SPOT PLAY !!!

[John]

Hi Guys,
Do you know of an Angle that some call " Z " angle. Something about the horse Breaking good and then falling back and then gaining in the last part of the race.

If you know the exact rules I would appreciate you telling me.

[karlskorner]

Z angle:

Improved position (lengths behind) from third call to finish after showing improvement between first and second call, than falling further off the pace between the second and third call.

Some handicappers consider the "double diagonal" as a clue that a horse is rounding into top form. It measures position in the field, not lengths behind.

Improvement from 2nd call of Second Prevous Race to 3rd call in First Previous Race to Final Call in Last Race

Improvement from 1st Call of Second Previous Race to 2nd Call in First in First Previous Race to 3rd call in Last Race. Known as a Double Diagonal, improving pattern in both Diagonals. Use it all the time.

Karl

[John]

Karlskoner

That is very interesting. I learned something today

Thank you my friend.

[karlskorner]

Your welcome. If you need an example I will try to find some for you from 11/7 PP's at CRc. Working on them now.

Karl

[John]

Karl,
That would be great. If you don't want to post you can e-mail to................... Jrmartino@yahoo.com

Thanks again

[hurrikane]

Thanks Karl,
I've heard of this but wasn't sure what the criteria used.
I assume there is a parameter you use for number of days between races (2nd back 3rd etc) you are looking for?

[karlskorner]

You are going to have to look at the PP's for CRC 11/7

1st. race #5 has diagonals (improves each call over last race)
3rd race #3 has a "Z" pattern
6th race #3 has a "Z" pattern
8th race #2 has diagonals
10th race #6 has diagonals

There are others, but this will give you some idea

Karl

[delayjf]

karl,
I remember reading about the "diagonals" is a small paper back book on handicapping that was written a while back, I'm thinking the 70's. The Author might have been Mcknight , but I'm not sure. Is this were you first read about diagonals yourself. I remember he claimed a very high win % using them as well. Interesting that you use them, your the only one I've heard that does. Is your win % as high as his??

[karlskorner]

I learned it from Les Conklin, can't remember the name of the book, it was a long time ago.

Can't talk about my win % or the "boys" from Texas will be all over my case again. As you read some of my past posts, it appears I do a lot of things that nobody else does.

Karl

[John]

Thank Karl

Is it interesting that these old nuggets of gold keep Poping up. I bet that if you are commented to your software program that in the back of your mind you scan for an old angle or two.

When looking at the past performances I subconsciously
look at the class the horse has been running with.I am looking for a horse thst was up in class last out and today drops below the class of the second race back. This angle works better if the horse finished in- the- money the second race back.

I got that from an old "pops and tips" dated back from the 60's

What's your favorite angle ? [ Golden nuget ]

[karlskorner]

In his book, Steve Fierro has 'The four quarters of racing". I have 4 corners and the above is one of the corners that fit into the puzzle. The "Golden nuggets" you speak of seem to last from year to year, while, from what I can gather from the posts on this Board, the Computer progams and books seem to loose favor in a short period of time. Until the next one comes along.

Karl

[ranchwest]

Karl,

Can you share the other three?

[GR1@HTR]

The pace handcappers version of the above...in Feet Per Seconds

Fr1..........Fr2..........Fr3
57.55......52.50.....54.23

[cj]

GR, rocajack,

Check out this old post. Horse had the same pattern.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=1161&highlight=inaugural+address

CJ

[karlskorner]

Two slanted / / lines between the last and 2nd race and a pair of ( ) on the last line and it stands out like a "sore thumb" on my PP's

Karl

[John]

Karl
I don't understand. In your link "Z Angles" you use a slanted line from the tird race back. Now your link is from he last two races, and a pair of {}... is that lengths gained ?

I am confused Karl.......Rocajak

[karlskorner]

I thought the "Z" was pretty well explained by GR1's example and CJ's post. The / / 's and ( )'s are for diagonals, when the 1st, 2nd & 3rd call in the 2nd line is improved on diagonal by the 2nd, 3rd and final call in the first line they get / /'s, when position is impoved in the 1st line it get ( )'s, the combination of the 2 is a horse worth considering. I use Papermate "RED" felt pens so they jump off the page for me.

The "Z" is in the last running line, he ran, he dropped back, he came again

Karl

[John]

Karl,
You are a good Guy . Thanks for explaining and making it simple. I just downloaded CRC file for tomorrow. I will try to
follow your guide lines.

[karlskorner]

If you like this "angle" the next we'll do is get you into "key races" where the real money is.

Karl

[John]

Karl
It is a good angle .I just found two plays at Suffolk downs One a"Z" and the other "diagonals" Both plays ran good 1st and a 2nd

karl, I am ready if you are. "KEY RACES" as I understand it are
multiple horses that ran in the same race together as runner ups . When more than one coming out of that race wins it is considered a KEY RACE and all horses that ran in that race should be played in thier next out.

ROCAJAK

[delayjf]

Karl,
Believe it or not, I still have the book. I reread it about one year ago or so, but felt that it did not apply in todays racing as horseS don't seem to be raced into shape much anymore, or so I thought. Will have to take another look at that. It is a unique way to pick up horses about to improve in their next race. Do you apply any pace ratings to the moves or simply take them on face value? Never used Key races very much perhaps you might expand a bit there as well.

Jeff

[karlskorner]

While "everybody" else is doing pars, speed ratings, variants, profiles, fractions, modeling, data bases, computer programs etc. etc. etc. you have to look for another road. When you come to the "fork" take it.

Karl

[John]

Hi Karl,
You certainly have an eye for spotting these patterns. I found myself starring at the #3 in the 3nd race at Calder before the "Z angle" matarelized in my mind. The #3 in the 6th race also was hard to see "Z" at first glance, I can understand how this pattern can be over looked. The Diagonals are plain to see.

It is a good angle .I just found two plays at Suffolk downs One a"Z" and the other "diagonals" Both plays ran good 1st and a 2nd

karl, I am ready if you are. "KEY RACES" as I understand it are
multiple horses that ran in the same race together as runner ups . When more than one coming out of that race wins it is considered a KEY RACE and all horses that ran in that race should be played in thier next out.

Please correct me if I am wrong...Thanks

ROCAJAK

[delayjf]

Karl,
If you are interested in discussing diagonals and key races off line, post your e mail address, always open to new ideas I have not tried.

[Larry Hamilton]

Illich, How to Pick Winners, pg 87, mentions a derivative of this "Z" he had been playing since 1941. He went so far as to claim invention of the concept. He also claims his biggest victory was on such a horse. He called it "irregular patterns".


==============================

Every once in a while this concept of "Key races" comes up. I am fairly certain I can make my data base spit out key races, but guys, I gotta tell you, I did this once and the results were at best, inconclusive.

There is a utility, however, if all you want to know is how strong was the PAST race.

If you would like to know how to do this with your Access DB, email me, I'll show your how.

[GR1@HTR]

The ultimate move in the last race was by the #1 in R2. May not be good enuf to win though or catch the #2 if he repeats...

[Amazin]

Karlskorner

This post may cause some controversy and I mean no disrespect but I think it's time for a reality check regarding this z pattern.I am aware of this angle and many others including the Key race angle.There are many angles.I have an angle that picked Valponi and Sarava on top.However no angle can stand by itself.ITS ALL RELATIVE.For example,If the horse qualifying for the Z pattern qualified in dirt sprints and todays race is a Turf Route,I can't see it especially if he has no Turf breeding.Or if the Z pattern horse is doing a swan dive in class for no apparent reason off a good race'I can't see it.In any Angle,the horse in question must be cleared of negative angles.Determining what type of Z horses do well and what type don't is where the real work and refinement come in to make a positive R.O.I.for this or any other angle.If this angle can produce a positive R.O.I.blindly as a stand alone angle tell me about it.I haven't seen one yet.And if it can't ,what's the point of playing it,unless you refine it.

[trying2win]

Amazin:

Those were excellent points you made!

[delayjf]

Not that he needs anybody to defind him, but I'm willing to take a stab while I'm on line and he's not.

AMAZING
You bring up some very valid points, blindly following any angle will get you killed in this game. In this case I always ask, if the angle is pointing to a wake up performance for a particular horse, does he show a race in his PPs that is competitive with this field. If so, check the odds and consider the wager, if not move on. In the case of lightly races horses you have to make a call as often they are capable of running a new top at anytime and the improvement can sometime be as much as a 20-30 point swing in the horses beyers. I'm willing to bet he asks the same questions you've brought up, common sense would dictate that.

[karlskorner]

Just got home from the track and read your post. In no way did I mean to imply that "Z's" and "Diagonals" were "stand alone" angles. I did state that they were one of the corners in the puzzle.

Let's review today at CRC. There were several "diagonals" which paid $27.80, $5.60, $5.20 and $13.60, would I have played them if that's all the information I had,. of course not. The #5 horse in the 3rd race was one of three "key race" horses I had today, he paid $27.80, the other 2 were in the 5th race, since I had to play both I wagered on the #1, which paid $4.40 and perfected the #1/8 which paid $20.60. If Larry Hamilton (and others) can't get the "key races" together, doesn't mean that I can't.

Agree with you, the player who wagers only on "angles" is in a lot of trouble. It's best to have a lot of information before you put your money down, most of mine is in my head.

I had a "nice" day.

Karl

P.S. I take no offense at your post, I have a lot of people tell me that certain things can't be done. I picked up and extra $10.00 from a smart ass that told me the #5 couldn't win the 3rd

[ridersup]

Nice call on race 2. The 1 horse took loads of early money and became the favorite. I went with 1st time starters 6 owned and trained by a friend of mine and the 8 whose trainer had a $6.65 roi with firsters. Unfortunatley I had the 2 over the 6,8.

[Tom]

I agree that using angles blindy might not be a good idea, but they do give me a reason to go back and use a pace line further back, when the horse ran well (as I might think he will run back to that good race today).

[trying2win]

Karlskorner:

Congratulations on your great day at CRC. I like the way you displayed (what one racing author used to call) "a rugged individualism").

The racing author went on to say something like... "The racetrack player who displays a rugged individualism, has a strong opinion about horse in a race and will bet that horse no matter what the cynics, naysayers, so-called experts, and well-meaning friends will say about his selection".

How many times have we heard our colleagues at the track bemoan stories like... "Well I liked the #10 horse in the 7th race at our local track today. He won and paid $47.20 on the nose. I was going to bet him, but my friend Ed said to me... "Tim, how can you like that dog, he hasn't won a race for the last 5 months!. So I figured that Ed must be right, because he has been going to the races for 10 more years than I have, so I didn't bet the #10 horse."? ...BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

[GR1@HTR]

Hi Ridersup. I don't know if you can call a $3.40 winner a good call but thanks anyways. I keyed the 2 and 1 in a P3 along w/ the #6 as a backup. I made notes that #6 had solid breeding...Was kinda surprised how much money was on the #1 and that the #2 went off at 5-1.

My stone cold lock longshot of the day was the #4 in Race9. Was hoping for a speed duel, but the #7 took it wire to wire quite easily w/o challengers...Had 8 P3's with him and 4 DD's on it and that put a damper on my day. Fortunately as a backup, I was able to hit a back up DD with the #7 in the ticket. Still lost $10 to $30 for the day....

Good thing is I'm still tickin and if I can make it to tomorrow there will be another chance to redeem myself...

[Larry Hamilton]

Though I didnt mean it, it is easy to interpret what i said to be "If I cant do it, it cant be done". I have remarked on this many times in here in the past, and it is uncomfortable to think that what I said looked like that. My apologies.

[John]

Karl,

Would you please tell me your definition of the "Key Race" or at least look at my last thread on the "Key Race" and let me know if I am in the ball park. I only know one version.There must be many....thanks

[karlskorner]

Two days ago I upgraded to Outlook Express 6. Spent 1/2 hour last night putting Key Races on your private mail box. When I went to send I was told I had to reregister, lost everything. Reregistered this morning. Wierd things have been happening the past 2 days, went to download PP's from BRIS and a message pops up from Microsoft that I should be leary of the file.
Been getting messages that there are errors and should report them to Microsoft. Will try again this evening.

Karl

[John]

Hi Karl,
I appreciate all you are doing.Sorry you lost the work.
My E-mail address is on the 5th link from the top of this post.

Rocajack

[karlskorner]

If I knew anything about Computers I would be earning my "bowl of rice" elsewhere. I am not going to E-Mail, rather, I am using the Private message box below.

Karl

[John]

Hi Karl
It's not the "bowl of rice" It's learning to eat with chop sticks. That is my problem

By the way Karl , Going over yesterday 6th race at CRC, There were 4 horses that came out of the same race. 5,6,7,9, The rcae was won by # 5 and # 9 was second. exacta $77.00. I was wondering if that was a key race.

Roc

[karlskorner]

It "was" a key race. The winner paid $17.60. In my nessage tonight I will explain how you handle 4 keys from the same race.
$27.80 key horse in the 3rd, $17.60 key horse in the 6th. I told you I had a "nice'" day.

Karl

[John]

Karl,
May all your days be just as nice. You work hard at what you do.

I will be looking forward to tonight.

Rocajack

[delayjf]

If you don't mind, I'd be interested in your approach using key races and diagonols for that matter. Would you mind sending your message to me as well? Thanks

delayjf

[hurrikane]

Well, ok Karl. I read and respect everything you have say. So, shoot me your Key race info if you wouldn't mind. You using the same parameters as Davidowitz...tracking horses out of the same race that won or ran well next out?

I"ve always liked this angle. Sometimes it's tough to get a price..then again..sometimes it's not.

By the way..nice day at the track.

[John]

Karl, if this keeps up write a book..

ROCAJACK

[karlskorner]

This is how I got into trouble last night. 2 days ago I installed Outlook Express 6, at the insistance of my provider (Bell South)since then I am having small problems, one of them was that when I tried to send a Private message to Rocajack and Delayif, I was informed I had to "reregister", blew a 1/2 hour of time and lost everything. The best I can do is send a private message to Rocajack and maybe he can figure out to transfer it.

Karl

[John]

Karl, No problem I can do that.

Rocajack

[karlskorner]

I sent it

[delayjf]

Rojack
My e-mail address is delayjf2002@yahoo.com. Thanks for the help,

Karl
thanks for the info

Jeff