MORNING LINE ODDS

[punteray]

Who figures the Morning Line Odds?


Speed I know! Horses, I'm not so sure!!

Ray

[boomman]

Ray: The morning line odds are determined by the morning line maker who is employed by the track to handicap the "public". It is his job to estimate at what "win" odds the public will make a particular horse. Although he or she does use handicapping the race into the equation, solid morning line makers are able to excel (that is to say to predict closely at what closing odds EACH horse in the race will go off at) when they are able to become adept in successfully predicting wagering patterns at that track,
ie: the public's favorite trainers, jockeys, owners, etc.....

Boomer

[Skanoochies]

Do most cappers on this site really think ML odds are that important? Do we really care what some local track person foresees how we are going to bet? I generally feel I have a pretty good idea on my own how the betting will go, and overlays and such shouldn`t be based on ML odds in my opinion, as they are strictly subjective.
You base the value of each horse in the race on your own capping, and judge the potential prices from there.
Is ML odds that important to data based programs and such? :confused:

[GameTheory]

Do most cappers on this site really think ML odds are that important? Do we really care what some local track person foresees how we are going to bet? I generally feel I have a pretty good idea on my own how the betting will go, and overlays and such shouldn`t be based on ML odds in my opinion, as they are strictly subjective.
You base the value of each horse in the race on your own capping, and judge the potential prices from there.
Is ML odds that important to data based programs and such? :confused:Important? I don't know, but the ML can be useful for certain things. For instance, if you want to predict the final odds (roughly) and have got no other way to do it, the ML is better than nothing. (I know some people who make their bets in the morning, and simply throw out any of their picks that are ML faves -- it helps keep the ROI up.)

Also, the public tends to be swayed somewhat in their betting by the ML, so noticing the actual odds vs. the ML odds can be insightful into what the public is thinking...

[Pell Mell]

Do most cappers on this site really think ML odds are that important? Do we really care what some local track person foresees how we are going to bet? I generally feel I have a pretty good idea on my own how the betting will go, and overlays and such shouldn`t be based on ML odds in my opinion, as they are strictly subjective.
You base the value of each horse in the race on your own capping, and judge the potential prices from there.
Is ML odds that important to data based programs and such? :confused:

Morning lines may not be important to many here but they do have a big effect on P-3s, 4s, and 6s. Handicappers that make a line, or even handicap for that matter, are in a minority. And there is the matter of perception, meaning what is important to some is irrelevant to others.

[boomman]

Pellmell wrote: Morning lines may not be important to many here but they do have a big effect on P-3s, 4s, and 6s. Handicappers that make a line, or even handicap for that matter, are in a minority. And there is the matter of perception, meaning what is important to some is irrelevant to others.

Pell: You are 100% correct! M/L odds definitely have a huge effect on multi-race wagers, as many people "lean" on the m/l to make their decisions for them when wagering on multiple races. Another thing that happens is a poor morning line also effects wagering and it shouldn't take experienced players long to figure out where the bad morning lines "lie" and how to be able to take advantage of the poor play that results from them!;)

Boomer

[Perlnalysis]

Has anybody ever conducted an analysis on final odds in relation to morning line odds? It would be interesting to see what the ROI is on final odds that are:

*>20% lower than ML Odds

*10-20% lower

*0-10% lower

*0-10% higher

*10-20% higher

*>20% higher

My guess is that the horses that take significantly more action than ML odds probably have a better ROI. Someone has to be making money using this angle.

[punteray]

What are some formulas to figure the morning line odds? I ask this because I have never delved into morning lines.:blush:

Thanks

Ray

Speed I know! Horses, I'm not so sure!!

[bobbyb]

Gordon Pine has a little study up in his Track Archives. You'll find it here:

www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010202.htm

bobbyb

[bobbyb]

Apologies for the (i) I put in your name - old age is setting in......

bobby

[Greyfox]

Should the morning line odds maker also be the public handicapper?
I am aware of one track that does this.
The morning line odds maker sets the morning line odds.
That afternoon he does his public analysis which is often different than the morning line odds.
For example he might set one horse at 2-1 in the morning line, and then in the afternoon tell the public that "I think he's a false favorite."
For me there is a conflict of interest in that. He's had his hand in making the bloody horse the favorite and then he's got the gall to say that the runner is a false favorite.
Personally, I don't think that the morning line odds maker should also be the public handicapper.

[Perlnalysis]

Thanks Bobby, those are some interesting #s.

[boomman]

Greyfox asked:

Should the morning line odds maker also be the public handicapper?
I am aware of one track that does this.
The morning line odds maker sets the morning line odds.
That afternoon he does his public analysis which is often different than the morning line odds.
For example he might set one horse at 2-1 in the morning line, and then in the afternoon tell the public that "I think he's a false favorite."
For me there is a conflict of interest in that. He's had his hand in making the bloody horse the favorite and then he's got the gall to say that the runner is a false favorite.
Personally, I don't think that the morning line odds maker should also be the public handicapper.

First of all, let me state for the record that I don't think the public handicapper and morning line odds maker should be the same person, not necessarily because there's a conflict of interest, but because they are TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT JOBS! Remember, the morning line maker's job is to handicap the PUBLIC and the handicapper's job is to handicap the RACE. So when a guy sets a morning line favorite only to later proclaim that he "sees this horse as a false favorite" there is no conflict in that of itself as long as the line maker is selecting the correct false favorite based on how he knows the public at that particular track is prone to bet those particular connections, as opposed to a conflict coming into play only if that horse was made the morning line fav just to promote wagering action on him....... Since the two situations would be hard to differentiate, you wouldn't want those two jobs to be handled by the same person, and I would think the track that is doing that is only interested in saving money and not in the racing fan! We have two track handicappers at Yavapai including myself, and neither one of us is the morning line maker.....

Boomer

[Greyfox]

We agree boomer. The problem is a large segment of the public simply buy a program without PP's. They see the morning line as "handicapping of the race"
rather than "handicapping of the public." Hence when they see 2-1 next to a runner's name they are assuming that whoever made that line is giving this runner 2-1 odds for the win.
I would venture to guess that the majority of horse players at a large public track would not know that the morning line is the estimate of how the public will bet, as you have described it here vs. reasonable odds on the runner.

[boomman]

Greyfox wrote:I would venture to guess that the majority of horse players at a large public track would not know that the morning line is the estimate of how the public will bet, as you have described it here vs. reasonable odds on the runner.

Fox: We definitely agree on this one! That's why I always do my best to explain this as one of our first topics when working with novices in "welcome to the track" seminars!

Boomer