Odds Line?

[BIG RED]

I would love to see the results of this. Reading from here for a few years now, I swear there is a large number of cappers who employ an odds-line, or is there? I don't recall seeing it asked.

[sjk]

Count me in.

No need to swear Red

[BIG RED]

Cute steve cute. You do an odds line for your exactas don't you?

[sjk]

Yes. I make win and place lines for all the horses and calculate the bets from comparing the probables with my requirements based on the lines.

[Overlay]

Yes, for win bets and exotics.

[ranchwest]

For me, the real answer wasn't an option. My odds line is approximate and in my head. I don't prepare a formal line. So, I answered "no".

Personally, I've never been able to lean on a line and not be excessively influenced by it. It causes me to go to one extreme or the other, wanting a sure thing or a bomb. I'm sure other people feel much differently. Different strokes.

[Perlnalysis]

It's tough to rely on an odds line when horses odds routinely plummet in the last minute before post time due to computer whales.

[BIG RED]

It's tough to rely on an odds line when horses odds routinely plummet in the last minute before post time due to computer whales.

Interesting enough, 50/50 right now. I thought for sure it would be top heavy on the yes side.

"It's tough to rely on an odds line when horses odds routinely plummet in the last minute before post time due to computer whales."

I agree, but if you try to stay at 3-1 or above, you are doing an odds line, can't control the dips later. I use one on my longshot spot plays. I'm one of the few that said yes there. I laso try to keep my win bets at a certain level odds, but playing live, most seem to dip below at the end of the race, some don't but most do. We all have to deal with that.

[zerosky]

I use the ML as another piece of jigsaw, occasionally if I am handicapping with 'early' data I will sketch out my own line.

If the public line is significantly different on a particular horse I will take another look at the beast, especially FTS...

[Good4Now]

To some, after making 4 or 5 rough drafts, I always get out my finest stationary AND practice my penmanship BEFORE I write my letter to Santa Claus....

Isn't this the same thing as making an odds line?

Whatever happened to shutting off the betting a full minute before they start
loading the horses to prevent these last second crushes????

[shanta]

Big,
I voted no.

[JimG]

I voted yes, but I use it in a very unorthodox manner.

[Lefty]

I said no, but only because i've never seen one or created one that I had confidence in. I do use min odds though.

[BIG RED]

Almost a dead heat, I am surprised.

[BetHorses!]

Yes always

[BIG RED]

I voted yes, but I use it in a very unorthodox manner.

Care to share Jim?

[Murph]

I voted NO. What lefty said -

I said no, but only because i've never seen one or created one that I had confidence in. I do use min odds though.Murph

[Greyfox]

I always suspected the visitors to paceadvantage and it's members must be an elite group.
At this point the above poll is reporting that 45 % or so of the respondents are using an odds line.
I see lots of people at our track using the odds board, without programs no less,
and then betting. But my guess is that less than 1 % of them have a clue about what the odds on any animal in a race should be prior to looking at the tote board. And, I don't know of any of them who make their own odds lines.
A rare group here indeed.

[ranchwest]

So, the majority who are not using a line are not elite?

[Greyfox]

So, the majority who are not using a line are not elite?

My intent with the word "elite" is a reference to an "exclusive" group.
So...used in that manner, the majority are not elite. In this instance, as I am employing it, the word should not be taken as meaning superior or inferior.

[JackS]

I've tried it but don't seem to be very good at it. I generally accept the ML at most tracks as the probable true odds minus the take.
Odds fluxuations seem to be more interesting. Obvious horses with low Ml's that are not taking their fair share of money at the window are strange occurances that warn bettors to stay away is one example. Multiple luke warm favorites in the same race such as three horses at 5/2. Assuming all 3 horse are acceptible as wagers, the place pool might hold the answer. The horse with the least amount of money in this pool could be the tip-off that (for unknown reasons) the horse is being overbet in the win pool. IMO this is the horse most likely to win the race. However, since the determination has already been made that the horse is overbet, a win bet is out of the question.
The horse should be used on top and only on top in exoctic wagers.
Other strange happenings on the odds board should try to be noted.
I guess my vote goes to "no".

[Greyfox]

Sorry Big Red,

I think that there is something fundamentally wrong with the question itself.
Over 1,000 viewers have looked in here on this post . 20 + have written in.
44 % of those responding to the survey , whoever they may be , and that probably includes people who are not writing in, have claimed they use an odds line.
I don't see anyone, none, zero, at all, at our track, using an odds line of their own, except for the tote board.
I use the tote board every day, or at least I look at it for value.
Maybe 95 % of us use an odds line if it's the tote board.
Maybe 1% of us use an odds line if it's our own creation.
And that's why I said "a rare group."
So personaly I think that you're survey question itself is flawed.
I've got a bridge for sale if anyone wants to believe the results of your survey.

[ranchwest]

The wording could have been better, but I suspect the answers basically reflect the intended responses of this group. Finding "value", often suggested on this board to involve the comparison of an odds line to the tote board, has been a very popular topic on this board.

"no, no need to" is probably not the only or best wording for the negative responses.

[BIG RED]

I think maybe a lot of people are responding to a minimum odds line, that could be it.

I said I do to my spot plays and I do. I know how I am and the horses perform in turf, rtes., spts. etc, and give all types of odds to the different types of races according to certain percentages that I have created, on how they hopefully will perform. I could not do this every race every day, no way, I don't program and I play more than one track.

Flawed, there's a kink in my armor, oh my......

(I own the BBridge)

[Hammerhead]

Whats a odds line?
Where is the bridge located?
Can I install toll booths?

[nobeyerspls]

I would love to see the results of this. Reading from here for a few years now, I swear there is a large number of cappers who employ an odds-line, or is there? I don't recall seeing it asked.

I don't know what an odds-line is so I didn't vote. I never play a horse straight if the odds are less tha 7/2. I expected 15-1 on a horse today and only got 6-1 but I couldn't pass just because she was bet down. Do people actually do that?

[cj]

I don't know what an odds-line is so I didn't vote. I never play a horse straight if the odds are less tha 7/2. I expected 15-1 on a horse today and only got 6-1 but I couldn't pass just because she was bet down. Do people actually do that?

Only the ones that want to win long term.

[skate]

I would love to see the results of this. Reading from here for a few years now, I swear there is a large number of cappers who employ an odds-line, or is there? I don't recall seeing it asked.

odds are the only relevant having to do with Money.

so, it would depend.
am i trying to make money?

[Lefty]

An oddsline before the race is a projection of what the odds should be. It's also a scientific guess at what the horses actual odds should be. The ML is not a good oddsline because a good oddsline maker is trying to project what odds the public will make the horse.
If you thght the odds on a horse shoulda been 15-1 and you took 6-1 that's a longterm loser IF you're good at making a correct oddsline.

[NYPlayer]

I think an oddsline is useful, but only as a general guide. I only employ my own oddsline for certain races- usually a big stakes race. I think an oddsline is most helpful on races with several entrants where a few top horses can be rated more or less equally, as sometimes the betting gets out of hand and one more horses go ignored.

[nobeyerspls]

Only the ones that want to win long term.

My first response was to say that you're dead wrong but then I thought that we may be betting in different ways. This filly was on top of a very nice exacta which I had a few times and she was part of two decent pick 3's. I bet only small amounts to win/place and use exotics to leverage up. You might be a heavy straight bettor with some different wagering rules.
For the record, I'm way ahead long term and I'm having my best year ever.
Lastly, the hunch bet of the day at Fort Erie today- CJ's Cat! You might want to look past the fact that this is his 25th attempt to break his maiden.

[nobeyerspls]

An oddsline before the race is a projection of what the odds should be. It's also a scientific guess at what the horses actual odds should be. The ML is not a good oddsline because a good oddsline maker is trying to project what odds the public will make the horse.
If you thght the odds on a horse shoulda been 15-1 and you took 6-1 that's a longterm loser IF you're good at making a correct oddsline.

See my response to CJ regarding leveraging horses with exotics. If you only make large straight bets, you might handle a horse like this differently. This filly was 9-1 just before they loaded and dropped sharply on late bets. I'm guessing that the barn was involved. That only affected the win pool as the exotics were still pretty nice.
My handicapping skills reached their peak several years ago but it's only lately that I got the wagering part right. I'll continue to make my small win/place bets on horses like this and single them in exotics.

[cj's dad]

Whatever happened to shutting off the betting a full minute before they start loading the horses to prevent these last second crushes????

I've seen this comment here before and here is what I don't get about the logic, no offense intended, just food for thought.

1 - While it is annoying to see the odds on your wager drop as the race is being run, what about when the opposite happens?

2 - If the pools are closed at 1 minute prior to post, the odds may not change as the race is run, but they will still be changing as the runners are loaded in the gate.

3 - The tracks will never go for this as their thought process would be that they would lose money. If they could take bets as the horses approached the first turn, they would.

4 - At some point, you have to submit your wager and if you like the odds on your selection at say 1 min 30 seconds prior to post and bet, and a whale lays $10k 5 seconds later on your pick, you've still been knocked down in your odds

5 - I just don't see the idea it solving anything. What am I missing here:confused:

[cj's dad]

Lastly, the hunch bet of the day at Fort Erie today- CJ's Cat!

Not to change your mind but;

He's never owned one and I'm pretty sure he don't like them either:lol:

[cj]

5 - I just don't see the idea it solving anything. What am I missing here:confused:

It eliminates the possibility that some people are betting after the gate opens. That is the only real benefit that I see, but it is a big one.

[MakinItHappen]

It all comes down to how you interpret the poll questions...

If you interpret the question to be What % of handicappers prepare a formal line to use in aiding their wager decision making process ALWAYS, then I think 41% is ridiculously high... even if you assume those participating in the poll are more sophisticated than the average bettor.

If you interpret the poll question to ask What % of handicappers take into consideration the current odds vs. a gut-feel fair odds then I think the % is much higher, as even the most novice of bettors would think twice about betting a 1-9 shot.

I am interpretting it to mean that a very formal process exists. In this case, I feel that very few, if any, could honestly answer, A: Yes, Always :lol:. As for B: Yes, only on spot plays; I am interpretting this to mean sometimes. Perhaps, this could actually be close to the 41% which is currently being shown for A. As for C: Only in Exotics... hmmmm, not sure why anyone who troubled with this process would ONLY use it in exotics, but perhaps if you were a die-hard Exacta player, I could see it. As for D: No, no reason to. I think we are capturing a wide group here. It perhaps includes those whose wagering practices don't find it significant, ie - long shot and perhaps tri, super and Pick x players, and of course the group that sees absolutely no value in it, period.

Personally, I only do this about 25% of the time, but I feel that this represents some of my best and smartest action. I typically use Bris data, my own handicapping judgement and a spreadsheet to develop my line. I also make sure that my "minimum bettable odds line" is developed on "fair odds" vs. "ML type odds" which when you add them up total to 120ish % due to the track take-out being factored into them. I felt like the most accurate answer for me was B. I wish I could answer A, but I am not there yet! :confused:

Thank You to Big Red:ThmbUp: for setting up the Poll! While it may not be perfect, it has initiated some good discussion!

Best of Luck To Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[nobeyerspls]

Not to change your mind but;

He's never owned one and I'm pretty sure he don't like them either:lol:

If he did own one it might run faster than this horse. I mean the domestic type and not a cheetah.

[gm10]

I always calculate odds lines. For certain race types and horse types, I make a systematic bet based on whether there is value in the real-time odds wrt my own odds.
Here are the results from the last 7 quarters:

Quarter Strike ROI ROI 2 Winners Bets
2006-1 0.316 0.267 0.159 54 171
2006-2 0.277 0.274 0.038 107 386
2006-3 0.297 0.244 0.023 142 478
2006-4 0.317 0.251 0.112 57 180
2007-1 0.418 0.268 0.537 76 182
2007-2 0.313 0.26 0.127 120 383
2007-3 0.29 0.253 0.024 132 455




(ROI = Kelly, ROI2 = unit stakes)
There is a profit, but it's a tough game and has taken me about 4 years of endless development and modeling.

[BIG RED]

gm...just curios.

Is this placing bets against European bookies or

wagering in mingled pools here in the States?

[BETKING]

If a horse is not even with or below its Morning Line at post time, his chances of winning is slim to none!! :bang:

[Lefty]

Betking, sorry but i think your post is, well, kinda ridiculous.

[BETKING]

Lefty,

I find it very difficult to convey anything of value to an amatuer.

[Lefty]

Bet, been at this a long time. ML makers just not that good. Most of my profits come from horses that go off above their ML.

[Tom]

If a horse is not even with or below its Morning Line at post time, his chances of winning is slim to none!! :bang:

Where is your data?

[nobeyerspls]

If a horse is not even with or below its Morning Line at post time, his chances of winning is slim to none!! :bang:

The final odds are the collective wisdom of all those betting the race. I see many players influenced by the board in two negative ways. When late money comes in and the 5-2 drops to 8-5 "they" are playing him so he must be good. When the 5-1 morning line goes off at 10-1 it was because "they" don't like him so he doesn't have a chance.
Many on here cash big tickets on live longshots who are most often huge overlays. I count on the public creating low-priced horses that have no chance to win and they haven't failed me yet.

[riskman]

From my experience, the betting line portion of the handicapping process does not exist for most of the everyday horseplayers. Even for players who put serious money through the windows. Just look around if you are at a race track, OTB, or racebook in a casino. You will see all kinds of notations on their DRF , sheets or PP's. It is rare to see a player actually assigns a probability or price they will accept on their contenders. If you have done the work to handicap you should have an idea what you will accept as a payoff.
When you get into playing the game for profit instead of for winners, you will ask, "Who is the value?" The name of the game is to become decision-oriented, not selection-oriented.That is a whole other subject.

[duckhunter3]

I ALWAYS use an odds line on win, place and show bets, and calculate fair pay on DD's and exactas and compare to the "will pays".

the odds or betting line is pretty much computer generated although I do tinker with it by playing some "what if" games. I try to demand odds around double what I perceive fair odds to be in ANY bet, to protect against mistakes in my fair odds, and other vagaries of horse racing that affect the outcome often- horse stumbling, getting blocked, jockey losing whip, etc., etc., ad infinitum, ad nauseam.

Of course I lose some action being that restrictive but I agree with other posts here, that VALUE and decision orientation is the way to go to make money. If you are just playing for fun, then you can be selection oriented and if you are good enough I guess you can win. But actually that is tougher than just betting the value among the real contenders.

Just my thoughts.

[Pell Mell]

I don't know what an odds-line is so I didn't vote. I never play a horse straight if the odds are less than 7/2. I expected 15-1 on a horse today and only got 6-1 but I couldn't pass just because she was bet down. Do people actually do that?

Ditto! I'm a spot player and most of the time my horses are bet down and the biggest majority of my winners are bet down from the ML. When I say bet down I mean from a 20/1 ML down to 8-10/1. I usually take this as a positive sign but I have a minny as to what I'll accept. I also have a particular type of play that the public almost always overlooks. Yesterday I had a play of each type. One was 20/1 ML and closed at 8/1 and it won. I feel sure the stable bet this horse and I would have been a fool to pass it up because it was "ONLY" 8/1. The other play was 15/1 ML and closed at 44/1 and ran 2nd. The horses that scare me the most are horses that are bet way down to favoritism and I can't see any reason why it should be bet.

[duckhunter3]

The opposite can happen also- namely, a long shot becoming even more of a long shot at post (going up from ML) and still winning.

Yesterday, in TDN 7, #10 was 10-1 ML as I recall and went off at 45-1. This horse was one of my 4 contenders and pace projections (which are just educated guesses, in my opinion) showed him to finish within 1 length (.2 seconds) of the 8-5 post time favorite. Since we keep time at race tracks in antiquated fifth's of a second, this is a virtually meaningless and indistinguishable difference.

How can anyone resist a contender at 45-1 whose pace figures show he really can win. Well, he did win and only a few bucks on a win bet made a very nice return, and the exacta of 10 over the underlays paid $464.

Betting lines and isolating contenders are very important considerations. this horse had fair odds of 6-1 on my betting line and was a win bet for me at 9-1. 45-1 is almost an 800% advantage over fair odds.

Of course I did waste an exacta bet of the horses that could run to the pars over the 10, but with this return that was no big deal.

[dvlander]

I love the concept of oddslines. However, I'm wondering if anyone else experiences the same phenomenom that I do when using them.

Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.

Yes, this is a virgin post.

[dvlander]

I meant to say "go to post at 4-1".

[Jerfi]

Everyone uses odds lines.. .whether they say they do, or not.

Example: If you 'just pick horses' ... and the one you pick is a 1/9 horse on the board, you probably will not bet it. That's using an odds line.

If you just pick horses, but won't bet anything less than 2/1...that's still using an odds line.

If you select a horse that's 7/1 on the board, but you 'know' it will win, then, odds are unimportant, perhaps, but you still consider it.

[duckhunter3]

I am not sure I understand your dilemma, so maybe what I am saying here is not right.

You seem concerned that your odds line is accurate but only gives you even money. Here is how I view it.

The odds line if accurate only tells you one important thing- the percentage of winners you have to have to BREAK EVEN.

We don't want to break even. We want a profit. So the way I handle it is I don't bet horses who are going off at what my odds line says is their accurate chance of winning. I only bet those that are DOUBLE (or close to double) what my odds line says are their fair chances. So if my odds line says Horse X is fair odds of 2-1, I want close to 4-1 before I bet. Or I don't bet that horse, and maybe not that race. We want a premium for a profit. And there are so many uncontrollable things in a race that can affect the outcome, you must give yourself some cushion to win.

So I look at a bunch of tracks, and analyze a bunch of races, and select, say 15 to consider betting, and I am lucky if I bet 5 or 10 of those. But those bets will be at a big premium, and over the long haul, I don't think you can lose doing it that way.

please excuse if I didn't respond to what you were concerned about.

All the best.

[dvlander]

We don't want to break even. We want a profit. So the way I handle it is I don't bet horses who are going off at what my odds line says is their accurate chance of winning. I only bet those that are DOUBLE (or close to double) what my odds line says are their fair chances. So if my odds line says Horse X is fair odds of 2-1, I want close to 4-1 before I bet.
All the best.

Thanks for your answer Duck and I understand what you are saying and the concept of only playing substantial overlays. My point was simply that those overlays that I project to be fair odds 2-1 that go to post at 4-1 do not typically win at the same 33% clip that all my projected 2-1 contenders do as a whole.

They win enough to be marginally profitable but I think it is easy to get in trouble with odds lines if one calculates an edge to be more than what it really is. All projected 2-1 contenders are not created equal.

[duckhunter3]

Thanks for your answer Duck and I understand what you are saying and the concept of only playing substantial overlays. My point was simply that those overlays that I project to be fair odds 2-1 that go to post at 4-1 do not typically win at the same 33% clip that all my projected 2-1 contenders do as a whole.

They win enough to be marginally profitable but I think it is easy to get in trouble with odds lines if one calculates an edge to be more than what it really is. All projected 2-1 contenders are not created equal.

Absolutely correct, dvlander. any time the public disagrees substantially with your opinion on a horse's chance of winning, there is always the chance that you have mis-judged the horse's chances of winning.

HOWEVER, if the odds are high enough, I don't see how you get hurt. In otherwords, if the post time odds are 4-1, the horse in the long run should win at least 1 in 5 races. And if THE PUBLIC IS WRONG, and he really is a 3-1 horse, then you have A VERY, VERY NICE EDGE. But if the public is right, you just break even.

It all gets down to who is right and who is wrong about the horse's chances over the long haul.

[duckhunter3]

To take this a little further, dvlander is rightfully concerned that his horses with fair odds of 2-1 on his betting line which go to post at 4-1 don't win as often as 2-1 horses should win. No doubt that is true because the public is better at making a line than any of us or maybe all of us combined.

But, if you demand, say, almost double in post time odds over your fair odds line, then you will be easily compensating for your "overestimation" of the horse's chances to win in your betting line.

I realize you miss some plays. but this should be a safe and profitable way to go, IMHO.

[ManeMediaMogul]

If you make a line that reflects the horses' true chances of winning, the 8/5 shot on your line should win more than the 4/1 shot on your line - regardless of what the public makes them. That is the whole idea.

Also, the whiners among you who are kevetching about last minute odds drops - it goes the other way too. I made a horse 2/1 at Gulfstream...bet him at 3/1 and ended up with 5/1 when the late money fancied another runner.

Going to the Horseplayers Expo last year and listening to Barry Meadow changed my life as a horseplayer. There is no doubt in my mind that a true odds line is the way, the truth and the light for successful turf speculation.

Most players don't take the time and effort and that gives you an automatic edge!

[Hank]

If you make a line that reflects the horses' true chances of winning, the 8/5 shot on your line should win more than the 4/1 shot on your line - regardless of what the public makes them. That is the whole idea.

Also, the whiners among you who are kevetching about last minute odds drops - it goes the other way too. I made a horse 2/1 at Gulfstream...bet him at 3/1 and ended up with 5/1 when the late money fancied another runner.

Going to the Horseplayers Expo last year and listening to Barry Meadow changed my life as a horseplayer. There is no doubt in my mind that a true odds line is the way, the truth and the light for successful turf speculation.

Most players don't take the time and effort and that gives you an automatic edge!

This is true no doubt,but given the large amount of unknowables how accurate is any capper created odds line??Most computer created lines rely on a single pace line[ I think]and this is dicey at best.

[Tipster1]

[QUOTE=dvlander]
Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.
[QUOTE]

This can be all tested and queried through a database. And don't worry this happens in every odds line I ever tested. And I'm not talking about 200 contenders but testing them through tens of thousands of races. To date I never seen one that showed profits. Not one.

What this means that even if your odds line wins EXACTLY at the expected rate which I seen some actually do. This means your 2/1 shots win 33%, your 4/1 shots win 20%, etc. and this is OVERALL. The problem is those specific odd value horses are not all created equal. If you retest those 2/1 shots when they are are at under 2/1 post odds they win much higher than 33%. When you retest them at over 2/1 post odds they win way under 33%. So we can not simply bet any odds line horse when they are going off at higher odds than the expected win rate and think we are going to show profits. If this was possible we would be have it made.

As I said every odds line that I ever tested through large sample, yes even the very accurate ones, never have extracted profits when based on using them against real post time odds. Not even close to breakeven! And yes I ran them against all increments of odd line values when compared to actual post time values.

[Hank]

[QUOTE=dvlander]
Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.
[QUOTE]

This can be all tested and queried through a database. And don't worry this happens in every odds line I ever tested. And I'm not talking about 200 contenders but testing them through tens of thousands of races. To date I never seen one that showed profits. Not one.

What this means that even if your odds line wins EXACTLY at the expected rate which I seen some actually do. This means your 2/1 shots win 33%, your 4/1 shots win 20%, etc. and this is OVERALL. The problem is those specific odd value horses are not all created equal. If you retest those 2/1 shots when they are are at under 2/1 post odds they win much higher than 33%. When you retest them at over 2/1 post odds they win way under 33%. So we can not simply bet any odds line horse when they are going off at higher odds than the expected win rate and think we are going to show profits. If this was possible we would be have it made.

As I said every odds line that I ever tested through large sample, yes even the very accurate ones, never have extracted profits when based on using them against real post time odds. Not even close to breakeven! And yes I ran them against all increments of odd line values when compared to actual post time values.

nice post Tipster.

[jasperson]

I use my own computer generated oddsline based on Dr Quirins book and using a database of my own that has over 10000 races in it with the results. My pp data is either from bris or tsn horse. I rarely take pp sheets to the races and use my oddline report almost exclusively because it has most of the data I use to handicap. Such as
1 Speed rating average of last 2 race
2 Days idle
3 Finished last race
4 earning per start
5 class up or down
6 Speed ratings of last 4 starts
7 best back speed
8 best speed at distance
9 wins at distance
10 average class
11 top class
12 trip coments last race
13 class of last race
14 distance of last race
15 best speed last 4 with the distance
16 mud earning per start
17 probability in percentage of horse winning
18 morning line odds
19 weight change up or down from last race
My top probability wins 29 % of the races with a negative roi of -$.17.
You can say with a negative roi why use it? But I know what races it is good at and which it is not. Maiden races with a lot of 1st time starters and turf race it does poorly at, but this is where I make my best scores. This is where the other information allows me to make a good handicapping decision. It does well at predicting winners in claiming sprints and not so much in claiming routes. Forget turf sprints. The strong point of my oddsline is that I download the data the program hacks it out in nothing flat and most time reguired is to print it out and basicaly I am read for the track.:)

[Kelso]

7 best back speed
8 best speed at distance


JAS,
How do you distinguish between these two data items? (Bris identifies "back speed" as today's distance +/- a half furlong ... I think. Do you use this definition?) Also, how many "days idle" to you consider generally best?

Thank you.

[singunner]

Jasperson, does betting your top probability every race for those 10,000 races average 29%, or does it not bet on every single race?

[jasperson]

Jasperson, does betting your top probability every race for those 10,000 races average 29%, or does it not bet on every single race?
It bets every race. I don't enter races on an off track because I think that would cloud the data. I use only races on fast tracks.

[jasperson]

JAS,
How do you distinguish between these two data items? (Bris identifies "back speed" as today's distance +/- a half furlong ... I think. Do you use this definition?) Also, how many "days idle" to you consider generally best?

Thank you.
Best speed is the best speed rating that the horse got in his last 10 races regardless of the distance. Best speed at distance is best speed rating he got at today's distance. I want to know what he can possibly do at today's distance.

[Overlay]

It bets every race. I don't enter races on an off track because I think that would cloud the data. I use only races on fast tracks.

Doesn't item 16 in your list ("mud earning per start") relate to off tracks, or am I misinterpreting the word "mud"?

[riskman]

This is true no doubt,but given the large amount of unknowables how accurate is any capper created odds line??Most computer created lines rely on a single pace line[ I think]and this is dicey at best.


Wrong

[jasperson]

Doesn't item 16 in your list ("mud earning per start") relate to off tracks, or am I misinterpreting the word "mud"?
Yes it is a off track ranking. I use it in case the track turns bad and I will not bet if the horse is not high ranked in off track earnings.
Jack

[rufus999]

I look for exotic races with beatable (out of the money) favorites.

rufus

[fmolf]

I said no, but only because i've never seen one or created one that I had confidence in. I do use min odds though.
i make one all the time and i use barry meadows exacta chart to tell me what combos are overlaid and which are underlays.....min odds that you'll accept is basically an odds line..20-25% to the field the rest to my contenders

[fmolf]

The final odds are the collective wisdom of all those betting the race. I see many players influenced by the board in two negative ways. When late money comes in and the 5-2 drops to 8-5 "they" are playing him so he must be good. When the 5-1 morning line goes off at 10-1 it was because "they" don't like him so he doesn't have a chance.
Many on here cash big tickets on live longshots who are most often huge overlays. I count on the public creating low-priced horses that have no chance to win and they haven't failed me yet.
i concur....the only time i give any weight to the morning line is for maiden specials when their odds are below their morning line look out...especially first time starters in a field with a few of them!

[cmoore]

I always look at the odds board and try to find an overlay compared to the horses chances. But I never make an odds line before hand.