PDA

View Full Version : GOTHAM


Robert Fischer
03-09-2007, 08:49 AM
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_69158.pdf PPS

thoughts on the GOTHAM? :confused:



A ton of speed here. I have been waiting for Summer Doldrums to run back as a bet-against...

Not exactly the greatest play against, but has some angles.
He still gets the inner track and he has beaten several of today's foes.
Not sure if someone like Sir Whimsey or Longley will benefit from everyone contesting the pace.
Even if Doldrums does tire, hard to predict who takes this. It could simply go to the gamest of the speed horses as well.
How Sweet He Is is another closer, is improving, but likely not good enough to win here in this company.

OTM Al
03-09-2007, 09:22 AM
See how speed is holding on Saturday. There is going to be a big swing in temperature from Friday into Saturday and I've always believed that has a huge effect on the inner, so it isn't really worth making a pick right now.

Stevie Belmont
03-09-2007, 05:56 PM
Summer Doldrums will be in the area of 3/5 or a bit higher. His last was a block buster race, even if he does not run up to that last one, will be tough to beat. Also if he does run on the lead he will face pressure, so will see if he takes back a bit instead. Anyway you look at it, a tough play against it looks.

Two horses in here that have some upside. Mint Slewlep has some very nice works in prep for this and is shipping up. Big 6 panel work on the 2/23....

The other horse I actually like a bit is Longley. Missed some time after his maiden win at the Spa, but the nice work tab in January led to a big effort next out. Motion's horse ran well in that last race at Gulfstream behind Soaring By and Spin Master. A handy followed by a breeze. Stretches out here and could be ready to run a real nice one for good connections.


http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_69158.pdf PPS

thoughts on the GOTHAM? :confused:



A ton of speed here. I have been waiting for Summer Doldrums to run back as a bet-against...

Not exactly the greatest play against, but has some angles.
He still gets the inner track and he has beaten several of today's foes.
Not sure if someone like Sir Whimsey or Longley will benefit from everyone contesting the pace.
Even if Doldrums does tire, hard to predict who takes this. It could simply go to the gamest of the speed horses as well.
How Sweet He Is is another closer, is improving, but likely not good enough to win here in this company.

the_fat_man
03-09-2007, 06:04 PM
What a terrible field.

Makes last year's participants look like alltime greats.

46zilzal
03-09-2007, 06:20 PM
well there won't be a 1:33 2/5 tomorrow.

cj
03-09-2007, 06:23 PM
well there won't be a 1:33 2/5 tomorrow.

Especially since the race is a mile and a sixteenth.

46zilzal
03-09-2007, 06:25 PM
Especially since the race is a mile and a sixteenth.
you beat me to the punch as I was going to show just that and some good older times.
Proud Appeal - 1:33 3/5
Gone West - 1:34 3/5
Easy Goer - 1:32 2/5
Secretariat - 1:33 2/5
Lure - 1:35 3/5
Thirty Six Red - 1:33 4/5
Smokin Mel - 1:34 1/5
Red Bullet - 1:34 1/5

misscashalot
03-09-2007, 06:38 PM
Since Jan 1 on the Aqu Inner at 1-1/16 (The Gotham is 1-1/16) Heres a breakdown of winning post position, # of races having that post. There were 33 races


Post 1 (6 winners) 33
2 (11) 33
3 (5) 33
4 (1) 33
5 (3) 33
6 (4) 32
7 (2) 24
8 (1) 18
9 (0) 7
10 (0) 4
11 (0) 2

21/33 were won by horses being no worse than 2nd at any call according to chart. Winning post 6-7-8 were exclusively wired. #6 Wollaston Bay ML 12/1 has speed from the 6 hole to be dangerous. For the price ML 15-1 #5 Believeinmenow working well and the 6 furlong works 3Mar and 24Feb gets me to the windows with a few schekels.

Tee
03-09-2007, 09:18 PM
I'm interested to see how Wollaston Bay runs tomorrow.

Tom
03-10-2007, 09:00 AM
Misscashalot - thanks for the data.
Interesting point you bring up - combine RS with PP.
If horses can win from outside, do they have to be on the lead? Can closers win out of the 1 hole?

Something to look at next time I print out a track profile.

misscashalot
03-10-2007, 09:58 AM
Misscashalot - thanks for the data.
Interesting point you bring up - combine RS with PP.
If horses can win from outside, do they have to be on the lead? Can closers win out of the 1 hole?

Something to look at next time I print out a track profile.

My records which contain data from the charts show that at 1-1/16 for an outside post (5-outward) to win, they should be no worse than 2nd at any call.

I'm not looking for closers at 1-1/16 no matter their post.

I look for a runner who will be close up. Summer Doldrums can win, but for me he won't be worth the price. Im looking past him.

How good is Longley ML 9/2 or Wafi City ML 10-1?

I look towards Believeinmenow ML 15-1 and Wollaston Bay 12-1

Belieinmenow is particularly interesting due to his two 6 furlong works.

and Wollaston Bay is speed crazy and fires bullets. Can he take them all the way? At 12-1 he's worth a serious consideration.

Of course none of these will be around for the triple crown, but todays Gotham is a fun race and a cappers delight. Take a stance, get a hunch and bet a bunch.

Robert Fischer
03-10-2007, 10:52 AM
The more I look at this, I think that Summer Doldrums should be in a stalking/pressing position behind Wollaston Bay and possibly Wafi City. Luzzi will need to ride a smart race.

I like Sir Whimsey's chances of an in-the-money finish with the amount of extended sprinting that figures to take place. If I were more confident that Summer Doldrums would "bounce", than I would key Sir Whimsey second and third in trifectas.

john del riccio
03-10-2007, 10:59 AM
The more I look at this, I think that Summer Doldrums should be in a stalking/pressing position behind Wollaston Bay and possibly Wafi City. Luzzi will need to ride a smart race.

I like Sir Whimsey's chances of an in-the-money finish with the amount of extended sprinting that figures to take place. If I were more confident that Summer Doldrums would "bounce", than I would key Sir Whimsey second and third in trifectas.

Robert,

I'm not a worshiper of the bounce theory. SD's race 2 back was very good and that is good enough to beat this field. He got a golden trip on the covetee rail last out; agreed but he showed a flexible style in his allowance win.

McGaughlin is being awfully aggressive with WAFI CITY isn't he ? I have the utmost respect for him as a horsemen and I don't think he'd be putting this colt in here as an "experiment" . I don't like COWTOWN CAT or WOLLASTON BAY in this spot, they could duel each other in.

Good Luck,
JOhn

misscashalot
03-10-2007, 11:39 AM
Robert,

I'm not a worshiper of the bounce theory.

Good Luck,
JOhn

Right on. I always hated to hear Bounce. It was a catch all phrase that, to me, meant I don't know why he didnt fire, that the so called "experts" used to explain what they didnt know. Races set up differently. Conditioning makes or breaks a runner from one race to another. After a good race, a runner is in a different conditioning phase and meets others who are in a better phase, thus the "bounce". I shake my head when I hear an experienced bettor say, "Horse A beat horse B last time out, here they are again so Im betting A again." When the result is reversed they are perplexed.Thus the bounce theory. Very few players are versed in trainers methods and conditioning. I get my best prices when a horse wakes up due to conditioning. I study the last 3 works/races of every horse of the day.

46zilzal
03-10-2007, 11:45 AM
The bounce is real and it is usually after a hard fought race by three year old fillies. In the rest of them it is questionable.

misscashalot
03-10-2007, 11:47 AM
The bounce is real and it is usually after a hard fought race by three year old fillies. In the rest of them it is questionable.

46zilzal what is a bounce?

Robert Fischer
03-10-2007, 12:37 PM
on bounce - I do not really believe in an independent "bounce" factor. For me it is a shorter way of saying "today’s pace scenario, race setup, quality of competitors, running style, or ANY number of negative factors(including but not limited to rest/recovery/cycles,track,jockey).. will result in an what appears to be a lesser performance than last out".

In reference to Summer Doldrums in particular, i do agree with John that SD will need to run the type of race he ran two back.

46zilzal
03-10-2007, 12:39 PM
46zilzal what is a bounce?

A diminished performance coming right after a seriously overtaxing race. If the trouble line says "all out" and it is a three year old filly, they usually do not perform well next out unless there is a considerable amount of time to regenerate the conditioning lost in that strenuous race.

bobphilo
03-10-2007, 04:17 PM
1) Summer Doldrums - Ran huge in the Whirlaway. I don't expect a
bounce from a young developing 3YO.
2) Sir Whimsey
3) Wollaston Bay
4) Longley

Of course, a bounce is possible which is why I've boxed my top 3 in the Exacta

Bob

fouroneone
03-10-2007, 04:45 PM
wasnt this usually run on the outer?

Robert Fischer
03-10-2007, 05:25 PM
Pletcher was right about stretching Cowtown Cat out...
Slower fractions than I expected. Glad I didn't key Sir Whimsey 2nd/3rd in trifectas...

Tom
03-10-2007, 05:35 PM
wasnt this usually run on the outer?

....and at a mile.

I don't think anyone still considers this a serious Derby prep - more of a goal for lesser 3yos than a prep for better.

JPinMaryland
03-10-2007, 06:14 PM
Final times here dont look all that impressive I was interested in OTM Al's observation of time vs temperature. Except he didnt tell us which way to expect the time to change when it gets cold.

You out there, Al? Are you saying the cold temps will slow them down? unclear.

Kelso
03-10-2007, 11:54 PM
I study the last 3 works/races of every horse of the day.



Cash,
Do you look at the last 3 of each ... races and works ... or the last 3 in total, in whatever combination they might be? Do you limit your look at the "last 3" to within a fixed time frame as well ... i.e., not more than X days ago?

Thank you.

OTM Al
03-11-2007, 12:09 AM
I've always felt when the track gets cold it favors frontrunners even more than usual. When it is warm like today, chaos can ensue. It may be an all frontrunner day as the inner is want, but closers will have a much better chance.

The outcome of this race really surprised me though. I expected a hot pace with a couple good sprinters running their first route, but instead one grabbed the lead and slowed it way down. Cowtown was able to close into those soft fractions though. Just another race I lost $ on today.....

misscashalot
03-11-2007, 12:20 AM
Cash,
Do you look at the last 3 of each ... races and works ... or the last 3 in total, in whatever combination they might be? Do you limit your look at the "last 3" to within a fixed time frame as well ... i.e., not more than X days ago?

Thank you.

The last 3 in total no matter the length of days between activities.

NY BRED
03-11-2007, 11:40 AM
Misscashalot:


bounce= regreesion


sort of like, you just ran a mile in 5minutes, and your previous
attempts(in descending order) are 5 1/2 minutes 6 minutes,
9 minutes.


so , its about a half hour later after your 5 minute all time fastest
mile, and I offer you a half hour later 50k to beat that 5 minute time, knowing full
well you are muscle sore, out of breath(actually smoking a cigarette :D )

Chances are great you will go slower than Five minutes,(bounce factor)
but with my luck, you'll find a way to take my $$$


Ps bounce doesn't necessarily appliy to two year olds who demonstrate explosive speed figures

misscashalot
03-11-2007, 12:01 PM
Misscashalot:


bounce= regreesion


sort of like, you just ran a mile in 5minutes, and your previous
attempts(in descending order) are 5 1/2 minutes 6 minutes,
9 minutes.


so , its about a half hour later after your 5 minute all time fastest
mile, and I offer you a half hour later 50k to beat that 5 minute time, knowing full
well you are muscle sore, out of breath(actually smoking a cigarette :D )

Chances are great you will go slower than Five minutes,(bounce factor)
but with my luck, you'll find a way to take my $$$


Ps bounce doesn't necessarily appliy to two year olds who demonstrate explosive speed figures

Thanx Gary

But what if I stopped smoking and waited 28 days to try to beat my 5 min record?

Is the bounce factor off, or can it still apply?

JPinMaryland
03-11-2007, 04:56 PM
Okay htanks for that observation Al. Is this something you feel has to do w/ horse metabolism or is particular to AQU surface? So i.e. you would expect the same phenomenon all across the country, or it is just an AQU thing?

On the bounce. It is never going to be able to be quantifiable but it is very real because it seems beyond question that any horse can be wiped out for a season or even a career by one long extended drive....

You dont have to look at Thoro. figs or whatever. That's just an well known observation. At Belmont Stakes alone: Smarty Jones, Cavan, Tim Tam, Majetic Prince, Count Fleet, Charismatic were all Ky Derby champions whose career was very much ended by that race alone..

I think the emphasis on studying each race in particular and then saying this horse is 3rd race out or this race is the 4th race and then saying he will bounce is useless. One serious drive and they coudl be wasted but you have to observe the race..

misscashalot
03-11-2007, 05:19 PM
Okay htanks for that observation Al. Is this something you feel has to do w/ horse metabolism or is particular to AQU surface? So i.e. you would expect the same phenomenon all across the country, or it is just an AQU thing?

On the bounce. It is never going to be able to be quantifiable but it is very real because it seems beyond question that any horse can be wiped out for a season or even a career by one long extended drive....

You dont have to look at Thoro. figs or whatever. That's just an well known observation. At Belmont Stakes alone: Smarty Jones, Cavan, Tim Tam, Majetic Prince, Count Fleet, Charismatic were all Ky Derby champions whose career was very much ended by that race alone..

I think the emphasis on studying each race in particular and then saying this horse is 3rd race out or this race is the 4th race and then saying he will bounce is useless. One serious drive and they coudl be wasted but you have to observe the race..


Quote:Originally Posted by john del riccio
Robert,

I'm not a worshiper of the bounce theory.

Good Luck,
JOhn



Right on. I always hated to hear Bounce. It was a catch all phrase that, to me, meant I don't know why he didnt fire, that the so called "experts" used to explain what they didnt know. Races set up differently. Conditioning makes or breaks a runner from one race to another. After a good race, a runner is in a different conditioning phase and meets others who are in a better phase, thus the "bounce". I shake my head when I hear an experienced bettor say, "Horse A beat horse B last time out, here they are again so Im betting A again." When the result is reversed they are perplexed.Thus the bounce theory. Very few players are versed in trainers methods and conditioning. I get my best prices when a horse wakes up due to conditioning. I study the last 3 works/races of every horse of the day.
__________________
----------------------
...ya never really know

About bounce. I repeat above my earlier read on the subject

You left out what Secretariat did to SHAM

JPinMaryland
03-12-2007, 01:11 AM
Yes I agree, there is also another way to think about it...

In baseball, statistics geeks (sabermetrics) read Bill James who came up with the "plexiglass theory". His theory was that if the Braves won 90 ball games last year they are probably likely to not win as many this year.

And same thing with teams that lose more than 1/2; they are likely to win more. Now, the way I understood it was that these ball club were like random performing events, like bouncing balls. Just because you see them on the high end, they are probably just out performing, they havent made a real break through.

HOw he handled teams like the Yankees, that had sustained greatness, I forget, (James is never big on contraindications) but probably at some pt. you have to acknowledge that there really are real good teams. But for the average teams, they win a few more than 1/2; or lose a few more, its really no more than a random fluctuation.

Of course, the trick then, like in most things in life (think stock market investing) is to be able to figure out when a small upsurge means a real breakthrough vs a simple random fluctuation. My guess is that such prediction will never become quatifiable; we will always wonder about it.

Of course you can relate this to horses, some average horse runs out of its eyeballs on a given day because of: he was pointed for the race, he was on drugs, or whatever and of course the bounce theory will seem to have predicted the inevitable back to reality next race back..

So now we have a whole generation of believers in bounce theory and you cant talk them out it because of course, bounces happen. It's not a question of DO THEY HAPPEN but rather WHY DID IT HAPPEN?

My question to them is How do you explain Citation or Cigar or Spectacular Bid? WHen do they bounce?

misscashalot
03-12-2007, 03:38 AM
Yes I agree, there is also another way to think about it...

In baseball, statistics geeks (sabermetrics) read Bill James who came up with the "plexiglass theory". His theory was that if the Braves won 90 ball games last year they are probably likely to not win as many this year.

And same thing with teams that lose more than 1/2; they are likely to win more. Now, the way I understood it was that these ball club were like random performing events, like bouncing balls. Just because you see them on the high end, they are probably just out performing, they havent made a real break through.

HOw he handled teams like the Yankees, that had sustained greatness, I forget, (James is never big on contraindications) but probably at some pt. you have to acknowledge that there really are real good teams. But for the average teams, they win a few more than 1/2; or lose a few more, its really no more than a random fluctuation.

Of course, the trick then, like in most things in life (think stock market investing) is to be able to figure out when a small upsurge means a real breakthrough vs a simple random fluctuation. My guess is that such prediction will never become quatifiable; we will always wonder about it.

Of course you can relate this to horses, some average horse runs out of its eyeballs on a given day because of: he was pointed for the race, he was on drugs, or whatever and of course the bounce theory will seem to have predicted the inevitable back to reality next race back..

So now we have a whole generation of believers in bounce theory and you cant talk them out it because of course, bounces happen. It's not a question of DO THEY HAPPEN but rather WHY DID IT HAPPEN?

My question to them is How do you explain Citation or Cigar or Spectacular Bid? WHen do they bounce?

Thank you JP for your input. It is an interesting subject.

I think that believing in bounce, and being unable to understand the dynamics, therefore not being able to predict it (not being able to qualify it) is a weakness that causes the player to accept a loss without analysis and is defeatest. If the player looks towards the conditioning of the horse and compares it to the competition, he can come to terms with the whys and predictability of the phenomina. But this takes study and record keeping. How many, I wonder, keep a daily database of their tracks that includes unique data that is not compiled anywhere? Data like workouts, days between races and/or works; and other not-published information? All this is available in the charts and past performances. It is here that the answer to bounce is found.

Stevie Belmont
03-12-2007, 04:39 PM
Well if one does not believe the bounce than they probably don't pay much attention to form cycles either I would think. Some horses work up to a maxium efforts, while some can fire quite well off the bench for certain traniers. Horses that run big efforts sometimes in fact to come back to run not as well, and using a lot of energy in prior races does impact thier performance. You also have to look at class as well. Classier horses can hold thier form for longer periods of time. Horses that run huge efforts off the bench don't always follow up there efforts in future races. Horse are not machines, and taking into account how much a horse used in a particular race can impact their future performances. I think the bounce can be overrated, and I also thing there is some thing to it...Can't be totally dismissed at all...

Summer Doldrums ran a lousy race plain and simple. However in his prior race he had a the rail and the inside was the place to be...I just think he was overated off that effort, more so than any bounce that could have happened, and at the same time he worked at a good clip in that race, disposing of the foe late in the stretch....to win again , would show he was a quality 3 year old. I think he coule be a fine horse, just not a beast some thought he might be. Two big inner wins, and the rest was mediocre at best.

classhandicapper
03-12-2007, 07:14 PM
I think there are examples of consistent horses that ran an extremely fast race that probably had a physical reaction to the effort in their next start.

However, IMO, determining if a horse bounced is very dependent on measuring performances properly to begin with. A huge percentage of the time people say a horse bounced they aren't measuring the performances properly and a lot of the rest of the time the performance fluctuations are just mean reversion.

IMO, it requires an extremely comprehensive approach to measure single performances accurately. Unless you are actually doing that kind of thing you are going to be calling all sorts of things bounces that have nothing to do with physical reactions to fast races.

Summer Doldrums comes to mind. His fast race was on the lead from the rail on a biased AQU racetrack against a low quality group. The chances of him duplicating that figure in a more honestly run race were almost nil unless he improved further. Plus, despite everyone and his brother making his big win a fast race, I am on record elsewhere questioning the quality of those figures. If anything, the subsequent results Saturday raised some red flags about the quality of that fast race.

the_fat_man
03-12-2007, 08:30 PM
Summer Doldrums comes to mind. His fast race was on the lead from the rail on a biased AQU racetrack against a low quality group. The chances of him duplicating that figure in a more honestly run race were almost nil unless he improved further. Plus, despite everyone and his brother making his big win a fast race, I am on record elsewhere questioning the quality of those figures. If anything, the subsequent results Saturday raised some red flags about the quality of that fast race.


What's interesting is much was made about Lawrence the Roman's bias aided trips and how he had no shot against SD. And of course, SD takes advantage of the bias and cruises home. And all of a sudden HE's a horse.

But we're making things much too difficult. I'm hardly even a parttime player
but I did notice a few things recently.

1) Sam P runs a relatively dull race in the Holy Bull ---never remotely threatening

next time out, Sam P extends Great Hunter in the Cal stake

2) Cowtown Cat, breaks ontop then takes back and makes an early move into a fast pace against Adore the Gold. The horse is under pressure from the mid/late backstretch to the wire and hangs in there gamely. Adore the Gold, not much horse IMO (but a GOD when it comes to the Gotham field) comes back to run a very good effort in the FOY.

Now, what exactly was there to beat in the Gotham? And, where exactly does CC fit in within Pletcher's 3 year olds? Certainly not top tier.

And, SD, limping home on the wrong lead, just about said it all about his stock.

Needless to say, Class, you're too kind, too forgiving, of these crows.

P.S. I realize that CC got a very nice trip BUT he figured to.

bobphilo
03-12-2007, 09:08 PM
I think there are examples of consistent horses that ran an extremely fast race that probably had a physical reaction to the effort in their next start.

However, IMO, determining if a horse bounced is very dependent on measuring performances properly to begin with. A huge percentage of the time people say a horse bounced they aren't measuring the performances properly and a lot of the rest of the time the performance fluctuations are just mean reversion.

IMO, it requires an extremely comprehensive approach to measure single performances accurately. Unless you are actually doing that kind of thing you are going to be calling all sorts of things bounces that have nothing to do with physical reactions to fast races.

Summer Doldrums comes to mind. His fast race was on the lead from the rail on a biased AQU racetrack against a low quality group. The chances of him duplicating that figure in a more honestly run race were almost nil unless he improved further. Plus, despite everyone and his brother making his big win a fast race, I am on record elsewhere questioning the quality of those figures. If anything, the subsequent results Saturday raised some red flags about the quality of that fast race.

Absolutely agree that a horse’s performance, and all the factors that contributed to it, must be considered before the bounce label is applied. In the case of Summer Doldrums’ Gotham, he was hung 3-wide around both turns while Cowtown cat got a rail trip – as SD had in the Whirlaway. Considering that cost him about 4 lengths, his 2 ½ defeat does not look as bad. Throw in rail bias and his performance looks like less of a “bounce”.

Another interesting fact is that he beat Sir Whimsey by only about a length less than he did in the Whirlaway and the possibility must be considered that the figure for that race was too high to begin with that and both horses were not running much worse in the Gotham than they did that day. I also just found out that SD “scoped dirty” after the Gotham and his trainer said there was a lot of “crud” in his lungs. Since “crud” is not a precise veterinary term, I don’t know if this was clotted blood or pus from an infection, but I’m sure it didn’t help his breathing. I’m sure some will say that the exertion of the Whirlaway weakened his immune system, but it’s just as likely he just picked up a bug because he was next to the wrong horse at the wrong time.

The point is there are plenty of other explanations for the horse’s performance without invoking the over-used bounce and to automatically attribute any decline in a horses placing or speed figure, but not necessarily performance, to a bounce is often because the horse’s performance is not analyzed properly – either pre or post the alleged bounce.



Bob

the_fat_man
03-12-2007, 09:18 PM
nada