Speed at the Distance Question

[douglasw32]

Okay so you look at a race and see that one horse has gone exactly 1m 70tds like 4 times, one of them is higher than any other 1m70yd attempt by any horse the problem, out of the imaginary 8 horse field only two others have run 1m70yds and only once or twice but have much better figures right around the same distance like 1-1/16, the other 5 have never even ran a mile but again show some strong speed figs at the shorter distances.

The lone HIGHEST 1m70yd horse kills them, wins easily.

But when looking at the speed figures at face value there was nothing outstanding pointing to the winner over the higher figures at different distances than todays.

The question, how would you FILTER, in your head, weigh it out, whatever you want to call it.

Place MORE on attempts AT THE EXACT DISTANCE, if you go with the shorter dist figs and they can not route then that won't hold up, but maybe they love the added or shortened distance and they improve 10 points.

How do others handle this or do they just ignore it....

I find A FEW GOOD winners are explained by best figure at todays distance but have no stats to back that up.

And of course proven 4 year olds and up claimers and graded race horses are a better proposition in these scenarios than untested 2 yolds, maidens or conditioned allowance runners.

any thoughts?

[alysheba88]

To me making bets on figures in itself is a losing strategy but trying to differentiate between those distances is really barking up the wrong tree in my opinion. I mean I totally understand how you dont want to assume a horse who has been running six furlongs can replicate his typical performance at 1 1-16 or 1 1/8. But trying to split hairs over various route differences and making judgements on that alone is probably a waste of time.

Again can see separating sprint vers router. But not going into this horse ran best at 1 70 while this ran best at 1 1/16. Just dont think its meaningful. Dont mean to be so blunt but believe me trying to help

[Robert Fischer]

i may look 7f and than 9f as important distance measurements.

For the situation you mention, if any of the 1.1/16 horses ran faster, I would like them because that is a slightly longer race.

For horses adding distance today- The more distance any horse adds to his current form, for today's race - the more that I want to see some late pace in his form.

never run > 6.5f = I prefer to see strong late pace ability

[alysheba88]

i may look 7f and than 9f as important distance measurements.

For the situation you mention, if any of the 1.1/16 horses ran faster, I would like them because that is a slightly longer race.

For horses adding distance today- The more distance any horse adds to his current form, for today's race - the more that I want to see some late pace in his form.

never run > 6.5f = I prefer to see strong late pace ability

So you will discount basically all early speed sprinters when going long?

[alysheba88]

I would also add that I have found the worst bets to be the "closing sprinter" who is now stretching out

[betovernetcapper]

I agree the a mile and a mile-70 are pretty much the same. I also agree with Fisher that 7f is a peculiar distance.
But all other things being equal, I think it's a little easier for a sprinter to stretch out than a router to shorten up, because the early pace in sprints tends to be more vigorous. A horse that's in contention at 4f in a sprint may find itself all alone at the same point in a route race. For that reason I'm willing to take the shorter distance speed fig.

[douglasw32]

think it's a little easier for a sprinter to stretch out than a router to shorten up, because the early pace in sprints tends to be more vigorous. A horse that's in contention at 4f in a sprint may find itself all alone at the same point in a route race. For that reason I'm willing to take the shorter distance speed fig.


That is exactly the insight(s) I am looking for. Thanks.

[Robert Fischer]

So you will discount basically all early speed sprinters when going long?

It is all relative. I look at pedigree. I look at the horses quality. If that early sprinter is superior to this route field today he has a better chance. How bad is his late pace looking(very poor?/average?/good?)? Can the early sprinter rate? Hopefully I can even watch some video of this horse.

Yes the stretch-out for a "closing-sprinter" IS one of the worst bets in general. Again you look at pedigree. The ideal stretch-out candidates have route pedigree, and they aren't pure closers at the sprint(ie they have some early and middle speed and they continue on to very strong late speed)

[bobphilo]

To answer your first question. There's no point in trying to differentiat between performances at 1 M 70 and 1 1/16 M. A slight change in pace can make a mile race run like a 7 Furlong sprint or 8 furlong route. Speed ratings within a furlong are virtually interchangeable.

Your second question is more difficult. It's always difficult to predict how react to stretching out. Betovernet capper is correct that sprinters stretchuing out do better than routers shortening up. Quirrin found this in his landmark study so there is good statistical evidence. If a horse's sprint figures are poor, I usually don't expect it to improve at a distance but if it's figures at 6 F match or excede the the ones for the middle distance horses, I have to include it as a contender.
The final decision will depend on the sprinter's pedigree to some extent but I'll mainly look at whther the expected pace scenario suits him. If he has a tendency to tire and the pace looks fast today, I'll downgrade his chances.
It's true that stone closers in sprints often disappoint on the stretchout. In 7 F races in particular where they run the last 8th as slow as in 9 F races, a horse can lag off the hot pace and give the illusion of a strong finish by passing dead-tired horses in the stretch. In a stretchout, I like a horse that has the stamina to finish strong in a sprint after not laying too far back early. If I'm playing Exotics, I have the luxory of hedging by including the sprinter if his figures are competitive and he's not a chronic quitter.

As for your 3rd question, regardless of what type of horse wins, I would be reluctant to base a waggering stratey on the outcome of one race. Try to look at some long term statistics, like in Quirrin's study, though sometimes they can be hard to come by.

Hope this helps.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I agree the a mile and a mile-70 are pretty much the same. I also agree with Fisher that 7f is a peculiar distance.
But all other things being equal, I think it's a little easier for a sprinter to stretch out than a router to shorten up, because the early pace in sprints tends to be more vigorous. A horse that's in contention at 4f in a sprint may find itself all alone at the same point in a route race. For that reason I'm willing to take the shorter distance speed fig.

I have found that when comparing figs, it is always best to "try" and
"directlly" compare races within a 1/2f of each other up to 1 1/16 miles. That means 6-7f direct comparison is a NO-NO. I have passed on countless runners with standout figs at 6f that fall on their faces when the go 7f. With route races 1 mi compared to 1 1/16 or 1 70 is acceptable for both pace and variant ratings
from my perspective. Once you get to 1 1/8 mi, its a litlle more difficult to use 1 1/16 mi and 1 70 races for direct comparison because that 1 1/8 mile distance really eliminates alot of horses. Sometimes there is no choice but I do get concerned when I am rating a horse in a 1 1/8 mi race thats based on a 1 1/16 mi effort.

I do not agree that a sprinter can strech out easier than a router can cut back. I have made many successful plays with routers that cut back to sprints. A router with a pace rating that puts it in contention when compared to the variant rating of the sprinters in the field is ALWAYS a bet i will make
if other filtering criteria is met.

John

[betovernetcapper]

I agree that 7f races can be challenging. :)

[bobphilo]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]
I do not agree that a sprinter can strech out easier than a router can cut back. I have made many successful plays with routers that cut back to sprints. A router with a pace rating that puts it in contention when compared to the variant rating of the sprinters in the field is ALWAYS a bet i will make
if other filtering criteria is met.

Route to sprint horses have a poor impact value of .56 in general in Quirrin's study. However, if one splits this group into those that did or did not contest the early pace in the route it turns out that those that did not have a miserable IV of .42 while those that did had a respectable IV of .90. If these horses also have good space and speed figures, they can be good bets, as John points out.
The moral is to always try to get information that is as specific to the situation as possible. Mark Crammer points out that one should look for subclasses of groups that show charecteristics opposite to the group as a whole.

Bob

[betovernetcapper]

OTS the contribution the Quirin has made to this sport is amazing. The man really changed the way we look at racing.

Back on topic I would like to say when a horse is trying to go a longer distance and his speed figures are superior to those of his rivals, he will be very formidable. A horse moving from sprint to route will almost always display speed, and the essential speed favoring nature of American racing will be on his side.

I really would have liked to have said the above but it's a word for word quote from Andrew Beyer. If both Quirin and Beyer each express the notion that sprinters stretching out should be respected, maybe the idea isn't so far fetched. :)

[Good4Now]

bobphilo and r fischer...
thats some nice comments....while we may have strayed from the original query still good STUFF!

At the risk of going even more astray may I put forth the observation that on the mid west circuits it is part of oft seen trainer intent partially due to the fact that sprinters routinely carry more weight. I love the case wher the horse stretches out and picks up weight then turns back. Would that be a subset of a subset? Nutri-System for horses? I don't think so!

[shanta]

I have found that when comparing figs, it is always best to "try" and
"directlly" compare races within a 1/2f of each other up to 1 1/16 miles. That means 6-7f direct comparison is a NO-NO. I have passed on countless runners with standout figs at 6f that fall on their faces when the go 7f. With route races 1 mi compared to 1 1/16 or 1 70 is acceptable for both pace and variant ratings
from my perspective. Once you get to 1 1/8 mi, its a litlle more difficult to use 1 1/16 mi and 1 70 races for direct comparison because that 1 1/8 mile distance really eliminates alot of horses. Sometimes there is no choice but I do get concerned when I am rating a horse in a 1 1/8 mi race thats based on a 1 1/16 mi effort
John

I respectfully disagree with virtually every word posted above.

I have a conversion time I use with raw data and it works just fine. I LOVE evaluating 8f horses going 9f. What is even stronger is the 9f buck shortening up to 8 or 8.3 today.

My strongest sprint prices come mostly from evaluating 4.5f and 5f short sprinters stretching to 6.5f at BOTH Ct and Ded.

I use 6.2 seconds per 1/2 furlong and apply it the SAME whether 5f to 6f or 8f to 9f.

I use it on 5 claimers or graded runners.

No deceleration factor or this and that to worry bout. Works for me.

What also helps is I NEVER use only one line to evaluate my true contenders for the win. NEVER

Wherever there is confusion and a bit of chaos PRICE is usually not far behind.

Richie :)

[bobphilo]

bobphilo and r fischer...
thats some nice comments....while we may have strayed from the original query still good STUFF!

At the risk of going even more astray may I put forth the observation that on the mid west circuits it is part of oft seen trainer intent partially due to the fact that sprinters routinely carry more weight. I love the case wher the horse stretches out and picks up weight then turns back. Would that be a subset of a subset? Nutri-System for horses? I don't think so!

Thanks Good,

Interesting observation on the mid-west trainers. While I doubt that carrying a few extra pounds in one sprint would have a significant conditioning effect, you at least know the horse is well meant in the route if you identify the trainer's pattern. One thing for sure, the horse is a definite bet against as a no-go in the sprint.

Bob

[ranchwest]

Good posts here.

I'd like to add that you have to be careful about short sprint horses stretching out. I find that fit horses can run pretty much flat out for about 4 or 4 1/2 furlongs. I've seen 4 1/2 furlong horses that could not get 5 f because they couldn't rate at all. Once I find a horse like that, I then always discount his chances stretching out.

[douglasw32]

Good stuff! I knew I would get more here than in any book :) thanks again.

[john del riccio]

I respectfully disagree with virtually every word posted above.

I have a conversion time I use with raw data and it works just fine. I LOVE evaluating 8f horses going 9f. What is even stronger is the 9f buck shortening up to 8 or 8.3 today.

My strongest sprint prices come mostly from evaluating 4.5f and 5f short sprinters stretching to 6.5f at BOTH Ct and Ded.

I use 6.2 seconds per 1/2 furlong and apply it the SAME whether 5f to 6f or 8f to 9f.

I use it on 5 claimers or graded runners.

No deceleration factor or this and that to worry bout. Works for me.

What also helps is I NEVER use only one line to evaluate my true contenders for the win. NEVER

Wherever there is confusion and a bit of chaos PRICE is usually not far behind.

Richie :)

richie,

i want to make sure that i state it clearly. i am only refering to situations where the horse has shown no races at this new distance. if a 6f specialist tries 7f, i am stating that using its 6f rating to compare directly to 7f ratings
of other runners or pace figures for routers cutting back is misleading.

as for sprinters stretching out, if they haven't done it before, i simply do not predict or project that they will do so successfully based on their ratings. of course they will likely show more early speed today since the pace in routes (2 turns) is typically slower but that doesn't mean their early potential speed advantage will translate into them getting the distance. if their odds are attractive and they have a superiror ratings when doing something for the first time, the value makes it "easier" to take a chance but to take a short price in situations like this is asking for trouble IMO.

i think this example is a great thing to look at in real time so to speak. if we can identify races beforehand and discuss them for situations where 6f specialists are going 7f or farther and or we have routers cutting back that meet certain criteria, we can better see whats happening and try to determine why.

john

[shanta]

as for sprinters stretching out, if they haven't done it before
john

Hi John,
If this means going from sprint to 2 turn route distance by FAR this is my biggest weakness working races. I have come to hate these guys with a passion.

I have learned the hard way by cash flying outa my pocket to move on and now pass these quickly :)

Richie

[john del riccio]

Hi John,
If this means going from sprint to 2 turn route distance by FAR this is my biggest weakness working races. I have come to hate these guys with a passion.

I have learned the hard way by cash flying outa my pocket to move on and now pass these quickly :)

Richie

richie,

look at the 7th at SA yesterday, a very good example. gomez is 4-5 on a horse named river glow with a good 6f rating earned at 6f and only Lady Le Belle had earned a better variant around two turns (my ratings). the favorite broke a bit slowly and never got within 3 lengths of the lead before fading badly. my opnion would have been changed if gomez horse was 4 or 5-1
but at 4-5 its just hard to take.

john

[Hosshead]

I have to agree with Ranchwest about those 4f/4.5f/ and even some 5f horses "stretching out" to a longer sprint, much less a distance race.
Even though it can be done, those short sprints are in a class all their own, with a lot of E% spent.
And for example a horse going from 4.5f to 6f is running 25% farther.

The reason that sprinters (6f/6.5f/7f) stretching out to a distance have an advantage over routers shortening up, (all things being equal, which I know they never are),.....is simply because of position.

He (sprinter) is already in front (winning) at some point(s) in the race, and is the one to beat. Now whether or not he can hang on is the question. But at this point in the race, you have to beat him to win.
Where a router shortening up is usually behind and already beaten until he passes the rest.

The same is true in match races. The leader usually has the advantage because he is "the one to beat" during the race, not to mention the fact that he can control the pace.

This is not to say that there aren't "gems" to find, where a router (in a sprint) with a little speed and or class can romp home over a paceless/classless field.

Personally I don't rely on big distance changes (either way) for win betting, but including in the exotics is a must.

[Good4Now]

your post above w/ time hack 01:43.
The final paragraph, you make an excellent summation of the art of handicapping we surely should be trying to master. Good thread!

[betovernetcapper]

Re the 7th at Sa-River Glow was making his second lifetime start, into a group with multiple winners so his loss may have been due to lack of experience as much as ability at the distance. BTW this is an interesting race in terms of figs. I use Jim Cramers #s from HDW and the best lifetime dirt figs had the top 3 within one point and the top six within four. :)

[delayjf]

I have a conversion time I use with raw data and it works just fine. I LOVE evaluating 8f horses going 9f. What is even stronger is the 9f buck shortening up to 8 or 8.3 today.
I use 6.2 seconds per 1/2 furlong and apply it the SAME whether 5f to 6f or 8f to 9f.


Could you please explain your process above, not sure I follow.

[shanta]

Could you please explain your process above, not sure I follow.

RAW times:
5f - 1:00
5.5f - 106.2
6f - 112.4
6.5f - 119.1
7f - 125.3
7.5f - 132
8f - 138.2
8.3f - 142.4
8.5f - 144.4
9f - 151.1

6.2 seconds per half furlong increases.
4.2 seconds to go from 8f to 8.3f.
2 seconds to go from 8.3f to 8.5f

so for example if I am looking at a 6f raw time of 1:10 and am comparing that to a 7f line I project the 6f line out to 122.4

looking at 8f raw time of 1:36 and wanna project out to 9f the line is 148.4

that's it
Richie

[bobphilo]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]richie,


i think this example is a great thing to look at in real time so to speak. if we can identify races beforehand and discuss them for situations where 6f specialists are going 7f or farther and or we have routers cutting back that meet certain criteria, we can better see whats happening and try to determine why.

John,

I think that today's Fountain of Youth presents a good example of such a real time excercise. Nobiz Like Showbiz comes into the race with the best Beyer at today's 9 furlong distance of 97. However, Adore the Gold's has a last race figure of 102 at 6 1/2 F. He has recorded only a 90 at 1 1/6 miles but that was last Oct as a 2YO and he has matured since then.
Though call, but I'd say that, except for his one poor race in the Nashua, ATG has shown he can finish strongly after setting a good early pace so I'd give him the edge in the stretchout today. He should also be a better price than NLS too. Should be an interesting race.

Bob

[bobphilo]

I just realized another factor. Adore the Gold's improved figure in his last looks like it's the product of an early 3YO growth spurt. No Biz has been running fairly consistent figures in a narrow range from the begining and is due for a growth spurt himself. I'm going to have give this race a long look before picking.
In any case, this does present an interesting question of what happens on the stretchout.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I just realized another factor. Adore the Gold's improved figure in his last looks like it's the product of an early 3YO growth spurt. No Biz has been running fairly consistent figures in a narrow range from the begining and is due for a growth spurt himself. I'm going to have give this race a long look before picking.
In any case, this does present an interesting question of what happens on the stretchout.

Bob

Bob

ADORE THE GOLD is the 2nd fastest horse in the race around two turns. I have him two lengths slower than NBLSB but his race was at 1 1/16 mi, not 1 1/8.
The pace fig ADORE THE GOLD earned in that DEL was 4-5 lengths slower than what STORMELLO and SCAT DADDY showed in two turn races. However, ADORE THE GOLD showed very nice pace and finish ability last time going 6 1/2, his post will hurt. This isn't the type of stretchout that I was refering to, because this horse has already tried 2 turns. I don't see the winner wiring this field unless somehow they run the rest of the field off their feet. Lots of pace in here (unlike the TP race), the winner will likely need to rate.

JOhn

[douglasw32]

NBLSB

[bobphilo]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]Bob

ADORE THE GOLD is the 2nd fastest horse in the race around two turns. I have him two lengths slower than NBLSB but his race was at 1 1/16 mi, not 1 1/8.
The pace fig ADORE THE GOLD earned in that DEL was 4-5 lengths slower than what STORMELLO and SCAT DADDY showed in two turn races. However, ADORE THE GOLD showed very nice pace and finish ability last time going 6 1/2, his post will hurt. This isn't the type of stretchout that I was refering to, because this horse has already tried 2 turns. I don't see the winner wiring this field unless somehow they run the rest of the field off their feet. Lots of pace in here (unlike the TP race), the winner will likely need to rate.

John,

I see your point. Which speed ratings your using can make a difference. I tend to almost consider Adore the Gold as a a first time router since he may have matured since his 2YO route races. Again that depends on which ratings you use. Thanks for letting me know the variants you gave them. ATG has been able to rate before but I don't know if they'll try to rate him today.
Another thing that just came to mind is that Tagg tends to bring his horses to form slowly so No Biz could very well move up in his 2nd start since the layoff.

Bob

[bobphilo]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]Bob

However, ADORE THE GOLD showed very nice pace and finish ability last time going 6 1/2, his post will hurt.

Almost forgot about his post position. Outside draw with the short run to the 1st turn at Gulfstream with speed drawn inside of him is the kiss of death.

Bob

[Robert Fischer]

Adore The Gold has some potential for an upset. He looks like he can run a huge race if he gets every thing his way. I think he is about the third strongest horse in the stretch today considering the distance. Has an outside shot at a win, could also falter.

Stormellois a front-runner that could greatly influence this race. If Stormello can at least be in winning position coming into the turn (a length in front AND get first jump on Nobiz) it could open the door for Drums of Thunder if DoT rates a stalking trip.

[Robert Fischer]

...
Stormello is a front-runner that could greatly influence this race. If Stormello can at least be in winning position coming into the turn (a length in front AND get first jump on Nobiz) it could open the door for Drums of Thunder if DoT rates a stalking trip.

Make that Scat Daddy on the stalking trip.

[Tom]

That was one fine race to watch. Three horses put on a show.

[douglasw32]

Here is a good one for a real time sample...LOOKING AT SPEED FIGURES & DISTANCE.

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf

Who can beat the 110 of STEEL LIGHT from his last race in 2005
Can he go the mile - does the layoff hurt ? was 2nd off a similar rest and had a legit excuse. 2 Months later won at the mile with an 89 followed by a mile (sly) of 101 taken off the turf.

Did SILVER TREE get Prado after the last two excuses for a reason who can beat his 101 Mile showing or his 106 Mile (off the page) very consistent high numbers

OLD DODGE 105 Mile/100 Mile

ECCLESIASTIC 100 Mile showing or 101 mile (off the page) but most mile race in the 90's

GIANT WRECKER/ KISS THE KID /GIN AND SIN all ran 101/100 in last.

BETTER THAN BONDS ran 100' long ago going shorter and TIGANELLO ran a 100 once but a 99 in last.

BETTER THAN BONDS and KISS THE KID seem to be need to lead types (this is a pace forum)

GIN AND SIN/SILVER TREE/STEEL LIGHT all seem to have some good LP recently maybe throw OLD DODGE in that group. but recent on the page and recent by date only GIN AND SIN counts as recent.

GIANT WRECKER has a recent 5F work- has won on and off the pace but only one race over 100 and that was the last race.

GIANT WRECKER/STEEL LIGHT and SILVER TREE look to me like the most likely

If TIGANELLO is 3-1 should ECCLESIASTIC be 20-1

If the crowd makes SILVER TREE the favorite then the original question should be WILL anyone beat the 110 of STEEL LIGHT (5-1 ML)

Confused, I am...who has some insight ?

[Robert Fischer]

Steel Light's previous figures were prior to a long layoff and at sprint distances. I can't back him here. He was a winner and Clement is a wizard, I just have to look elsewhere.

Prado may have chosen Silver Tree because of the class edge.

[douglasw32]

Silver Tree- good exacta, for anyone who bet it.

[Robert Fischer]

Steel Light ran a big race off of the layoff, Silver Tree Just got up to win. The mile was covered in 132.

[raybo]

Quote: "Here is a good one for a real time sample...LOOKING AT SPEED FIGURES & DISTANCE.

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf (http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf)"

Don't know about the race you guys were discussing, but in the race from the link provided, I like the 7, but doubt he'll go off at anything close to the 12/1 ML. At 5/1 or higher he would get my money.

[Robert Fischer]

Quote: "Here is a good one for a real time sample...LOOKING AT SPEED FIGURES & DISTANCE.

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf (http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/brd_comp.pdf)"

Don't know about the race you guys were discussing, but in the race from the link provided, I like the 7, but doubt he'll go off at anything close to the 12/1 ML. At 5/1 or higher he would get my money.


7 looks like he could be one of the better animals in this race. Very possible he has a nice effort

likewise #5 Black Watch(solid form / nice works/johnnyv/tpletcher) is a nice overlay if he goes off at anything near 8/1.

The #11 looks to be the strongest

could be a decent race for exotics...

[douglasw32]

Wow the link auto changes...to the new free one.

So with GREYLOCK SCRATCHED, the question becomes who beats

LOCONIA's 92 at this distance. 89/92/89/88
at 1st glance looking at exact distance...no one...

Lets knock him down to one of his 89's at this distance..

R.J.'s BRIGADE 1 Turf start a 79, none at the distance, Jock not so hot on turf, good figs if it was a dirt run...breeding maybe? 80/79/93/89
[I'll take this one out]

CATCH MY SMOKE broke maiden 3 back at this distance with an 88- Will try to lead them all the way. 64/85/88/78
[I'll take this one out]

BLACK WATCH an 88 at this distance a 90 going a little longer. 88/90/78/80
[Slower then others of late]

DANCING FOREVER consistently faster but longer the exact distance looks lame, but that was his first start ever. 92/86/99/86

OLYMPIC 88 going shorter, higher figs on dirt. 88/84/95/91


EXTON could get it done at this distance. 93/86/88/85

I see LOCONIA | DANCING FOREVER | OLYMPIC | EXTON

now I have to narrow them...

OLYMPIC can he go longer on the turf after the late close at 1m (1st time turf), been doing worst since going to Mott from Frankel.
Jock stays here instead of Exton. this one may try to lead and that will not work well (imho)

So I will toss them both-Exton is not good enough for the Jock and I don't think this one is going ot get the added ground to well.

That leaves me with DANCING FOREVER New Jock,three works since last,needs it fast up front...I Don't see that happening.

and LOCONIA...

LOOKS LIKE I JUST PICKED THE FAVORITE...and answered my question...

No One can beat his 92 at todays distance, again only one mans opinion.


------------------------------------------

[Robert Fischer]

I see LOCONIA | DANCING FOREVER | OLYMPIC | EXTON

------------------------------------------

:jump:


loconia/exton/olympic/dancing forever

loconia won in hand,

with dancing forever had a lot of horse and was flying at the end to get fourth after a bit of a rough trip

wasn't a bad tri or super - especially if you singled the #11

[douglasw32]

6.80 win is all I got out of it...but thats ok I guess.

[douglasw32]

Any way this is how I see the question I originally asked, I think I answered myself though... I start with the best FIG at todays distance and see "who can beat it" sometimes the answer is no one, sometimes it is another one. ???

[raybo]

Any way this is how I see the question I originally asked, I think I answered myself though... I start with the best FIG at todays distance and see "who can beat it" sometimes the answer is no one, sometimes it is another one. ???

I try to stay away from the fav and will accept a loss on a higher priced horse, with no reservations. I bet supers exclusively and only have to hit about 8% to show a very nice profit long term. If I were a win bettor I would never bet the fav unless he/she was at least 7/2, otherwise that would be a losing proposition (on the favs I mean, because they only win 1/3 of their races). I would wait for a good overlay, meaning the fav can't win and another horse has an excellent chance if things go right. In the long run, if you are patient enough, your win % will be the same, 33% or higher, so anything 7/2 or higher produces a profit.

[betchatoo]

I try to stay away from the fav and will accept a loss on a higher priced horse, with no reservations. I bet supers exclusively and only have to hit about 8% to show a very nice profit long term. If I were a win bettor I would never bet the fav unless he/she was at least 7/2, otherwise that would be a losing proposition (on the favs I mean, because they only win 1/3 of their races). I would wait for a good overlay, meaning the fav can't win and another horse has an excellent chance if things go right. In the long run, if you are patient enough, your win % will be the same, 33% or higher, so anything 7/2 or higher produces a profit.
If you could get 33% winners, 5/2 would provide you with a very nice profit.

[raybo]

If you could get 33% winners, 5/2 would provide you with a very nice profit.

I'm allowing for the inevitable long losing stretch and assuming your bankroll isn't unlimited. 7/2 affords a pretty good cushion against that. 5/2 wouldn't allow enough to keep you in the game under such a scenario. IMO, no one's win % stays constant for all time.