PDA

View Full Version : Bias


misscashalot
03-08-2007, 01:10 AM
Winning post positions for the past 44 races at Aqu Inner dirt ending Mar 7
all distances
1- 3 wins
2- 5
3- 5
4- 9
5- 3
6- 8
7- 5
8- 4
9- 2

Whats your opinion about biases?

Tom
03-08-2007, 07:26 AM
Too much noise.
You need to break down by distance - sprint or route, and inlude nuber of starters. If you only has 8 horses start fro PP 8 or 9, you would have something interesting there.

bobphilo
03-08-2007, 07:53 AM
Misscash,

I'd like to see the proportion of winners in relation to number of starters from each post, but this is still interesting since it seems to contradict the inside bias everyone has been talking about, especially since adjusting for number of staters would make the outside post numbers even more impressive.
This could also be due to the small sample size or can reflect that riders are moving to the inside to mitigate the bias. It should be interesting to see if this holds up over a larger sample or perhaps a detailed study to see if horses running actually running on the rail have an additional advantage, beyond saving ground.

In any case, I find your study interesting enough to warrent futher analysis.

Bob

Valuist
03-08-2007, 08:27 AM
You need to break it down by individual days. Not many tracks are going to be biased almost every day. And some tracks will have days when the rail is good, and others when the inside is deep. Specifics beat generalizations in this game.

1st time lasix
03-08-2007, 09:16 AM
Just an opinion but I am biased against winter racing at the inner track. It is dreary for the horsemen. fans and for the animals. Too many lousy, hurt, claiming NY bred stock to put your hard earned money on. Far better venues at this time of year. NY claims to have money problems......they should close it. :sleeping:

alysheba88
03-08-2007, 09:55 AM
Just an opinion but I am biased against winter racing at the inner track. It is dreary for the horsemen. fans and for the animals. Too many lousy, hurt, claiming NY bred stock to put your hard earned money on. Far better venues at this time of year. NY claims to have money problems......they should close it. :sleeping:

The day i cant make money at Aqueduct is the day I give up the game. To me by far the easiest meet to make money on consistently.

As far as the animals, they prefer the cold to the heat

misscashalot
03-08-2007, 10:40 AM
Misscash,

I'd like to see the proportion of winners in relation to number of starters from each post, but this is still interesting since it seems to contradict the inside bias everyone has been talking about, especially since adjusting for number of staters would make the outside post numbers even more impressive.
This could also be due to the small sample size or can reflect that riders are moving to the inside to mitigate the bias. It should be interesting to see if this holds up over a larger sample or perhaps a detailed study to see if horses running actually running on the rail have an additional advantage, beyond saving ground.

In any case, I find your study interesting enough to warrent futher analysis.

Bob

Number of runners/number of races

4 - 44
5 - 43
6 - 39
7 - 30
8 - 15
9 - 4
10 - 2

the_fat_man
03-08-2007, 05:11 PM
As far as the animals, they prefer the cold to the heat

Thank you for FINALLY making that clear. It seems that most seem to think that horses don't deal with the cold very well, while it's actually the heat that they can't handle and most thrive in the cold weather.

DanG
03-08-2007, 05:54 PM
Thank you for FINALLY making that clear. It seems that most seem to think that horses don't deal with the cold very well, while it's actually the heat that they can't handle and most thrive in the cold weather.
There’s cold…and then there is 9 degree’s.

Calder in August and racing below freezing is equally idiotic IMO.

46zilzal
03-08-2007, 05:56 PM
Thank you for FINALLY making that clear. It seems that most seem to think that horses don't deal with the cold very well, while it's actually the heat that they can't handle and most thrive in the cold weather.
COLD, that's great Once out front no one catches too many of them

Kelso
03-09-2007, 01:04 AM
it's actually the heat that they can't handle and most thrive in the cold weather.



Not a DVM ... yet not so sure horses "thrive" working up a SWEAT in the bitter cold. I don't think they are called upon to do that very often on the plains. (Not sure how many barn-raised t'breds are out there in the first place.) Could be wrong, but waiting to be advised accordingly by competent authority.

Zaf
03-09-2007, 01:42 AM
:)

All I know is that this has been an awesome meet !