Something I thought I would never see......

[Milleruszk]

Angel and Johnny V trying to explain to Beyer that there is more to riding a horse than he thinks........... :lol:

There is an explanation of the photo at:

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/RACING/NEWS/Press+Releases/Details/Beyer.htm

[Tom]

He's verifying a speed figure. :lol:

[cj]

They should let Mike Smith practice on that thing for a few months.

[Indulto]

They should let Mike Smith practice on that thing for a few months.Apparently Smith was too busy "equisizing" Oprah Winnie up North. ;)

After all his critical verbiage regarding jockeys and Gulfstream Park, it's nice to see there are no hard feelings among the parties.

[cj]

Apparently Smith was too busy "equisizing" Oprah Winnie up North. ;)

After all his critical verbiage regarding jockeys and Gulfstream Park, it's nice to see there are no hard feelings among the parties.

Have you watched Smith ride on the inner? It has been absolutely dreadful. He is an automatic toss, and still riding horses that are taking plenty of money. If you bet him in 2007 on all his mounts, you are getting about 50 cents on the dollar. I'd rather invest in some Magna stock.

It is a dangerous profession, no doubt, and Mike Smith rides it just that way these days.

[Indulto]

Have you watched Smith ride on the inner? It has been absolutely dreadful. He is an automatic toss, and still riding horses that are taking plenty of money. If you bet him in 2007 on all his mounts, you are getting about 50 cents on the dollar. I'd rather invest in some Magna stock.

It is a dangerous profession, no doubt, and Mike Smith rides it just that way these days.So why is he still getting mounts?

[cj]

So why is he still getting mounts?

How should I know, or even care? Seriously.

Are you saying he isn't terrible?

[Indulto]

How should I know, or even care? Seriously.For someone who doesn't care, how did his name even turn up in this thread, and with such obvious passion?
Are you saying he isn't terrible? If the horse is a contender conditioned by a competent trainer, I'm not going to toss it because Smith is riding. He is NOT on my "Don't bet under any circumstances" list which I will not divulge publicly. ;)

[cj]

For someone who doesn't care, how did his name even turn up in this thread, and with such obvious passion? [/font]
If the horse is a contender conditioned by a competent trainer, I'm not going to toss it because Smith is riding. He is NOT on my "Don't bet under any circumstances" list which I will not divulge publicly. ;)

Come on, surely your comprehension skills are better than that. Of course I asked "How should I know, or even care?" in response to your question about his getting mounts. Obviously, this is a question I can't answer, and even if I could, it is pretty much irrelevant.

All that matters is that he stinks right now, and he is riding very scared. If he isn't on your list, he should be.

[Indulto]

... All that matters is that he stinks right now, and he is riding very scared.Of course he's scared..that he might be taken to the wrong hospital. :lol: If he isn't on your list, he should be.I didn't buy a Mercury, either. ;)

[xciceroguy]

The man is a genius!!!

[Stevie Belmont]

From this particular photo, Angel could very well be disputing a Beyer number that was given to one of JV's mounts.

[cj]

Another stellar ride in the feature by Smith today, at 8 to 5 no less. CC Lopez of all people gave him a lesson.

[Indulto]

Another stellar ride in the feature by Smith today, at 8 to 5 no less. CC Lopez of all people gave him a lesson.The chart said Smith's horse "stumbled badly at the start."

Lopez's horse won by daylight and he had won a race earlier on the card.

What was the lesson here?

[cj]

One knows how to get a horse out of the gate on a speed favoring track, while the other has no interest in doing so. I wouldn't judge rides by chart comments.

[Indulto]

One knows how to get a horse out of the gate on a speed favoring track, while the other has no interest in doing so. I wouldn't judge rides by chart comments.I wouldn't judge rider Smith by the comments of practitioners of mind-reading. ;)

[cj]

I wouldn't judge rider Smith by the comments of practitioners of mind-reading. ;)

I don't have to read minds, just watch him ride. He is awful. I'll end on this note, no need to pursue this further. I hope punters continue to pound his horses.

[andicap]

He had a decent January, but he's having an abysmal February. I suspect a lot of the slump has had to do with the greater intensity of the speed bias this month (see below.)

In his last 37 mounts since Feb. 1, he has won just 2 at an ROI of 23 cents on the dollar!!! :faint:

This does NOT include today, but Feb. 1 through yesterday.
He's finished 1st or 2nd just 19% of the time.

True he's not getting great horses to ride. Just 8 of them have been favorites or 2nd favorites and he won on one of them.

But he's only 2 for 15 on horses 5-1 (56 cent return on the dollars) and under, winning at 5-2 and 7-2, so he's 0-22 on anything 6-1 and above. Average at AQI on these horses since Feb. 1 is 26% winners and a .90 ROI on the dollar.
That's an IV on the ROI of 0.62, pretty bad.

In January, tho, he won at 17% overall for an ROI of 1.40 on the dollar. Was 1st or 2nd at 26% at a 25-cent loss.
Lopez was 1st or 2nd on 31% of his mounts but at a 31-cent loss for win-place. Won 15% at a 40-cent loss.
Dominquez won 27% in Jan. for a nine-cent loss to win and a 20-cent loss for win-place. That's still good since he beat the takeout for win.


On favorites Smith was 0-5 and 2-11 2nd favorites at a loss of 33 cents.
He had $25, 23 and $22 winners and did about the same in sprints and routes. (sample too low)

One thing CJ said appears to be true. Smith is NOT getting out of the gate. Of the eight horses he rode ranked 1st or 2nd in the 1st fraction, none of them won. His winners were mainly on stalkers and closers.

[Indulto]

I don't have to read minds, just watch him ride. He is awful. I'll end on this note, no need to pursue this further. I hope punters continue to pound his horses.I’m all for that sentiment. You’ve apparently discovered a factor that works for you and I’m sure that many here will put your observations to work for them. My responses were motivated by the not infrequent need of successful and influential players including yourself to criticize jockeys individually and/or collectively with regard to a number of issues.

The further away from the live action and participants a horseplayer gets, the easier it is to lose respect for the human factor involved. Jockeys are not interchangeable robots, but live beings with the courage to get on top of unpredictable and/or fragile horses and attempt to influence their performance while competing in close quarters with each other in situations where a miscalculation or nuance misreading could be fatal.

And more than courage is involved. The gift of quick reflexes and an ability to “read” and anticipate a horse’s resources from moment-to-moment and react accordingly at any stage of the proceedings is required. Equicizers are fine for fans and jockey critics, but only a klutz like myself is likely to get injured riding one.

I’ve never met Mike Smith although he has walked passed me many times at SA and HOL on his way to the paddock. (The last jockey I asked for an autograph was Hedley Woodhouse --and he did -- at Saratoga in the ‘60s.) Smith has ridden a fair number of winners for me in the past (including the recent stakes race at LRL).

I have to assume there is no lack of courage involved with any of the jockeys who get up on cheap race horses for more than a few minutes of icy wind blasts in that paradise of winter racing known as AQU. Smith obviously hasn’t forgotten how to break a horse from the gate there as he won with front-runner Oprah Winnie at AQU in her race prior to her win at LRL.

Is he as likely to risk horse and limb as a younger, less experienced rider? No. Is he as likely to get a live mount as he was in the past? No. Can any jockey prevent a horse from stumbling at the start? I don’t think so. Is he as bad as you feel it necessary to proclaim to all who would listen in Cyberspace? Probably not.

[PaceAdvantage]

Jockeys are not interchangeable robots, but live beings with the courage to get on top of unpredictable and/or fragile horses and attempt to influence their performance while competing in close quarters with each other in situations where a miscalculation or nuance misreading could be fatal.

Anyone who has been around the game more than 3 seconds understands all the sentiments you wrote above, but why on Earth should this excuse them from receiving valid criticism for a job NOT well done? That's the position you seem to be advocating here, and I don't really understand why that is.

[JustRalph]

Anyone who has been around the game more than 3 seconds understands all the sentiments you wrote above, but why on Earth should this excuse them from receiving valid criticism for a job NOT well done? That's the position you seem to be advocating here, and I don't really understand why that is.

I gotta say I am with PA on this one. Jocks get damn near nothing when it comes to criticism of their performance. If Derek Jeter or A-Rod blows a week or month and hit poorly they get killed in the press. The jocks get nothing............I would have to say that in spite of betting on Baseball games, Jocks blow more money on a regular basis than any baseball player.

[Indulto]

Anyone who has been around the game more than 3 seconds understands all the sentiments you wrote above, but why on Earth should this excuse them from receiving valid criticism for a job NOT well done? That's the position you seem to be advocating here, and I don't really understand why that is.Understood, perhaps, but frequently ignored or forgotten. If you think questioning intent is a valid criticism without far more justification than has been presented up to now, then why in Heaven are people betting enough on Smith's mounts to ever make them the favorite?

Look, my frustration with the Torpedeaux is well-documented, but I haven't stopped betting on his mounts (fortunately) and I don't question his intelligence, motivation, or courage in the process. This is still HORSE racing and although all the ways there are to lose a race are yet to be documented, apparently blaming the jockey alone is ready for prime time. ;)

Since when is the jockey the prime handicapping factor anyway?

[Tom]

Since when is the jockey the prime handicapping factor anyway?

When he sucs. :lol:

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by Indulto


Since when is the jockey the prime handicapping factor anyway? When he sucs. :lol: Yeah, well I’d like to see YOU at AQU without a throat lozenge. ;)

[cj]

Understood, perhaps, but frequently ignored or forgotten. If you think questioning intent is a valid criticism without far more justification than has been presented up to now, then why in Heaven are people betting enough on Smith's mounts to ever make them the favorite?


Long memories, and a lack of the proper information to make informed decisions.

Since when is the jockey the prime handicapping factor anyway?

Anytime that is where the public is making a mistake. If I posted a stat the the #1 post in sprints is returning 23% on the dollar, all would be saying wow, great stat. For some reason because a human is involved, you think I have a personal vendetta against the guy. I don't of course. I'm a gambler looking for an edge. Right now, he is a big edge. Not only can his horses be dismissed, but you can also discount them as being a pace factor, which further aids in the analysis of a race.

I've watched enough races in my life to know when a jockey is riding scared, and not just "cautiously". Mike Smith is riding scared.

[Indulto]

Long memories, and a lack of the proper information to make informed decisions.Makes sense.Anytime that is where the public is making a mistake. If I posted a stat the the #1 post in sprints is returning 23% on the dollar, all would be saying wow, great stat.For sure.For some reason because a human is involved, you think I have a personal vendetta against the guy. I don't of course. I'm a gambler looking for an edge. Right now, he is a big edge. Not only can his horses be dismissed, but you can also discount them as being a pace factor, which further aids in the analysis of a race.No, I'm sure you don't. But what IS your motivation for giving up your "edge" by stating your opinion as if it were fact supported solely by an impression based on your experience?
I've watched enough races in my life to know when a jockey is riding scared, and not just "cautiously". Mike Smith is riding scared.And I've read enough posts on message boards (my own included ;)) to know when a poster has failed to muster FACTS sufficient to convince me that he's right. I doubt you'd be any less skeptical if the positions were reversed.

[Skanoochies]

andicap.....Interesting stats you show for Mike Smith. If it is not too much trouble could you do the same for Tyler Baze if you have a program that can do it easily? This is one jock I am afraid to bet at the moment, as he seems to be really struggling. :confused: