Another Pace Question

[AAcoolguy]

I have read "The Power of Early Speed" and have figured the Klein speed points, my question is what is the difference between the Klien speed points abd a pace figure.
Thanks.

[sjk]

This one's too easy.

A pace figure can help you win money.

[cj]

A pace figure is a measurement of one race. Klein ratings are based on the last few (three?) races. I also don't think Klein is attempting to measure how fast a horse went, just position, though it has been a while since I read the book.

[AAcoolguy]

Yes you are right , the Klein points are figured using the best two of the last three races and does a pretty good job of detecting early speed. Thanks.

[AwolAtPA]

A pace figure is a measurement of one race. Klein ratings are based on the last few (three?) races. ---

well, I would think that a rating (Klein) based on three races would have a good chance of finding SOME good bets that a one race (PACE) rating would not find. However, some HTR Pace figures are based on two or three lines depending on the selected Pace Line mode.

Could someone with Klein experience, post an example?

I expect there is more than one example because I know (sometimes) Speed wins when Pace pickers are left rubbing their feet-per-second.

duane

[sjk]

I didn't really make the case against the Klein Speed points in my post (nor did CJ who obviously know a lot more about pace figures than he is letting on) so I am back.

I found a copy of the Klein book at my doorstep one day courtesy of one of the online betting services I use. It was kind of them but although I tried I did not finish the book.

There were no test results.

If I had a day or two to kill I could test the Klein methodology on my PC for all the races over the last 5 years or so. Obviously the fact that DRF has plenty of resources to do the same in no time flat tells me that the test results were so poor that they hit the cutting room floor.

If there was anything useful in the last part of the book please let me know. I didn't make it that far.

[Kelso]

A pace figure is a measurement of one race. Klein ratings are based on the last few (three?) races.



Is the difference between "pace" and "speed" generally a matter of one race as opposed to several? I've been confused by (seemingly) varying uses of the term "speed," but presently understand it to represent a full-race performance while "pace" speaks to specific portions of a race. Does "speed" actually cover several different concepts?

Thank you.

[cj]

Is the difference between "pace" and "speed" generally a matter of one race as opposed to several? I've been confused by (seemingly) varying uses of the term "speed," but presently understand it to represent a full-race performance while "pace" speaks to specific portions of a race. Does "speed" actually cover several different concepts?

Thank you.

I would say you have it exactly right. Pace is one or more segments of a race, while speed is generally the final time of a race.

Ratings which combine different performance are a whole separate thing.

[Kelso]

I would say you have it exactly right. Pace is one or more segments of a race, while speed is generally the final time of a race.

Ratings which combine different performance are a whole separate thing.


Thanks very much, CJ. I'm gonna have to speak the language a lot more before I feel at home with it. This helps a lot.

[46zilzal]

While it is not dextroamphetamine sulfate: speed is quickness, akin to what happens early in a contest. Pace is the distribution of energy by the participants that are involved with clicking the teletimer.

I don't think I ever heard speed attributed to a closer.......

[Kelso]

speed is quickness, akin to what happens early in a contest. Pace is the distribution of energy by the participants that are involved with clicking the teletimer.

Awwww, just when I thought I wuz gettin' the hang of it! :confused: :bang:

[cj]

Awwww, just when I thought I wuz gettin' the hang of it! :confused: :bang:

While I would not say 46 is wrong, I will say few people use the terms the way he does.

When you asked, I assumed you meant in regards to figures, ie pace figures and speed figures. If so, what I said sticks.

Of course, speed is often attributed to closers. It is usually just called late speed. The "speed" 46 refers to is usually called "early speed".

[Cratos]

Speed of a horse race simply stated is the rate of change of position. That is for an example in a 6 furlong race with a final time of one minute, ten seconds would be the rate of change of a horses’s position from when it hit the timer at the start of the race to when it hit the timer at the end of the race.

Pace is almost the same except it is the rate of change (sometimes called “internal fractions) during race. In general the final time is a function of the pace, but because a horse race time curve is typically downward sloping, the longer the race the less impact the pace curve and the greater the stamina curve.

[46zilzal]

Speed: Dr. William Quirin established that horses UP close simply do better at the end: over and over and over on dirt.

Speed is being in contention with not too much left to do.

Sartin's group, Pirco, found that for every unit of energy lost BEFORE the second call, it takes AT LEAST two units of energy to make up late to be at the same place. At many a speed favoring oval, or any track less than 8 furlongs, that ratio can go as high as three to one and four to one when it is wet: the "clean silks syndrome."

I have followed entire meetings where any horse ranked higher than 5th at the 2nd call got up at the wire less than 10% of the time. Of course that is one of the reasons I stayed with those courses but there are simply LOTS OF THEM.

[classhandicapper]

Sartin's group, Pirco, found that for every unit of energy lost BEFORE the second call, it takes AT LEAST two units of energy to make up late to be at the same place. At many a speed favoring oval, or any track less than 8 furlongs, that ratio can go as high as three to one and four to one when it is wet: the "clean silks syndrome."

I have followed entire meetings where any horse ranked higher than 5th at the 2nd call got up at the wire less than 10% of the time. Of course that is one of the reasons I stayed with those courses but there are simply LOTS OF THEM.

This is not a criticism.

It's more of a comment indicating I do not know all the answers.

One of the problems I have with this kind of thing is that it assumes that horses are all very similar or that some of the horses in the middle and back of the back were there because of running style and not because they simply weren't as good to begin with. IMO, it's not all about energy distribution or running style etc.... Sometimes position, fractions etc....are purely a function of ability.

I have a whole bunch of formulas I use to give me a better understanding of pace and the inter-relationship between pace and final time, the inter-relationship between position and winning, but they invariably aren't applicable to all horses equally. Throw in the complications related to accurate measurement, and it gets more convoluded.

[46zilzal]

One of the problems I have with this kind of thing is that it assumes that horses are all very similar or that some of the horses in the middle and back of the back were there because of running style and not because they simply weren't as good to begin with. IMO, it's not all about energy distribution or running style etc.... Sometimes position, fractions etc....are purely a function of ability.



Horses (MOST of them) when in form, have a surprisingly narrow ability scope. Horses simply RUN. It is that simple. VERY few are Forego's who could run up close in 1:20 3/5 one week and then come from the clouds in 1:59 2/5 under top weight two weeks later. Their inability to adapt to differing pace strucutures is part of the reason that many don't run for the big bucks.

Once you keep it simple, it becomes much easier. Horses simply run to their ability and instrinsic style. When they meet others that have greater velocity of better adaptation to the pace today, they don't do well. If they match up to the pace structure, their chances improve.....

I thank Malcolm Gladwell for this point of view.

[Greyfox]

I would say you have it exactly right. Pace is one or more segments of a race, while speed is generally the final time of a race.

Ratings which combine different performance are a whole separate thing.

CJ's definitions are the most commonly accepted among handicapping authors. He's got it right guys. When Beyer talks of "Speed" he's talking of a total speed rating. When Sartin talks of Pace he's talking of an early segment's velocity. Of course some authors speak of "early speed" but they are still doing it in the context of the over-riding concepts that CJ has presented.

[Robert Fischer]

I think that generally speaking, most of the best horses can run at on or within striking range of the pace while rating (running within his limits)...

I think it is very rare when an un-rateable horse can consistently win from the front at much distance or class with a full out extended sprint. The ones that can are either super-horses, or one race wonders(inconsistent without extreme bias, "bounce" victims etc..)

Likewise it is rare that a horse can consistently win from well off the pace.
Those that can, will (consistently) show much superior final pace figures. And may even need to out-class the field.

You can not dismiss a horse for running 25/50 fractions if he was clearly rating near the pace or confident that the un-ratable longshot that was making the pace will not be a threat. Prior races and even works can offer clues that this horse does or does not have ability to run faster.

Be wary of the horse that leads at every call in blazing fractions and is stepping up in class or distance.

[46zilzal]

Be wary of the horse that leads at every call in blazing fractions and is stepping up in class or distance.
Stepping Up in this "man made" class does NOT automatically indicate that the horse will be up against anything like what it had overcome. It all depends on the horses entered against him. 21.2 44.2 will beat a lot of horses no matter their "man made' class levels. Horses have this great habit of just running: they don't KNOW who they are running against.

[Cratos]

Stepping Up in this "man made" class does NOT automatically indicate that the horse will be up against anything like what it had overcome. It all depends on the horses entered against him. 21.2 44.2 will beat a lot of horses no matter their "man made' class levels. Horses have this great habit of just running: they don't KNOW who they are running against.


Statistical ranking of racehorses has become popular in today’s handicapping, but this model feeds a superficial understanding of handicapping. Good handicapping is demonstrated by many things, some quantifiable; but some of the most important elements are not quantifiable. These include class; training that prepares and disciplines the horse for the task at hand; and the right horse-jockey relationship. While statistical ranking of horses do say something about the horse(s) ability in a race, and every handicapper wants their horse to have a high statistical ranking, this is only one aspect of the equation.

[Robert Fischer]

With class I maybe should have used the word "quality". I wouldn't stress the race name or purse or even the pars as much as the quality level.

[Tom]

I disagree class level arae man-made.
Horses do not have X ability and that is it. They start at x-9, improve to x-4, x, then as they get older, x-5, x-10........Secretariat did not go from MSW to the GR1 classics.
Pace is a great way to gage development of a three year old. They need seaoning, experrience. Some go on to greatness, others go on sale.
Recognizing and being able to quntitfy that trip is class handicapping.

That horse that dropped way down and broke down causing endless discussion at Aqueduct recently - a good example of a negative class drop. Now matter how good it's paceline looked, I made it one of those automatic throwouts on class alone. He was jsut to clasy to be real for that race.

I find a healthy partnership of class and pace evaluation pays good dividends. Not so much with older clainmers, but still it is factor to condider. Hoprses don't magically speed up when dropped in class, but a class drop can be a key to go past recent races and take a better line.

[classhandicapper]

Once you keep it simple, it becomes much easier. Horses simply run to their ability and instrinsic style. When they meet others that have greater velocity of better adaptation to the pace today, they don't do well. If they match up to the pace structure, their chances improve......

I agree with you, but I think there are more complicated exceptions within the pace, position, final time interrelationships than you seem to be indicating.

[46zilzal]

I agree with you, but I think there are more complicated exceptions within the pace, position, final time interrelationships than you seem to be indicating.

Once I BLINKED (a la Malcolm Gladwell) and made the mantra K.I.S.S. the game became a lot easier, more fun and more profitable.

[46zilzal]

I disagree class level arae man-made.
Horses do not have X ability and that is it.

Yes they do. We often do not see it fully expressed in the developing youngster, but, and Bernardini was a great example, they PROJECT it before expressing it. Break down on not, I thought that one would have simply run away from the Derby winner on the speed favoring Baltimore oval......His race previous projected both his style and continued improvement. That one just had not reached his potential "X."

[Tom]

If they dont have it to use at will, they don't have it.
Secretariat could NEVER duplicate his Belmont at will. Form/condition modify operational class.
Horses do not run at a set performance level every race. They are alive, not mechanical. Class handciapping is being able to predict what situations will allow the horse to run closer his potential. Third off a layoff, signs of life last out, back class (speed) is a very powerful ange - the horse is fresh, healed, back in form, he is more likely to run back to his potential than just before the layoff.

[Charlie D]

Hi all

An interesting thread.

I believe horses do have a class ceiling or X ability, of course there are exceptions like some of the horses mentioned, but this is because truely top class horses are rare and their class ceiling or X ability is never tested to it's limit against horses of the same X ability

[shanta]

Break down on not, I thought that one would have simply run away from the Derby winner on the speed favoring Baltimore oval......His race previous projected both his style and continued improvement. That one just had not reached his potential "X."

Barbaro would have smoked bernie. Too much of an athlete and was a PROVEN fighter.

My opine but we will never know
Richie

[46zilzal]

Barbaro would have smoked bernie. Too much of an athlete and was a PROVEN fighter.

My opine but we will never know

Do you want the card so you can run it through? See what you get. Not even in the top three..

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah, we all know, Barbaro sucked. :rolleyes:

Barbaro would have been hard pressed to beat a group of $12,000 platers on the Big A inner had he not injured himself and subsequently died. :rolleyes:

That whole undefeated thing and monster Derby victory was just a giant fluke. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Next thing you'll tell me is that your program predicted he'd break down steps out of the gate because he was scared to death of running against Bernardini and the two other unnamed horses who, in your opinion, "had his number." The minute he looked those other three in the eye, his leg immediately snapped from pure fear. Yup...that's the ticket....

[46zilzal]

Yeah, we all know, Barbaro sucked. :rolleyes:


Next thing you'll tell me is that your program predicted he'd break down steps out of the gate because he was scared to death of running against Bernardini and the two other unnamed horses who, in your opinion, "had his number." The minute he looked those other three in the eye, his leg immediately snapped from pure fear. .
I said one thing and nothing more: On that day in that race the pace numbers did not rank your hero higher than third. I bet according to what that data supported: Bernardini. No more, no less.

[cj]

In my opinion, any software that did not have Barbaro ranked in the top 3 in any category for the Preakess is seriously flawed.

[Greyfox]

I also bet Bernardini on Preakness Day. The connections were solid. The odds were long. A value overlay play. Clearly Barbaro was the horse to beat on anyone's card. Breaking through the gate and the subsequent fleeting inspection may have played more of a role here than it's been given. Had the race ran without incident we may have seen one of the greatest stretch battles of modern times. But it was not to be. To hypothesize about what might have happened and who might have won detracts from both of these horses. The fact is : what happened happened. Bernardini won. Let's not detract from that great win.

[Greyfox]

Stepping Up in this "man made" class does NOT automatically indicate that the horse will be up against anything like what it had overcome. It all depends on the horses entered against him. 21.2 44.2 will beat a lot of horses no matter their "man made' class levels. Horses have this great habit of just running: they don't KNOW who they are running against.

You and I are on the same page when it comes to the first two sentences above. I would say that 90 % of the time they will hold.
However, James Quinn and others have said:
"Class Laughs at Pace."
Over the years, I have seen several instances wherein I have predicted that my horses had the early foot and the stamina to take a race. Yet, for whatever reason, they fail to show that characteristic speed and stamina when placed against proven G1 horses.
It's almost "as if" they know that they are in the company of Royalty and freeze. I'm not a horse. But I've observed "pecking orders" among horses.
Once again you are making a sweeping statement that demands empirical support. You said :
"they don't KNOW who they are running against."
Do you know that for sure? Is there any possibility that equines might be able to "communicate" or "talk" beyond what "horse whisperers" are telling us.
I think that they do know who they are running against. And when a top class animal tells a cheaper class animal "bugger off," they seemingly do.
However, I will agree with you on 90 % of what you said for 90% of races.

[46zilzal]

In my opinion, any software that did not have Barbaro ranked in the top 3 in any category for the Preakess is seriously flawed.
You misunderstand: the software also has an odds line that compares probability with pace line evaluation. Those two worked together to downgrade the wager...

[46zilzal]

Over the years, I have seen several instances wherein I have predicted that my horses had the early foot and the stamina to take a race. Yet, for whatever reason, they fail to show that characteristic speed and stamina when placed against proven G1 horses.

Since those animals make up less than 1% of all out there running, that is not a very wide-ranging statement.

It is the ADAPTABILITY of the better ones that make them better. Others might call that class, I just refer to it as being able to adapt to whatever pace they get...

[classhandicapper]

You and I are on the same page when it comes to the first two sentences above. I would say that 90 % of the time they will hold.
However, James Quinn and others have said:
"Class Laughs at Pace."
Over the years, I have seen several instances wherein I have predicted that my horses had the early foot and the stamina to take a race. Yet, for whatever reason, they fail to show that characteristic speed and stamina when placed against proven G1 horses.


In my view, especially at the highest levels of racing, horses often have levels of ability that aren't easily measured by pace and speed figures alone.

[Good4Now]

Amen to the Above!
I recall a furious duel thru the stretch when License Fee just REFUSED to let another horse get on even terms with her...
And regarding early pace and ability...Why is it in so many races after the field has sorted itself out going up the Backstretch we see them bunch up ,sometimes in very close order, as they come off the turn?