Maiden Races

[MANOWAR]

Can anyone recommend a few good books on how to handicap maiden races?
This is a grey area to me.
I've read that their the easiest races to handicap, and hopefully maiden races will improve my ROI.
Any information on this subject would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

[GR1@HTR]

Here is my one page book on how to play maiden races...

1) Trainer: Find win% of trainer w/ FTS (first time starters). Does he/she win 2nd time out...1st/2nd lasix
2) Breeding: Find win% of Mommy and Daddy of horse w/ FTS or stretchouts.
3) Workouts: Learn how the trainers train their horses leading up to a maiden race.
4) Trip: Did the horse have an usual trip
5) Track Bias: At your favorite track, where do winning maidens come from? Can they win from off the pace?
6) Pace: Anybody have a good advantage in any of the fractions or make a hidden move?
7) Jockey: Is he/she any good or will the midget athlete fall off the horse.
8) What are the winning times/speed figures of horses who have won previously at that track and class. DRF/BRIS players can use the so called hidden Beyer/Bris figure.

Thats all for now...gotta get back to work...

[pic6vic]

Each circuit has different characteristics because of class.

The Southern Cal circuit has 2 or 3 differnet services I know of that produce workouts and have excellent information. Unfortunately this tends to lower the price on the horses that are working well. I subscribe to 1 (national turf) and but the racing digest daily. (www.todaysracingdigest.com) (www.nationalturf.com)

[hurrikane]

ahh..maidens.
best way to play them..

lay out the form..get out the vaseline..bend over. :D

actually I love them but only for the full fields and the exotics. keys to look for

1. trainer! trainer! trainer! (there are some trainers that that are no-brainers with mdns and you would be surprised at the odds you can get.)

2. odds less than half MLO (especially at CRC) if you know the barn bets. You have to know the barns.

3. physicallity...especially to fill out the exotics.

4. Get to know the classes of each track and watch for shippers and changes of venue. I have a ball going from CD to ELP to KEE and back.

Have deep pockets and nerves of steel. You're going to sweat through some close ones before you get your signer.

[Zaf]

Originally posted by GR1

DRF/BRIS players can use the so called hidden Beyer/Bris figure.

Thats all for now...gotta get back to work...

What are hidden Beyer / Bris figures ???

Thanks , Zafonic

[GR1@HTR]

Hidden beyer is just a fancy term that Jim Lehane has in his book for the winning speed figure of the winner of the race. I don't know the length/points figs for bris or beyer but let say in a 6f race 2pt=1 length. If horse A ran a speed fig of 70 and lost by 5 lengths then that means the winner of that race ran a 80.

If you compile a list of what the winning speed figure is for each winner on a per class basis for maidens, it will give you a good idea what it takes to win and if any of the non FTS horses are capable of winning today.

[Speed Figure]

It's like 2.5 points per length so if horse A ran a beyer of 68 and lost by 5 lengths than the winner should get an 80 beyer for winning the race.

what race tracks do you play? ;)

[GR1@HTR]

Speedfigure

I don't use bris or beyer but there is a web site out there you would like. www.speedfigures.com

[hurrikane]

Curious, I know the left coasters (Joe T) keep track of siresand the FTS by success at the tracks they start on. Anyone used these and had any success or have any input?

[Chico]

Everyone has their own spin on handicapping, which permits many different approaches to winning at the track. In regard to maiden races, here is the way I look at them:
I never bet a race with 3 or more first time starters - too many unknowns involved.
Horses dropping down from having run ONLY maiden special weights to any price maiden claiming are always a good bet, regardless of how badly they ran in the higher class - MSW to claiming is the single biggest class drop in racing.
Most horses running in maiden races NEVER win a race - I believe the percentages are about 80%.
These horses have little or no class - they just run as fast as they can as far as they can. If you
pay close attention to maiden races you will observe that the horse on the lead at the final turn wins about 80% of the races and an additional
15% or so are won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead at the bottom of the turn. Therefore it is only necessary in most cases to determine which horse will have the lead at the second call.
In addition, maiden races are among the most "honest" of races. Owners and trainers, for the most part, want to know what kind of horse they have and don't play games with the horse to get a price.
Generally speaking, with maidens what you see is what you get. Fastest horse to the second call wins the race.

Regards,
Chico

[Rick]

I bet all maiden races with 3 or more horses who have raced before and throw out all first time starters. First time starters have a horrible record overall so you can usually ignore them. If a race has less than 3 horses who have raced before, you should look at jockey/trainer data. Breeding statistics only give you about 15% winners and a big loss. Ignore them.

[John]

GUYS,
What about recency ??

A lot of Maidens run one or two races and then are gone for months. I just noticed a horse that won 03/01 at Gulfstream park who last raced at Aqueduct 12/13 almost three months ago.

????

[MANOWAR]

I think the oldest angle in the book is to bet a MSW horse dropping down in class for the first time into MDCL races. After doing some research, these MSW horses are overbet and offer no value. Especially if the MSW horse had shown early speed in the MSW race. There are some people who swear by this angle. You can't profit on a 2-1 horse.

[John]

Manowar....

How about the Maiden that raced MSW . laysoff for 3 months and now is in a Maiden claiming.

Some one said, when they are laided off that long . Treat them as a fist time starter, I don't like that idea ar all. Especially with no workouts

[JustRalph]

Positive Rider Change on to a maiden. I like that one.

I used to hit that one at Hou sometimes.

Yesterday at Aqu I liked a maiden that N. Arroyo was on, first starter. Decided to pass the race and went to play another. What a pain when I watched him win easy on TVG @ around 13-1. I even had the other two under via Equisim. But didn't play it. The tri paid $1800 Arrrgghghghgh!

[Fastracehorse]

>Breeding statistics only give you about 15% winners and a big loss. Ignore them.

I pretty much ignore them too - I believe there are more powerful indicators with firsters.

With that 15% loss - is it a big sample?? I just want to sound smart when I tell my frriends: I told you so.

LOL.

fffastt

[Tom]

Here is a Crammer angle play -
MSW or ALW NW1
Max 2 races
Laid off over 45 days (might be 90?)
Trainer >= 12%

There might be another "rule" - I'll look it up and post if there is.
This angel is especially good March-June with 3yos.

[Fastracehorse]

I luv that angle.

Howard Zucker said it best ( Crafty C. T. ):

'The young ones always come back better.'

Well almost always - trainer intent is important as well - sometimes the trainer may want to give the horse a start - but if you are looking for prices there is no better angle.

fffastt

[Rick]

fast,

I think it was 15% wins and about 30% loss. I only checked maybe 300 races, but the pattern seemed pretty obvious. That study was using BRIS numbers, which supposedly incorporate several factors. I really expected them to do better since I knew I could get better than 20% wins just using jockey/trainer stats alone. There is some evidence to suggest that just using dam statistics alone may be better but the samples are small and you'd better make sure you get a good price. Workout frequency may be somewhat helpful at east coast tracks. Still, it doesn't really hurt at all to just ignore all first time starters. One Sport Stat study showed 7.7% wins and 36% loss on 4995 races for first timers. Other studies show a little better results, but it's clear to me that overlays on first time starters are few and far between.

[Tom]

Yeah, I will still look at a orse the second time out, especially if there some meaningful change, or w work between races, etc.
At FL, I have nailed some b-i-g ones with this baby. And at the main track AQU, I love this on horses coming up from GP with this angle, or ones that last ran on the main track Oct-Nov timefram then sat out the inner track or even went south and only worked out inthe sun (how do you spell bonanza? p-a-y-s-o-n... hehe).
If the lay off is from the fall, I like to see a horse that ran an inferior beyer then, but if you add in points for development he is competive with today's worn out winter horses.

[Fastracehorse]

About firsters:

Last year if I got beat in a p-3 it was often by one of my selections I didn't use ( 4th choice or so ) or by a firster.

Firsters are difficult to gauge, and risky, but if I like there work-outs or looks I use them.

If you are intimate with a certain track you have much better insights into this.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

You are right!!

fffastt

[Hosshead]

It's easier to throw out FTS's,.. if it's a Distance Race.

[John]

Horseshead

Good angle I like it.

Now what about the odds.It seems to me that most Maiden winner pay less than their morning line. Is it because the morning line maker inflates his line to make it attractive or is the public better Handicappers than we give them credit.

[cj]

Originally posted by rocajack
Horseshead

Good angle I like it.

Now what about the odds.It seems to me that most Maiden winner pay less than their morning line. Is it because the morning line maker inflates his line to make it attractive or is the public better Handicappers than we give them credit.

I don't track things like this, but don't most winners, not just maidens, pay less then their morning line?

CJ

[John]

Craig, I don't know for sure but I think it happens more often with Non winners.

[Rick]

CJ,

Yes, that's true but first time starters have to be much better to be an overlay when they start out losing so much more than average.

[John]

Rick,
I don't understand your post CJ, Please explain to me.

Thanks

[Rick]

rocajack,

CJ was just an abbreviation for cjmilkowski.

[John]

Rick , This is what I don't understand.

"Yes, that's true but first time starters have to be much
better to be an overlay when they start out losing so
much more than average.

Rocajack

[MANOWAR]

Before we continue, does anyone know any decent maiden longshot angles? As we all know, any maiden showing early speed or a high win % trainer/jockey combination are always overbet. Thanks

[John]

Manowar

I know a Guy that bets FTS only that have 3 workouts in
fifthteen days . If tied the horse that worked the most furlongs in his last three workouts. Still tied, pass

[MANOWAR]

How about horses that have raced 1 or 2 times? I won't play FTS.

[Derek2U]

I think rating the SPEED of workouts is an Art mostly but U got
to know ur racetrack. Frequency of WOs for beginning maidens
makes sense. Every 5-6 days per WO. Some rule like that
seems useful. The one think I'm able to type here is that WOs
are a Very Useful handicapping tool & I look at them better than
I use to & its helps a great deal in deciding if your horse has or
kept its Edge. Yeah I point my ears toward any talk about the
WO topic.

[MANOWAR]

Speaking of workouts. A 5 furlong workout is better than a 3 or 4 furlong workout? No matter if the 3 or 4 furlong workouts were bullet workouts. Right? Someone told me that a couple of years ago.

[Doug]

When these 2 yr olds start to race soon watch this.

If a 1st time starter has worked longer that he is being asked to run today. Especially if that longer workout is followed bya short workout. Racing 4 1/2 furlongs today, must have worked 5 furs or longer etc.

Doug

[MANOWAR]

I see that celebguy really takes horse racing seriously. There's no place on this board for nonsense.

[hurrikane]

MOW...yes...5F work is a key. I think even a mediocre 5f is better than a 3 or 4 bullet. And seldom overbet.


as for celebguy...nonsense. What nonsense?

[BIG HIT]

If has over three gate work's in prep's for today throw out horse has problem's.Find this work's for me

[MANOWAR]

hurrikane

I'm very serious when it comes to horse racing and handicapping. I live, breath, eat, and sleep horse racing. My main objective is to get to the pro level.

If you have a 9-5 job that pays well, then I can see having some fun every so often.

celebguy must have one of those 9-5 jobs that pays well. Either that or he has too much time on his hands.

[GR1@HTR]

Mdn Work out...The key is a 4 letter word and I will leave it at that.

[Rick]

rocajack,

What I meant is that if first time starters overall lose 36% or return about 64 cents on the dollar, any factor that you choose would need to have a much higher impact value to have any chance of showing a profit. For example, if we assume that all horses overall show 0.80 return, then a 1.25 impact value gets us to break even (IF it doesn't affect the odds at the same time). But for first time starters you'd need an impact value of about 1/.64 = 1.5625 to get you to break even. When you also consider that there isn't much significant information available for first time starters, the possibility of finding overlays on them seems rather remote. I don't deny that the possibility exists, just that it would probably only occur rarely and mostly on longer priced horses. Just my opinion, but I've been ignoring them for years and it hasn't hurt my ROI a bit.

[John]

Guys,
Maiden races. Ignore Final Time. If it were good enough,
they wouldn't be maidens!

[Nostrum]

About 85% of my bets are on maiden races.I wish I could have a card with 10 maiden claimers on it at my local oval.I always turn to the maiden races first.Everyone has their own "niche" in racing, mine is maiden races.

[MANOWAR]

Nostrum

What's the secret to your success? I doubt you'll tell me the truth. I thought I'd just ask anyway. I want to see what kind of reply I get. If I get a reply at all.

[Nostrum]

Why would you doubt that I would answer?Some people focus on stakes races, some on turf etc.I have my edge in maiden races.There is no secret to maidens.I have not seen one of the most important things involving maidens even mentioned here yet. The maiden who started at 2 , has been given time and now is coming off the shelf as a 3yr old. It's not a stand alone factor
( what angle/factor in handicapping is?) but its a very, very dangerous one.

[cj]

Nostrum,

That is a very good angle, especially if the horse received some betting action in his 2yo start(s).

CJ

[John]

Nostrum

what do you think the reason for the maiden being on the shelf is ?

I feel the maiden got hurt or bucked shins so bad that it is months before it starts to train back.

it would be nice if that information was there for us to read.

[Nostrum]

Originally posted by rocajack
Nostrum

what do you think the reason for the maiden being on the shelf is ?

I feel the maiden got hurt or bucked shins so bad that it is months before it starts to train back.

it would be nice if that information was there for us to read.

I'm far from an expert in 2yr old development, but I assume it could be for a variety of reasons including shins bucked,pin firing,just letting a horse/grow/mature/develop etc. At this point you start to factor in the trainer.

[ernie simons]

I ran across this strategy a while back in Arthur Reber's book "THE GAMBLERS BIBLE" He calls it the buzzy special. I've tried it a few times with moderate success, but I have a nagging hesitation to bet the maidens to win only. So I can't really vouch for it's long term ROI. It's simply this::Look for a horse making his 2nd start who had a bad trip in his 1st start, but had an excuse, such as getting out of the gate slowly, or bumbed by another horse. The horse warrants further consideration if it's dropped from MSW into claimers & addiing a positive change...blinkers, jockey, etc. There are a few other points but these are the gist of it.

I've hit a couple of these at Belmont last year for double digit odds, and I've hit a couple at some short prices, but I've come up way short on 6 or 7. That's as far as I went with it. I mainly stick to X's & tri's.

I think if you back check some races, you might be surprised.

[GameTheory]

I love betting maidens that have had only terrible races or are coming off a terrible race, as long as they have only a few total races. (It is nice to see some brief speed though, even if they lose by 30.) If they've gotten time to develop, or have a good pedigree, or have a good series of works, they often wake up and hit at huge prices.

Maidens are also my favorite races to bet -- you can eliminate half the field very easily (usually), and there are not too many games from the trainer -- darkening form, etc. Remember, most maidens will *never* win a race. Maidens tend to hit at very low prices and very high ones. Go for the high ones...

[MANOWAR]

Nostrum

There are people who wouldn't tell exactly how they profit from the horses. Whether on a discussion board or elsewhere. You can understand why. You tell one member, you tell all members. That nice profit that keeps you in the black goes straight down the drain.

[John]

Manowar.

I disagree. Any thing I told on this board I got back 10 fold. Like this link.

If I told you and all that I win with High percentage jockeys and trainers on maidens that finished in the money in there last 5 starts and have decent workouts There will be a hundred who read this board that will forget it in 5 days out of the hundred maybe 50 will give it a try. If 25 lose on the first day they will forget it.. Half of the remaining 25 will give it up because of the high chalk payouts and then the remaining few will not waite for the right races to come and give it up and then there are none.

I would tell anyone all I know because I know if it does not fit their style of play. they are not interested.

[MANOWAR]

rocajack

Never thought of it that way. Good point.

[ndib]

I look at workout patterns such as 3 w.o. within 8/9 days. Also, horses working 7 fur.or a mile even better. Horses working at the race day track have an advantage. horses working handily(except west coast tracks) seem to have nice ROI if the w.o. is the top 10% of the sample. My best angle is horses that break poorly from an inside post then rush up to be third or better and drop back. Esp. good if horse goes from inside post to outside post.

[Nostrum]

Originally posted by ManOWar
Nostrum

There are people who wouldn't tell exactly how they profit from the horses. Whether on a discussion board or elsewhere. You can understand why. You tell one member, you tell all members. That nice profit that keeps you in the black goes straight down the drain.

What I do isn't a "system" or any type of mechanical formula.I use pace numbers, trainer stats,breeding info,and a strong knowledge of my local trainers.It just depends on the indvidual circumstances of each race.The 2 yo, given time and coming off the shelf as a 3yo is one of the most dangerous weapons in handicapping,but goes against the "general public" way of thinking.People don't like betting a horse off a layoff,fearing it will "need the race" There have been some nice gems at GP and OP.

[MANOWAR]

Nostrum

Your talking strictly about maidens who have raced 1 or 2 races as 2 yr olds, took a vacation, and then came back to the track as 3 yr olds?

Will this work for lightly raced 3 yr olds who have broken their maidens before the layoff?

[karlskorner]

From NetCapper.com

"Only in the racing culture is the opinion held that consistent winners will not pass it on. I am pleased to inform that this is not true. Contrary to popular belief, excellent players will exchange with other excellent players"

Steve Fierro "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing"

[MANOWAR]

karlskorner

I was brainwashed years ago into thinking that consistant winners wouldn't share their winning knowledge with anyone. I'm now starting to believe otherwise. The key word here is "starting". There's still a part of me that still thinks these winners wouldn't share their knowledge.

[karlskorner]

The word knowledge as used here is the stumbling block, knowledge is something gained by experience in learning the craft of handicapping. I would be hard pressed to put into words the knowledge I have learned through experience over the years.

[BIG HIT]

Been hdcp since 1968 have learned alot seen other player win big and other's lose everything.And the truth is there are as many way's two win as thier is two lose.Horse racing is like the glass half full or empty.
The people here are the most knowledgeable i can ever hope to listen two. THANK'S ALL

[Rick]

Here's a maiden toteboard angle that used to work pretty well. I haven't checked it lately but it should still work.

Horse has either one or two starts and finished 5th or worse in each race and bet down by at least 40% comparing actual odds to morning line odds. I'd adjust morning line odds first if there are scratches.

[Nostrum]

Originally posted by ManOWar
Nostrum

Your talking strictly about maidens who have raced 1 or 2 races as 2 yr olds, took a vacation, and then came back to the track as 3 yr olds?

Will this work for lightly raced 3 yr olds who have broken their maidens before the layoff?

Generally yes, they have usually run only once or twice before they go on the shelf.But sometimes itmay be more,sometimes less.It just depends on the individual circumstances. I don't believe in hard and fast rules in handicapping. I'm not sure I understand your 2nd question.Are you asking how a horse who has broken its maiden as a 3yo and then been given time off will do in its upcoming starts?

[Nostrum]

Originally posted by karlskorner
The word knowledge as used here is the stumbling block, knowledge is something gained by experience in learning the craft of handicapping. I would be hard pressed to put into words the knowledge I have learned through experience over the years.

Karlskorner you are right on the money with that. I look at it as more of an art than a science.

[MANOWAR]

Nostrum

Let me rephrase my second question.

If a lightly raced 2 yr old breaks its maiden, then goes on the shelf for 3 or 4 months, comes back to the track as a 3 yr old, will this move produce a nice profit?

[Nostrum]

Originally posted by ManOWar
Nostrum

Let me rephrase my second question.

If a lightly raced 2 yr old breaks its maiden, then goes on the shelf for 3 or 4 months, comes back to the track as a 3 yr old, will this move produce a nice profit?

I don't have any database or ROI stats but generally speaking,when using my pace numbers if I find a 3yo making its seasonal debut, and it has run as fast, or within a couple of lengths numerically as a 2yo compared to the current numbers the 3yo or older competition it's facing today has run, I will make a walk to the betting window.I am less apt to wager if the horse is facing more seasoned runners .If most of the competition is coming off its maiden win then I will likely wager.It's not a maiden race but I'm still interested <G>.
The value lies in betting the horse off the layoff and the natural development/maturation a horse does during the time off, two things the general public does not always pick up on or is prone to embrace.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally posted by ernie simons
I ran across this strategy a while back in Arthur Reber's book "THE GAMBLERS BIBLE" He calls it the buzzy special. I've tried it a few times with moderate success, but I have a nagging hesitation to bet the maidens to win only. So I can't really vouch for it's long term ROI. It's simply this::Look for a horse making his 2nd start who had a bad trip in his 1st start, but had an excuse, such as getting out of the gate slowly, or bumbed by another horse. The horse warrants further consideration if it's dropped from MSW into claimers & addiing a positive change...blinkers, jockey, etc. There are a few other points but these are the gist of it.

I've hit a couple of these at Belmont last year for double digit odds, and I've hit a couple at some short prices, but I've come up way short on 6 or 7. That's as far as I went with it. I mainly stick to X's & tri's.

I think if you back check some races, you might be surprised.

Hey! I read and tried that too! However, it needed refinement because it was inconsistent and I added one simple piece - it works best when the 2nd time starter is coming off a layoff. It gave the connections time to 'tweak and fine tune' for a winning effort next out. The main signal is equipment change.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

HOrse is a two year old.

HOrse went off at 5-1 or less last out in MSW and lost!

Horse is in MSW today.

Thats it!

Caught some mighty big numbers with this angle
if the horse was good enough to get bet in his debut
maybe the trainer corrected whatever went wrong and
now the horse is ready to roll.

[dav4463]

I've learned a lot from this forum. There are more good ideas presented here than in most of my vast collection of handicapping books. I agree that most (not all), but most winning players are willing to help out anybody who truly wants to learn. Probably most of those who refuse to help others aren't winning anyway. That's my opinion on that matter. I know that when I was just starting out really learning to handicap that 9 times out of 10 if I asked a winning player for help, they would go out of their way to help me. Also, I believe most winning players enjoy teaching others what they know and talking horseracing in general. There are so many different ways to win, that one style is not going to influence the price much, if at all.

[Fastracehorse]

I've found that most people aren't open to learning - and that turns teachers off.

Also, if you explain something - people always interrupt with questions about the integirty of your theories - well then, I guess they know everything.

A hilarious thing happened to me at my OTB on Wed: a relative newbie came over to me and spewed sewage about the horses he liked - I told him I liked this 60-1. He dismissed it - and the dang thing won!

I had a 1% bankroll win wager on him - it was too funny - I couldn't stop laughing at him.

I saw him the next day and he told how proficient he was at the harness the same night - and that he was a fine handicapper - I said, " You are the best."

Sound cynical do I?? I'm a horse player.

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

I believe I'd have a difficult time going to the track and asking someone I don't know for advice on different aspects of handicapping that I wasn't so sure about. Like maiden races. It's easier for me to ask questions about handicapping in this kind of enviroment. Meaning an online discussion forum.

[dav4463]

The ones that aren't open to learning are the ones that keep the prices up ! Like the guy I saw the other night. He was playing every track in the country at the same time. I overheard his logic to one of his buddies. He said " that 4 horse has been hot tonight....think I'll play a 4-all exacta". His buddy asked which track...He looked up and said..."Delta, only 1 minute to post !" With that kind of logic, good players will always get prices ! Imagine thinking that the 4 wins at Houston, therefore the 4 has a better chance at Delta or Penn or anywhere else running at that time ! Another guy told me once he always plays a 2-3-4 trifecta box on every race ! I would hate to see his losing streaks!

[Fastracehorse]

I guess it's just difficult to drop the ego - I'm guilty of that.

One way to evolve as a player is to ask questions - questions like: 'Why my angle works really well in this situation but not in others'.

Insights are gained by the puzzlement we often face - just don't turn the page after a defeat.

I'm doing a project right now - I call it profile of winners. There is so much work involved in handicapping that it is difficult for people to review all the PP"s after the fact - because we have to handicap tomorrow's card.

But this extra effort has surprisingly lead to some new insights already for myself. When I collect all the data I'll share with this forum some new angles - I'm not worried about it hurting my price because the psychology of most 'cappers is to play the fave anyways.

fffastt

[dav4463]

Looking forward to the profile of winners. Sounds interesting.

[alysheba88]

In general, betting a horse second out can be a great strategy (depending on the trainer of course). The public puts way too much emphasis on last race. Horses, especially the maiden special weights often improve dramatically second time out. Beyers go up 20-30 points. To narrow it down further, a second time starter who showed early speed and tired last out, is often a great overlay. The public will see a horse who lost by 15 plus lengths and earned a low Beyer and immediately discard. On the opposite note, the public overbets the perennial maiden (seven plus starts) always figuring "the horse is due". Usually this perennial maiden has the highest Beyers in the field and a bunch of second place finishes. Total sucker horse most of the time. Will always find a way to get beat.

[Handle]

Fast -

I'm really interested in the approach you take on this. EquiSim's Profiler attempts to do just this in a mechanical fashion by looking at varius factors (I call them "abilities", but I'm not the best at naming things). Basically, it assigns each ability to each horse in a race. Many of the ablities are pacelines specific, others are not. The next (yet released) version cross-references connections with these abilities as well. Included here will be such things as how well a Sire does on a particular surface, or how well a trainer does when he has the horse with the best speed figure in a race.

The program tucks these abilities away in a database, along with the results. The next time you handicap a race, it pulls out the statistics for each ability from races that match the type of race you are handicapping. The collection of these statistics is what I call a Profile.

What sorts of things are you looking at to form the basis for your Profile?

Typical things I look for:
Dominant, Best, Strong, Weak values (compared to the field) for:
Pace Figures, Speed Figures, BRIS/TSN prime power numbers, Trainer win record

Along with first time lasix, first/second off of claim, an E style horse shortening up in distance....


-Nathan

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF

I'm doing a project right now - I call it profile of winners. There is so much work involved in handicapping that it is difficult for people to review all the PP"s after the fact - because we have to handicap tomorrow's card.
fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Nathan,

I make a hierarchy of handicapping factors.

Most people put too much weight on certain factors - such as jockey and trainer win %'s.

I've developed a speed figure of my own iand it is very accurate. It adjusts figs from dirt to lawn and sprint to route - also lost gorund.

Having said that, speed figs on their own that provide overlays are nice, but not as effective as they could be with trainer intents.

Some of these intents are obvious, as you mentioned lasix, and you could think of more obvious ones.

What I am essentially doing is trying to find new insights - broaden my understanding of the game - by profiling winners.

What is important to me is finding potent angles that aren't popular.

This isn't mechanical - I could never be that way - I always put pieces of a puzzle together. Eg, why would a horse that won 3 straight dirt races be entered on turf today - it doesn't make sense. Hence, this fave willl probably run out, and they do.

My point being is I am trying to improve and I can't imagine a better way of doint it - profiling winners - I have gained some fascinating insights already and it's paying too - and these are insights that nobody talks about.

Nice chatting with yah,

Hope we can share new discoveries.

fffastt

[ThoroTech_OPLS]

Fast,

Couldn't agree more re: Profiles and learning new stuff. I find it particularly interesting that the public is often happy to sit on a "one size fits all" approach when different "types" of races (track, dist, makeup, etc.) can be "typically" won in radically different ways.

I like that you suggest weighting things. ES creates a Profiler Value from the statistics in its profiles. The value is essentially a weighting of all the factors (abilities) involved. This has proven thus far to be a real solid win predictor.

I'm hesitant to think that some angles, such as "3 dirt wins and a switch to turf", can be particularly useful because so few of these scenarios occur that it is very difficult to verify your assumptions.

But that's my bias to using mechanical means to sharpen my handicapping and validate my assumptions. I think such scrutiny of the form -- the very act of simply looking for such odd things as 3 dirt wins/switch to turf and then categorizing them -- is a remarkably good indicator of a serious student of the game. In these cases, when quantification is difficult, I'm not prone to make a judgement call one way or the other based on the merits of the thing I'm looking at. It's a stand out fact of the data. That notion, often, is the most important piece of the puzzle. In this case, those 3 prior wins in a row are strong indicators. If other factors pertaining to this horse and others didn't make consideration of this horse mute, I'd look at the odds on this horse. If low, I'd agree with your hypothetical and consider it a toss. If high, heck, why NOT take a shot? For me that's the essence of the game -- you cannot win on wins alone, so to speak, its about price.

And, yes, I realize that was a pretty locutious way of stating what everyone already knows!

-N

[ThoroTech_OPLS]

Fast,

I'll add one more thing to my last post on the topic.

Regarding stand outs. Had one just this last, uh, Saturday it was...

Horse was a speed ball (relatively speaking, and, in this case, in general), that quit in the stretch.

Most people HATE these types of horse. Pigs they call them (money burners are the ones that look like they can win and always finish 2nd or 3rd). I love them. I love them because they have an inherit ability to run FAST. This will, eventually, translate to a win at HUGE prices.

Using my first handicapping program I caught a 300$+ horse at Beulah park some 4 years ago or so. Fast early, always quit. My analysis showed this horse to have had the fastest time across the track for the field. My lucky day, yes, buy you had to be looking for it.

So, my point is, a big time quitter WITH a large dose of early speed is a "standout fact" of the data. Judging when to play them is tough, and you'd be best served to only play them at generous odds, but we all know that these types will win -- but most of us (according to the prices they pay) still don't know when to bet them.

-N

[ThoroTech_OPLS]

PS on the last post -- and if a trainer is going to darken a horse's form, it could well be by sending the horse out hard (to get a nice edge) and then laying off big time. Even easier if the horse is out classed in a race and doesn't stand much of a chance to win to being with. Horse turns a 95 E2, but still finishes 30 lengths up the track to the winner.

[Fastracehorse]

Great reply:

I think that you were making too much of that 3 turf/1 dirt angle - it wasn't really an angle for me - it was more of a description of how I logically piece a racing puzzle together.

In that case, throw-out the favorite - because it didn't make sense , in spite of the horse's prior dominance, to be entered on turf.

But like you I weigh factors. My research is to discover in what situations horses keep their form, or where situations arise that horses are very formful.

As I already stated previously, I innovated a speed fig - so I am confident about how a horse ran in the past. But I need more - how will the horse run today?? - in a multitude of situations.

There are instances where horses do very well, and pay very well, because the general public cannot put a quantity on the horse's ability.

It is almost an abstract process I'm par-taking in - however, because it is based on profiles where horses run well - it is concrete logic.

I understand your type of thinking: You want evidence that has been put through scientific rigour. Without it, you have doubts - but I apprecite your open-mindedness.

My quest is to thoroughly understand the game, put a blanket of knowledge over it if you will, and use handicapping factors that are venomous.

I think, and I believe that you will probably agree, that most popular beliefs aren't vault breakers.

Beautiful pick-3 at OP BTW - congrats.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Oh and -N,

I'd be fascinated by any further discussion or ideas you have.

fffastt