.4 half time 45 ability time would be67.4 lower faster horse.

[Tom]

Typically, this is a good number at FL - whether track is playing early or late, it shows horse running good in the middle of the race,, be it the front running sustaining his speed or the presser making a good move.

[ridersup]

Gordon Pine, when he still put out a par time book, discussed ability times in precisely the same language you used. I used it for several weeks but didn't notice any difference in the horses I selected through my usual methods. Maybe as Tom says it might be a better tool at certain tracks.

[kenwoodall]

i like a good turn time!

[Jaguar]

Big Hit, Scott's book- with his extensive work on Ability Time is fascinating.

The problem is, I found Dan Pope's Stretch Run method far more effective. Nonetheless, even though I value Mr. Pope's insights tremendously, his method is almost 15 years old, and I don't use it any more- due to the "Kentucky Racing Syndrome", i.e., Banamine, Amicar, Clenbuterol, Ergonovine, Lidocaine, etc.

I believe you will find that a horse's connections are the key today.

When William Scott and Dan Pope did their work, only Oscar and one or two others were regularly using the Magic Money Juice.

Now they're all using it, even the Hall of Fame trainers. It's the nature of the game to try to win by any means necessary.

Years ago, handicapping horses was the name of the puzzle, today it's essential to handicap the money.

All the best,

Jaguar

[CapperLou]

Jaguar:

I've always been an advocate of William L Scott--he showed me how to win most of the time utilizing his handicapping--like anything else--you have to know when to play and pass and it only works at certain types of tracks.
I have never been able to find Pope's book. Where might I look for it?
And--you are right about the money---today it's all about money!!
What would YOU say is the best way to handicap the money?
Thanks for any assistance you can provide.

[Jaguar]

CapperLou, Dan Pope is still in operation from his home in Kansas City. One of our fellow posters put Mr. Pope's mailing address up a couple of weeks ago, so I'm sure a search will find it quickly.

Regarding handicapping a horse's connections(a one word translation of the statement:"A trainer who spots his horses correctly and makes his money from entering a fast, fit animal that is dropping in class, with the right jock in the irons".) the beautiful thing is that we no longer have to be concerned about workouts, training patterns, layoffs, form cycle charts, etc.

The tide of chemical enhancements that has swept over horse racing since the early 90's has forever altered this game.

Winning money in this "high overhead, losers are out of business" environment is no longer important. It's crucial.

Trainers are human and humans are creatures of habit. We find that certain trainers repeat successful moves, so we wait for them and grab the money.

If you have a chance to see a handicapping program using a strong trainer/jockey algorithm(such as used in Multi-Strats), you can make your own database and you're home free.

Alternatively, check out Liam Durbin's "conn" numbers every morning for MSP, Allowance, and Stakes races, in the tracks which he covers, in the free picks section of www.e-ponies.com.

Of course, here again, you have to make your own database.

Multi-Strats does it automatically, a big time saver.

This approach to handicapping will not give you many horses in the $7-$9 range. It will give you a slew of 8-5, 9-5, and 2-1 shots. Occasionally, the crowd makes a mistake and you will catch a bomb.

The beautiful thing about this approach is that statistically you will know when you are going to cash, and you cash nice and steady. At my age I don't want any surprises, I just want to cash a ticket. I'm happy to watch the younger guys shoot for the moon.

All the best,

Jaguar

[cato]

Okay, I'll bite. I am interested in programs that are strong on jockey/trainer connections. I've searched the archives and discovered that Multi-strats is dead. What other programs out there are decent with regard to jockey/trainer connections?
Assume I would not have the first clue about or or interest in doing a home grown database

Semi-related question: Has anyone had any success working with the trainer stat program/information put out by ______ (?)--touted by Cramer and available on HDW

Cheers, cato

[cato]

My last post referred to Ed Bain's trainer reports.

[cj]

Originally posted by Jaguar
...
I believe you will find that a horse's connections are the key today.

When William Scott and Dan Pope did their work, only Oscar and one or two others were regularly using the Magic Money Juice.

Now they're all using it, even the Hall of Fame trainers. It's the nature of the game to try to win by any means necessary.

Years ago, handicapping horses was the name of the puzzle, today it's essential to handicap the money...

Jaguar

I have to disagree with you on a few points Jaguar.

First, I and some I know do quite nicely and I could very rarely tell you who rides, let alone trains, any horse I bet.

Second, if you believe only a couple trainers were cheating in the 80s (Oscar's time), I'd beg to differ. Barrera may have been best at it, but I would suspect that just as many attempted to cheat back then as do now.

Finally, I'm not saying you can't win by focusing on connections, just that it isn't the only way. I'll stick to methods that produce price horses, not "a slew of 8/5, 9/5, and 2/1 shots."

CJ

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Originally posted by Jaguar

When William Scott and Dan Pope did their work, only Oscar and one or two others were regularly using the Magic Money Juice.

Now they're all using it, even the Hall of Fame trainers. It's the nature of the game to try to win by any means necessary.



Jaguar, just curious...do you believe that to be the case at smaller circuits as well? Can a trainer at Hoosier or Beulah really afford all those cocktails?

MP

[Rick]

CJ,

I agree with you. I don't look at trainers at all and only consider whether jockeys are minimally competent. You can still win by just handicapping the horses.

[hurrikane]

I have plays that are strickly trainer based. It pays quite nicely and I don't bet 2-1/9-5 or even 3-1.

I have plays that are based on advantage horses in races based on pace, ablilty, class?, and form. They also pay quite nicely.

Lots of way to play the game. If you put on blinkers you are not winning as much as you could.
If I were to hazard a guess I would say that the game...concerning trainers, jockeys and drugs...is much more honest now..many more eyes watching.

Thing is today you hear very quickly if a trainer or jock is suspended for an infraction....in the 70s if you didn't hang at the track every day and knew people you didn't know what was going on.
It's always in your face now so it appears to be more dishonest.

[Jaguar]

CJ, Maryland Paul,

In my enthusiasm at making a point about the importance of finding a "connections" edge in horse handicapping, I forgot to mention that- of course- any one particular angle has to be seen in the context of comprehensive handicapping.

When I handicap a card, I bring a tremendous amount of expert system and A. I. analytical power to bear on the task. Each horse's 10 most recent running lines, as well as the animal's connections, are rigorously examined.

However, since the trainer/jockey algorithm I'm using is so powerful, it has become a gateway to handicapping success for me and has helped me focus my game.

There are a zillion ways to play the horse game. I go to handicapping seminars, and I know guys who are winning with Winner's Circle, TB5, FastCapper, Thorobrain, Master Magician, HorseSense, etc.

Everybody finds a method that is congenial to them, and I say good luck to them. The only thing is, the game has changed so much that today the "connections" numbers do provide a nice edge, and it is sooo nice to have an edge.

Regarding doping, it's been going on for quite a bit since the 70's, but today it's Gonzo, out of control, grab everything you can and try to stay in business.

Sadly, we have naive handicappers who couldn't care less. The problem is that the bettor's are being robbed, and no one cares. Not even the bettors. Yet, if someone stole $5 from one of these bettors, on the street, that man would howl for the police. This is truly an upside-down Alice In Wonderland world we live in.

I never thought I would live to see the day when Hall of Fame Trainers are being set down, but this is how degraded this beautiful game has become.

Still the greatest game in the world, though.

All the best,

Jaguar