Wins by bet rank - Gender - Age

[misscashalot]

Heres a breakdown of Avg Odds and % of wins by Bet Ranking for Males - Females -2 yr - 3 yr - 3up - 4up

NYRA
010291-030807 Total 38,151 Races

Female 2yr 2300 races
Fav $1.30 885 wins 0.384
2 2.96 485 0.210
3 4.76 338 0.146
4 7.07 195 0.084
5 9.91 159 0.069

F 3yr 3619
Fav 1.41 1272 0.351
2 2.97 781 0.215
3 4.52 560 0.154
4 6.62 388 0.107
5 9.43 248 0.068

F 3u 7463
Fav 1.39 2721 0.364
2 3.00 1604 0.214
3 4.70 1101 0.147
4 6.87 744 0.099
5 9.63 485 0.064

F 4u 3494
Fav 1.41 1238 0.354
2 2.97 757 0.216
3 4.37 559 0.159
4 6.64 367 0.105
5 9.31 266 0.076

Male 2yr 2546
Fav 1.29 950 0.373
2 3.13 556 0.218
3 4.99 346 0.135
4 7.13 263 0.103
5 9.80 167 0.065

M 3yr 4288
Fav 1.39 1466 0.341
2 3.03 908 0.211
3 4.49 626 0.145
4 6.76 463 0.107
5 9.29 349 0.081

M 3u 9777
Fav 1.42 3446 0.352
2 3.04 2114 0.216
3 4.59 1481 0.151
4 6.67 991 0.101
5 9.41 682 0.069

M 4u 4664
Fav 1.51 1893 0.405
2 3.00 1168 0.250
3 4.40 927 0.198
4 6.35 607 0.130
5 9.16 414 0.088

[AwolAtPA]

thanks Cash-

this is clearly a reminder that anyone who wants to collect frequently needs to find good bets within the first three favorites, ie, each subgroup has near or above seventy (70) percent. And the first five are fairly consistent for all subgroups. So, someone betting only longshots will have a long, dry run.

duane

[misscashalot]

I immediately consider the first 4 bet choices

then those who have finished in the first 4 positions last out

then any horse who won its last out no matter the class, they comeback and win 20% of the time no matter the odds

and other standards dependent upon the class, distance gender etc.

Im also looking at the board close to post time

[Overlay]

Should there be a correction to the figures for males 4 and up? (The total of the given percentages appears to be too high.)

[misscashalot]

Correction for Male 4up

Races 5664

Fav 1893 .334
2nd bet choice 1168 .206
3rd bet choice 927 .163
4th bet choice 607 .107
5th bet choice 414 .073

Total in sample 39,151

[Overlay]

thanks Cash-

this is clearly a reminder that anyone who wants to collect frequently needs to find good bets within the first three favorites, ie, each subgroup has near or above seventy (70) percent. And the first five are fairly consistent for all subgroups. So, someone betting only longshots will have a long, dry run.

duane

I agree that those are hard percentages to fight, and that betting longshots indiscriminately just because they offer a higher potential payoff is futile. But that's also not to say that the public does not make misjudgments about the winning probability of individual horses on a regular basis.

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

Confirms what I've been doing -- looking for value and results out of top 3. Actually, discarding favorite and then looking at next 2. But thats me.. and I'm betting NYRA!:cool:

[Overlay]

Basically sounds similar to what William Scott was doing in Investing at the Racetrack, where he confined his consideration to the top three betting choices, and made it his goal to find the race winner among them in two out of every three races, which (since one of the top three betting choices wins two-thirds of all races) would produce an average of four winners in every nine races.

[CapperLou]

Basically sounds similar to what William Scott was doing in Investing at the Racetrack, where he confined his consideration to the top three betting choices, and made it his goal to find the race winner among them in two out of every three races, which (since one of the top three betting choices wins two-thirds of all races) would produce an average of four winners in every nine races.

I knew Mr Scott (pen name) and spent some time with him years ago at the track. Did nicely with this concept and even better utilizing the next "update" with his book "Total Victory At the Track" after "How Will Your Horse Run Today".

This still works today, but it is much more difficult since simulcasting and so much more info being available to all the punters. There are a handful of tracks where it still is profitable from TVAT at certain distances with 3 yr olds and up(I'll give you this one)!!!...

This fellow was ahead of his time then. I spent time with Ray Taulbot before I met him and Taulbot was a smart cookie in his time, but Scott was a much more educated and analytical person---a good lawyer of course in the D.C. metro area. Scott also kept you cashing--it was incredible--I rarely went more than three races without cashing of those that were playable. I still use the TVAt software I own in conjunction with my JCapper at certain tracks and ages and distances as I mentioned earlier. Works for me!!

All the Best,

CapperLou